Economic Indicators
Presentation at
Planning & Economic Development Committee
Patrick Draper – March 4, 2009
Global GDP Economic Trends
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database -6
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Q1 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP % Change
Canada Japan United Kingdom United States
Real Gross Domestic Product (%Change)
Leading Economic Indicators
Economic Indicator
United States Canada Ontario
Exports -6% in December -9.7% in December -7.8% in December
Employment -598K jobs in January 2009
-129K jobs in January 2009
-71K jobs in January 2009 Un-
Employment
7.6% January 2009 7.2% January 2009 8.0% January 2009
Housing Starts -15.5% in December -40% in January 2009 -32% in January 2009
Home Re-sales
-15.3% in December 2008 vs. year ago
-37.3% January 2009 vs. year ago
-47% in January 2009 vs. year ago (GTA) Manufacturing
Sales
-2.9% in December -8% in December 2008 -9.2% in December 2008
Retail Sales -3.3% in December -5.4% in December 2008 -6.0% in December 2008
Source: Statistics Canada, Industry Associations and US Bureau of Economic Research
York Region Residential Building
Historical Residential Completion Data (Units)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 * 2009 *
Residential Units
Source: York Region
York Region DC Revenue
Historical Development Charge Revenue ($M)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
DC Revenue ($M)
Source: York Region
York Region DC Revenue
Monthly Development Charge Revenue ($M)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
DC Revenue ($M)
2007 2008
Source: York Region
York Region Building Permits
Total Value of Building Permits ($M)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Value ($M)
2007 2008
Source: York Region
Building Permits by Municipality
Q4 2008
% VYA
Residential
($M) ICI ($M) Total ($M) %VYA
Aurora $28.0 $1.5 $29.5 4%
East Gwillimbury $4.1 $1.0 $5.1 8%
Georgina $5.0 $0.2 $5.2 -63%
King $2.9 $3.3 $6.2 -36%
Markham $58.5 $57.9 $116.4 -57%
Newmarket $41.2 $5.0 $46.2 126%
Richmond Hill $8.2 $21.8 $30.0 -47%
Vaughan $139.8 $32.7 $172.5 -59%
Whitchurch Stouffville $35.4 $22.6 $58.0 28%
Total York Region $323.1 $146.0 $469.1 -46%
Source: York Region and Local Municipalities
York Region Advertised Job Postings
Monthly Total Job Postings (#)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
# Job Postings
2007 2008 2009
Source: York Region
Advertised Job Postings by Municipality
Q4 2008 # Jobs Posted % VYA
Aurora 383 -50%
East Gwillimbury 4 -80%
Georgina 21 -57%
King 61 -46%
Markham 3,433 -29%
Newmarket 1,100 -35%
Richmond Hill 1,177 -33%
Vaughan 1,238 -58%
Whitchurch Stouffville 51 -48%
Total York Region 9,180 -32%
Source: York Region
York Region Home Re-sales
Monthly Total Home Re-sales (#)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Units
2007 2008 2009
Source: TREB MLS
Home Re-sales by Municipality
Q4 2008 # Home Re-sales % VYA
Aurora 107 -40%
East Gwillimbury 41 -
Georgina 121 -32%
King 38 -28%
Markham 426 -45%
Newmarket 199 -27%
Richmond Hill 388 -58%
Vaughan 358 -49%
Whitchurch Stouffville 54 -44%
Total York Region 1,732 -46%
Source: TREB MLS
Bank of Canada GDP Forecasts
Source: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada January 22, 2009
Canadian GDP Growth
-0.1
0.1
1.2
-2.3
-4.8
-1
2
3.5 3.8
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
GDP % Change
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009
Actual Forecasts
