Claudius Ptolemy and Self-Promotion

Claudius Ptolemy and Self-Promotion

A study on Ptolemy’s intellectual milieu in Roman Alexandria

Cristian Tolsa Domènech

Aquesta tesi doctoral està subjecta a la llicència Reconeixement 3.0. Espanya de Creative Commons.

Esta tesis doctoral está sujeta a la licencia Reconocimiento 3.0. España de Creative Commons.

This doctoral thesis is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0. Spain License.

UNIVERSITAT DE BARCELONA

DEPARTAMENT DE FILOLOGIA GREGA

CLAUDIUS PTOLEMY

AND SELF-PROMOTION

A study on Ptolemy’s intellectual milieu in Roman Alexandria

Tesi doctoral presentada per:

Cristian Tolsa Domènech

Directora: Dra. Francesca Mestre Roca Tutora: Dra. Eulàlia Vintró Castells

Programa: Cultures i Llengües del Món Antic i la Seva Pervivència

&ODXGLXV 3WROHP\ DQG 6HOI3URPRWLRQ

$ 6WXG\ RQ 3WROHP\ۑV ,QWHOOHFWXDO 0LOLHX LQ 5RPDQ $OH[DQGULD

$ WKHVLV E\ &ULVWLDQ 7ROVD

8QLYHUVLWDW GH %DUFHORQD 'HSDUWDPHQW GH )LORORJLD *UHJD



LL

&RQWHQWV

3UHIDFH YLL

,QWURGXFWLRQ [L

 ࠮H &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ 

 3ODQ RI WKH FKDSWHU                                

 $VWURQRPLFDO PRQXPHQWV                            

 ौH WHPSOH RI 6HUDSLV DW &DQRSXV                        

 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ UHIHUHQFH WR WKH SUHFLVH SODFH RI WKH GHGLFDWLRQ   

 ौH DिUDFWLRQV RI &DQRSXV                       

 ौH FRQWHQWV RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ                          

 ौH ODVW SDUW RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ                          

 $ 7LPDHDQ DVWURQRPLFDO DQG KDUPRQLF WUDGLWLRQ 3DUDOOHOV LQ 3OXWDUFK 

 2WKHU 7LPDHDQ ORUH LQ WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ" ौH HOHPHQWV DQG WKH PHDQV                                 

 ौH GHGLFDWLRQ WR WKH ېVDYLRU JRGۑ DQG WKH 7LPDHXV               

 'RXEOH QDWXUH RI WKH VFLHQWLਭF LQTXLU\"                     

 &RQFOXVLRQV                                    

 ࠮H +DUPRQLFV 

 3ODQ RI WKH FKDSWHU                                

 3UHVHQWDWLRQ                                    

 ौH WUDGLWLRQ RI WKH VFLHQFH RI KDUPRQLFV                    

 3WROHP\ۑV PDWKHPDWLFDO KDUPRQLFV                       

 ौH SUDFWLFH RI WKH KDUPRQLF FDQRQ                   

 ौH DQDORJLF SDUW RI WKH +DUPRQLFV DQG WKH 7LPDHXV              

 (SLVWHPRORJ\ $QWLRFKXVۑ WUDGLWLRQ DQG 3WROHP\ۑV VHOIGHਭQLWLRQ  

 +DUPRQ\ RI WKH VRXO                           

 +DUPRQ\ RI WKH KHDYHQV                         

 &RQFOXVLRQV                                    

LLL

LY &217(176

 2Q WKH &ULWHULRQ DQG WKH 5XOLQJ 3ULQFLSOH 

 3ODQ RI WKH FKDSWHU                                

 3UHVHQWDWLRQ                                    

 6W\OH DQG DLP                                    

 ौH DQDORJ\ RI WKH ODZ FRXUW &ULW                      

 6LOHQWO\ FULWLFLVLQJ $ULVWRWOHۑV &DWHJRULHV &ULW                

 ,QWHOOHFW DQG SHUFHSWLRQ &ULW                         

 3UREOHPV LQ WKH FUHDWLRQ RI NQRZOHGJH &ULW               

 $ V\VWHPDWL]DWLRQ RI $ULVWRWOHۑV 2Q WKH 6RXO              

 $Q LQWURGXFWLRQ WR 3ODWRQLF GLDOHFWLF                 

 ौH ODVW SDUW 2Q WKH SODFH RI WKH KHJHPRQLND &ULW           

 &RQFOXVLRQV                                    

 ([DFW SURSRUWLRQV LQ 3WROHP\نV ZRUNV 

 3ODQ RI WKH FKDSWHU                                

 ې&HQWHUVۑ $OP *HRJU 7HWU +DUP                       

 ौH VWUXFWXUH    HTXDO SDUWV &, +DUP &ULW                

 9DUUR DQG 9LWUXYLXV                           

 ौH FRQFHSW RI FHQWHU LQ 9LWUXYLXV                        

 ौH ਭYHIROG SDUWLWLRQ DQG HGXFDWLRQ                      

 ौH LQਮXHQFH RI UKHWRULFDO HGXFDWLRQ LQ 3WROHP\ۑV &ULWHULRQ     

 ौH PDWKHPDWLFDO DQG SKLORVRSKLFDO GLVFLSOLQHV LQ WKH *UDHFR5RPDQ HGXFDWLRQ                                 

 &RQFOXVLRQV                                    

 :KR ZDV 3WROHP\نV GHGLFDWHH 6\UXV" 

 3ODQ RI WKH FKDSWHU                                

 ,QWURGXFWLRQ                                    

 ौH ZRUNV GHGLFDWHG WR 6\UXV                           

 ौH $OPDJHVW                               

 ौH 3ODQHWDU\ +\SRWKHVHV DQG WKH +DQG\ 7DEOHV            

 ौH 7HWUDELEORV                              

 ौH $QDOHPPD DQG WKH 3ODQLVSKDHULXP                 

 &RQFOXVLRQV RI WKH VXUYH\                        

 2Q WKH VHDUFK IRU 6\UXV                              

 ې6\UXVۑ DQ HWKQLF QDPH                          

 ौH 5RPDQ FRJQRPHQ ې6XUDۑ LQ *UHHN ۋ ौH ਭUVW YRZHO ͰͶ RU Ͷ"  

 ौH HQGLQJ                                

 0 3HWURQLXV 6XUD                             

 &RQFOXVLRQV 3WROHP\ DQG SDWURQDJH                      

&217(176 Y

 $ QHZ VWDJH LQ 3WROHP\نV FDUHHU" 

 3ODQ RI WKH FKDSWHU                                

 ौH SUHIDFH RI WKH $OPDJHVW                           

 3WROHP\ SUHVHQWV KLPVHOI DV SKLORVRSKHUWHDFKHU WKH LQਮXHQFHV RI 3ODWR DQG $UFK\WDV                            

 $ 3ODWRQLF SKLORVRSK\ ZKHUH SUDFWLFDO OLIH LV LPSRUWDQW        

 0DWKHPDWLFV PHGLDWLQJ EHWZHHQ SK\VLFV DQG WKHRORJ\        

 ौH DUJXPHQW DERXW PDWKHPDWLFV DV WKH RQO\ VHFXUH NQRZOHGJH DS

SURSULDWLQJ ORJLF                             

 &RQFOXVLRQV                                

 ौH HSLJUDP                                    

 3WROHP\ۑV HSLJUDP DPRQJ RWKHU SRHPV UHODWHG WR PDWKHPDWLFV   

 ौH WUDGLWLRQ RI FDWDVWHULVP LQ *UDHFR5RPDQ SRHWU\         

 3WROHP\ۑV HSLJUDP RQ WKH LGHDO OLIH                   

 +RUDFHۑV $UFK\WDV RGH                          

 &RQFOXVLRQV                                

&RQFOXVLRQ 

%LEOLRJUDSK\ 

YL &217(176

3UHIDFH

ौH DLP RI WKLV VWXG\ LV WR VLWXDWH &ODXGLXV 3WROHP\ ZLWKLQ WKH VRFLDO DQG HSLVWHPRORJLFDO FRQWH[W RI KLV WLPH DQG SODFH RI DFWLYLW\ ौHVH ODिHU FRRUGLQDWHV DUH WKH VHFRQG FHQWXU\

&( DQG $OH[DQGULD ौH VRFLDO FRQWH[W LV WKH 5RPDQ 3ULQFLSDWH RI +DGULDQ DQG $QWRQLQXV

DQG $OH[DQGULD DV WKH FDSLWDO FLW\ LQ WKH VSHFLDOO\ LPSRUWDQW SURYLQFH RI (J\SW JRYHUQHG E\ DQ HTXHVWULDQ SUHIHFW ौH WKHVLV DUJXHV WKDW 3WROHP\ VHULRXVO\ HQJDJHG LQ D EDVLF DUHQD RI VRFLDO FRPSHWLWLRQ LQ WKLV FRQWH[W ZKLFK LV NQRZOHGJH , VKDOO VWXG\ WKH ZD\V LQ ZKLFK 3WROHP\ FDQ EH VKRZQ WR HQJDJH LQ VXFK FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP WKH GLVSOD\ RI KLV DVWURQRP\

RQ DQ LQVFULSWLRQ WR KLV PDJQLਭFHQW SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH $OPDJHVW DQG PDLQO\ WKURXJK D GHOLEHUDWH VHOISUHVHQWDWLRQ DV D SKLORVRSKHUPDWKHPDWLFLDQ , ZLOO RQO\ H[SORUH LQ GHWDLO WKH ZRUNV WKDW KDYH EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG HDUO\ LQ 3WROHP\ۑV SURGXFWLRQ PDLQO\ EHFDXVH LQ WKHP ZH FDQ ਭQG PDQ\ PRUH FOXHV WR 3WROHP\ۑV VHOIGHਭQLWLRQ

0\ EDVLF LQਮXHQFHV DUH 5HYLHO 1HW]ۑV VWXGLHV RQ WKH VRFLDO PLOLHX RI WKH +HOOHQLVWLF PDWKHPDWLFLDQV ERWK DV SDUW RI KLV ࡋH 6KDSLQJ RI 'HGXFWLRQ LQ *UHHN 0DWKHPDWLFV 1HW]

 DQG RI /XGLF 3URRI 1HW]  2Q WKH SHULRG H[SORUHG KHUH WKH UHFHQW DSSURDFKHV WR VFLHQWLVWV FROOHFWHG LQ .¸QLJ DQG :KLWPDUVKۑV 2UGHULQJ .QRZOHGJH LQ WKH 5RPDQ (PSLUH .¸QLJ DQG :KLWPDUVK  KDYH EHHQ YHU\ LQVSLULQJ ौHUH LV DOVR WKH YROXPH ZLWK FRO

OHFWHG SDSHUV HGLWHG E\ *LOO :KLWPDUVK DQG :LONLQV *DOHQ DQGWKH :RUOGRI .QRZOHGJH *LOO HW DO  DOWKRXJK WKH QXPHURXV GLJUHVVLRQV RI *DOHQ RQ KLV ZULWLQJ FRQWH[W QRW RQO\ SURYLGH SRVVLEOH SDUDOOHOV IRU 3WROHP\ EXW DOVR SURGXFH HQY\ IRU WKH HYLGHQW FRQWUDVW

YLL

YLLL 35()$&(

ZLWK 3WROHP\ۑV VLOHQFH

ौH PDLQ FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV WKH FRQWH[WXDOL]DWLRQ RI D FUXFLDO PDWKH

PDWLFDO DXWKRU &ODXGLXV 3WROHP\ ZLWKLQ WKH LQWHOOHFWXDO ZRUOG LQ ZKLFK KH OLYHG LQFOXGLQJ SKLORVRSK\ OLWHUDU\ WUDGLWLRQV UKHWRULFDO SUDFWLFH DQG SDWURQDJH

1RZ , ZLOO EULHਮ\ H[SODLQ WKH FRQWHQWV RI WKH FKDSWHUV ौH ਭUVW WKUHH FKDSWHUV GHDO ZLWK LQGLYLGXDO ZRUNV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ WKH +DUPRQLFV DQG WKH

&ULWHULRQ ,Q WKH IRXUWK FKDSWHU , ZLOO DQDOL]H IRUPDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV REVHUYDEOH LQ WKH GLV

WULEXWLRQ RI WKH WH[W LQ WKHVH WKUHH ZRUNV ۋZKLFK , ZLOO VWXG\ ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI DQFLHQW HGXFDWLRQۋ DV ZHOO DV LQ RWKHUV ौH ਭ़K FKDSWHU DGGUHVVHV D VSHFLਭF VRFLDO FRQQHFWLRQ RI 3WROHP\ GHDOLQJ ZLWK WKH GHGLFDWHH RI KDOI RI KLV H[WDQW ZRUNV 6\UXV IRU ZKRP , ZLOO SURSRVH DQ LGHQWLਭFDWLRQ ,Q WKH ਭUVW SDUW RI WKLV FKDSWHU WKH UHVW RI 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUNV DUH UHYLHZHG VR LW LV D JRRG SODFH WR ORRN DW IRU WKH FRQWHQWV RI LQGLYLGXDO ZRUNV ,Q WKH VL[WK DQG ਭQDO FKDSWHU , H[SORUH WKH VLPLODULWLHV DQG WKH GLਬHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH VHOISUHVHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH $OPDJHVW DQG LQ WKH WKUHH ZRUNV VWXGLHG LQ WKH ਭUVW FKDSWHUV ZLWK WKLV DLP , DQDO\]H ERWK WKH SUHIDFH RI WKH $OPDJHVW DQG DQ HSLJUDP SUHVHYHG EHIRUH WKH SUHIDFH

)LQDOO\ P\ WKDQNV JR ਭUVW WR WKH VFKRODUVKLS SURYLGHG E\ WKH 6SDQLVK 0LQLVWHULR GH (G

XFDFLµQ IRU IRXU \HDUVۑ DOPRVW IXOOWLPH GHGLFDWLRQ )38 UHI $3 WKHQ WR -DXPH 6DVWUH ZKR GHFLGHG WR VKDUH ZLWK PH KLV LQWHUHVW LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI DQFLHQW PDWKHPDWLFV DQG KHOSHG PH JUHDWO\ LQ WKH ਭUVW VWDJH RI P\ UHVHDUFK DQG WR 5HYLHO 1HW] ZKR WXWRUHG P\ VWD\

RI WKUHH PRQWKV IURP 6HSWHPEHU WR 1RYHPEHU  DW WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI &ODVVLFV DW WKH 6WDQIRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 5HYLHO 1HW] DOVR NLQGO\ UHDG WKH FKDSWHUV RI WKH WKHVLV LQ D ਭUVW SKDVH RI UHGDFWLRQ PDNLQJ YHU\ XVHIXO FULWLFLVPV RI ZKLFK , KRSH WR KDYH WDNHQ DGYDQWDJH , DOVR WKDQN WKH RUJDQL]HUV RI V\PSRVLD DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ &DUORV ,,, RI 0DGULG  DQG DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 0DQFKHVWHU UHFHQWO\  DQG WR P\ UHVHDUFK JURXS ې*UDHFLD &DSWDۑ LQ WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI *UHHN 3KLORORJ\ DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI %DUFHORQD ZKLFK RUJDQL]HG WKH ې6HFRQG 6RSKLVWLF 6HPLQDUVۑ EHFDXVH LQ DOO WKHVH SODFHV , KDYH EHHQ DEOH WR SUHVHQW DQG GLVFXVV P\

UHVHDUFK , DOVR WKDQN 0DU 0£UTXH] ZKR KDV NLQGO\ UHDG DQG FRUUHFWHG VRPH RI P\ SDSHUV

L[

KHOSLQJ PH ZLWK VXFK DQ LPSRUWDQW PDिHU DV VFLHQWLਭF FRPPXQLFDWLRQ $V UHJDUGV WKH PHPEHUV RI P\ GHSDUWPHQW (UQHVW 0DUFRV UHDG QHDUO\ WKH ZKROH PDQXVFULSW RI WKH WKHVLV LQ WKH VXPPHU RI  LQ D UHFRUG WLPLQJ 3DX *LODEHUW UHDG DQG FRPPHQWHG D SDSHU RQ WKH

&ULWHULRQ WKH FKDSWHU RQ WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ ZDV UHDG DQG IHHGEDFNHG E\ -DXPH 3´UWX

ODV , DOVR WKDQN WKH PHPEHUV RI WKH FRPLWHH ZKR ZLOO UHDG DQG HYDOXDWH WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ

$QG ਭQDOO\ , WKDQN P\ WXWRU )UDQFHVFD 0HVWUH ZKR KDV EHHQ VXSSRUWLQJ DQG HQFRXUDJLQJ PH LQ PDQ\ ZD\V WKURXJKRXW WKH ZKROH SURFHVV ERWK FRQFHGLQJ PH WKH UHODWLYH IUHHGRP , ZLVKHG IRU P\ SURMHFW DQG PDNLQJ DOZD\V YHU\ XVHIXO VXJJHVWLRQV DERXW WKH JHQHUDO DLP DV ZHOO DV WKH GHWDLOV UHJDUGLQJ WKH VW\OH RI WKH WH[W ,W JRHV ZLWKRXW VD\LQJ WKDW GHVSLWH WKH KHOS RI DOO WKHVH SHRSOH DQG WKH PDQ\ PRUH ZKLFK , KDYH RPLिHG WKH HUURUV , KDYH FRPPLWHG DUH RQO\ PLQH

[ 35()$&(

,QWURGXFWLRQ

ौLV VWXG\ LV JRLQJ WR EH DERXW WKH PDWKHPDWLFLDQ &ODXGLXV 3WROHP\ ۋPRVWO\ NQRZQ E\ KLV DVWURQRPLFDO WUHDWLVH $OPDJHVWۋ DQG KLV ZRUNLQJ FRQWH[W $OH[DQGHU -RQHV VXPPDUL]HV WKH FRPPXQLV RSLQLR DERXW RXU VXEMHFW LQ WKH IROORZLQJ ZD\ LQ KLV LQWURGXFWLRQ RI D YROXPH RI FROOHFWHG HVVD\V DERXW 3WROHP\ۑV LQਮXHQFH{

$PRQJ WKH VFLHQWLਭF DXWKRUV RI WKH DQFLHQW *UDHFR5RPDQ ZRUOG QRQH JLYHV XV VXFK D VWURQJ LPSUHVVLRQ RI ZULWLQJ IRU SRVWHULW\ DV 3WROHP\ +H OLYHV LQ D WLPH ZKHQ OHDUQHG DQG HORTXHQW PHQ VHHN DQG DिDLQ SXEOLF DGXODWLRQ DQG SULYDWH SDWURQDJH ZKHQ WKH SK\VLFLDQ *DOHQ SHUIRUPV GLVVHFWLRQV RI SLJV DQG VKHHS EHIRUH WKH HOLWH RI 5RPH DQG ZKHQ WKH VRSKLVW $OH[DQGHU WKH ې&OD\ 3ODWRۑ GD]]OHV WKH $WKHQLDQ PDVVHV DV PXFK E\ KLV JURRPLQJ DQG GHSRUWPHQW DV E\ KLV GHFODPDWLRQ )URP WKLV PLOLHX 3WROHP\ LV XिHUO\ UHPRWH 2XWVLGH RI KLV ERRNV KH LV QRWKLQJ QR FRQWHPSRUDU\ PHQWLRQV WKH PDQ DQG QR ODWHU DFFRXQW RI KLV OLIH RU SHUVRQ ZLOO SUHVHUYH DQ DXWKHQWLF UHSRUW +H DGGUHVVHV KLV ERRNV ZLWKRXW ਮRXULVK WR D FHUWDLQ 6\URV DERXW ZKRP ZH NQRZ QRWKLQJ DQG LQ WKHP WKHUH LV QR SHUVRQDOLW\ QR UHIHUHQFH WR KLPVHOI DV DQ REVHUYHU VFKRODU DQG WKHRUHWLFLDQ

QR DOOXVLRQ WR KLV HQYLURQPHQW

0\ DLP WKURXJKRXW ZLOO EH WR TXDOLI\ WKLV SLFWXUH 3HUKDSV WKH FUXFLDO TXHVWLRQ ZRXOG EH

GRHV RXU ODFN RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW 3WROHP\ LPSO\ WKDW KH LV ېXिHUO\ UHPRWHۑ IURP *DOHQۑV ZRUOG IURP RUDWRUV DQG IURP WKH TXHVW IRU SULYDWH SDWURQDJH"

,W LV WUXH WKDW 3WROHP\ۑV SHUVRQDOLW\ DOPRVW GLVDSSHDUV LQ KLV ERRNV EXW WKLV LV FRPPRQ WR WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO VW\OH RI DOO WLPHV LW LV IRU WKLV UHDVRQ WKDW ZH KDYH LQGHHG YHU\ OLिOH

{-RQHV  [L

[L

[LL ,1752'8&7,21 LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH VRFLDO FODVV ZLWKLQ ZKLFK DQFLHQW PDWKHPDWLFLDQV ZHUH DFWLYH 1HW]

  5HYLHO 1HW] VWXGLHG WKH WH[WXUH RI *UHHN PDWKHPDWLFDO WH[WV VKRZLQJ KRZ LWV SUHFLVH IRUPDO UHVWULFWLRQV IXQFWLRQ DV GHਭQLWLRQ RI JHQUH 1HW]  FKDSWHUV  0DWKH

PDWLFDO WUHDWLVHV GR WUDGLWLRQDOO\ QRW DOORZ IRU GLJUHVVLRQV WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO WH[W LV DOZD\V SHUIRUPLQJ PDWKHPDWLFV 6R ZH GRQۑW KDYH WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR OHDUQ DERXW 3WROHP\ۑV VRFLDO PLOLHX LQ WKH VDPH ZD\ WKDW ZH OHDUQ DERXW *DOHQ

ौH GHPRJUDSK\ RI DQFLHQW PDWKHPDWLFV VHHPV WR SURYLGH QHJDWLYH HYLGHQFH IRU WKH TXHVWLRQ ZKHWKHU PDWKHPDWLFV SOD\HG DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH SROLWLFDO DQG VRFLDO DUHQD

LQ WKH VDPH ZRUN 1HW] VKRZHG WKDW PDWKHPDWLFLDQV ZHUH D WLQ\ JURXS EDVLFDOO\ ZLWKRXW VFKRRO VWUXFWXUHV 1HW]  

3UREDEO\ WKH SHDNPRPHQW LQ WKH GHPRJUDSK\ RI *UHHN PDWKHPDWLFLDQV ZDV WKH +HO

OHQLVWLF SHULRG ZLWK D IRFXV LQ $OH[DQGULD 1HW] VWXGLHG WKH FRPPRQ DHVWKHWLFV RI WKH QHW RI PDWKHPDWLFLDQV WKDW FDQ EH VHHQ RSHUDWLQJ LQ WKLV SHULRG ZKR DV ZH NQRZ IURP WKH SUHVHUYHG OHिHUV LQWURGXFLQJ WKH WUHDWLVHV ZURWH WKHLU WUHDWLVHV IRU HDFK RWKHU 1HW]  )URP WKLV SHULRG ZH KDYH WKH HYLGHQFH WKDW (UDWRVWKHQHV ۋZKR ZDV QHYHUWKHOHVV QRW RQO\

D PDWKHPDWLFLDQۋ HQMR\HG WKH SDWURQDJH RI WKH 3WROHPDLF $OH[DQGULDQ NLQJV

,Q WKH 5RPDQ SHULRG WKH VFHQDULR VHHPV WR EH GLਬHUHQW IURP +HOOHQLVWLF WLPHV ZH GRQۑW KHDU DQ\PRUH DERXW PDWKHPDWLFLDQV VHQGLQJ WUHDWLVHV WR HDFK RWKHU DQG WKH WRSLFV RI WKHLU ZRUNV DUH OHVV VSHFLDOL]HG ौH WUHDWLVHV RI 9LWUXYLXV +HUR DQG 1LFRPDFKXV VKRZ DQ DW

WHPSW WR PDNH DFFHVVLEOH ODUJH ERGLHV RI WHFKQLFDO NQRZOHGJH WR QRQH[SHUWV 9LWUXYLXV LV WKH FOHDUHVW FDVH VLQFH KH ZULWHV KLV WUHDWLVH IRU $XJXVWXV DQG KH SUHVHQWV WKH FRQWHQWV ۋZKLFK H[WHQG QRW RQO\ WR DUFKLWHFWXUH EXW DOVR WR PDQ\ RWKHU EUDQFKHV RI WKH VFLHQFHVۋ LQ DQ HOHPHQWDU\ ZD\ +HUR RI $OH[DQGULD SHUKDSV OHVV REYLRXVO\ VR DOVR WULHG WR FRQQHFW YDU

LRXV WHFKQLFDO GLVFLSOLQHV DQG LQWURGXFH WKHP ZLWK SKLORVRSKLFDO FRPPHQWV 1LFRPDFKXV ZURWH WUHDWLVHV RQ HOHPHQWDU\ PDWKHPDWLFV DQG PXVLF WKHRU\ WKDW FRXOG KDYH VHUYHG WR XQGHUVWDQG 3ODWRۑV PDWKHPDWLFV 3WROHP\ DOWKRXJK SHUKDSV WKH PRVW PDWKHPDWLFDOO\ GH

PDQGLQJ DPRQJ WKHVH DXWKRUV VKRZV DQDORJRXV IHDWXUHV KLV $OPDJHVW LV D V\VWHPDWL]DWLRQ

[LLL RI *UHHN DVWURQRP\ DV KH KLPVHOI GHFODUHV DQG KLV SUHIDFH LV IXOO RI 3ODWRQLF SKLORVRSK\

3HUKDSV WKLV SUHIDFH LV WKH RQO\ H[FHSWLRQ WR -RQHVۑ DVVHUWLRQ WKDW 3WROHP\ DGGUHVVHV KLV ERRNV WR 6\UXV ZLWKRXW ਮRXULVK +RZHYHU LW LV DQ LPSRUWDQW H[FHSWLRQ WKH $OPDJHVW ZDV D ELJ ZRUN LQ  ERRNV $V SDUW RI KHU UHFHQW GLVVHUWDWLRQ DERXW WHFKQLFDO HFSKUDVLV &RXUW

QH\ 5RE\ VWXGLHG WKHVH JHQHUDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WHFKQLFDO WUHDWLVHV LQ WKH 5RPDQ ZRUOG LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK WKH FRQWH[W RI WKHLU DXWKRUV 5RE\ t

'RHV WKLV QRW VXJJHVW WKDW PDWKHPDWLFLDQV HQWHUHG WR VRPH H[WHQW WKH ZRUOG RI FRPPRQ NQRZOHGJH LQ 5RPDQ WLPHV" :KDW DSSHDU WR EH WKH ਭUVW WUHDWLVHV RI 3WROHP\ ۋWKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ WKH +DUPRQLFV DQG WKH &ULWHULRQۋ VHHP WR DGGUHVV UHFRJQLVHG GLVFLSOLQHV SHU

WDLQLQJ WR WKH HQN\NOLRV SDLGHLD DVWURQRP\ PXVLF DQG ORJLF 2I FRXUVH QRW HYHU\ OHLVXUHG 5RPDQ ZDV LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKHVH GLVFLSOLQHV DV LQ UKHWRULF ۋZKLFK ZDV QHFHVVDU\ IRU SXEOLF OLIHۋ EXW QHYHUWKHOHVV WKHUH ZDV D GHPDQG IRU LW ौH H[WDQW HOHPHQWDU\ WUHDWLVHV RQ DV

WURQRP\ DQG PXVLF DUH DQ HYLGHQFH IRU WKLV DV ZHOO DV WKH FDVXDO UHPDUNV RQ DVWURQRP\

DQG KDUPRQLFV LQ DXWKRUV VXFK DV 3OXWDUFK DQG 3KLOR RI $OH[DQGULD ौHQ WKHUH LV DW OHDVW WKH WKHRUHWLFDO SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW VRPH LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ UHDFKLQJ DQ DGYDQFHG NQRZOHGJH LQ WKHVH DUHDV DV DQ H[WHQVLRQ RI WKHLU LQWHUPHGLDWH HGXFDWLRQ ,W LV WKHQ SRVVLEOH WKDW 3WROHP\ KDG EHJDQ KLV FDUHHU DV RQH RI WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV 3WROHP\ۑV GHGLFDWHH 6\UXV PD\ KDYH EHHQ DQRWKHU VXFK LQGLYLGXDO

*LYHQ P\ REMHFWLYH RI DVVHVVLQJ WKH GHJUHH LQ ZKLFK 3WROHP\ ZDV LQ WKH PDLQVWUHDP

*UDHFR5RPDQ FXOWXUH , ZLOO VHHN WKRXJKRXW P\ GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU IHDWXUHV RI 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUNV RFFXUULQJ LQ QRQPDWKHPDWLFDO DXWKRUV ौH PRUH VXFK IHDWXUHV , DP DEOH WR FRO

OHFW DQG H[SODLQ WKH PRUH , ZLOO EH DEOH WR FODLP WKDW 3WROHP\ ZDV ZLWKLQ WKH ZRUOG RI KLV PRUH YLVLEOH FRQWHPSRUDULHV

1RZ , ZLOO GLVFXVV VSHFLਭF ELEOLRJUDSK\ RQ 3WROHP\ 7R P\ NQRZOHGJH WKHUH LV QR SUHYLRXV VWXG\ IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH VRFLDO PLOLHX RI 3WROHP\ 5RE\ۑV DERYHPHQWLRQHG GLVVHUWD

WLRQ EHLQJ SHUKDSV WKH FORVHVW DSSUR[LPDWLRQ WR LW +RZHYHU WKH SKLORVRSK\ LQ 3WROHP\ۑV

t6HH RQ 9LWUXYLXV 3WROHP\ DQG +HUR HJ 5RE\  

[LY ,1752'8&7,21 ZRUNV ZKLFK ZLOO KDYH D IXQGDPHQWDO UROH IRU P\ VWXG\ KDV EHHQ VWXGLHG ERWK E\ /LED 7DXE 7DXE  ۋDOWKRXJK VKH GLG QRW LQFOXGH WKH ZKROO\ SKLORVRSKLFDO WUHDWLVH &ULWH

ULRQۋ DQG ODWHU E\ -DFTXHOLQH )HNH LQ KHU GLVVHUWDWLRQ )HNH  ौHVH ZHUH SUREDEO\ WKH ਭUVW FRPSUHKHQVLYH VWXGLHV RI 3WROHP\ۑV SKLORVRSK\ D़HU WKDW RI %ROO LQ  %ͰOO  $ YHU\ LPSRUWDQW FRQWULEXWLRQ LQ EHWZHHQ ZDV WKDW RI $QWKRQ\ $ /RQJ ZLWK DQ HVVD\ DERXW 3WROHP\ۑV &ULWHULRQ WR ZKLFK , RZH PXFK /RQJ 

:KLOH 7DXE HPSKDVLVHG KRZ SUREOHPDWLF ZDV WKH DVFULSWLRQ WR 3ODWR RU $ULVWRWOH RI 3WROHP\ۑV SKLORVRSKLFDO RSLQLRQV QHFHVVDULO\ TXHVWLRQLQJ VRPH RI %ROOۑV DVVHUWLRQV )HNH VXFFHVVIXOO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH FRKHUHQFH RI 3WROHP\ۑV SKLORVRSK\ WKURXJKRXW DOO KLV ZRUNV

DQG FRQWH[WXDOL]HG LW ZLWKLQ WKH 0LGGOH 3ODWRQLF DQG $ULVWRWHOLDQ FRPPHQWDU\ WUDGLWLRQ RI KLV WLPH +RZHYHU VLQFH )HNHۑV DLP ZDV EDVLFDOO\ WR VKRZ 3WROHP\ۑV FRKHUHQFH VKH QHJOHFWHG LVVXHV VXFK DV WKH SRVVLEOH HYROXWLRQ LQ WKH XVH RI SKLORVRSK\ LQ 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUNV

WKH LPPHGLDWH SODXVLEOH FRQWH[W RI 3WROHP\ۑV SKLORVRSK\ LQ KLV $OH[DQGULDQ HGXFDWLRQ DQG WKH PRWLYDWLRQ IRU WKH XVH RI VXFK SKLORVRSK\ LQ KLV ZRUNV ौHVH DUH SUHFLVHO\ WKH IDFWRUV RQ ZKLFK , ZLOO IRFXV RU UDWKHU WKH IDFWRUV WRZDUGV , ZLOO ]RRP RXW

ौH VFLHQWLਭF DVSHFW RI 3WROHP\ KDV EHHQ ZHOO VWXGLHG HVSHFLDOO\ IRU LQGLYLGXDO ZRUNV

ौH ELEOLRJUDSK\ LV ODUJH VR , ZLOO RQO\ SURYLGH WKH UHIHUHQFHV ZKLFK KDYH EHHQ PRVW XVHIXO IRU P\ VWXG\ DQG WKH RQHV ZKLFK DUH PRUH UHOHYDQW LQ JHQHUDO ौXV IRU WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULS

WLRQ ZH KDYH WKH LPSRUWDQW SDSHU E\ +DPLOWRQ 6ZHUGORZ DQG 7RRPHU VKRZLQJ WKDW WKH LQVFULSWLRQ SUHGDWHG WKH $OPDJHVW +DPLOWRQ HW DO  DQG 6ZHUGORZۑV PRUH UHFHQW VWXG\

DERXW WKH ODVW SDUW RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ WR ZKLFK , DP LQGHEWHG IRU KLV VWXG\ RI WKH SRVVLEOH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH DVWURQRPLFDO SDUW DQG WKH PXVLFDO VHFWLRQ DW WKH HQG 6ZHUGORZ  2QO\ D \HDU ODWHU FDPH -RQHVۑ HGLWLRQ DQG DQQRWDWHG WUDQVODWLRQ RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ ZKLFK VHWV P\ VWDUWLQJSRLQW IRU WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKH SODFLQJ RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ -RQHV D -RQHVۑ HGLWLRQ RI DQRWKHU DVWURQRPLFDO LQVFULSWLRQ WKH VRFDOOHG .HVNLQWRV LQVFULSWLRQ KDV DOVR EHHQ LPSRUWDQW LQ P\ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ E\ 3WROHP\ -RQHV



[Y

$V UHJDUGV 3WROHP\ۑV +DUPRQLFV WKH ਭUVW QDPH WKDW FRPHV WR PLQG LV WKDW RI $QGUHZ

%DUNHU ZKR DSDUW IURP WUDQVODWLQJ DQG DQQRWDWLQJ WKH PDMRU SDUW RI WKH *UHHN FRUSXV RI PXVLFDO WKHRULVWV LQFOXGLQJ 3WROHP\ %DUNHU  DOVR PDGH DQ LPSRUWDQW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO SDUW RI 3WROHP\ۑV +DUPRQLFV LQ D PRUH UHFHQW ERRN %DUNHU  $JDLQ %DUNHU LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU P\ VXUYH\ RI WKH $ULVWR[HQLDQ DQG WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQ WUDGLWLRQV RI PXVLF WKHRU\ LQ WKH 5RPDQ ZRUOG ZKLFK KH VWXGLHG EHWZHHQ WKHVH WZR SURMHFWV %DUNHU  ौH ERRN E\ 'DYLG &UHHVH RQ WKH KDUPRQLF FDQRQ LV DOVR YHU\ LQWHUHVWLQJ EHFDXVH LW IRFXVHV RQ DQ LPSRUWDQW GHYLFH XVHG E\ 3WROHP\ LQ KLV WUHDWLVH &UHHVH 

)RU WKH PDWKHPDWLFV LQ WKH $OPDJHVW ZH KDYH WKH XVHIXO VWXG\ RI 3HGHUVHQ ZKLFK , KDYH XVHG DOVR IRU P\ DFFRXQW RI WKH 3ODQHWDU\ +\SRWKHVHV 3HGHUVHQ  UHY HG 

ौHUH DUH PDQ\ SXEOLFDWLRQV E\ -DPHV (YDQV WKDW VHUYH DV D JRRG LQWURGXFWLRQ WR 3WROHP\ۑV DVWURQRPLFDO PHWKRGV DQG WR DQFLHQW DVWURQRP\ LQ JHQHUDO (YDQV  (YDQV  ौH QRZ FODVVLFDO WUDQVODWLRQ RI WKH $OPDJHVW LV WKDW RI 7RRPHU ZKLFK FRPHV ZLWK D VXPPDU\

LQWURGXFWLRQ 7RRPHU 

ौH $OPDJHVW LV SHUKDSV WKH ZRUN ZLWK PRVW ELEOLRJUDSK\ DOWKRXJK QRW HVSHFLDOO\ PRG

HUQ WKLV LV PDLQO\ GXH WR WKH FULWLFDO DिHQWLRQ LW UHFHLYHG IROORZLQJ 'XKHPۑV FRQWURYHUVLDO HVVD\ ZKLFK VXJJHVWHG D QRQHPSLULFDO LQWHQWLRQ IRU YDULRXV EUDQFKHV RI DQFLHQW QDWXUDO VFLHQFH 'XKHP  VW HG  ौLV ZDV HVSHFLDOO\ LQਮXHQW IRU DVWURQRP\ LQ SDUWLFX

ODU LQ WKH FDVH RI 3WROHP\ۑV $OPDJHVW SHUKDSV WKH DQFLHQW WH[W ZKHUH 'XKHPۑV WKHVLV FRXOG EHVW EH WHVWHG ,Q SDUW WKLV FRQWURYHUV\ SURGXFHG WKH LQਮXHQWLDO ERRN E\ WKH DVWURQRPHU 5

5 1HZWRQ ࡋH FULPH RI &ODXGLXV 3WROHP\ 1HZWRQ  ZLWK H[WUHPH DFFXVDWLRQV DJDLQVW WKH HPSLULFLW\ DQG WKH VLQFHULW\ RI 3WROHP\ۑV PHWKRGV ौLV KDV JHQHUDWHG D YDVW DPRXQW RI OLWHUDWXUH RI ZKLFK , ZLOO FLWH RQO\ VRPH LQVWDQFHV *ROGVWHLQ  /OR\G  *HXV  ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR TXRWH /OR\G FRQFOXVLRQV DERXW KLV VXUYH\ RI 'XKHPۑV FRQWURYHUV\u

:KHUH ZH PD\ ZHOO DJUHH WKDW WKH DVWURQRPHUV OLNH RWKHU VFLHQWLVWV R़HQ

u/OR\G  

[YL ,1752'8&7,21 VLPSOLਭHG WKHLU SUREOHPV DQG VRPHWLPHV DGYDQFHG SRVLWLRQV IRU WKH VDNH RI DUJXPHQW 'XKHP DJDLQ H[DJJHUDWHG LQ UHSUHVHQWLQJ *UHHN DVWURQRPLFDO K\

SRWKHVHV LQ JHQHUDO DV DGRSWHG SXUHO\ IRU WKH VDNH RI FDOFXODWLRQV '\QDPLFDO DQG RWKHU SK\VLFDO IDFWRUV DV ZHOO DV FRQVLGHUDWLRQV RI PDWKHPDWLFDO VLPSOLFLW\

FRXOG EH DSSHDOHG WR LQ GHFLGLQJ EHWZHHQ WKHRULHV

/HW XV QRZ JR RQ ZLWK WKH UHVW RI WKH ZRUNV 3WROHP\ۑV DVWURORJ\ LV QRW YHU\ ZHOO UHSUHVHQWHG LQ UHFHQW ELEOLRJUDSK\ DOWKRXJK DJDLQ $QWKRQ\ $ /RQJ SXEOLVKHG DQ HVVD\ IRFXVLQJ RQ D WRSLF UHOHYDQW IRU P\ VKRUW VXUYH\ RI 3WROHP\ۑV 7HWUDELEORV WKH SKLORVRSKLFDO GHEDWH RYHU WKH SULQFLSOHV RI DVWURORJ\ /RQJ  ौHUH KDV EHHQ SXEOLVKHG D UHODWLYHO\ UHFHQW HGLWLRQ RI WKH WH[W IRU WKH 7HXEQHU FROOHFWLRQ E\ : +¾EQHU +¾EQHU 

5HODWLQJ WR WKH PRVW WHFKQLFDO H[WDQW ZRUNV RI 3WROHP\ WKH $QDOHPPD DQG WKH 3ODQLV

SKDHULXP 1DWKDQ 6LGROLۑV GLVVHUWDWLRQ DERXW WKH DSSOLHG PDWKHPDWLFV XVHG E\ 3WROHP\ KDV EHHQ YHU\ XVHIXO IRU P\ DVVHVVPHQW RI 3WROHP\ۑV PHWKRGV DQG DLPV LQ WKHVH GLਯFXOW WUHD

WLVHV 6LGROL 

$ERXW WKH *HRJUDSK\ DQG WKH 2SWLFV , ZLOO VD\ YHU\ OLिOH EXW LW ZRXOG EH XVHIXO WR SUR

YLGH VRPH ELEOLRJUDSK\ WKH ZKROH *UHHN WH[W RI WKH *HRJUDSK\ KDV UHFHQWO\ EHHQ WKH REMHFW RI D QHZ HGLWLRQ LQ WZR YROXPHV ZLWK D *HUPDQ WUDQVODWLRQ 6W¾FNHOEHUJHU DQG *UDVVKRI

 DQG %HUJJUHQ DQG -RQHV KDG SUHYLRXVO\ WUDQVODWHG DQG DQQRWDWHG WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FKDS

WHUV %HUJJUHQ DQG -RQHV  $ JRRG LQWURGXFWRU\ WUHDWPHQW RI WKH PHWKRGV XVHG E\

3WROHP\ LQ WKLV ZRUN LV SURYLGHG E\ *HXV *HXV  6LGROL LQ WKH PHQWLRQHG WKHVLV DOVR GHDOV ZLWK WKH *HRJUDSK\ DV ZHOO DV ZLWK WKH PHWKRGV RI WKH 2SWLFV )RU WKH ODिHU ZRUN

WKHUH LV WKH DQQRWDWHG WUDQVODWLRQ E\ $ 0DUN 6PLWK 0DUN 6PLWK  DQG D FRPSDUDWLYH VWXG\ RI WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO PHWKRGV RI 3WROHP\ۑV VRXUFHV E\ WKH VDPH DXWKRU 0DUN 6PLWK

 /HMHXQH HGLWHG WKH VXUYLYLQJ /DWLQ YHUVLRQ LQ DQ H[HPSODU\ HGLWLRQ ZLWK D ORQJ LQ

WURGXFWLRQ /HMHXQH  ,Q UHODWLRQ WR 3WROHP\ۑV PDWKHPDWLFDO PHWKRGV LQ JHQHUDO DQG PRUH LQWURGXFWRU\ WKDQ 6LGROLۑV WUHDWPHQW ZH KDYH D V\QRSWLF VXUYH\ RI 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUNV E\ *HUPDLQH $XMDF $XMDF 

[YLL 1RZ , WXUQ WR PRGHUQ ELEOLRJUDSK\ RQ WKH FRQWH[W RI *UDHFR5RPDQ PDWKHPDWLFV QRW VSHFLਭFDOO\ RQ 3WROHP\ , KDYH DOUHDG\ PHQWLRQHG WZR UHSUHVHQWDWLYH ERRNV E\ 1HW] )URP DURXQG WKH VDPH GDWH ZH KDYH D PRQRJUDSKLF VWXG\ E\ 6HUDਭQD &XRPR RQ WKH /DWH $QFLHQW PDWKHPDWLFLDQ 3DSSXV RI $OH[DQGULD &XRPR  DQG D FROOHFWLRQ RI HVVD\V E\ KHUVHOI RQ WHFKQRORJ\ DQG FXOWXUH LQ WKH *UHHN DQG 5RPDQ ZRUOGV &XRPR  ,Q WKH SUHIDFH , KDYH DOVR PHQWLRQHG WKH FROOHFWLRQ HGLWHG E\ - .¸QLJ DQG 7 :KLWPDUVK ZLWK VRPH HVVD\V RQ VFLHQWLਭF WH[WV .¸QLJ DQG :KLWPDUVK 

$V UHJDUGV RWKHU FXOWXUHV D VLPLODU ZRUN KDV EHHQ GRQH E\ 5REVRQ ZKR VWXGLHG WKH PDWKHPDWLFV RI $QFLHQW 0HVRSRWDPLD HJ 5REVRQ  0RUH JHQHUDOO\ RQ DQFLHQW VFL

HQFH ZH KDYH WKH DEXQGDQW ELEOLRJUDSK\ E\ *HRਬUH\ ( 5 /OR\G HVSHFLDOO\ IRFXVLQJ RQ D FRPSDUDWLYH VWXG\ EHWZHHQ *UHHN DQG &KLQHVH VFLHQFH DQG PHGLFLQH HJ /OR\G 

/OR\G  , ZLOO QRW GHDO LQ GHWDLO ZLWK PHGLFLQH LQ P\ VWXG\ VR , ZLOO QRW DिHPSW WR VKRZ WKH VWDWH RI WKH TXHVWLRQ LQ WKLV GLVFLSOLQH +RZHYHU , ZLOO UHSHDW WKH UHIHUHQFH , PDGH LQ WKH SUHIDFH DERXW WKH YROXPH RI FROOHFWHG HVVD\V HGLWHG E\ *LOO :KLWPDUVK DQG :LONLQV *LOO HW DO  ZKLFK LV LPSRUWDQW IRU *DOHQۑV FRQWH[W DV ZHOO DV 0DिHUQۑV VWXG\

RQ *DOHQۑV UKHWRULF DQG VHOISURPRWLRQ 0DिHUQ 

$V UHJDUGV UKHWRULF DQG FRPSHWLWLRQ LQ JHQHUDO LQ WKH DQFLHQW ZRUOG *OHDVRQۑV VWXG\

RQ WKH VWUDWHJLHV RI WKH VRSKLVWV KDV EHHQ LPSRUWDQW IRU PH *OHDVRQ  ौHUH LV DOVR D UHFHQW FROOHFWLRQ RI SDSHUV RQ WKH VHFRQG VRSKLVWLF HGLWHG E\ 7 6 6FKPLGW DQG 3 )OHXU\

6FKPLGW DQG )OHXU\  DV ZHOO DV :KLWPDUVKۑV XVHIXO VXPPDU\ RQ WKH VDPH WKHPH :KLWPDUVK  DQG KLV PRUH JHQHUDO VWXG\ RQ WKH *UHHN OLWHUDWXUH LQ WKH 5RPDQ HPSLUH :KLWPDUVK  )RU SDWURQDJH 6DOOHUۑV UHFHQW VXUYH\ KDV VXFFHVVIXOO\ GHIHQGHG WKH LP

SRUWDQW UROH LQ VRFLHW\ WKDW WKLV IRUP RI VRFLDO UHODWLRQVKLS VWLOO KHOG LQ LPSHULDO WLPHV 6DOOHU



ौH *UHHN LQWHOOHFWXDO ZRUOG XQGHU WKH HPSLUH LV QRZDGD\V DQ HVWDEOLVKHG ਭHOG RI UH

VHDUFK RQ LWV RZQ ULJKW EXW LW KDG WR ਭJKW DJDLQVW ROG FODVVLFLVW SUHMXGLFHV XQWLO QRW ORQJ DJR DV *OHDVRQ UHPLQGV LQ KHU LQWURGXFWLRQ WR WKH VWXG\ RI VRSKLVWV ZKLFK , KDYH PHQWLRQHG

[YLLL ,1752'8&7,21 DERYH $XWKRULWLHV VXFK DV *LEERQ RU :LODPRZLW] ODEHOHG WKH *UHHN OLWHUDWXUH XQGHU WKH HPSLUH DV GHFDGHQW HਬHPLQDWH RU LOO RQ WKH EDVLV RI LWV IUHTXHQWO\ DUFKDL]LQJ DQG LPLWD

WLYH QDWXUH LQ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK WKH $िLF OLWHUDWXUH ZKLFK ZDV WKH PRGHO ERWK IRU 5RPDQ

*UHHNV DQG IRU PRGHUQV KRZHYHU WKH GLਬHUHQFH DV *OHDVRQ UHPDUNV LV WKDW ېRULJLQDOLW\

SHU VH ZDV QRW FRQVLGHUHG D YLUWXH E\ WKH *UHHNV WKHPVHOYHVۑ۹ 3HUKDSV WKLV FRXOG EH FRPSD

UDEOH WR WKH TXHUHOOH DERXW 3WROHP\ۑV VLQFHULW\ DQG WKH DFFXVDWLRQV WKDW 3WROHP\ SODJLDUL]HG WKH +HOOHQLVWLF DVWURQRPHU +LSSDUFKۺ

*UHHN OLWHUDWXUH XQGHU WKH 5RPDQ HPSLUH LV QRZ JHQHUDOO\ VWXGLHG DV SDUW RI D KLJKO\

WH[WXDOL]HG FXOWXUH FRQVFLRXV RI LWV RZQ SDVWۻ ,W LV QRW P\ DLP KHUH WR SURYLGH D SLFWXUH RI WKH VWDWH RI WKH TXHVWLRQ RQ WKLV WRSLF VLQFH LW LV HQRUPRXVO\ YDVW DQG ZRXOG QRW EH HVSHFLDOO\

UHOHYDQW IRU P\ LQYHVWLJDWLRQ , ZLOO MXVW EULHਮ\ IRFXV RQ RQH FOHDU H[SRQHQW RI WKLV ERRNLVK FXOWXUH ZKLFK ZDV SHUKDSV SDUDGR[LFDOO\ VRSKLVWLF GHFODPDWLRQ ZKHUH LPSURYLVDWLRQ WKLV LV IUHHGRP IURP WKH ZULिHQ RU PHPRUL]HG WH[W ZDV DQ LPSRUWDQW PDिHUۼ ,Q WKH VXUYLYLQJ GHFODPDWLRQV LPLWDWLRQ DQG UROHSOD\LQJ DUH LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV ZKLFK *OHDVRQ UHODWHV WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI VW\OLVHG EHKDYLRXU LQ DQFLHQW OLIH SURPLQHQWO\ ZLWKLQ WKH SDWURQFOLHQW UHODWLRQVKLSV ZKHUH LPSRVLQJ RQHۑV SUHVHQFH PXVW KDYH EHHQ IXQGDPHQWDO۽ 6R VRSKLVWLF GHFODPDWLRQ ZRXOG EH D VRUW RI YLUWXRVLF GHYHORSPHQW RI SUDFWLFHV RI HYHU\GD\ OLIH $W WKH VWDJH WKH SHUIRUPLQJ YLUWXRVR VRXJKW WR LPSUHVV WKH DXGLHQFH ZLWK KLV YDVW SDLGHLD۾ ौLV LV ZKHUH WKH UKHWRULFDO HGXFDWLRQ RI VRSKLVWV FDPH WR WKH IRUH ZKHUH PDQ\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH UKHWRULFDO H[HUFLVHV ZLWK ZKLFK WKH\ XVHG WR SUHSDUH WKHPVHOYHV LQ WKH VFKRROV RI UHWKRULF EHFDPH HYLGHQW{۷

۹*OHDVRQ  [YLL[YLLL

ۺ7R PHQWLRQ SHUKDSV WKH PRVW IDPRXV FDVH FI RQ 3WROHP\ۑV VWDUFDWDORJ DQG 5 5 1HZWRQۑV DFFXVDWLRQ RI SODJLDULVP IURP +LSSDUFKۑV FDWDORJ WKH VXPPDU\ LQ ौXUVWRQ  

ۻ:KLWPDUVK  

ۼ, PHDQ WKDW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI LPSURYLVDWLRQ ZDV DQ DFWXDO GHEDWH LWVHOI FI WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RQ LPSURYLVDWLRQ LQ 3KLORVWUDWXVۑ /LYHV RI WKH 6RSKLVWV  DQG RQ WKH VSHFLਭF FDVH RI $HOLXV $ULVWLGHV 

۽*OHDVRQ  [[LL

۾:KLWPDUVK  

{۷0RUJDQ   QRWHV WKH VXEWOH ERXQGDU\ EHWZHHQ UKHWRULFDO H[HUFLVHV DQG ېSURIHVVLRQDOۑ GHFODPDWLRQV

[L[

ौURXJKRXW WKLV VWXG\ , ZDQW WR DUJXH WKDW LQ D PLQRU GHJUHH 3WROHP\ LQ KLV ZRUNV DOVR XVHG VLPLODU ZHDSRQV DV WKH VRSKLVWV WR D VLPLODU DLP ौLV PD\ EH GHWHFWHG VSH

FLDOO\ LQ KLV HDUO\ ZRUNV ۋWKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ WKH +DUPRQLFV DQG WKH &ULWHULRQۋ ZKHUH 3WROHP\ VHHPV WR KDYH FRQVFLRXVO\ SOD\HG WKH UROH RI D 3ODWRQLF DQG 3\WKDJRUHDQ SKLORVR

SKHU WKURXJK GLਬHUHQW VWUDWHJLHV , ZLOO GHIHQG WKDW WKLV PD\ EH XQGHUVWRRG DV LPLWDWLRQ

0\ JXHVV LV WKDW 3WROHP\ OH़ WKHVH WH[WXDO GLVSOD\V DW D PRUH DGYDQFHG VWDJH RI KLV FDUHHU ZKHQ KH KDG DिDLQHG DQ HVWDEOLVKHG SODFH VLPLODUO\ DV *DOHQ ZKR DEDQGRQHG KLV SXEOLF SHUIRUPDQFHV D़HU KH UHDFKHG D YHU\ JRRG SRVLWLRQ DW 5RPH{{

:K\ ZRXOG 3WROHP\ KDYH SUHVHQWHG KLPVHOI DV D SKLORVRSKHU" $JDLQ WKH FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK WKH ZRUOG RI UKHWRULF PD\ EH ਭिLQJ LW LV ZHOONQRZQ WKDW PDQ\ UKHWRUV RI 3WROHP\ۑV WLPH ZHUH DOVR SKLORVRSKHUV VXFK DV 'LR RI 3UXVD )DYRULQXV RU $SXOHLXV *DOHQ ZURWH D ZRUN VLJQLਭFDWLYHO\ WLWOHG ࡋH EHVW GRFWRU LV DOVR D SKLORVRSKHU 2SW PHG 3KLORVRSK\ ZDV IRU VRPH WKH FXOPLQDWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUPHGLDWH VWXGLHV FRQVHTXHQWO\ HQMR\LQJ D KLJK VWDWXV LQ WKH SDLGHLD )RU WKLV UHDVRQ D VHOIGHSLFWLRQ DV D SKLORVRSKHU FRXOG KDYH FRQVWLWXWHG D PDUN RI SUHVWLJH ौLV PD\ EH VHHQ IRU H[DPSOH LQ WKH FDVH RI ZULWHUV RQ PHFKDQLFV ۋZKLFK LV UHOHYDQW IRU 3WROHP\ۋ ZKR YHU\ IUHTXHQWO\ SUHIDFHG WKHLU ZRUNV ZLWK SKLORVRSKLFDO LQ

WURGXFWLRQV +HUR $WKHQDHXV 0HFK 9LWUXYLXV 9LWUXYLXV LV LQWHUHVWLQJO\ H[SOLFLW DV SUH

VHQWLQJ DUFKLWHFWXUH KLV RZQ ਭHOG DV UHTXLULQJ SUDFWLFDOO\ HYHU\ RWKHU NQRZOHGJH ZKLFK ZRXOG EH HTXLYDOHQW WR PDNLQJ DUFKLWHFWXUH WKH FXOPLQDWLRQ RI WKH NQRZOHGJHV $UFK 

$QG QRZ WKH VHFRQG TXHVWLRQ ZK\ D 3ODWRQLF DQG 3\WKDJRUHDQ SKLORVRSKHU" :HOO KHUH WKHUH VHHP WR EH PDQ\ IDFWRUV 2Q WKH RQH KDQG WKH LQਮXHQFH RI 3ODWR LQ WKH HGXFDWLRQ DQG WKH VRFLDO LPDJH RI PDWKHPDWLFV LQ 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUOG ZDV YLVLEOH HYHU\ZKHUH HVSHFLDOO\ IRU DVWURQRP\ UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH LQਮXHQFH RI WKH 7LPDHXV 6R RQ WKLV EDVLV 3ODWR ZDV WKH REYL

RXV UHIHUHQFH $V UHJDUGV 3\WKDJRUHDQLVP DJDLQ 3ODWR LV LPSRUWDQW LQ WKDW KH SUHVHQWV KLV LGHDO RI HGXFDWLRQ RI WKH VFLHQFHV LQ WKH 5HSXEOLF DV D FRUUHFWLRQ RQ WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RI WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQV ZKR DUH DFFXVHG RI EHLQJ WRR HPSLULFDO ERRN  ौH 7LPDHXV ZLWK WKH PDLQ

{{+DQNLQVRQ  

[[ ,1752'8&7,21 VSHDNHU 7LPDHXV IURP /RFUL LQ ,WDO\ DQG ZKHUH WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQ FRVPRORJ\ RI 3KLORODXV ZDV DSSOLHG WR WKH GLVFRXUVH RQ WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH FRVPRV FRXOG ZHOO KDYH EHHQ XQ

GHUVWRRG DV 3ODWRۑV RZQ SURSRVDO IRU D ېFRUUHFWHGۑ 3\WKDJRUHDQ DVWURQRP\ 6R D 3ODWRQLVW ZRXOG KDYH HDVLO\ UHVRUWHG WR WKH 7LPDHXV IRU D FRVPRORJLFDO H[SODQDWLRQ :H ZLOO VHH IXU

WKHUPRUH KRZ 3WROHP\ۑV SKLORVRSKLFDO PLOLHX ZDV IDYRXUDEOH WR 3ODWRQLF 3\WKDJRUHDQLVP

VLQFH $OH[DQGULD ZKHUH 3WROHP\ ZDV DFWLYH KDG EHHQ D URXJK FHQWXU\ EHIRUH WKH VHDW RI D 3\WKDJRUHDQ UHYLYDO ZLWKLQ 3ODWRQLVP

6R ZKDW NLQG RI 3\WKDJRUHDQLVP ZDV LPSRUWDQW IRU 3WROHP\ WKH DQFLHQW ۋZKLFK 3ODWR FULWLFLVHVۋ RU WKH 3ODWRQLF 3\WKDJRUHDQLVP" ौLV LV DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ TXHVWLRQ VLQFH LW EULQJV WR WKH IRUH DQRWKHU SUREOHPDWLF )RU 3WROHP\ DV IRU HYHU\ VFLHQWLVW HPSLULFDO DFFXUDF\ WKLV LV DGHTXDWLRQ WR WKH SK\VLFDO ZRUOG ZDV LPSRUWDQW XQOLNH IRU 3ODWRQLF 3\WKDJRUHDQLVP

:H ZLOO VHH KRZ 3WROHP\ VROYHV WKLV LVVXH IRU WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ WKH +DUPRQLFV

DQG WKH &ULWHULRQ LQ WKH ਭUVW WKUHH FKDSWHUV ZKLFK ZLOO GHDO UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZLWK HDFK RI WKHVH WUHDWLVHV

ौH UHDVRQ ZK\ , KDYH GHYRWHG HQWLUH FKDSWHUV WR WKHVH WUHDWLVHV LQGLYLGXDOO\ LV WKDW , DिHPSW WR FDSWXUH WKH ZKROH SLFWXUH RI HDFK RI WKH ZRUNV LQGLYLGXDOO\ LQVWHDG RI FRQQHFWLQJ H[FHUSWV IURP RQH ZRUN DQG WKH RWKHU D VWXG\ ZKLFK KDV EHHQ DOUHDG\ XQGHUWDNHQ E\ RWKHU UHVHDUFKHUV DQG ZKLFK WHQGV WR EOXU WKH LQGLYLGXDOLW\ DQG DLP RI HDFK RI WKH ZRUNV 6LQFH , ZDQW WR SURYLGH D SLFWXUH RI 3WROHP\ DV DQ DXWKRU LW PDNHV VHQVH WR UHJDUG KLV WH[WV DV XQLWLHV JLYHQ WKDW KH ZURWH WKHP LQGLYLGXDOO\ ौH RWKHU PRWLYDWLRQ IRU GRLQJ WKLV LV WKDW WKHVH WKUHH WUHDWLVHV DUH UHODWLYHO\ VKRUW VR WKDW LW LV SRVVLEOH WR DQDO\]H WKHP ZLWKLQ D UHODWLYHO\ VKRUW VSDFH

1RZ , ZLOO SURYLGH D VXPPDU\ GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH FRQWHQWV DQG PHWKRGV LQ HDFK RI WKH FKDSWHUV

,Q WKH ਭUVW FKDSWHU WKH IRFXV LV WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ DQ DVWURQRPLFDO DUWLIDFW QRW H[WDQW EXW ZKRVH WH[W ZDV UHFRUGHG LQ WKH PDQXVFULSW WUDGLWLRQ RI WKH $OPDJHVW ,Q WKH ਭUVW SDUW RI WKH FKDSWHU , H[SORUH WKH VHिLQJ RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ ਭUVW ZLWKLQ WKH WUDGLWLRQ

[[L RI DVWURQRPLFDO LQVFULSWLRQV DQG VHFRQGO\ DV FRQFHUQV LWV DFWXDO VLWXDWLRQ ZKLFK DV , ZLOO DUJXH ZDV SUREDEO\ WKH VDFUHG SUHFLQFW RI 6HUDSLV DW &DQRSXV ौLV ZLOO EH LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKLV REMHFW DV SXEOLF GLVSOD\ ौHQ LQ WKH VHFRQG SDUW , DQDO\]H WKH WH[W RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH WZR EDVLF VHFWLRQV RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ

WKH HPSLULFDODVWURQRPLFDO DQG WKH ODVW SDUW RQ WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQ KDUPRQ\ RI WKH VSKHUHV

ZKLFK LV D FOHDUO\ ېXQUHDOLVWLFۑ DFFRXQW RI 3\WKDJRUHDQ DQG 3ODWRQLF FRVPRORJ\ )RU WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKLV ODVW SDUW , ZLOO H[SORUH WKH SRVVLEOH SDUDOOHOV LQ RWKHU DQFLHQW VRXUFHV ZKLFK VSHFLI\ D FRQFUHWH H[DPSOH RI WKH PXVLF RI WKH VSKHUHV

ौH VHFRQG FKDSWHU GHDOV ZLWK WKH +DUPRQLFV +HUH , ZLOO ਭUVW H[SORUH 3WROHP\ۑV VHOI

SRVLWLRQLQJ ZLWKLQ WKH YDULRXV EUDQFKHV RI WKH PXVLF WKHRU\ DQ LVVXH RI LPSRUWDQFH WDNLQJ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ WKDW 3WROHP\ۑV DLP ZDV PDLQO\ HPSLULFDO RWKHU WKDQ WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQ DQG $ULVWR[HQLDQ PXVLF WKHRU\ RI KLV RZQ WLPH $JDLQ DQ LPSRUWDQW EUHDN ZLWKLQ WKH WUHD

WLVH PDUNV Rਬ D ODVW VHFWLRQ RI D QRQVFLHQWLਭF FKDUDFWHU UHODWLQJ DV LQ WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULS

WLRQ WR 3ODWRQLF ORUH ौLV ZLOO EH VWXGLHG LQ WKH ODVW SDUW RI WKH FKDSWHU DJDLQ FRPSDULQJ WR RWKHU WH[WV RI DQFLHQW DXWKRUV ZKHUH WKH WUDGLWLRQDO FKDUDFWHU RI WKH FRQWHQWV RI WKLV VHFWLRQ PD\ EH HYLGHQFHG

3WROHP\ۑV WH[W &ULWHULRQ P\ VKRUWWHUP IRU WKH RULJLQDO WLWOH 2Q WKH &ULWHULRQ DQGWKH 5XOLQJ 3ULQFLSOH LV WKH IRFXV RI WKH WKLUG FKDSWHU ौLV WH[W LV WKH RQO\ RQH H[WDQW E\ 3WROHP\

ZKLFK LV RQO\ SKLORVRSKLFDO EXW PDQ\ RI LWV WKHPHV DUH DOVR IRXQG LQ WKH +DUPRQLFV EHFDXVH LW GHDOV ZLWK NQRZOHGJH WKHRU\ )LUVWO\ , ZLOO LQVSHFW WKH SKLORVRSKLFDO WKHRULHV RQ WKH WZR FRQFHSWV WKDW 3WROHP\ H[SORUHV WKH FULWHULRQ DQG WKH UXOLQJ SULQFLSOH FRPSDULQJ 3WROHP\ۑV FRQWHQWV DQG VW\OH ZLWK WKHP ौH LVVXH RI WKH VW\OH RI WKH WH[W ZKLFK KDV QRW EHHQ H[SODLQHG LQ SUHYLRXV OLWHUDWXUH ZLOO EH LPSRUWDQW IRU P\ VWXG\ VLQFH , ZLOO GHIHQG WKH LGHD WKDW LW KDV PDQ\ RI WKH IHDWXUHV W\SLFDO RI UKHWRULFDO SUDFWLFH DQ LGHD ZKLFK , ZLOO SXUVXH LQ WKH IROORZLQJ FKDSWHU ,Q WKH UHVW RI WKH FKDSWHU , LQWHQG WR VKRZ WKH LQWHUQDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI 3WROHP\ۑV WH[W E\ ZD\ RI DQDO\]LQJ VHSDUDWH SDUWV DQG VKRZLQJ SDUDOOHOV ZLWK NQRZQ WH[WV

ERWK IURP $ULVWRWOH DQG 3ODWR DQG IURP SRVVLEOH PHGLDWRUV

[[LL ,1752'8&7,21 0\ IRXUWK FKDSWHU LV RI D GLਬHUHQW QDWXUH ,W ਭUVW VWXGLHV D FXULRXV IHDWXUH RI 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUNV ERWK WKH RQHV DOUHDG\ VWXGLHG DQG RWKHUV ौLV IHDWXUH LV UHODWHG WR D VSHFLਭF GLV

WULEXWLRQ RI WKH WH[W LQ HTXDO VHFWLRQV DQG ZLWK WKH HYHQWXDO SUHVHQFH RI D ېFHQWHUۑ )LUVW , VWXG\ WKHVH IHDWXUHV LQ 3WROHP\ۑV WH[WV DQG WKHQ , ORRN IRU VLPLODU SUDFWLFHV LQ RWKHU DX

WKRUV EULHਮ\ DGGUHVVLQJ WKH FDVHV RI 9DUUR DQG 9LWUXYLXV ौHQ , ZLOO IRFXV DJDLQ LQ WKH WKUHH ZRUNV VWXGLHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV FKDSWHUV EHFDXVH WKH\ DOO VKDUH RQH RI WKHVH VSHFLਭF VWUXFWXUHV ZKLFK DPRQJ RWKHU IXQFWLRQV XQGHUOLQH WKH GLYLVLRQ WKH ODVW SKLORVRSKLF SDUWV RI WKHVH ZRUNV DW IRXU ਭ़KV RI WKH ZKROH WH[W , ZLOO ਭQDOO\ FRQVLGHU WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH WRSLFV RI WKHVH ZRUNV ۋLQFOXGLQJ WKH UKHWRULFDO FKDUDFWHU RI WKH &ULWHULRQۋ DQG ZKDW ZH NQRZ RI WKH *UDHFR5RPDQ LQWHUPHGLDWH HGXFDWLRQ

,Q WKH ਭ़K FKDSWHU , WU\ WR LGHQWLI\ 3WROHP\ۑV UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WKH GHGLFDWHH RI PDQ\ RI KLV ZRUNV 6\UXV :LWK WKLV REMHFWLYH , ਭUVW VHW RXW YDULRXV SRVVLEOH RSWLRQV ZKLFK , WKHQ WHVW DJDLQVW WKH HYLGHQFH IURP WKH ZRUNV GHGLFDWHG WR 6\UXV DV UHJDUGV WKHLU LPSOLHG LQWHQGHG DXGLHQFH IRFXVLQJ RQ WKH SUHIDFHV DQG RQ WKH VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ RI HDFK RI WKH ZRUNV ौHQ LQ WKH VHFRQG SDUW KDYLQJ GHਭQHG D PRUH SUHFLVH SRVVLEOH NLQG RI UHODWLRQVKLS , SURSRVH DQ LQGLYLGXDO WKDW PD\ DFFRXQW IRU WKLV W\SH RI GHGLFDWHH DQG ZKR PHHWV DOO WKH UHTXLVLWHV UHODWHG WR WKH QDPH WKH FKURQRJUDSKLFDO DQG JHRJUDSKLFDO VHिLQJ DQG WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO LQWHUHVWV DQG SRVVLEOH SURਭFLHQF\ LQ PDWKHPDWLFV 2Q WKLV EDVLV , ZLOO GUDZ FRQFOXVLRQV RQ 3WROHP\ۑV VRFLDO PLOLHX

,Q WKH VL[WK DQG ਭQDO FKDSWHU , ZLOO FRQVLGHU WZR WH[WV VXEVLGLDU\ WR WKH $OPDJHVW LWV SUHIDFH DQG DQ HSLJUDP LQWURGXFLQJ LW , EHJLQ ZLWK WKH SUHIDFH VLQFH WKH EUHYLW\ RI WKH HSLJUDP DGYLVHV D WUHDWPHQW DW WKH HQG XVLQJ HYHU\ DYDLODEOH HYLGHQFH IRU LWV HOXFLGDWLRQ LQVWHDG RI WKH RSSRVLWH SURFHGXUH ,Q WKH SUHIDFH , ZLOO LGHQWLI\ D VHULHV RI SKLORVRSKLFDO PRWLYHV WKDW ZHUH DOUHDG\ HQFRXQWHUHG DV ېSHUIRUPHGۑ LQ WKH ZRUNV VWXGLHG LQ WKH ਭUVW WKUHH FKDSWHUV ZKLFK LQ WKH $OPDJHVW DSSHDU MXVW RXWOLQHG LQ WKH SUHIDFH $V UHJDUGV WKH HSLJUDP , ZLOO ਭUVW FRQWH[WXDOL]H LW ZLWKLQ WKH SRHWLFDO WUDGLWLRQ UHODWHG WR PDWKHPDWLFV

DQG WKHQ WR FDWDVWHULVP VLQFH WKLV LV WKH WRSLF RI WKH HSLJUDP QHYHUWKHOHVV LGHQWLI\LQJ D

[[LLL 3ODWRQLF HOHPHQW QRW SUHVHQW LQ WKRVH WUDGLWLRQV ZKLFK LV DOVR HQFRXQWHUHG LQ WKH SUHIDFH

0HWKRGRORJLFDOO\ UHOHYDQW IRU WKH VHTXHQFH RI WKH FKDSWHUV LV SDUWO\ WKH UHODWLYH FKURQRO

RJ\ RI WKH ZRUNV ZKLFK LV LPSRUWDQW IRU P\ ېELRJUDSKLFDOۑ DUJXPHQWV VLQFH WKH WKUHH ZRUNV VWXGLHG LQ WKH ਭUVW WKUHH FKDSWHUV DUH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH SUHYLRXV WR WKH ZRUNV GHGL

FDWHG WR 6\UXV LQFOXGLQJ WKH $OPDJHVW :LWKLQ WKHVH WKUHH WUHDWLVHV ۋZLWK QR FOHDU FKURQR

ORJLFDO VHTXHQFHۋ , KDYH SURFHHGHG IROORZLQJ WKH RUGHU IURP WKH VLPSOHVW WR WKH PRVW FRP

SOH[ ZKLFK FRLQFLGHV ZLWK D WKHPDWLF RUGHU WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ FRQWDLQV WKH VKRUWHVW WH[W DQG WKH SDUW VWXGLHG LV IXQGDPHQWDOO\ WKH ODVW VHFWLRQ ZKLFK FRQWDLQV D VLQJOH WRSLF

WKH KDUPRQ\ RI WKH VSKHUHV ,Q WKH +DUPRQLFV ZKLFK , KDYH VWXGLHG VXEVHTXHQWO\ WKHUH LV D WKHPDWLF FRQWLQXLW\ ZLWK WKH LQVFULSWLRQ EHFDXVH LQ WKH ODVW VHFWLRQ WKH KDUPRQ\ RI WKH VSKHUHV DSSHDUV DJDLQ EXW DOVR WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH HOHPHQWV VWXGLHG JURZV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH LQVFULSWLRQ EHFDXVH LQ WKH +DUPRQLFV ZH ਭQG D SKLORVRSKLFDO GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKH VFLHQ

WLਭF PHWKRG GLVWLQFW IURP WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQ 3ODWRQLF WUDGLWLRQ ौH &ULWHULRQ LV WKH WH[W WKDW LQFOXGHV PRUH QRQH[FOXVLYHO\VFLHQWLਭF HOHPHQWV VLQFH LW LV HQWLUHO\ SKLORVRSKLFDO FRQ

VHTXHQWO\ DPRQJ WKHVH WKUHH WUHDWLVHV WKLV LV WKH RQH ZKLFK , ZLOO H[SODLQ LQ PRUH GHWDLO

)XUWKHUPRUH DV , VDLG DERYH WKHUH LV D WKHPDWLF FRQWLQXLW\ ZLWK WKH +DUPRQLFV ZKLFK VXJ

JHVWV LWV VWXG\ QH[W WR LW +RZHYHU WKH WKUHH FKDSWHUV FDQ EH UHDG LQGHSHQGHQWO\ IURP HDFK RWKHU VLQFH WKH FRQFOXVLRQV XVHG IURP SUHYLRXV FKDSWHUV DUH ZHOO H[SOLFLWHG

ौH IRXUWK FKDSWHU VXSSRVHV VRPH IDPLOLDULW\ ZLWK WKH WKUHH WUHDWLVHV VWXGLHG EHIRUH DV FRQFHUQV WKH LQWHUQDO GLYLVLRQV RI WKHVH ZRUNV DOWKRXJK DJDLQ , KDYH DिHPSWHG WR UHSHDW WKH EDVLF IDFWV DV ZHOO DV IRU WKH LVVXHV RI VW\OH RI WKH &ULWHULRQ ZKLFK , GLVFXVV DW WKH HQG RI WKH FKDSWHU ौH ਭ़K FKDSWHU FDQ EH UHDG LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI WKH RWKHU FKDSWHUV VLQFH LW GHDOV ZLWK WKH ZRUNV GHGLFDWHG WR 6\UXV ZKLFK KDYH QRW EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ VWXGLHG )RU WKH VL[WK FKDSWHU WKH UHDGHU VKRXOG KDYH LQ PLQG WKH LGHQWLਭFDWLRQ RI 6\UXV DिHPSWHG LQ WKH ODVW SDUW RI WKH SUHYLRXV FKDSWHU DV ZHOO DV WKH FRQFOXVLRQV IURP WKH ਭUVW IRXU FKDSWHUV +RZHYHU

DJDLQ WKHVH FRQQH[LRQV DUH UHSHDWHG DW WKH FRQFHUQHG SODFHV

[[LY ,1752'8&7,21

$W WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI HDFK FKDSWHU , KDYH SURYLGHG D ORQJ DEVWUDFW RQ LWV LQWHUQDO VWUXFWXUH

ौH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH FKDSWHUV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ GLDJUDP



 







XXXXXz :

AA AA AAK

>

-

:

  

&KDSWHU 

࠮H &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ

ࡋH SXEOLF GLVSOD\ RI D 3ODWRQLF DVWURQRPHU IROORZHU RI 7LPDHXV

 3ODQ RI WKH ࠫDSWHU

ौH VXEMHFW RI WKLV FKDSWHU ZLOO EH WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ DQ DVWURQRPLFDO PRQXPHQW VHW XS E\ 3WROHP\ LQ &DQRSXV LQ  &( )LUVWO\ , DQDO\]H WKLV REMHFW LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH DQFLHQW WUDGLWLRQ RI DVWURQRPLFDO PRQXPHQWV DQ HVWDEOLVKHG PHGLXP WKURXJK ZKLFK DQ

FLHQW DVWURQRPHUV R़HQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKHLU WKHRU\ ौH WH[W RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ KDV EHHQ SUHVHUYHG RQO\ LQ PDQXVFULSW IRUP EXW LW VHHPV SODXVLEOH WKDW WKH LQVFULSWLRQ ZDV VHW XS DW WKH WHPSOH RI 6HUDSLV DW &DQRSXV VLQFH LW ZDV GHGLFDWHG SUREDEO\ WR WKLV JRG DQG 2O\PSL

RGRUXV UHIHUV WR WKH SODFLQJ RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ LQ WHUPV WKDW VHHP WR DOOXGH WR WKLV WHPSOH

+RZHYHU 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ SDVVLQJ FRPPHQW LV SUREOHPDWLF DQG ZLOO EH DQDO\]HG LQ VRPH GHSWK

0\ DLP LV WR H[SORUH WKH IHDWXUHV RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ WKDW FDQ WHOO XV VRPHWKLQJ DERXW 3WROHP\ۑV FRQFHSWLRQ RI KLV RZQ DFWLYLW\ DV D VFLHQWLVW RU DQ LQWHOOHFWXDO 0\ IRFXV ZLOO EH WKH ODVW SDUW RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ ZKLFK , ZLOO LQWHUSUHWH DV 3WROHP\ۑV DिHPSW DW D 7LPDHDQ



 &+$37(5  7+( &$12%,& ,16&5,37,21 FRVPRORJ\ EDVHG RQO\ SHUKDSV LQ KLV FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH GLVWDQFHV RI WKH 0RRQ DQG WKH 6XQ $LPLQJ DW WKDW JRDO , ਭUVW SUHVHQW WKH FRQWHQWV RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ EHJLQQLQJ ZLWK WKH WZR PDLQ SDUWV ۋWKH DVWURQRPLFDO DQG WKH PXVLFDOۋ DQG WKH SRVVLEOH EULGJH EHWZHHQ ERWK

ौH DVWURQRPLFDO SDUW LV IRUPHG E\ SDUDPHWHUV RI URXJKO\ WKH VDPH DVWURQRPLFDO WKHRU\

WKDW LV HQFRXQWHUHG LQ WKH $OPDJHVW ZKLOH WKH PXVLFDO SDUW KDV QR FRUUHODWH LQ WKDW ZRUN

EXW DिHPSWV D FRVPRORJ\ EDVHG RQ WKH 3\WKDJRUHDQ DQG 3ODWRQLF WUDGLWLRQ RI WKH WRQHV RI WKH VSKHUHV $ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK 3WROHP\ۑV FRVPRORJ\ LQ WKH 3ODQHWDU\ +\SRWKHVHV FRXOG VXSSRUW WKH EULGJHVWDWXV RI WKH 6XQDQG0RRQGLVWDQFHV VHFWLRQ %RWK WKH GDWD LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ DQG LQ WKH WRQHV RI WKH VSKHUHV KDYH D FOHDU SDUDOOHO LQ 3OXWDUFKۑV FRPPHQWDU\ RQ 3ODWRۑV 7LPDHXV ZKLFK , DQDO\]H LQ WKH ਭQDO SDUW RI WKH FKDSWHU , FRQFOXGH WKDW 3WROHP\

SUREDEO\ NQHZ 3OXWDUFKۑV DFFRXQW HLWKHU GLUHFWO\ RU IURP 3OXWDUFKۑV VRXUFH (XGRUXV , H[SORUH RWKHU SRVVLEOH 7LPDHDQ DOOXVLRQV RI 3WROHP\ KLV OLVW RI PHDQV DQG FRQFRUGV LQ WKH PXVLFDO VHFWLRQ DQG WKH GHGLFDWLRQ RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ WR WKH ېVDYLRU JRGۑ ौH FKDSWHU HQGV ZLWK VRPH UHPDUNV DERXW WKH GRXEOH QDWXUH RI 3WROHP\ۑV VFLHQWLਭF LQTXLU\ DV VHHQ LQ WKH LQVFULSWLRQ WKH RQH PRUH SXUHO\ PDWKHPDWLFDO WKH RWKHU OHVV VR DQG PRUH WLHG WR D QRQPDWKHPDWLFDO WUDGLWLRQ VXFK DV WKH 7LPDHXV

$V D FRQFOXVLRQ ZH FDQ VD\ WKDW 3WROHP\ IROORZHG WKH DQFLHQW PDWKHPDWLFDO WUDGL

WLRQ RI PRQXPHQWDOL]LQJ WUHDWLVHV LQ D ZD\ LQ ERWK FRQWHQWV DQG GHGLFDWLRQ WKDW VXJJHVWV KLV FDVWLQJ RI DQ LGHQWLW\ DV D VFLHQWLVW DQG D 3ODWRQLVW DW WKH VDPH WLPH SUREDEO\ WDNLQJ LGHDV IURP $OH[DQGULDQ 3\WKDJRULVLQJ 3ODWRQLVP 3WROHP\ SUREDEO\ XVHG WKH SDUDGLJP RI 7LPDHXV ZKR LV VDLG WR EH DQ DVWURQRPHU LQ 3ODWRۑV GLDORJXH EXW ZKR DW WKH VDPH WLPH PDNHV VSHFXODWLYH SKLORVRSK\ DERXW WKH RULJLQ RI WKH ZRUOG

 $6752120,&$/ 02180(176 

 $VWURQRPLFDO PRQXPHQWV

ौH RQO\ GDWHG SLHFH RI 3WROHP\ۑV FRUSXV DQG SUREDEO\ RQH RI KLV ਭUVW ZRUNV WRRN WKH IRUP RI D EORFN RI VWRQH RU VWHOH ,W ZDV HUHFWHG DW &DQRSXV RU &DQREXV{ QHDU $OH[DQGULD

,Q WKHUH 3WROHP\ UHFRUGHG KLV PRGHOV IRU WKH RUELWV RI WKH SODQHWV DORQJ ZLWK KLV YHUVLRQ RI WKH KDUPRQ\ RI WKH VSKHUHV ौH VWRQH KDV QRW EHHQ SUHVHUYHG XS WR RXU GD\V EXW ZH SRVVHVV WKH WH[W LQ PDQXVFULSW IRUP FRSLHG IDLWKIXOO\ LI ZH PD\ WUXVW WKH KHDGLQJ LQ WKH PDQXVFULSWVt $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH ZRUGV DW WKH HQG RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ WKH VWHOH ZDV VHW XS LQ WKH WHQWK \HDU RI WKH HPSHURU $QWRQLQXV ZKLFK FRQYHUWHG IURP WKH $OH[DQGULDQ FDOHQGDU JLYHV  RU  &( ,W ZDV QRW XQWLO UHFHQWO\ WKDW WKUHH KLVWRULDQV RI DQFLHQW PDWKHPDWLFDO DVWURQRP\ SURYHG WKDW VRPH RI WKH DVWURQRPLFDO SDUDPHWHUV LQ WKH LQVFULSWLRQ ZHUH DFWXDOO\

GLVPLVVHG E\ 3WROHP\ KLPVHOI LQ WKH $OPDJHVW DV ROGHU QRW YDOLG ZRUN VR SURYLQJ WKDW WKH

&DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ SUHGDWHG WKH $OPDJHVW FRQWUDU\ WR ZKDW ZDV WUDGLWLRQDOO\ EHOLHYHGu

ौH ਭUVW WKLQJ ZRUWK DVNLQJ LV ZKHWKHU WKHUH ZDV DQ\WKLQJ SDUWLFXODU LQ WKH PHGLXP WKDW 3WROHP\ FKRVH IRU WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ RI KLV WKHRU\ 9RWLYH RਬHULQJV LQ WKH *UHHN ZRUOG DV LQ RWKHU DQFLHQW FXOWXUHV FRXOG QDWXUDOO\ WDNH WKH IRUP RI LQWHOOHFWXDO RਬHULQJV UHSUHVHQ

WDWLYH RI WKH LQWHOOHFWXDO SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH GHGLFDQW )RU H[DPSOH ZH FDQ ਭQG SK\VLFLDQV GHGLFDWLQJ WKHLU LQVWUXPHQWV۹ %XW WKLV ZDV D GLਬHUHQW FDVH IURP RXUV EHFDXVH 3WROHP\ GLG QRW GHGLFDWH WKH DVWURQRPLFDO LQVWUXPHQWV WKURXJK ZKLFK KH DFKLHYHG KLV UHVXOWV EXW WKH VKRUWHQHG WH[W LWVHOI ZKHUH WKH WKHRU\ LV H[SODLQHG ौLV VRUW RI RਬHULQJ LV LQGHHG UDUH RXWVLGH IURP PDWKHPDWLFV ौH RQO\ FOHDU QRQPDWKHPDWLFDO H[DPSOH LV WR P\ NQRZOGHJH 3LQGDUۑV 6HYHQWK 2O\PSLDQ ZKLFK LV VDLG WR KDYH EHHQ GHGLFDWHG DW /LQGXVۺ

,Q PDWKHPDWLFV WKH FDVH LV GLਬHUHQW :H KDYH HYLGHQFH RI PDQ\ GHGLFDWLRQV ZKLFK

{ौLV GRXEOH VSHOOLQJ ZDV DOUHDG\ DQ DQFLHQW GLVFXVVLRQ FI $HO +HU 3URV &DWK  ͌ͮ͝ͺͱͰͳ ͥ͞

ؔͱͦͲ קͥͦͪ ͤͲ͝ͷͦʹͩͪ͢ ͥͪط ͵Ͱڦ ͱ ؔͭͺͳ ͤͲ͝ͷͦ͵ͪ͢ ͥͪط ͵Ͱڦ ͣ

t͚͔ ͇͏ ͕͉͋ ͇͏ ͌̓͏͚͚̈́͋ ͔͕͉͍͉͋

u+DPLOWRQ HW DO  -RQHV D

۹,*² , WKDQN 5HYLHO 1HW] IRU WKLV LQGLFDWLRQ DERXW SK\VLFLDQVۑ GHGLFDWLRQV

ۺ5RXVH  VW HG   &I 6FKRO 3LQG 2O  'UDFKPDQQ OO  S  (YHQ LI WKH SRHW KLPVHOI ZDV QRW WKH RULJLQDO GHGLFDQW KH ZDV VR LQ D SXWDWLYH ZD\

 &+$37(5  7+( &$12%,& ,16&5,37,21 WRRN WKH IRUP RI D PDWKHPDWLFDO PLQLWUHDWLVH ZKLFK PD\ EH VLJQLਭFDQW GXH WR WKH PHDJHU HYLGHQFH IRU PDWKHPDWLFDO SURGXFWLRQ LQ WKH DQFLHQW ZRUOG FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU IRUPV RI OLWHUDU\ SURGXFDWLRQۻ

;HQDJRUDV LV VDLG WR KDYH LQVFULEHG KLV FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH KHLJKW RI 0RXQW 2O\PSXV DW WKH 3\WKLXP WKHUHۼ :H UHDG LQ 3RUSK\U\ۑV /LIH RI 3\WKDJRUDV WKDW 3\WKDJRUDVۑ VRQ $ULPQHV

WXV GHGLFDWHG D EURQ]H WDEOHW FRQWDLQLQJ ېVHYHQ NQRZOHGJHVۑ WR +HUD LQ KLV WHPSOH DW 6DPRV۽

$OWKRXJK 3RUSK\U\ۑV VRXUFH 'XULV RI 6DPRV PD\ EH XQUHOLDEOH۾ WKH YHU\ IDFW WKDW WKLV VWRU\

FRXOG ZRUN DV D OLWHUDU\ GHYLFH SUREDEO\ DिHVWV WR WKH UHDO IDFW WKDW VXFK RਬHULQJV ZHUH NQRZQ E\ 'XULVۑ DQG 3RUSK\U\ۑV UHDGHUV

$VWURQRPLFDO LQVFULSWLRQV DUH SDUWLFXODUO\ ZHOO DिHVWHG 7ZR ZKLWHQHG WDEOHWV ͬͦͶͫͿͭ͢͵͢ SUREDEO\ VKRZLQJ VRPH GLDJUDP{۷ ZLWK WKH WLWOH ېDVWURQRP\ RI (XGR[XVۑ DUH UHFRUGHG LQ WKH LQYHQWDULHV RI WKH WHPSOH RI *RRG )RUWXQH LQ 'HORV{{ $HOLDQ DिHVWHG WKH DVWURQRPHU 2HQRSLGHV RI &KLRV DV KDYLQJ HQJUDYHG D EURQ]H WDEOHW ZLWK DQ DVWURQRPLFDO SHULRG DOVR HQWLWOHG ېDVWURQRP\ۑ דʹ͵ͲͰͬͰͤ͢͠ DW 2O\PSLD DQG DGGV WKDW WKH DVWURQRPHU 0HWRQ ېVHW XS VWHODHۑ דͮ͞ʹ͵ͨʹͦ ʹ͵ͬ͟͢ͳ ZLWK D VLPLODU DFFRXQW{t &DOOLSSXV LV OLNHZLVH UHFRUGHG LQ WKH VRFDOOHG 3DULDQ PDUEOH WR KDYH ېVHW RXW DQ DVWURQRP\ۑ דʹ͵ͲͰͬͰͤͮ͢͠

ףͯͩͨͫͦͮ͞ ZKLFK OLNHO\ PHDQV WKH VHिLQJ XS RI DQ LQVFULSWLRQ{u

2QH RI WKHVH UHPDUNDEOH REMHFWV ZDV DFWXDOO\ IRXQG LQ D VLWH FDOOHG .HVNLQWRV QHDU /LQGXV LQ 5KRGHV IURP ZKHUH LW ZDV SUREDEO\ WUDQVSRUWHG LQ /DWH $QWLTXLW\ IRU EXLOGLQJ SXUSRVHV{۹ ,W ZDV GHGLFDWHG WR ېDOO WKH JRGV DQG JRGGHVVHVۑ DURXQG  %&( DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH IRUP RI WKH OHिHUV DQG VLPLODUO\ WR 3WROHP\ۑV LQVFULSWLRQ LW UHFRUGV SHULRGV RI WKH SODQHWV

ۻ6HH 1HW]  FK 

ۼ5RXVH  VW HG  

۽3RUSK 9LW 3\WK 

۾6HH HJ &UHHVH  

{۷1HW] DUJXHV WKDW WKH\ ZHUH SUHFLVHO\ ZKLWHQHG EHFDXVH WKHUH ZDV D GLDJUDP RQ WKHP FI 1HW]  

{{,'   $V ZH FDQ GHGXFH IURP WKH DQXDO LQYHQWDULHV WKH\ HQWHUHG WKH WHPSOH LQ  %&( VR WKDW WKH\ ZHUH FHUWDLQO\ VSXULRXV

{t$HOLDQ ;

{u,* ;,,  ौH H[SUHVVLRQ ېVHW RXWۑ ףͯͩͨͫͦͮ͞ XVHG LQ WKH FKURQLFOH LV DOVR XVHG IRU 0HWRQ LQ 'LRGRUXV 6LFXOXV ;,, UHIHUUHG WR WKH VDPH SHULRG RI  \HDUV ZKLFK $HOLDQ UHFRUGHG DV WKH FRQWHQW RI KLV VWHODH

{۹-RQHV  

 $6752120,&$/ 02180(176  DFFRUGLQJ WR HSLF\FOH PRGHOV{ۺ 6R ZH FDQ QRZ DQVZHU WKDW 3WROHP\ۑV ZDV RQO\ RQH DPRQJ PDQ\ DQFLHQW DVWURQRPLFDO RਬHULQJV WKDW WRRN WKH IRUP RI D VPDOO WUHDWLVH

/HW XV QRZ WU\ WR H[SODLQ WKH UHDVRQV WKDW *UHHN DVWURQRPHUV KDG IRU GHGLFDWLQJ KLV RਬHULQJV LQ WKDW VKDSH :LWK WKLV , ZLOO WU\ WR SURMHFW D SLFWXUH YDOLG QRW RQO\ IRU 3WROHP\

EXW IRU WKH DQFLHQW *UHHN DVWURQRPHUV LQ JHQHUDO

3ODWR XVHV WKH PHWDSKRU ېਭUVWIUXLWV RI ZLVGRPۑ ZKHQ KH DOOXGHV WR WKH WUDGLWLRQ RI GHG

LFDWLQJ D OLWHUDU\ SLHFH WR WKH JRGV{ۻ ौH PHWDSKRU LV EXLOW XSRQ WKH FXVWRP RI GHGLFDWLQJ WKH ਭUVWIUXLWV RI WKH KDUYHVW DV D WKDQN RਬHULQJ :H ਭQG D FOHDU HFKR RI 3ODWRۑV PHWDSKRU LQ 3KLOR RI $OH[DQGULD ZKR VD\V WKDW{ۼ

חͯͪͰͮ ͵طͳ ʹͶͮ͞ʹͦͺͳ ͫ͢ؽ דͤ͸ͪͮͰ͢͠ͳ ͫ͢͵ͬ͢͟͹ͦͿͳ ͵ͦ ͫ͢ؽ ͷͲͰͮ͟ʹͦͺͳ ͫ͢ؽ ͵ڳͮ

חͬͬͺͮ ͥͶͮͭͦ͝ͺͮ ؔʹͪ͢ ͱͦͲؽ ͢؛͵ͽͮ ͦ׿ʹͪͮ דͱ͢Ͳ͸طͳ דͮ͢͵ͪͩͮͪ͢͞ ͩͦڴ ͵ڴ ͵ػͮ

ͦ؛ͷͰͲͮ͢͠ ͵Ͱڦ ͥͪͮ͢Ͱͦڗʹͩͪ͢ ͱ͢Ͳ͢ʹ͸ͽͮ͵ͪ

,W LV YHU\ SURSHU WR RਬHU XS WKH ਭUVWIUXLWV RI RXU FOHYHUQHVV DQG DFXWHQHVV DQG FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DQG SUXGHQFH DQG RI DOO RXU RWKHU IDFXOWLHV ZKLFK ZH KDYH LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK RXU UHDVRQ DV ਭUVWIUXLWV WR *RG ZKR KDV EHVWRZHG XSRQ XV WKLV JUHDW DEXQGDQFH RI SRZHU RI H[HUWLQJ RXU LQWHOOLJHQFH

6RPH OLQHV EHORZ KH JLYHV D MXVWLਭFDWLRQ IRU WKLV RਬHULQJ ېLQ RUGHU WKDW RXU SRZHUV RI VSHDNLQJ DQG RI IHHOLQJ DQG RI FRPSUHKHQGLQJ PD\ EH VHHQ WR EH LUUHSURDFKDEOH DQG VRXQG LQ UHIHUHQFH WR DQG LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK *RGۑ{۽ ौXV WKH JHQHUDO VHQVH RI LQWHOOHFWXDO RਬHULQJV ZDV WR WKDQN WKH JRGV IRU WKH LQWHOOHFWXDO DFKLHYHPHQW ZKLFK ZDV DW OHDVW SDUWO\

GHGLFDWHG VLPLODUO\ DV D SDUW RI WKH KDUYHVW VHUYHG WR WKDQN WKH JRGV IRU WKH JHQHURXV KDUYHVW LWVHOI $V 3KLOR UHPDUNV WKLV DFW VHUYHG WR PDLQWDLQ D VWDEOH DOOLDQFH ZLWK WKH JRG VR WKDW WKH LQVSLUDWLRQ PD\ ODVW IRU ORQJ

5RXVH QRWHG WKDW WKLV DQDORJ\ ZLWK WKH ਭUVWIUXLWV VHHPV WR EH YDOLG QRW RQO\ DV D

{ۺ-RQHV   8QIRUWXQDWHO\ RQO\ WKH ODVW SDUW RI WKLV LQVFULSWLRQ KDV EHHQ SUHVHUYHG VR WKDW ZH GR QRW NQRZ LI LW FDUULHG WKH QDPH RI WKH DVWURQRPHU RU KRZ LW ZDV SUHVHQWHG

{ۻ3O 3URW E

{ۼ3KLOR $OH[ &RQJU  WU & ' <RQJH

{۽3KLOR $OH[ &RQJU  ؄ͮ͢ ͫ͢ؽ ͵ؿ ͬͤͦͪͮ͞ ͫ͢ؽ ͵ؿ ͢׿ʹͩͮͦ͝ʹͩͪ͢ ͫ͢ؽ ͵ؿ ͫ͢͵ͬͭͣͮͦͪͮ͢͢͝ דͮͶͱͪ͢͵͠ͺͳ ͫ͢ؽ

؜ͤͪͦͪͮڳͳ ͫ͢͵ط ͩͦؿͮ ףͯͦ͵ͧͨ͝͵ͪ͢

 &+$37(5  7+( &$12%,& ,16&5,37,21 PHWDSKRU EXW FRXOG DOVR LQGLFDWH D FKURQRORJLFDO IHDWXUH RI WKH GHGLFDWLRQV WKHPVHOYHV

VRPH RI WKHP DSSHDU WR EH RQH RI WKH ਭUVW PDVWHUZRUNV RI WKH GHGLFDQW WKXV GHGLFDWHG DO

SKDEHWV FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV WKH ਭUVW FRPSOHWHG ZRUN RI D OHDUQHU{۾ ,I 3WROHP\ۑV &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ ZDV SULRU WR WKH $OPDJHVW DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ RQH RI KLV ਭUVW ZRUNV ۋVLQFH WKH

$OPDJHVW LV DOOXGHG WR LQ PDQ\ RWKHU RI KLV ZRUNVۋ 3WROHP\ FRXOG KDYH WKRXJKW RI KLV GHGLFDWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI KLV ਭUVWIUXLWV LQ DVWURQRPLFDO WKHRU\

%XW ZKDW FRXOG KHOS XV H[SODLQ WKH VSHFLਭFLW\ RI PDWKHPDWLFDO RਬHULQJV" 3OXWDUFK FRXOG RਬHU VRPH FOXHV LQ WKLV LVVXH KH WHOOV XV WKDW PDWKHPDWLFDO GLVFRYHULHV SURGXFH VXFK D JUHDW SOHDVXUH LQ WKH UHVHDUFKHU WKDW KH IHHOV SURPSWHG WR JUHDW VDFULਭFHV +H FLWHV WKH IDPRXV VWRU\ RI 3\WKDJRUDVۑ VDFULਭFH RI DQ R[HQ D़HU WKH GLVFRYHU\ RI D WKHRUHPt۷ DORQJ ZLWK D WHOOLQJ WKDW (XGR[XVۑ SUD\HG IRU EHLQJ EXUQHG LQ ਮDPHV LI KH ZDV DEOH WR VWDQG LQ IURQW RI WKH 6XQ LQ RUGHU WR PHDVXUH LW DQG WKH RWKHU SODQHWV ਭQDOO\ DGGLQJ $UFKLPHGHVۑ ېHXUHNDۑ VWRU\ ौH ਭUVW WZR H[DPSOHV FDQ LQ IDFW EH XQGHUVWRRG DV H[WUHPH VDFULਭFLDO RਬHULQJV

WKH R[HQ RI WKH YHJHWDULDQ 3\WKDJRUDV DQG WKH VHOIVDFULਭFH RI (XGR[XV WR WKH 6XQ ,Q 3OXWDUFKۑV $UFKLPHGHV VWRU\ LQWHOOHFWXDO SOHDVXUH LV FRQWUDVWHG ZLWK KLV XQSUHRFFXSDWLRQ IRU WKH PDWHULDO VSKHUH IRU ZKLFK UHDVRQ KH FRXOG OHDS Rਬ WKH EDWK DQG UXQ QDNHG LQ WKH VWUHHWVt{

ौH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ VHHPV PRUH VLPLODU WR WKH UHOLJLRXV MR\ RI 3\WKDJRUDV DQG (X

GR[XV WKDQ WR $UFKLPHGHVۑ FUD]\ ېHXUHNDۑ PRPHQW EXW LQ DOO WKHVH FDVHV WKH WULJJHULQJ IDFWRU LV WKH VDPH WKH DFKLHYHPHQW RI D JUHDW PDWKHPDWLFDO GLVFRYHU\

:H FDQ QRZ ZRQGHU ZKHWKHU 3WROHP\ۑV WKHRU\ RI WKH SODQHWV ZDV RQH VXFK DFKLHYH

PHQW ,Q RUGHU WR DQVZHU WR WKLV TXHVWLRQ ZH PD\ EULHਮ\ DिHPSW WR SODFH 3WROHP\ۑV WKHRU\

LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH KLVWRU\ RI DQFLHQW DVWURQRP\

$V IDU DV ZH NQRZ WKH PRWLRQ RI WKH SODQHWV ZDV XQWLO VKRUW WLPH EHIRUH 3WROHP\ RQO\

{۾5RXVH  VW HG  

t۷3OXW 0RU ' &I -DHJHU   $V 1HW] QRWHV WKH IDFW WKDW KH DGYRFDWHG YHJHWDULDQLVP RQO\ PDGH KLV JL़ PRUH UHPDUNDEOH FI 1HW]  

t{-DHJHU  FK 

 $6752120,&$/ 02180(176  TXDOLWDWLYHO\ UHSUHVHQWHG (SLF\FOLF DQG HFFHQWULF WKHRU\ ZHUH XVHG WR GHVFULEH WKH SODQHWVۑ UHWURJUDGDWLRQV EXW WKH PRGHOV ZHUH LQDGHTXDWH EHFDXVH WKH\ GLG QRW FOHDUO\ DFFRXQW IRU WKH ਭUVW ]RGLDFDO LQHTXDOLW\tt 3WROHP\ LV RXU ਭUVW DिHVWDWLRQ IRU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI D FHQWHU RI DQJXODU XQLIRUP PRWLRQ GLਬHUHQW IURP ERWK WKH HDUWK DQG WKH HFFHQWHU ۋZKDW KDV EHHQ FDOOHG WKH ېHTXDQWۑtuۋ WKDQNV WR ZKLFK WKH HSLF\FOHDQGHFFHQWHU PRGHO ZDV IRU WKH ਭUVW WLPH HPSLULFDOO\ YDOLG ौLV LV QR PLQRU VXFFHVV HSLF\FOHV KDG EHHQ LQ XVH DW OHDVW IURP WKH WLPH RI $SROORQLXV RI 3HUJD LQ WKH WKLUG FHQWXU\ %&( DQG DVWURQRPHUV KDG EXVLHG ZLWK WKHP XQWLO 3WROHP\ۑV WLPH ZLWKRXW DFKLHYLQJ D FRUUHFW GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH SODQHWDU\

PRYHPHQWV +LSSDUFKXV DV 3WROHP\ DFNQRZOHGJHV GHVFULEHG ZHOO WKH WKHRU\ RI WKH 6XQ XVLQJ RQH HFFHQWHU DQG GHYLVHG D PRGHO RI WKH 0RRQۑV PRWLRQ ZLWK RQH HSLF\FOH ZKLFK FRQVWLWXWHV 3WROHP\ۑV ਭUVW PRGHO RI WKH 0RRQ 3WROHP\ DGGHG D FLUFOH RQ ZKLFK WKH FHQWHU RI WKH GHIHUHQW ZRXOG WXUQ LQ RUGHU WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH PRYHPHQW ېLQ GHSWKۑ RI WKH 0RRQ DW WKH TXDGUDWXUHV +LSSDUFKXVۑ PRGHO ZRUNHG ZHOO RQO\ DW FRQMXQFWLRQV QHZ DQG IXOO 0RRQt۹

+LSSDUFKXV GLG QRW ZRUN RXW DQ\ WKHRU\ IRU WKH SODQHWDU\ PRYHPHQWV KH LQVWHDG FRP

SRVHG D ZRUN SRLQWLQJ WR WKH GLVDJUHHPHQWV EHWZHHQ WKH PRGHOV RI WKH DVWURQRPHUV RI KLV WLPH DQG WKH DFWXDO REVHUYDWLRQV GHPRQVWUDWLQJ WKDW WKH\ GLG QRW DFFRXQW IRU WKH ]RGLDFDO DQRPDO\ $VWURQRPLFDO ZRUN D़HU +LSSDUFKXV FRXOG RQO\ SRRUO\ DFFRXQW IRU SODQHWDU\

PRWLRQ HYHQ LI LW DिHPSWHG WR WUHDW ERWK DQRPDOLHV $V (YDQV VKRZV WKH PDLQ SUREOHP PXVW KDYH EHHQ WKH PRYHPHQW RI 0DUV D SODQHW ZLWK ERWK JUHDW HSLF\FOHV DQG HFFHQWULF

LW\ ZKLFK ZDV YHU\ GLਯFXOW WR HPSLULFDOO\ GHVFULEH ZLWKRXW XVLQJ DQ HTXDQW HYHQ XVLQJ HFFHQWHU SOXV HSLF\FOHtۺ

3WROHP\ KLPVHOI ZKR DFNQRZOHGJHV WKH ZRUN RI WKH SUHYLRXV DVWURQRPHUV LQ VRODU DQG

tt-RQHV   3HGHUVHQ  UHY HG   (YDQV  

tu%XW 3WROHP\ GRHV QRW H[SOLFLWO\ DिULEXWHV WKLV PHFKDQLVP WR KLPVHOI 6HH (YDQV  IRU DQ HDV\ H[SODQD

WLRQ RI WKH PHFKDQLVP RI WKH HTXDQW DQG D SODXVLEOH KLVWRU\ RI LWV GHYHORSPHQW

t۹3WRO $OP 

tۺ6HH (YDQV  

 &+$37(5  7+( &$12%,& ,16&5,37,21 OXQDU WKHRU\ VHHPV WR SUHVHQW SODQHWDU\ WKHRU\ DV KLV RZQ FRQWULEXWLRQtۻ :H KDYH YHU\

OLिOH HYLGHQFH RI SODQHWDU\ WKHRU\ EHIRUH 3WROHP\ WKDW FDQ FRQਭUP KLV SLFWXUH +RZHYHU

WKH OLिOH ZH KDYH DJUHHV ZLWK LW $ UHFHQWO\ VWXGLHG SLHFH RI HYLGHQFH OLHV SUHFLVHO\ LQ WKH LQH[DFW PRGHOV RI WKH .HVNLQWRV LQVFULSWLRQ $V -RQHV DQG 7RRPHU EHIRUH KLP QRWHV

3WROHP\ VHHPV WR DOOXGH WR D VLPLODU DVWURQRPLFDO WKHRU\ DV WKH RQH LQ WKHVH PRGHOVtۼ

$QRWKHU DQFLHQW DUWLIDFW ZKLFK SURYLGHV FOXHV IRU WKH SODQHWDU\ WKHRU\ EHIRUH 3WROHP\

DQG D़HU +LSSDUFKXV LV WKH VRFDOOHG $QWLN\WHUD PHFKDQLVP DQ DVWURQRPLFDO FORFN IRXQG DW D ZUHFN DW WKH FRDVW RI WKH LVODQG RI $QWLN\WHUD EHWZHHQ &UHHWH DQG PDLQODQG *UHHFH DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ ,W ZDV IRUPHG E\ D PXOWLWXGH RI FRQQHFWHG JHDUV HQGLQJ LQ SRLQWHUV ZKLFK PDUNHG YDULRXV DVWURQRPLFDO GDWD LQFOXGLQJ WKH SRVLWLRQ RI WKH 6XQ WKDW RI WKH 0RRQ DQG LWV SKDVHV $OWKRXJK QR JHDUV IRU SODQHWDU\ PRWLRQ VXUYLYH

WKH PRVW UHFHQW UHVHDUFKHV  SDSHUV LQ  DSSDUHQWO\ LQGHSHQGHQW K\SRWKHVLVH WKDW WKH FOHYHU VROXWLRQ IRU WKH PRYHPHQW RI WKH 0RRQ D SLQ DQG D VORW RQ GLਬHUHQW JHDUV ۋWKH SLQ WUDQVPLिLQJ WKH PRYHPHQW WR WKH JHDU ZLWK WKH VORWۋ ZKLFK KDV EHHQ SURYHQ WR UHSURGXFH H[DFWO\ WKH DQJXODU PRYHPHQW RI DQ HSLF\FOLF PRGHO ZDV DOVR SUREDEO\ XVHG IRU LQGLFDWLQJ SODQHWDU\ SRVLWLRQV RI WKH VXSHULRU SODQHWV :LWKRXW VXFK D VROXWLRQ WKH KLJK QXPEHU RI JHDUV QHHGHG IRU WKHP ZRXOG PDNH WKHLU FRQVWUXFWLRQ GLਯFXOW GXH WR WKH GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH ER[ ,Q DQ\ FDVH LW LV KLJKO\ XQSUREDEOH WKDW WKH PHFKDQLVP UHSURGXFHG PRYHPHQWV RI WKH SODQHWV PRUH FRPSOH[ WKDQ WKH VLPSOH HSLF\FOH PRGHO DQG DJDLQ IRU WKH FRPSOH[

SHULRGLFLWLHV RI 0DUV WKH SRLQWHU ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ YHU\ RXW RI SODFH LQ RQO\ D IHZ \HDUV t۽

ौH HYLGHQFH IURP (J\SWLDQ SDS\UL DOVR VHHPV WR EH FRKHUHQW ZLWK WKH VNHWFKHG VLWX

DWLRQ ौHVH SDS\UL DUH GDWHG PDLQO\ IURP WKH VHFRQG WR WKH IRXUWK FHQWXU\ &( VR WKDW WKH\ FRXOG UHਮHFW WKH LPSDFW RI 3WROHP\ۑV WKHRU\ DQG RWKHU FRQWHPSRUDU\ DVWURQRPHUV LQ

tۻ3WRO $OP  ͉ &I 3HGHUVHQ  UHY HG  

tۼौLV LV ZKHQ KH FULWLFL]HV LQ WKH $OPDJHVW ,; FHUWDLQ XQQDPHG DVWURQRPHUV ZKR WULHG WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH WZR DQRPDOLHV E\ XVLQJ ېHWHUQDO WDEOHFRQVWUXFWLRQۑ DSSO\LQJ ېHFFHQWULF FLUFOHV RU FLUFOHV FRQFHQWULF ZLWK WKH ]RGLDF DQG FDUU\LQJ HSLF\FOHV RU E\ =HXV WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH WZRۑ VXFK HSLF\FOHDQGHFFHQWHU PRGHOV

DORQJ ZLWK WKH DVVXPSWLRQ RI FRPPRQ SHULRGV IRU DOO WKH SODQHWV LV ZKDW ZH SUHFLVHO\ ਭQG LQ WKH LQVFULSWLRQ

FI -RQHV  

t۽)UHHWK DQG -RQHV  &DUPDQ HW DO  

 $6752120,&$/ 02180(176  WKH VXEVHTXHQW JHQHUDWLRQt۾ $PRQJ WKH  SDS\UL VKRZLQJ WDEOHV IRU SODQHWDU\ PRWLRQ LQYROYLQJ JHRPHWULFDO PRGHOV  RI WKHP DUH GHULYHG IURP 3WROHP\ۑV ZRUN +DQG\ 7DEOHV

DQG WKH RWKHU  ېVKRZ QR REYLRXV UHODWLRQ WR 3WROHP\ۑu۷ 6R LW VHHPV WKDW 3WROHP\ۑV ZDV SUREDEO\ WKH PRVW VXFFHVVIXO WKHRU\ DOWKRXJK RWKHU SHUKDSV FRQWHPSRUDU\ DVWURQRPHUV

FRXOG KDYH SURGXFHG VLPLODU WKHRULHV SHUKDSV ZLWK D VLPLODU GHJUHH RI DFFXUDF\

$ SDS\UXV QRW LQ WKLV OLVW SUHVHQWHG LQ D SUHOLPLQDU VWXG\ E\ $QQH 7LKRQ VHHPV WR XVH JHRPHWULFDO PRGHOV DQG D WUHDWLVH FDOOHG ې6\QWD[LVۑ OLNH WKH RULJLQDO QDPH RI 3WROHP\ۑV

$OPDJHVW EXW FOHDUO\ QRW 3WROHP\ۑV RZQ ZKLOH WKH GDWH RI WKH SDS\UXV FRXOG EH ODWHU RQH DVWURQRPLFDO H[DPSOH GDWHG IURP  &( LQ WKH WH[W VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH FRQWHQWV GDWH EDFN WR 3WROHP\ۑV WLPHu{

6R LQ FRQFOXVLRQ LW ORRNV DV WKRXJK D WKHRU\ OLNH 3WROHP\ۑV ZDV SUREDEO\ GHYHORSHG QRW XQWLO KLV RZQ SHULRG 3HUKDSV KH ZDV QRW WKH ਭUVW \HW SUREDEO\ RQH RI WKH ਭUVW DVWURQRPHUV ZKR FRXOG ਭQG DQ HPSLULFDOO\ FRUUHFW WKHRU\ IRU WKH PRYHPHQWV RI WKH SODQHWV DQG WKH 0RRQ 6XUHO\ WKLV ਭQGLQJ ZHOO GHVHUYHG VRPHWKLQJ VSHFLDO OLNH D GHGLFDWLRQ WR D JRG D WUDGLWLRQDO RਬHULQJ RI RQHۑV LQWHOOHFWXDO ਭUVWIUXLWV DV ZH KDYH VHHQ

6XFK DQ RਬHULQJ ZRXOG DOVR XQGRXEWHGO\ FRQVWLWXWH DQ DFW RI SXEOLF VHOISUHVHQWDWLRQ

FRPSDUDEOH WR (UDWRVWKHQHVۑ GHGLFDWLRQ RI D FROXPQ ZLWK KLV VROXWLRQ RI 'HOLDQ SUREOHP WR NLQJ 3WROHP\ LQ QHDUE\ $OH[DQGULD FHQWXULHV EHIRUH ,Q WKHUH DQ REMHFW ZDV RQ WRS

IROORZHG E\ WKH VNHWFK RI D SURRI DQG D GLDJUDP DQG ਭQDOO\ DQG HSLJUDPut ौH IDPRXV VWHOH RI $UFKLPHGHVۑ WRPE ZKRVH GLVFRYHU\ E\ &LFHUR LQ 6\UDFXVH LV YLYLGO\ GHVFULEHG E\ KLPVHOI LQ WKH 7XVFXODQVuu ZDV GHFRUDWHG LQ D YHU\ PXFK VLPLODU IDVKLRQ ۋREMHFW RQ WRS GLDJUDP DQG HSLJUDPۋ DQG 3WROHP\ FRXOG KDYH KDG WKH H[DPSOHV RI WKHVH IDPRXV PDWKHPDWLFLDQV LQ PLQG ZKHQ GHGLFDWLQJ KLV LQVFULSWLRQ $FWXDOO\ LQ RQH RI WKH PDQXVFULSWV SUHVHUYLQJ WKH WH[W RI WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ WKHUH DSSHDUV D GLDJUDP ZKLFK DOWKRXJK FRUUXSW PD\

t۾-RQHV  

u۷-RQHV  

u{7LKRQ 

ut1HW]   FI (XWRFLXV ,Q 6& ,,

uu&LF 'LVS 

 &+$37(5  7+( &$12%,& ,16&5,37,21 KDYH EHHQ RULJLQDOu۹ ,I LW ZDV LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWRQH SHUKDSV WKLV ZDV 3WROHP\ۑV ZD\ RI SRVLWLRQLQJ KLPVHOI LQ WKH WUDGLWLRQ RI WKHVH PHQ"

6R LW VHHPV WKDW PDWKHPDWLFLDQV VRPHWLPHV HUHFWHG PRQXPHQWV FRPPHPRUDWLQJ WKHLU DFKLHYHPHQWV %XW VR GLG RWKHU SURIHVVLRQDOV DV ZHOO ौH LQWHUHVWLQJ WKLQJ LV WKDW WKH IRUP RI PDWKHPDWLFDO RਬHULQJV ZDV SUDFWLFDOO\ WKH VDPH DV WKDW RI D PDWKHPDWLFDO WUHD

WLVH DQG WKLV VHHPV WR EH TXLWH XQLTXH 6R ZK\ ZHUH PDWKHPDWLFDO WUHDWLVHV VR FRPPRQO\

PRQXPHQWDOL]HG" 5HYLHO 1HW] RਬHUV DQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKLV LVVXH EDVHG RQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ PDWKHPDWLFDO WH[WV DV SHUIRUPDWLYH LQ WKHPVHOYHVuۺ 1HW] VXJJHVWV WKDW ZKLOH SK\VLFLDQV UH

OLHG RQ WKHLU LQVWUXPHQWV LQ GRLQJ WKHLU ZRUN ۋWKH VDPH DV DVWURQRPHUVۋ WKHLU WH[WV ZHUH QRW SHUIRUPDWLYH LQ WKH ZD\ PDWKHPDWLFDO WH[WV ZHUH :KLOH PHGLFDO WH[WV ZHUH QRW IRU

PDOO\ GLਬHUHQW IURP OLWHUDU\ SDS\UL PDWKHPDWLFDO WH[WV VKRZHG D YLVXDO LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK WKH UHDGHU LQ ZKLFK WKH WKHRU\ LWVHOI ZDV GHYHORSHG 6R WKH SK\VLFLDQVۑ UHDO PHGLFDO SUDF

WLFH ZRXOG QRW EH LQ WKH SDS\UXV EXW LQ KXPDQ ERGLHV ZKLOH PDWKHPDWLFLDQVۑ SUD[LV ZDV LQ WKH SDSHU LWVHOI 6R ZKHQ SK\VLFLDQV RਬHUHG WR WKH GLYLQLW\ WKH HSLWRPH RI WKHLU SHU

IRUPDQFH WKLV ZDV WKHLU LQVWUXPHQWV ZLWK ZKLFK WKH\ SHUIRUPHG WKHLU RSHUDWLRQV ZKLOH PDWKHPDWLFLDQV RਬHUHG WKH ZRUNV WKHPVHOYHV LQ D ODVWLQJ PHGLXP ौH SURPLQHQFH RI DV

WURQRPLFDO WKHRULHV VKRZLQJ HWHUQDO F\FOHV ZRXOG SHUKDSV UHਮHFW WKH GHVLUHG ODVWLQJ QDWXUH RI WKH RਬHULQJ 3UREDEO\ DOVR WKH ROG FRQFHSWLRQ RI WKH SODQHWV DV JRGV DQG WKH FRQVHTXHQW ېGLYLQHۑ VWDWXV RI DVWURQRP\ DPRQJ WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO VFLHQFH DV LQ 3ODWR $ULVWRWOH DQG 3WROHP\ VHH FKDSWHU  ZDV VLJQLਭFDQW LQ WKLV FRQWH[W

 ࠮H WHPSOH RI 6HUDSLV DW &DQRSXV

/HW XV QRZ LQWURGXFH WKH GHWDLOV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SODFLQJ RI 3WROHP\ۑV RਬHULQJ $V ZH KDYH VDLG WKH WH[W RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ LWVHOI SXUSRUWV WKDW LW ZDV VHW XS LQ &DQRSXV ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ

, ZLOO DUJXH WKDW LW LV SRVVLEOH WR VXJJHVW D PRUH SUHFLVH SODFLQJ LQ WKH WHPSOH RI 6HUDSLV LQ

u۹-RQHV D 

uۺ1HW]  FRQIHUHQFH

 7+( 7(03/( 2) 6(5$3,6 $7 &$12386 

WKDW WRZQ D PDMRU PHGLFDO DQG IHVWLYH VLWH QH[W WR $OH[DQGULD

ौH ਭUVW FOXH LV IRXQG LQ WKH WH[W RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ LWVHOI ौH LQVFULSWLRQ EHJLQV ZLWK WKH GHGLFDWRU\ OLQH ېWR WKH VDYLRU JRGۑ ͩͦڴ ʹͺ͵ډͲͪ %XW 3WROHP\ GRHV QRW VSHFLI\ WKH JRG KH UHIHUV WR ौH LQGHਭQLWLRQ LQ KLV FKRVHQ IRUPXOD IRU DOOXGLQJ WKH JRG LV LQGHHG UDUH ,Q WKH VXUYLYLQJ LQVFULSWLRQV UHFRUGHG LQ WKH 3+, GDWDEDVH LW LV IRXQG LVRODWHG ۋWKLV LV ZLWK

RXW PHQWLRQ RI WKH JRG RU WKH GHLਭHG LQGLYLGXDO YHU\ IUHTXHQWO\ WKH (J\SWLDQ 3WROHPDLF NLQJVuۻۋ RQO\ YHU\ UDUHO\uۼ +RZHYHU ZH NQRZ WKDW LQ &DQRSXV ZKHUH WKH LQVFULSWLRQ ZDV GHGLFDWHG D VDYLRU JRG SDU H[FHOOHQFH 6HUDSLV ZDV ZRUVKLSSHG LQ D YHU\ LPSRUWDQW WHPSOH DW 3WROHP\ۑV WLPH ौLV LV ZK\ 3WROHP\ۑV GHGLFDWLRQ KDV EHHQ XVXDOO\ XQGHUVWRRG DV UHIHUULQJ WR 6HUDSLV

ौH ਭUVW HGLWRU RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ %RXOOLDX DOVR SURSRVHG WKDW WKH SODFH RI WKH GHGLFDWLRQ ZDV WKH WHPSOH RI 6HUDSLV LWVHOIu۽ EXW WKHUH UHPDLQ GRXEWV PDLQO\ GXH D FRQIXVLQJ UHIHU

HQFH WR WKH LQVFULSWLRQ LQ D FRPPHQWDU\ E\ WKH 1HRSODWRQLF SKLORVRSKHU 2O\PSLRGRUXVu۾ ,Q ZKDW IROORZV , ZLOO GHIHQG WKDW ZKLOH 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ UHIHUHQFH LV QRW WR EH HQWLUHO\ WUXVWHG

KLV PHQWLRQ RI WKH SODFH RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ LV SODXVLEO\ WUXWKIXO DQG SUREDEO\ UHIHUULQJ WR WKH WHPSOH DOWKRXJK WKHUH LV QRW FRQFOXVLYH HYLGHQFH ौH UHDGHU QRW LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKLV VRPH

ZKDW ORQJ DUJXPHQWDWLRQ LQYROYLQJ WH[WXDO KLVWRU\ DQG VRPH LVVXHV RQ 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ RZQ WH[WXDO PHWKRGV PD\ VNLS WKLV VXEVHFWLRQ ZLWK QR KDUP WR WKH RYHUDOO FRPSUHKHQVLRQ RI WKH FKDSWHU

uۻौH IDFW WKDW WKH IRUPXOD FKRVHQ LV WKH VDPH DV IRU WKH 3WROHPLHV PD\ EH VLJQLਭFDQW EXW , ZLOO GLVFXVV WKLV SRVVLELOLW\ RQO\ ODWHU RQ LQ FKDSWHU 

uۼ?iiT,ff2TB;`T?vXT+F?mKXQ`;fBMb+`BTiBQMbfKBM ODVW FRQVXOWHG  , ORRNHG IRU LQVFULS

WLRQV VKRZLQJ WKH ZRUGV ͩͦͽͳ DQG ʹͺ͵͟Ͳ FRQWLJXRXVO\ DQG LQ WKH VDPH FDVH EXW LQ WKH WZR SRVVLEOH RUGHUV QRW DिDFKHG WR DQ\ JRG ौHUH DSSHDUV RQO\ RQH LQVWDQFH LQ (J\SW DQG LW LV GRXEWIXO EHFDXVH ERWK ZRUGV DSSHDU DEEUHYLDWHG .RSWRV ¢ .RVVHLU  IRXU RWKHU LQVWDQFHV HOVHZKHUH ,* %XOJ ,,,  0$0$  3KU\JLD

DOWKRXJK ͩͦͺ LV ZKROO\ UHFRQVWUXFWHG ,. 3HUJH  7$0 ,, 

u۽%XOOLDOGXV   DOVR DFFHSWHG LQ +DPLOWRQ HW DO  

u۾-RQHV D  DJUHHV ZLWK WKH LGHQWLਭFDWLRQ RI 6HUDSLV EXW QRW ZLWK WKH SODFLQJ LQ WKH WHPSOH

 &+$37(5  7+( &$12%,& ,16&5,37,21

 2O\PSLRGRUXVنUHIHUHQFH WR WKH SUHFLVH SODFH RI WKH GHGLFDWLRQ

%HIRUH LQWURGXFLQJ 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ UHPDUN LW ZLOO EH XVHIXO WR DVVHV 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ RZQ SRVVLEOH DFTXDLQWDQFH ZLWK WKH LQVFULSWLRQ 6LQFH ZH DUH JRLQJ WR DVVHVV 2O\PSLRGRUXVۑ UHOLDELOLW\ LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR PDNH VRPH K\SRWKHVLV DERXW WKH HYLGHQFH WKDW 2O\PSLRGRUXV FRXOG KDYH KDG DW KDQG

$V ZH KDYH VDLG WKH &DQRELF ,QVFULSWLRQ LV RQO\ SUHVHUYHG LQ PDQXVFULSW IRUP :HOO LW WXUQV RXW WKDW 2O\PSLRGRUXV RU KLV LPPHGLDWH SUHGHFHVVRUV LQ WKH 1HRSODWRQLF VFKRRO RI

$OH[DQGULD ZHUH SUREDEO\ WLHG WR WKH RULJLQ RI WKLV PDQXVFULSW ,QGHHG WKH DUFKHW\SH RI WKH WH[W LQ PDQXVFULSW IRUP ZDV SUREDEO\ PDGH LQ WKH 1HRSODWRQLF VFKRRO RI $OH[DQGULD XQGHU WKH EURWKHUV $PPRQLXV DQG +HOLRGRUXV DV -RQHV QRWHV LQ KLV UHFHQW HGLWLRQ RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ۹۷ ौLV LV VXJJHVWHG E\ ERWK WKH GDWLQJ E\ +HLEHUJ SULRU WR WKH VL[WK FHQWXU\

DQG WKH LPPHGLDWH FRQWH[W LQ WKH PDQXVFULSWV ौH LQVFULSWLRQ LV LQFOXGHG DPRQJ WKH SUH

OLPLQDU PDWHULDO FRPSLOHG LQ VRPH RI WKH PDQXVFULSWV RI 3WROHP\ۑV $OPDJHVW WKH VRFDOOHG 3UROHJRPHQD EHIRUH D VHFWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ +HOLRGRUXVۑ DVWURQRPLFDO REVHUYDWLRQV DQG D़HU D VPDOO WUHDWLVH RQ PXOWLSOLFDWLRQ DQG GLYLVLRQ SUREDEO\ ZULिHQ LQ WKH VDPH SHULRG DQG LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK WKH 1HRSODWRQLF VFKRRO۹{ $Q LQGLFDWLRQ RI WKH VFKRODU XVH RI WKH FRS\

FRXOG EH WKH SUHVHQFH RI D ORQJ VFKROLRQ D़HU WKH SURSHU LQVFULSWLRQ :H FDQ DVVXPH WKDW WKLV VFKROLRQ ZDV DOUHDG\ ZULिHQ LQ WKH DUFKHW\SH RI WKH PDQXVFULSW WH[W VLQFH LW DSSHDUV LQ DOO WKH FRGLFHV XVHG LQ WKH HGLWLRQV RI +HLEHUJ DQG -RQHV DQG QRW PDUJLQDOO\ EXW LQ WKH ERG\ RI WKH WH[W ZLWK QR EUHDN ZLWK RULJLQDO FRQWHQW RI WKH LQVFULSWLRQ۹t

,W ZDV SUHFLVHO\ WKH IDFW WKDW 3WROHP\ IRUPHG SDUW RI WKH 1HRSODWRQLF VFKRROۑV FXUULFX

OXP ZKDW PDGH PRGHUQ VFKRODUV HQWHUWDLQ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKH LQVFULSWLRQ RU LWV WH[W

ZDV D IDEULFDWLRQ RI WKH VFKRRO SHUKDSV LQWHQGLQJ WR HQKDQFH 3WROHP\ۑV UHSXWDWLRQ DQG

۹۷-RQHV D 

۹{$FFRUGLQJ WR $FHUEL  FRQIHUHQFH

۹t3WRO &,  ौH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW LW ZDV LQ WKH DUFKHW\SH LV VWLOO HQKDQFHG E\ WKH ODिHUۑV ODWH GDWH DQG WKH IHZ VXFFHVVLYH UHFRS\LQJV FI -RQHV D