Tipo y función de la Biblioteca Sara “Coca” Luján

Region DELTA is a hub of specialty and fine chemicals industry. According to regional statistics, one European patent for every 50 research- ers was granted every year in the past decade. A consortium of two universities and of five companies has started a feasibility study for a new research infrastructure in molecular chemistry. The infrastructure is envisaged to employ 150 researchers for the entire time horizon. The baseline forecast of the annual average number of patents expected is 3, conservatively based on the past track record in the region. According to data retrieved from a meta-analysis carried out by the academics of the two universities, the median market value of patents in the field of molecular chemistry is EUR 400,000. Moreover, according to statistics on patent citations retrieved from databases maintained by similar facilities, the median number of backward and forward citations in the molecular chemistry filed is respectively 10 and 15. Assuming that the externalities are linear in the number of citations, the new patent benefits from ten previous discoveries, and will benefit fifteen future ones. Hence, the yearly social value of patents would be EUR 3 million, as follows:

Since the number and the value of patents are highly uncertain ex-ante, probability distributions are considered instead of punctual values. The annual number of patents according to interviewed experts can have a discrete probability distribution taking value of 2,3 or 4, while the

value of a patent can have a normal distribution with mean EUR 400,000 and standard deviation of EUR 150,00047_{. Also the ratio between}

cited and citing patents is uncertain, and a triangular distribution (minimum value = 0.5; modal value = 1.5; and maximum value = 2.5) is as- sumed. Using a Monte Carlo simulation technique these distribution assumptions can be combined and the conditional expected total benefit of patents estimated.

5.3 Start-ups and spin-offs

The establishment of start-ups and spin-offs can be one of the intended objectives of innovation infrastructures, as it is for incu- bator centres. However, this establishment can also be a side effect of fundamental and applied research infrastructures, such as university laboratories. Whatever their origin, the objective of start-ups and spin-offs is ultimately to develop and commercial- ise new products, services, and technologies.

The benefits produced by a RDI infrastructure to start-ups and spin-offs can be related to either the establishment of new firms or (and) an increase in the survival rate. If the RDI infrastructure contributes to the establishment of start-ups and spin-offs, the economic value of this benefit is valued as the expected shadow profit gained by the created business during its overall ex- pected lifetime compared with the without-the-project scenario. Whereas the equity return to investors (e.g. business incubator) and the operating revenues from the sale of consultancy services leading to the establishment of, for example, start-ups, are considered among inflows in the financial analysis, they do not enter in the economic analysis to avoid double counting the con- sidered benefit.

When the RDI infrastructure contributes to increasing the survival rate of start-ups, then the benefit is valued as the incremental expected shadow profit attained by businesses that survive longer than in the without-the-project scenario.

Empirics

The ex-ante estimation of this benefit involves:

 Forecasting the number of start-ups and/or spin-offs expected to be created by the infrastructure during the entire ref- erence period;

47 _{It is worth noting that, in general, we suggest to relay on median values instead of average ones when choosing the baseline values in the deterministic mod-}

el. However, in a probabilistic model, probability distributions should be considered instead of punctual value. Therefore, a probability distribution (characterized by its typical parameters, e.g. mean and standard deviation for normal distribution) should be guessed around this median value.

Annual average number of patents

3

Externality value of patents 15 * (EUR 400,000/10)

Median private value of patents EUR 400,000

Annual social value of patents EUR 3 million Median number of

forward citations Median private value backward citationsMedian number of

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 2 3 4 5

Annual average number of patents

0 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.24 0.3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Private value of patents

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

 Establishing the expected lifetime and survival rate of start-ups and spin-offs (when the infrastructure contributes to increasing the life expectancy of start-ups, the expected increase in their survival rate must be estimated); and,

 Estimating the expected profit generated by start-up and spin-offs created by the RDI infrastructure.

The median number of start-ups and/or spin-offs created by RDI infrastructures in specific countries and sectors, and their ex- pected lifetimes and survival rates, can be proxied by looking at similar infrastructures in other contexts or retrieved from official statistical database or the literature.48

Figure 3. Example of average survival rates in different countries for all sectors of industry, construction, and services except insurance activities of holding compa- nies (*).

(*)codes: B-S_X_K642) retrieved from Eurostat business demography statistics (2012)

Table 6. Example of survival rates of university spin- offs in various countries and two universities

Country Survival _rate Years Source

Netherlands 83% 9 Shane, 2004

France 84% 4 Mustar, 1997

Sweden 87% 34 Shane, 2004

N. Ireland 94% 12 Shane, 2004

UK – Oxford 81% 9 Lawton Smith _{and Ho, 2006}

ETH – Zurich 88% 10 _{Schläpfer, 2008} Oskarsson and

Source: Authors adapted from Oskarsson and Schläpfer (2008)

Concerning the expected profit, the considerations presented in section 4.1 remain valid.

48 _{Some possible sources of information include Eurostat business demography statistics (2012); Innovation Union Competitiveness report (2011 and 2013);}

and the European investment Bank (2013).

1 2 3 4 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Years after foundation

Su rv iv al r at e ( %) Germany Italy Netherlands United Kingdom Lithuania