trade in LNG is currently around trade in LNG is currently around the 240 million tonnes per annum the 240 million tonnes per annum (mta) mark. What do you think (mta) mark. What do you think the trade level will be in 2029 the trade level will be in 2029 (approximately) and why? (approximately) and why?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton: It will probably be around double that, if not more. Demand is rising and is likely to continue to do so for environmental, cost and security of supply reasons. The two countries with the largest reserves of natural gas, Russia and Iran, currently have just one export terminal between them. Once these vast reserves come onstream, along with the export projects planned for the US, British Columbia, East Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, the Arctic and Australia, the world’s LNG production profile will look very different to that of today. Of course, not all proposed projects will be built but those that go ahead will mean a significant boost to world output. Jean-Yves Robin:
Jean-Yves Robin: Global trade could be in the 400–425 mta range. This figure is arrived at because export plants traditionally work at an 85 per cent utilisation rate while liquefaction capacity worldwide could reach the 450–500 mta level.
Bill Wayne:
Bill Wayne: My guess would be about 400 mta. The drivers are an increasing awareness that gas will have a key role to play in a world of low CO2 emissions and the possibility that significant quantities in the form of LNG could be utilised as marine fuel. It is worth noting that the global market for marine bunker fuel oil stands at 300 mta. Just a 15 per cent swing, which seems a fairly conservative estimate, would require an extra 40 mta of LNG production. Moderating influences on this gas demand are the traditional issues of high capital cost requirements and perceived risks in doing business in some countries with access to undeveloped reserves.
Ed Carr:
Ed Carr:I don’t have a figure in mind, but it is logical to think that natural gas will continue to be the fossil fuel of choice into the foreseeable future, primarily for power generation but also for domestic use such as heating and cooking, particularly in emerging market s. The use of gas as a petrochemical feedstock is also driving demand. Indonesia and South America are good examples of LNG markets that did not exist 10 years ago. Furthermore the threat of geopolitical disrupt ions to pipeline deliveries will prompt decision makers to put in place LNG import infrastructure as a hedge against supply interruptions.
Chris Clucas:
Chris Clucas:Extrapolation of statistics from the past 10 years suggests a level of around 425 mta, or about 80 per cent ahead of the current trade volume. The positive factors include world population and economic growth, environmental concerns and plentiful supplies of gas. On the other side of the coin are the imponderables. As the late Malcolm Peebles memorably commented at one Gastech conference, the LNG industry has seen numerous demand forecasts, and the only consistent factor is that they are always wrong! No doubt my comments above have just added to the tally.
LNG Shipping at 50: Do you expect Do you expect any breakthroughs in terms of new any breakthroughs in terms of new containment systems over the next containment systems over the next 15 years?
15 years?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton: The main containment systems in use today are unlikely to be easily displaced. They are proven, well-established and have stood the test of time. The drive towards increased efficiency will continue, with a particular focus on better insulation to ensure lower natural boil-off gas (BOG) rates, in tandem with improvements in engine efficiency and the resultant
lower requirement for BOG as fuel. For floating terminal projects there may be a trend towards greater use of Moss spheres or self-supporting, prismatic IMO Type B (SPB) tanks. The new, enlarged Panama Canal locks will determine the maximum size for future LNG vessels – about 175,000m3 for membrane tank ships and 160,000m3
for Moss ships for a maximum beam of 49m.
Bill Wayne:
Bill Wayne: No, I think there will be continual evolutionary development of established systems, mainly for lower BOG rates. There are high entry barriers to completely new containment systems, and backing a novel design is regarded as being a significant technological risk. To gain acceptance, a new design must be either significantly cheaper, quicker to build or, preferably, both. Ed Carr:
Ed Carr: I believe that SPB will make a comeback, now that the JMU yard in Japan has received several orders for
SPB tank vessels and has been able to reduce costs by using more automated welding. The displacement tonnage disadvantage of SPB ships has more or less been negated by the fact that many terminals have upgraded to accept Q-flex and Q-max size vessels. At 177,000m3, conventional LNG carriers with Moss tanks have probably reached their maximum size, although spherical tank vessels of greater capacity could be used in offshore applications. I can’t imagine shipowners or charterers taking a chance on a new membrane or hybrid containment system just to save the GTT license fee. For that to happen there would need to be risk sharing, and we don’t see much of that in today’s business. Also, a deep-pocketed project participant willing to take that risk
LNG Shipping at 50 had the opportunity to ask a
panel of experts* to predict the state of play in 2029,
on the occasion of SIGTTO’s 50th anniversary
Where will the
industry be in 2029?
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would be required. Having said that, it is interesting to note that ExxonMobil used a new tank design for its Adriatic LNG offshore terminal.
Chris Clucas:
Chris Clucas: Possible increases in ship capacity could lead to an evolution of the current integral membrane, independent prismatic and independent spherical tank containment systems. Nirvana is still the internal insulation system but failures of the concept early in the industry’s history seem to have discouraged any serious work on this idea. However, new materials yet to be discovered may make such an internal insulation system feasible.
LNG Shipping at 50: What do you What do you think will be the LNGC propulsion think will be the LNGC propulsion system of choice in 2029? system of choice in 2029?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton:I think technology will bring further changes. When dual-fuel diesel-electric (DFDE) engines were first ordered in the early part of the new millennium, no-one was talking about two-stroke gas injection (ME-GI) engines. Recently such vessels have been ordered. There will still be steam ships trading in 2029. Pressures to lower fuel consumption, increase engine efficiencies and control system emissions will push technology in different directions. The industry will learn from the performance of the early ME-GI engines and the use of LNG as a marine fuel on conventional ships and develop accordingly. Jean-Yves Robin:
Jean-Yves Robin:Given the LNG industry’s traditional reluctance to take risks or innovate at too fast a pace, I do not expect a great change from the modern engines now being chosen for newbuildings. The current large orderbook for LNG ships and the propulsion systems that have been specified for these vessels provide a good indication of the direction the industry is taking.
Bill Wayne:
Bill Wayne:Low-speed, two-stroke, duel-fuel diesel engines with low- pressure gas injection. The principal driver for this particular choice of propulsion system is IMO’s Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) initiative, and hence fuel economy. Technically a neat design of combined cycle gas turbine could be interesting, but there is no advanced aero-derivative base engine to build the system around. Modern engines, such as the Rolls-Royce MT 90, are all too powerful for the needs.
Ed Carr:
Ed Carr: I think there will continue to be a market for all three propulsion systems. Steam, and now ultra steam, turbines have their advocates due to the system’s reliability and the ease of handing BOG at low speeds. DFDE, and TFDE, lends itself to flexible machinery space layouts and specific applications like the use of azipod propulsors. The downside is the high maintenance costs. ME-GI engines, once proven in service, will be attractive to projects where the cost of fuel is a significant issue in the scheme’s overall economics. However, many trading models only use their ships at full speed for a portion of time and low speed means a requirement to handle BOG. That means either adding an expensive reliquefaction plant or disposing of BOG via a gas combustion unit (GCU). Chris Clucas:
Chris Clucas:The same system as used for normal merchant ships, because such ships are also likely to be running on LNG! Although it is difficult to envisage what may happen in the next 15 years, fuel cell technology looks promising. Also, conventional two-stroke diesels have proved reliable under the very demanding conditions at sea, which is one factor that will not change. A simple and reliable propulsion system will be the key requirement, plus the ability to burn clean fuel efficiently so as to be in compliance with EEDI requirements and not cause environmental pollution.
LNG Shipping at 50: To what To what extent do you think the LNG extent do you think the LNG industry will rely on floating LNG industry will rely on floating LNG production in 2029?
production in 2029?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton:Five years ago there was no FLNG vessel on order and now we have four such units under construction and several more FLNG projects under serious discussion. It is inevitable that a reasonable percentage of the world’s production in 2029 will be FLNG-derived. The challenges associated with building an LNG export terminal at a greenfield onshore site, especially in a remote area with labour and local content issues, are huge. Project economics will determine the final choice. Operating an FLNG unit comes with its own challenges, including the provision of onshore support, onsite train maintenance and handling various weather scenarios. Jean-Yves Robin:
Jean-Yves Robin:Of the 230 mta of additional liquefaction capacity likely to come onstream between now and
2029, not more than 15–20 per cent, or 35–45 mta, will be FLNG-derived. Most extensions of existing plant, brownfield projects, schemes with adequate onshore infrastructure and projects in areas where a high local content is required will rely on traditional shore-based export terminals.
Bill Wayne:
Bill Wayne:Not much. I think FLNG will remain a niche product so long as there are sufficient reserves which can be developed with reasonable ease using traditional onshore plants. The main driver for FLNG is the elimination of the costly subsea line back to shore. Additionally, projects such as Prelude make sense due to the very high engineering, procurement and construction costs associated with developing onshore facilities in Australia. Ed Carr:
Ed Carr:It really depends on the price of LNG. On a per tonne basis, offshore projects are almost always significantly more expensive then onshore projects, but any decision will be site-dependent. While there will be some floating LNG production going forward, I think it will be the exception rather than the rule. Chris Clucas:
Chris Clucas:To a significant extent. There will be an increasing need to use our offshore energy resources, and FLNG offers the opportunity to exploit small, stranded gas resources.
LNG Shipping at 50: To what extentTo what extent do you think small-scale LNG, do you think small-scale LNG, including the use of LNG as marine including the use of LNG as marine fuel, will be established by 2029? fuel, will be established by 2029?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton:The delivery of smaller parcels of LNG to receivers who are not currently able to handle LNG will become much more common
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and small coastal LNG vessels will be required in greater numbers. The extent to which LNG is used as a marine fuel and the speed of its take- up will depend on when IMO’s global sulphur cap restrictions enter into force. By 2029 I would expect that a substantial worldwide LNG bunkering infrastructure will be largely in place, enabling many deepsea vessels to bunker with LNG. Small-scale LNG will be an integral part of this supply chain. Jean-Yves Robin:
Jean-Yves Robin: Small-scale LNG, primarily for the supply of LNG as transportation fuel, could grow rapidly from 2020 onwards, to reach around 40 mta by 2029. That would be equivalent to around 10 per cent of the total LNG market at that time. Both environmental (air pollution) and economic drivers (fuel price differentials and the cost of complying with IMO restrictions) are the underlying reasons. Bill Wayne:
Bill Wayne:I think there is quite a lot of potential here, particularly for vessels trading extensively in emission control areas (ECAs). I am less sure of the case for ships serving on long-haul, deepsea trade routes.
Ed Carr:
Ed Carr:The extent to which LNG as marine fuel is taken up will depend on price, supply and the continued spread of stricter emission control requirements. Look for ships operating in current ECAs, namely the Baltic and North Seas and North American coastal waters, to lead the way. They will be followed by vessels on long-haul, fixed routes, like large container ships sailing between Asia and Europe.
Chris Clucas:
Chris Clucas: Having recently been appointed the founder president of the Society for Gas as Marine Fuel (SGMF), I would say completely! The business is already starting to happen and I am sure you will be hearing about orders for new LNG bunker delivery tankers very shortly.
LNG Shipping at 50: What do you What do you think is the greatest challenge that think is the greatest challenge that the LNG industry will face over the LNG industry will face over the next 15 years? What is the best the next 15 years? What is the best way to meet this challenge? way to meet this challenge?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton:I believe it is two related issues which SIGTTO has been dealing with since the Society was formed – manning and safety. The remarkable safety record that
LNG shipping has achieved needs to be protected and maintained; it is, in effect, our license to operate. Increases in activity bring increased risks and these need to be mitigated through appropriate control measures, including continuing to operate to best practice and not just the minimum requirements. Existing industry members need to ensure that new entrants embrace the high standards and practices the LNG shipping community has operated to these past 50 years. The industry also needs to continue to invest in training; there is no other solution to the skills shortage. Also, the focus must not be just on ship staff. Having sufficient numbers of shore support staff and trainers of the appropriate quality is vital too. Jean-Yves Robin:
Jean-Yves Robin:There are many challenges. These include the uncertainty of demand in the Atlantic Basin, a potential breakthrough of unconventional gas in China and India, and competition from large pipelines into Asia. However, the major challenge within the LNG industry itself is the increasing cost of new investment stemming from factors such as environmental requirements, shortages of qualified personnel, and labour and material costs.
General market and political pressures to keep the level of energy prices low on the one hand and cost escalations on the other could squeeze margins over extended periods of time. Bill Wayne:
Bill Wayne: In an age where society is increasingly suspicious of large companies, and recognising that LNG projects will, for cost reasons, remain the preserve of such companies, the challenge of getting society, government and regulatory support for new projects remains significant. To have a chance of success it is vital that the industry’s reputation for reliability and safety are strongly maintained.
Ed Carr:
Ed Carr: Finding, training and developing adequate human resources to handle the growth. But also continuing a safety culture where no accident is acceptable.
Chris Clucas:
Chris Clucas:Skills – in all areas, ashore and at sea. The best way to meet this challenge is through training and much better harnessing of educated engineering talent from our colleges and universities. Historically the LNG industry has been a rather ‘start-stop’
sector, with many senior people leaving and not being replaced during the quieter parts of the business cycle. This is then followed by a mad panic and wage spiral a couple of years later when activity picks up. I was extremely fortunate to join the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) just after graduating and chance brought me the opportunity to move into liquefied gas. It seems to me this sort of opportunity needs to be offered by some of our industry bodies. It is certainly on my agenda for SGMF and I have suggested this in the past to SIGTTO. The need exists in the companies that design and operate LNG plants, that manufacture LNG equipment and especially in those that man and operate LNG ships, where the entire sector faces a recruitment gap. Logic would suggest that general remuneration packages for LNG should be kept somewhat higher than comparable work in, say, oil or coal but this would probably be impossible in companies that work in all sectors.
LNG Shipping at 50: Do you foresee Do you foresee any other major changes taking any other major changes taking place in the LNG industry over the place in the LNG industry over the next 15 years?
next 15 years?
Andrew Clifton:
Andrew Clifton:More players in the industry mean more options and increased competition and expectations. The small, closed ‘LNG club’ is now part of history. The percentage of the world’s fleet tied to specific projects is likely to be lower than it is today as the portfolio players use chartered/operated fleets to move their supply around. The way LNG is traded may also move away from the more traditional methods of the past. In addition we may see completely new uses for floating LNG such as integral power plants where
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storage, regasification and power generation is all on one huge unit supplied by ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Such a solution would be ideal for major engineering projects in isolated locations or for dealing with areas recovering from natural disasters.
Jean-Yves Robin:
Jean-Yves Robin: The LNG business