Zona de Control Especial Alto Carrizal (ZCEAC)

From minimum total counts between 2004 and 2010, the number of hippopotami has remained largely stable with exception of 2005. Water scarcity, reduced natality and poaching were thought to have attributed to the 2005 decline (Meyer et al., 2005).

However, these estimations were minimal, because some areas where hippopotami are present were not covered. This is among the sources of underestimation.

139

In 2010, there was an increase in hippopotami abundance when compared to 2004 and much larger when compared to 2005. This pattern of abundance supports the report that less water in Katavi started to be experienced in 2004 after illegal damming upstream the Katuma River (Meyer et al., 2005) refer Chapter 3. This can help to explain the lowest abundance recorded during the 2005 counts reflecting the possible effects of 2004/5 drought on hippopotami abundance as drought significantly affects natality and survival of hippopotami (Lewison, 2007). In Kruger NP in South Africa, localized drought in 1988 in some sections of the rivers, resulted in hippopotami die offs, the decrease being reflected in censuses during the following year (Viljoen &

Biggs, 1998). However, despite damming and subsequent water reduction in Katavi, hippopotami abundance increased during the 2010 counts.

Increase in the hippopotami abundance in Katavi can be seen as small, but, it is a 23 % increase in abundance over five years and thus the increase is fairly substantial. Larger increases have been reported in Zambia (Tembo, 1987; Wilbroad and Milanzi, 2010), Zimbabwe (O’Connor and Campbell, 1986) and Kenya (Kanga et al., 2011a; 2011b). In Liwonde NP in Malawi, hippopotami population increased by 54 % during a period of 16 years from 1987 to 2003 after which there was no noticeable increase (Harrison et al., 2007).

In the Katavi hippopotamus population, there is a near balance in the forces determining abundance. Natality and immigration were slightly higher than mortality and emigration hence a small increase in population abundance over years compared to a 7 % annual increase recorded in Zambia (Tembo, 1987). This is supported by the fact that there were many calving incidences and calves observed during the study period, while observed dead hippopotami were very limited in number when compared with the population of hippopotami in each of the study sites. Increase in abundance from 2005 to 2010 may help to support this suggestion. The increase in abundance occurred despite natural mortality or human induced mortality reported in Katavi (Caro, 1999a; Meyer et al., 2005). Increase of hippopotami in Zambia was after

140

severe declines in the early 1900s due to diseases, hunting and drought (Marshall and Sayer, 1976).

There may be underestimation of abundance using minimum total counts due to its limitations. However, despite any shortcomings, obtained results shows that the hippopotamus populations in Katavi are stable and has not varied significantly over the years. Repeated aerial census between 1977 and 2009 and transect counts from 1995 in Katavi have indicated declines in other large mammals; however, hippopotami is not among the declining species (Caro 2011, Caro et al., 2011).

Results also indicate some important patterns in distribution and abundance of hippopotamus in Katavi NP. The most important sites where higher abundances were recorded were the sites which had water during the dry season such as Ikuu and Paradise Springs. Also, microhabitat provided by artificial water pools at some drier sites such as Ikuu Bridge and at Lake Katavi enabled hippopotami to reside during the dry season.

Counting hippopotami using ground transects is efficient although costly, slow and time consuming (Tembo, 1987; TWCM, 1995; 1998; TAWIRI, 2001; Kanga et al., 2011a), hence minimum total counts presented in this Chapter were necessary. Some consistency has been noted in hippopotami counting using ground surveys during the three years records and more detailed estimates in change of abundance were derived from minimum total counts (Table 6.2). In Queen Elizabeth NP in Uganda, counts using boats proved to be effective as repeated counts of submerging or hiding hippopotami were possible (Field and Laws, 1970). This helps to emphasize the usefulness of ground transects.

Several factors may have contributed to the observed stability and small increase in hippopotami abundance. Forage is one of the most important requirements for hippopotami apart from water (Sinclair et al., 2000; Harrison et al., 2007). There has been no significant decline in rainfall in Katavi, and therefore it can be assumed that food has been available throughout the sampling years. This has possibly led to

141

increasing population despite decline in water levels. Timing of food supply and availability (phenology) is listed as one of the factors which determine birth seasons in tropical ungulates (Sinclair et al., 2000). Due to this, it is probable that hippopotamus timing of birth has largely been determined by food supply which has been stable over the years, hence the increase in population. Prolonged drought would have led to shortened period of food supply and hence affect the birth success of hippopotami.

However, this has not been reported over the census time with the exception of the year 2004.

Mortality, both natural and through hunting and diseases were ruled out as affecting hippopotami population apart from 2004 where ‘many’ carcasses were reported (Meyer et al., 2005). Hippopotami were not on the list of most hunted species in Katavi (Caro, 2009; Caro et al., 2011), and hence an increase in abundance despite damming and decline in water level or reduced flow.

According to Waltert et al. (2008), Katavi National Park has an estimated 5694 hippopotami or a density of 1.33 hippopotami km^-2. This abundance equals the one in Kruger NP in South Africa where 2,600 counted in the 1998 in an area of 19,485 km² was considered as stable population (Viljoen & Biggs, 1998), while the entire country had an estimated 5,000 hippopotami (Eltringham, 1999). Katavi with an area of 4,700 km² can thus be considered to have a more viable population. Factors such as reduced natality during some years are thought to be a natural phenomenon, not entirely due to temporarily limiting resources. This is because reduced natality has also been reported among hippopotami in zoos (Pluhacek, 2008). Reduced natality among hippopotami in captivity occurred despite controlled environment and habitat which provide optimal physiological conditions for hippopotami (Wheaton et al., 2006). This may help to explain further the stability and smaller increases in Katavi hippopotami.

Drought remains to be a major threat to hippopotami populations as indicated by other studies reported in Section 4.1 and 4.2 and the possible effects experienced in 2005 counts. Prolonged low or no river flows might exacerbate this even further apart

142

from inadequate forage, as rainfall which determines forage availability has remained largely unchanged over the past six decades.