The results from the Reference Scenario and the effects of the different EU options are presented in figures 8.1 to 8.3, as well as in tables 8.3 and 8.4. The results are shown relative to the situation as it was in the year 2000. Since these EU options also have an effect outside the EU, all the data presented refer to the global situation. The results from the EU options may therefore appear quite marginal in some cases, while in fact they are substantial.
Table 8.2
Assumptions for the options Animal friendly and Organic
Animal friendly Organic
All EU livestock production complies with
animal-friendly standards by 2020 By 2020, 50% of EU livestock production and 20% of EU arable land comply with organic agriculture standards
Per unit of product, 10% more feed required for
pig meat, 27% for poultry and 10% for eggs Per unit of product, 20% more feed required for pig meat, 54% for poultry and 10% for eggs No change in crop yields Crop yields 25% lower
EIGHT
EIGHT
Significant effects at global level from a reduction in the EU consumption of meat and dairy
In the Reference Scenario, the global demand for livestock products increases by almost 69% compared to that in the year 2000 (figure 8.1). In the EU options with the highest reductions in livestock production, the global increase is limited to 57% in the option -50% Animal products and 60.5% in the option Healthier diet. Given the fact that the EU population of 2030 will only account for approximately 6% of the global population, this is a significant reduction in the demand for livestock products. It also indicates that, by 2030 in the EU, people will still be eating more livestock products than the global average.
The global demand for crop products in the Reference Scenario rises by over 60%, while the demand in the options -50% Animal products and Healthier diet increases by 57.5% (figure 8.1, left). This indicates that, although the reduction in EU consumption of livestock products leads to an increase in direct human consumption of crop products, the reduction in feed demand is larger. The demand for crop products is higher in the Organic and Animal friendly options due to a less efficient feed conversion.
Figure 8.1
Reference
Healthier diet Substitution of red meat -10% Animal products -20% Animal products -50% Animal products Animal friendly Organic -20 0 20 40 60 80 % EU27+
Rest of the world
Demand for crop products
-20 0 20 40 60 80
% Demand for livestock products Effects of EU options regarding demand, 2000 – 2030
The global demand for crop and livestock products increases in all options, but in the options ‘Healthier diet’ and ‘-50% Animal products’ a global effect of these EU options can be noticed.
EIGHT
Marked effects of EU options on cropland and grassland areas outside Europe
The changes in demand for livestock and crop products are partially reflected in the areas of arable land and grassland. The global arable land area increases by just over 300 million hectares in the Reference Scenario, which is 2.5 times the size of the EU arable land area (figure 8.2; table 8.4). In the options -50% Animal products and Healthier diet, around 40 million hectares less arable land are needed worldwide; this is roughly equivalent to one third of the total EU arable land area. It is projected, however, that this reduction in arable land area (or more correctly said: the smaller expansion compared to that in the Reference Scenario) will take place outside the EU, because of increased cereal exports (that would otherwise be used for animal feed) from the EU, in addition to a decline in the import of protein-rich feed into the EU. In the options Organic and Animal friendly, an additional 6 to 16 million hectares of arable land area is needed.
The global grassland area is projected to increase by 470 million hectares in the Reference Scenario. In the options -50% Animal products and Healthier diet, around 60 million hectares less grasslands would be needed, which is roughly equivalent to the total EU grassland area.
Figure 8.2
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 million hectares EU27+
Rest of the world
Arable land area
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 million hectares Grassland area
Effects of EU options regarding agricultural land use, 2000 – 2030
Reference
Healthier diet Substitution of red meat -10% Animal products -20% Animal products -50% Animal products Animal friendly Organic
The EU options mainly result in changes in land use (compared to the Reference Scenario) outside the EU27+. Effects within the EU27+ are hardly noticeable in this graph.
EIGHT
EIGHT
EU self-sufficiency improves (slightly) when domestic feed demand is reduced
Reduction in the EU demand for livestock products and, consequently, in the demand for feed, would contribute to improved self-sufficiency. According to LEITAP model results, this would be particularly the case for sectors for which the EU is most competitive, such as cereals and pig meat (figure 8.3). For other sectors, however, differences between the options and the Reference Scenario would be rather small, because of market adaptation on the supply side. For most key commodities, self- sufficiency will remain around 100%. At first glance, most surprising are the results for oil seeds – the main source for protein rich feed, for which the EU will remain strongly dependent on imports. One would expect that a strong reduction in the consumption of animal products, such as that in the options -50% Animal products and Healthier diet, would result in a strong improvement in self-sufficiency in oil seeds. However, the model projections only suggested a minor response, as the demand for biofuels would become the main driving force behind oil-seed imports, rather than the demand for protein-rich feed. Although the model results for the Animal friendly and Organic options showed a small general decline in EU self-sufficiency.
Figure 8.3
Cereals Oil seeds
Selected crop products
Beef and veal
Pig meat, poultry meat and eggs Dairy
Animal products Effects of EU options regarding EU27+ self-sufficiency, 2030
0 25 50 75 100 125 % 0 25 50 75 100 125 % Reference Healthier diet Substitution of red meat -10% Animal products -20% Animal products -50% Animal products Animal friendly Organic
The reduction in the EU consumption of animal products is only slightly reflected in an increase in EU self-sufficiency in crop and animal products, due to different feedbacks, including an increased use of crop products for biofuel production.