Tratamiento

The results of the survey also for the first time permit a more dynamic analysis of the changes in the size and composition of the informal MSE sector over time and under dif- ferent economic conditions. In general terms the surveys found that the sector is in a con- stant flux - with components of change moving in opposite directions, so that figures on net change can mask the magnitude of the ‘churning’ that takes place within the sector.

3.3.1 New MSEs starts

Informal enterprises are being established at a substantial rate: from just below 20% a year (of all existing firms at the end of the year) in Kenya to over 30% in Botswana. Mead and Liedholm observe that this is surprisingly high, particularly when compared to the number of start-ups of small firms in industrialized countries, which is typically around 10% per year.

The vast majority of new firms are being created as one-person enterprises, which show substantially higher birth rates than the larger-than-one establishments. Fe- male-headed enterprises show a higher birth rate than male-headed firms do.

According to the authors the implication of these statistics is that, contrary to what is sometimes assumed, there is no overall scarcity of entrepreneurs in Africa. In fact, there are many persons who are even willing to venture into one-person ventures which are typi- cally the least efficient and least remunerative. It should be pointed out, however, that many of them do not have much choice and are rather ‘entrepreneur’ by necessity than by conviction.

3.3.2 MSEs closures

The African surveys estimated the death rates of MSEs at 13 percent of those present at the beginning of each year.

Only less than half of the informal firms closed as the result of economic reasons (such as: lack of demand, shortage of working capital), while approximately one in four of them closed for personal reasons (e.g. illness, retirement) and the rest closed because the owner moved to more attractive other employment positions, or because the firm was forced to close down by the government. Follow-up information in Kenya showed that 60% of those who closed down an informal firm, subsequently opened another business (whereas 15% returned to agriculture, 8% accepted a government job and 17% were no longer economically active).

Most closures occur in the early years of the firm’s existence: in Africa over 50% of the closures had taken place within the first 3 years of start-up (and peaked before the end of the 1st year in Botswana and Swaziland, and between the first and second year in Kenya and Zimbabwe). These results make it abundantly clear that informal MSEs are particu-

34

larly vulnerable during the fragile initial years when the entrepreneurs are still in the learning process of how to operate a new business.

The survey results also give some indication what type of informal MSEs survive best:

8

MSEs that had added workers when compared to those who remained the same size

8

firms that started smallest when compared to those which started with more em- ployees

8

retail face the highest closure risks (e.g. 30% more than woodworking): real esta- te, wood processing, wholesale traders, and non-metallic manufacturing enter- prises are least likely to close, while trading, transport, and chemical MSEs are most likely to do so

8

urban MSEs have an almost 25% greater chance of survival than their rural coun- terparts

8

female-headed households are less likely to survive (but only because in low-return and home-based activities, often to personal and non-business reasons

8

the closure rate among low-profit enterprises is negatively related to the GDP growth rate.

3.3.3 MSEs expansion

The expansion (or reduction) of informal MSEs are usually measured in terms of number of workers, but in the Kenya survey the expansion could be measured in terms of net increases in real sales of the MSEs. Measured in this way, growth turned out to be al- most double the employment expansion, which finding was confirmed in a survey in Ja- maica. This clearly indicates the lumpy nature of employment, which also appears to increase with a certain lag after sizeable growth of real sales.

In terms of employment, the surveys found strikingly high overall growth rates: aver- age annual employment growth rate since start-up was 13-16 % per year across the 6 coun- tries. This is even more impressive when it is realized that the majority of the MSEs did not grow at all: in most countries less than one in four of the firms actually added workers (and in Kenya more than one in three of the informal firms). Most of the expansion was due to a minority each adding only a few workers. Only about 1% ‘graduated’ from the ME seedbed to end up with more than 10 workers.

The surveys indicate with respect to the informal firms that are most likely to ex- pand:

8

there is an inverse relation between enterprise expansion and age of the MSE: yo- unger MSEs are more likely to show higher rates of growth (also shown in Kenya) - much of the expansion occurs in the first 2 years (and in Kenya after 8 years dow-

8

an inverse relationship was also found between rate of growth and initial size of the firm

8

the rate of MSE growth is influenced by economic sector: manufacturing and ser- vice MSEs more likely to expand than those in trading - but specific sectors that are likely to generate more jobs vary from country to country (“unique finger print”)

8

MSEs located in rural towns and villages are less likely to expand; moreover, MSEs operating in commercial areas or even along the roadside showed a markedly stronger tendency to expand than those operating in the home

8

male-headed MSEs are more likely to expand fast (11%) than female-headed ones (7%)

Other authors (e.g. McPherson) provide evidence that entrepreneurs who had re- ceived some vocational training expanded their firms faster than those without such train- ing. In Kenya entrepreneurs with at least 7 years experience, like entrepreneurs who completed secondary school, were found more likely to expand more rapidly.

In document UNIVERSIDAD DE SALAMANCA (página 35-39)