Rayos X: propiedades y mecanismo de acción
A: tomografía Cone Beam, B: reconstrucción 3D Cone Beam
Energy productivity 2020: 48 GJ ethanol/ha (EU28 avg., without accounting for co- products)
Cropland agricultural land displacement: 10.4 ha/TJ / 9.6 ha/TJ
Land use emissions: 97 gCO2/MJ
Additional demand of biofuels for a full EU 2020 biofuel mix is coming from a mix of 11.1 Mt of corn, 6.6 Mt of wheat, 15.4 Mt of sugar beet, 5.8 Mt of rapeseed oil, 4.5 Mt of palm oil, 2.9 Mt of soybean oil and more minor uses of sunflower oil, sugar cane andbarley. We distributed feedstocks proportionally to their historical shares. To reach their commitments, Member States deploy some second generation biofuels, and 7.8 Mt of short rotation coppice and 2.1 Mt of grassy crops are established for biofuel production in this scenario. Due to the large contribution of palm oil and soybeans, only 37% of total additional feedstocks under this scenario are produced in the EU. This shock leads to a price change globally of 9.3% for vegetable oil and 0.8% for cereals, while protein meal prices decrease by 12%. In the EU, the prices of these products change by 38%, 4.6% and - 24% respectively. Overall, crop prices increase by 0.5% globally and food prices by 0.3%.
Adjustments to the shock
The additional feedstock is achieved 22% through a decrease in food and feed demand, 26% by displacement of feed by co-products and 52% by extra production, in which yield accounts for 13%. Additional feedstock production is located in the EU (2.9 Mha), Southeast Asia (2.2 Mha), Latin America (1.3 Mha) and to a more limited extent in Ukraine and rest of Europe, North America, Sub- saharan Africa, and Oceania (0.4 Mha for each).
Overall agricultural production is also affected by a decrease in demand of 6.5 Mt for cereals in Europe and 9.2 Mt globally. Additionally, 2.4 Mt vegetable oils are no longer consumed globally. Protein meal consumption increasesmassively by 13 Mt, which boosts milk production by 1 Mt and meat production by 0.2 Mt.
Land use change effect
Land expansion requires an additional 8.8 Mha of land conversion globally compared to the
reference case – 8 Mha for additional cropland and the rest of short rotation plantations for advanced biofuels. In Europe, less cropland is abandoned and crop area increase by 2.9 Mha. In Southeast Asia, cropland expands by 2.1 Mha under the pressure of palm plantation, 50% of this is at the expense of tropical forest. At the same time, grassland decreases by 1.4 Mha globally, mainly in Latin America, Southeast Asia and the EU.
Land use change emissions
Land use emissions are mainly associated with LUC emissions (855 MtCO2e) and peatland emissions (880 MtCO2e). Carbon sequestration in biomass decreases emissions by 480 MtCO2e, however, through new palm trees, mainly in Southeast Asia. Soil organic carbon release 228 MtCO2e over the period and foregone sequestration in natural vegetation accounts for 110 MtCO2e.
Total LUC emissions for the EU 2020 biofuel mix scenario reach a total of 1,493 MtCO2e over the full 20 year period, which corresponds to an LUC emissions factor of 97 gCO2e/MJ. If no natural
vegetation were to regrow on abandoned agricultural land in absence of biofuels, the total LUC emissions would be lower, at 1,385 MtCO2e, and the LUC emission factor would be 90 gCO2e/MJ.
4.21 EU 2020 biofuel mix scenario with 7% cap on conventional biofuels
Energy productivity 2000-2030: 60 GJ ethanol/ha (EU28 avg., before accounting for co-products)
Cropland and Grassland displacement: 8.0 ha/TJ and 9.0 ha/TJ
Land use emissions: 74 gCO2/MJ
Additional demand when implementing a EU 2020 mix with 7% cap on first generation comes from a more important share of second generation bioenergy. Under this scenario, 17 Mt of woody
biomass is sourced from short rotation coppice and 6.1 Mt from grassy crops. The largest feedstocks used after these are sugar beet (10 Mt), maize (8.4 Mt) and wheat (4.8 Mt), with palm oil
importance decreased at 3.3 Mt. This shock lowers the impact of the policy on the feedstock markets (1.1%) and no food price increase is observed on average.
Adjustments to the shock
Additional feedstocks are provided 17% through a decrease in food and feed demand, 22% by displacement of feed by co-products and 61 % by extra production, in which yield accounts for 17%. Additional feedstock production is located in the EU (2.3 Mha), Southeast Asia (1.8 Mha), Latin America (0.6 Mha for each), and Ukraine and the rest of Europe, Oceania and Sub-saharan Africa (0.3 Mha each).
Overall agricultural production is also affected globally by a decrease of 2.1 Mt in demand for cereals and 2.8 Mt for sugar crops. Protein meal demand increases by 6.5 Mt, whereas demand for vegetable oil is less affected (-1.5Mt). Meat and milk demand increase globally by 0.2 and 0.6 Mt, respectively.
Land use change effect
Land expansion leads to 6.7 Mha of land conversion globally, of which 5.2 Mha are used for additional cropland and 1.5 Mha for short rotation coppice. In the EU, cropland expands by only 1.8 Mha, half at the expense of abandoned land and half through other natural vegetation. Southeast Asia (1.6 Mha) and Latin America (0.6 Mha) are the two other regions where most cropland changes are taking place, although to a lower extent than in some other scenarios. At the same time,
grassland decreases by 0.9 Mha globally, mainly in Latin America, Southeast Asia and in the EU. Land use change emissions
Land use emissions from living biomass conversions are more contained in this scenario at 617 MtCO2. The EU is almost neutral on this source (6 MtCO2) through expansion of woody biomass plantations. However, peatland emissions are still high (684 MtCO2e), although plantations sequester 517 MtCO2e. Some foregone sequestration on other feedstock still amounts to 89 MtCO2e globally and soil carbon losses reach 81 MtCO2e globally.
Total land use emissions of the EU 2020 scenario with 7% cap are found to be 952 MtCO2e, therefore resulting in an LUC emissions factor of 74 gCO2e/MJ for the EU policy. If no natural vegetation were to regrow on abandoned agricultural land in absence of biofuels, the total LUC emissions would be lower, at 865 MtCO2e, and the LUC emission factor would be 67 gCO2e/MJ.