On the basis of these preliminary assumptions and the conceptual framework defined before, a set of industries/services that are expected to be highly affected by CCAM (either positively or negatively) have been selected.
The table below (Table 5) presents possible indicators for each of these sectors to approach the question “How could CAVs affect the EU economy and society?”, specifying possible sources of data (i.e. indicating which Eurostat NACE Rev. 2 economic activities we believe to be linked to each relevant sector) and preliminary indications of which factors might be influencing and how (in which direction, increase or decrease in sector revenues or jobs). These form the basis for the subsequent sectoral analysis.
Table 5. Evaluation matrix focusing on the sectors most likely to be affected by CAV technologies (sectors indicated in grey seem to be affected to a
lesser extent)
SECTORS INDICATORS UNITS DATA SOURCES POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND LIKELY DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE
Automotive (vehicle manufacturing and distribution)
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE C29.10, C27.11, C27.40, C28.11, G45.1, G45.3)
Vehicle sales are expected to increase if Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) increase, personal ownership prevails, as well as through the extended vehicle usage in car/ride sharing. On the other hand, vehicle sales could decrease if VKT decreases, e.g. such as in the case that shared mobility prevails. Although, an increased vehicle utilisation will lead to shorter vehicle lifetimes.
Number of vehicles sold per year
Vehicles/year Revenues per year
(in vehicle sales)
Euro/year
Electronics and software
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE C26.20, C26.40, C26.51, J62)
Revenues from this sector are expected to increase with sensors, controllers, actuators, self-driving software, maps, etc. that will be required for automated driving.
Revenues per year (in self-driving
software, maps, etc.)
Euro/year
Telecommunication Number of jobs Jobs Eurostat (NACE J61.2, F42.22, F43.21)
The increased connectivity requirements and data exchanges in an AV will increase revenues in this sector.
Revenues per year Euro/year
Data services Number of jobs Jobs Eurostat (NACE J63.11 and J63.12)
New services linked to vehicle automation and connectivity will increase revenues from data services.
Revenues per year Euro/year
Digital media
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE J60.20, G47.91, J60.10)
Revenues linked to contents provision could increase with greater demand for digital media during commutes. Revenues linked to radio and music could decrease if there is a decreased demand for radio and music (preference for visual).
Revenues per year for content providers
SECTORS INDICATORS UNITS DATA SOURCES POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND LIKELY DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE
Digital media (continued)
Revenues per year in
online shopping Euro/year Revenues per year in
radio and recorded music
Euro/year
Freight transport
Number of jobs
(truck drivers) Jobs
Eurostat (NACE H49.41, H49.42, H49.2, H50.2, H50.4, N77.12)
Truck driver jobs could decrease with fully automated trucks. Revenues from road transport commercial operations could increase as fuel consumption and travel time decreases with truck platooning, number of truck drivers needed decreases (even if wages could increase with a more technical role, e.g. monitoring the CAV) and if driver time restrictions no longer apply. Possible modal shifts towards road transport (e.g. from rail or sea) could appear as a consequence of the more efficient road operation.
Revenues per year Euro/year Cost per truck driver Euro/hour Number of hours of
transport per driver Hours/driver Number of jobs -
freight transport via rail
Jobs
Revenues coming from freight transport via rail
Euro/year
Number of jobs - freight transport via water
Jobs
Revenues coming from freight
transport via water
SECTORS INDICATORS UNITS DATA SOURCES POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND LIKELY DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE
Passenger transport
Cost of driving Euro/km
Eurostat (NACE H49.10, H49.31, H49.32, H49.39, H51.10,
M77.11)
Taxi driver jobs could decrease with fully
automated vehicles. Possible modal shifts towards road transport (e.g. from rail or air) could appear as a consequence of the more efficient and comfortable road travel. As well as from public transport towards private mobility.
Household expenditure on transport (% of total expenditure or income) Euro or % Number of public transport related jobs Jobs Number of taxi
driver jobs Jobs Number of air transport related jobs Jobs Number of rail transport related jobs Jobs
Number of rental car
related jobs Jobs Rental car revenues
per year Euro/year
Taxi revenues per year
SECTORS INDICATORS UNITS DATA SOURCES POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND LIKELY DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE Passenger transport (continued) Airplane revenues per year Euro/year Train revenues per
year Euro/year
Insurance
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE K65.12, K65.20)
Revenues from motor vehicle insurance policies could decrease if accidents decrease. But complex liability assignment could lead to more costly liability claims. Collision expenses could increase with CAV’s more costly technology. Revenues per year
(insurance policies) Euro/year Collision expenses Euro
Maintenance and repair
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE G45.20)
Revenues from vehicle repair linked to crashes would decrease with improved road safety circumstances.
Revenues per year
(vehicle repair) Euro/year Revenues per year
(other, e.g. vehicle personalization)
Euro/year
Power
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE D35.1)
Future CAVs will likely be electric, leading to increases in electricity sales.
Revenues per year
(electricity sales) Euro/year
Traffic police
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE O84.24)
The size of police force needed for traffic surveillance could decrease if drunk driving, speeding, and other misbehaviours become less frequent.
Size of police force needed (for traffic surveillance)
SECTORS INDICATORS UNITS DATA SOURCES POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND LIKELY DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE Traffic police
(continued)
Government revenues per year (from traffic fines)
Euro/year
Education
Number of jobs Jobs Eurostat (NACE
O85.32, O85.4, O85.5)
Shifts in education programs could be expected as a result of skills and occupations demanded for future mobility technologies and services.
Revenues per year Euro/year
Construction of roads and motorways
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE F42.11)
If CAVs lead to additional traffic demand, new roads might be required, leading to an increase in this sector revenues. Demand for new roads construction could instead decrease if CAVs lead to a better use of road space. Similarly, future CAVs might allow for different parking space requirements, as well as for reduced
infrastructure equipment such as signs, guardrails, rumble strips, etc.
Revenues per year Euro
Medical
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE
Q86.10) Demand for medical services would decrease if CAVs lead to less number of road accidents. Revenues per year Euro/year
Number of supplies
and doctors Doctors Number of hospital
visits /
hospitalizations
Hospital visits / Hospitalizations
SECTORS INDICATORS UNITS DATA SOURCES POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND LIKELY DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE
Legal
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE M69.10)
Revenues from liability claims could decrease if CAVs lead to fewer accidents, reducing as well the demand for attorneys.
Revenues per year (from liability claims)
Euro/year Number of attorneys
needed (specialized in personal injuries)
Attorneys
Oil and gas (production and distribution) Number of jobs (extraction) Jobs Eurostat (NACE B06, G47.3, G46.71)
This sector could suffer decreases in revenues if vehicles are more fuel efficient and less parking search time is required. Also, if there is a transition towards EVs. Revenues could instead increase in the case of a rise in VKT due to higher accessibility and repositioning of shared CAVs, or if CAVs are bigger/heavier (e.g. comfort features).
Number of jobs (retail)
Jobs Revenues per year Euro/year
Land development
Number of jobs Jobs
Eurostat (NACE H52.21, M71.11, O84.13)
Revenues in this sector could increase with more efficient parking (i.e. knowing free spaces
beforehand) but they could also decrease with less parking demand.
Revenues per year
(parking) Euro/year
Revenues per year (from NEW land developments of former parking areas)
Euro/year