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Global economy accelerates

The Institute for the World Economy (IfW) expects a further improvement in the global eco- nomy. Higher growth rates are expected, particularly in advanced economies, a develop- ment that will also benefit emerging markets through stronger external demand. The IfW expects global output to increase by 3.7% in 2015. In the subsequent year, growth could reach 3.9%. Global trade should show even stronger growth, with an increase of 4.5% this year and 5.5% next year. The institute‘s forecast is based on the assumptions that geopolitical crises will not intensify, that financial market tensions will either be of short duration or limited to individual countries, and that the existence of the euro zone will not again be cast in doubt.

__ Europe: economic recovery continues

In the crisis countries in Europe, economic adaptation processes have continued to take effect, which should spur positive economic impulses. However, in the view of the IfW, structural problems in some euro-zone countries continue to stand in the way of a robust economic recovery. Thus, only moderate growth rates are expected in 2015 and 2016 for both the European Union and the euro zone.

__ North America: recovery in the USA

In the United States economic conditions have seen sustained improvement. Accordingly, a significant increase in economic growth is forecast for this economic region. With economic growth at 3.2% this year and 3.5% next year, the USA could become an engine of growth in the global economy. Against this backdrop, the IfW sees strengthening corporate investment, and companies could benefit from very favorable financing conditions.

__ BRIC countries: generally rising economies

Economic growth in the BRIC states will likely continue to be uneven. Russia is expected to dip into a slight recession in 2015 before the economy bounces back into positive territory in 2016. In Brazil, GDP is expected to grow in both of the next two years according to estimates from the IfW. Overall, however, there are contradictory estimates and sources on Brazilian

economic development. Positive development is also expected to continue in India, where annual growth rates over the forecast period should exceed 6%. In China, the IfW sees gross domestic product growing by 7.0% in 2015 and 6.7% in 2016. Thus the trend toward weaker economic growth in China will continue but with growth rates continuing to be significantly higher than those of the global economy.

Industry trend: outlook remains positive

For the global commercial vehicle market all signs point to continued future growth. The industry experts at A.T. Kearney expect the global market for medium and heavy trucks to grow by 4.8% annually to 2020. At the same time, increasing volumes of goods and improved road networks worldwide are expected to support the trend. The high number of freight forwarders needing to catch up on new purchases to modernize their fleets in established markets will strengthen demand.

__ Commercial vehicle market in Europe picks up steam

Forecasts project continued positive development in the European market. This view is supported in particular by the high average age of fleets, which makes new purchases increasingly inevitable. In Western Europe the number of new trailer registrations this year is expected to reach 4.4% and climb to 9.0% next year. In Eastern Europe, new registrations in 2015 are likely to be on par with last year‘s figure. For 2016, new vehicle registrations are expected to rise to 11.0%. Significant increases are also expected in the truck segment. For vehicles exceeding 15 tons in the region encompassing Western, Central and Eastern Europe an increase of 13.3% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2016 is anticipated.

__ Double-digit growth rates in North America

For North America, ACT Research projects strong growth in the sector. In the trailer segment, shipment figures for 2015 are anticipated to rise by 11.7% and the class 8 trucks that are key for SAF-HOLLAND are expected to see a 14.0% production increase. In 2016, market growth may level off again, with a continued high annual production of more than 300,000 units in each segment. Volume in class 7 vehicles could fall slightly. In this segment, ACT Research sees a slight plus of 0.6% this year and 5.6% next year. Once again, the North American market’s pent-up demand will be a significant driver of growth. The strong economy and the increase in construc- tion activity will give the market additional buoyancy.

__ BRIC countries continue to be important markets

In emerging nations, transport volumes are increasing rapidly, creating growing demand for trucks and trailers. Commercial vehicle markets are thus still on track for growth. This also applies to the BRIC countries, which already purchase 55% of the world’s truck production. As high demand continues, industry development in Russia depends for now primarily on the

PREDICTED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN IMPORTANT MARKETS

2015 2016 European Union 1.6% 1.8% Euro zone 1.2% 1.5% Germany 1.7% 1.9% United States 3.2% 3.5% Brazil 1.5% 2.5% Russia -0.5% 0.5% India 6.5% 6.5% China 7.0% 6.7%

Source: Institute for the World Economy IfW, (December 2014)

Opportunities and Risk Report Events after the Balance Sheet Date Outlook

outcome of political events. In Brazil the market is not expected to grow. An improved econo- mic outlook, as well as stronger construction and mining activities will bolster demand in India. The country’s industry association SIAM expects growth of between 5% and 9% for trucks of the higher weight classes. In China, A.T. Kearney projects that sales of medium and heavy trucks will increase to 1.4 million units by 2020. That corresponds to an annual growth rate of 4.0%.