TIPOS DE ESTABLECIMIENTOS

This scenario represents the top left quadrant in the matrix (see Figure 8.11).

Figure 8.11: The collaboration, or wise management scenario

In the Goldilocks diagram, the system is within its safe operating space (see Figure 8.12). In this domain, which is between Imin (where goat numbers are at a minimum required to

sustain the industry) and Imax (where goat numbers are at a maximum, outside the buffer zone, that the land can carry), both biophysical and social wellbeing are ensured and

system in this domain. The upper limit for the system is not the threshold of collapse, but the risk or buffer zone.

Figure 8.12: A modified Goldilocks diagram showing the safe and equitable operating space and buffer zone for the goat system

The system fluctuates in and out given the inevitable uncertainties in the rangelands, as discussed in Chapter 7. Here, this fluctuation is even more critical than the theoretical fixed threshold Imax, which is why the wavy line is solid and the straight line is dashed.

However, proactive management in this scenario increases system sensitivity and response, which then drastically reduce oscillations. Further, goat numbers should never hit the absolute collapse threshold (K). Under this paradigm, this is the cost that the goat farmers should accept. They cannot run goat numbers above the risk threshold even though, for a while, they would earn more money if they did. They have to settle for a long-term optimum, not a short-term maximum.

In the lower limit of the safe operating space, Imin is a negotiated base threshold that the

system should not cross. If this happens, producers would be financially stressed and could not survive on the land. For this reason, Imin should be periodically negotiated so

that the waved line should never drop below it in the event of extreme oscillation, as represented in Figure 8.12.

It is important to reiterate that this is an adaptation of the Goldilocks principle, which originally assumes the possibility of setting clear thresholds, and on scales bigger than

Social processes unsustainable Goat industry collapses

0 Imin= PminC Imax = K -d K Iglobal= P C d

Social-ecological processes unsustainable Goats grazing pressure deplete resources

Agreed buffer zone:

Social-ecological processes sustainable but at risk Goat numbers fluctuate in but should be returned to SOS

A safe and equitable operating zone Social-ecological processes sustainable

Goat harvesting as the environmental management tool of choice

the Western Division. As discussed in previous chapters, the WNSW rangelands are event-driven. Therefore, there is no way to obtain a clear and long-term understanding of where thresholds are, hence the wavy lines on the diagram. In reality, the right number of goats for production and conservation may not always coincide. In the WNSW rangelands rainfall is highly variable in time and space, so herbivore stocks, goats included, vary accordingly. Sheep are more affected by this variability because they rely on grasses for most of their nutrition. Goats have the unique advantage of being browsers; they can survive on woody shrubs and trees in-between rainfall events. The increase in wild goat population in the last 20 years despite all sorts of disturbances (drought, culling and commercial harvesting) is a clear indication of the relatively higher resilience of goats to rainfall variability. The range of values determined by rainfall and pulses determines how large the buffer zone described above needs to be—this decision should be agreed upon by all stakeholders. As discussed in chapter 7, a grazing pressure that maintains landscape function is most likely going to be higher than that which protects biodiversity. Thus, in addition to having national parks and protected areas, negotiations should include thinking about an alternative or supplementary practice to opportunistic harvesting of goats. This is discussed in chapter 10 under semi-management. In all cases—and considering the advantage of goats and the unavoidable fluctuations—the basis of collaboration under the new paradigm is ongoing dialogue and monitoring of the system.

The safe operating space might vary from year to year, and sometimes be shorter or longer, depending on the variability of rainfall in the rangelands. Thresholds can be raised or lowered, depending on factors such as the level of perennial grasses and socio- economic wellbeing of producers. Imin and Imax are negotiable and highly variable

thresholds, and they can move from year to year, driven by events in the landscape. The common aim should always be to protect as much of the perennial grasses as possible; this would raise the threshold for wind and rainfall erosivity and help maintain landscape function.

The probability of rainfall can be forecast with low precision, and a range of probable preferred total grazing pressures estimated for landscape types (Stafford Smith and Cribb, 2009). Therefore, the upper and lower limits of the safe operating space can be agreed upon accordingly. The zone needs to be set for lower values within the range between Imax and Imin. Currently, the resource proponents tend to follow the limits of the wavy line

effects of range degradation on forage production. The risk of degradation can be reduced by keeping stocking rate below the level estimated using models such as AussieGrass (Queensland Government, 2018). Even this level may exceed the safe maximum, in which case stock should be removed by selling, shooting or agisting them. While there is enough buffer to accommodate this and not flip over the maximum threshold (K), any time the wavy line enters the buffer zone (i.e., anytime the system approaches the maximum threshold), managers should act and control goat numbers to return them to levels within the safe operating space. In other words, collaborative management should monitor fluctuations and interactions between estimated rains and actual number of goats, increasing or decreasing the latter as the former manifests, but always in and out of the risk threshold (between Imax and K), not into the tipping point ceiling (K).

I should note that the wise management model is a proposed approach to collaborate on these issues and negotiate thresholds and safe operating space. This is to be agreed on between stakeholders, rather than it coming from a single researcher. This is the logic in approaches like, for example Innovation Platforms (Maru, 2018), whereby multi- stakeholders are responsible of co-learning and co-management of their system of interest. In the context of the dynamics in the rangelands, this would still be hard without some quantitative modelling of the fluctuations of numbers of goats in relation to resource availability. This modelling could therefore be used to facilitate the dialogue, in addition to the scenario models and systems tools that are provided in this project.