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Forest Business Environment Attractiveness comparison of Key Latin American Countries

Dr. José Rente Nascimento

Inter-American Development Bank

AEL FinPRO Seminar

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Overview

III- Results

– Sub Indices – Supra, Inter, – Intra

I- IDB in one minute

IV- PROMECIF and II- IAIF

– Objectives – Usefulness – Model

(3)

I

Inter-American

Development

Bank

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Basic Facts: the IDB Group

ƒ IDB Group: IDB (1959); IIC (1989); MIF (1992); and PRI (1994)

ƒ Oldest and largest regional multilateral development bank ƒ Largest source of development finance for Latin America

– Approved over $ 118 billion in loans – Total cost of projects: $281 billion

ƒ 46 Member countries

- 26 Borrowing (50 % of the shares)

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II

IAIF Results

2002

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IAIF - Objectives

General objective: To measure the business climate

for investments in the sustainable forest business.

The IAIF allows the systematic, periodic,

quantitative and more rigorous analyses of the

factors that affect the success of forest direct

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IAIF principal clients

• International investors and entrepreneurs • Domestic investors and entrepreneurs

• Governments (national, regional or local) • National and international NGOs

• Bilateral and multilateral donors II- IAIF

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The IAIF is useful for

representing the forest business climate as a single

number per nation

initial screening BY INVESTORS of countries with best investment climate for sustainable forest businesses

• facilitating a more precise and constructive

dialogue about forest business climate issues

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The IAIF is useful for

setting priorities among policy areas by

governments interested in improving their forest business climate

monitoring the success of policy interventions on specific indicators

identifying issues where national performance is above or below expectations or aspirations

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The IAIF is useful for

serving as a working framework to encourage research, debate, dialogue, and learning.

clarifying policy and investment tradeoffs

designing intervention strategies and better define goals, programs, and policies

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The IAIF allows comparisons of

countries, regions, years, indicators,

sub-indexes, such as

ƒ Among nations in a given year

ƒ Country’s performance trends over time

ƒ Country’s performance in relation to neighbors or sub region for given year

ƒ Subindex performance and trends II- IAIF

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The IAIF allows analysis of:

Measured (real) Measured (real) Potential (potential maximum) Potential (potential maximum) Differential (potential improvement) Differential (potential improvement) Contribution to IAIF (weighted) Contribution to IAIF (weighted) Simulations Simulations II- IAIF

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IAIF – Basic hypothesis

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Methodology – 3 Sub indexes

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Sub index – SUPRA sectorial factors

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Sub index – INTER sectorial factors

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Sub index – INTRA sectorial factors

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Methodology

20 indicators; >80 variables

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IAIF and Sustainability

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Sources of information

• Secondary data and indexes (World Bank, FAO, World Economic Forum, etc.)

• Primary information through surveys

– Agriculture policies

– Planting and harvesting restrictions – Adverse actions

– Favorable supports

(21)

III

IAIF Results

2002

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IAIF Real (measured) - 2002

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Real – Potential - Differential

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IAIF – Real for Best Performers

40 41 44 44 53 60 Mexico Costa Rica Uruguay Argentina Chile Brasil III- Results

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IAIF – Highest Potential

99 86 81 79 78 78 Brasil M exico Colombia Argentina Venezuela Peru III- Results

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Possible improvement over current levels (%) 60 66 69 81 101 115 Uruguay Brasil Costa Rica Argentina Colombia México III- Results

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SubIndex SUPRA

69 77 50 50 76 51 M exico Costa Rica Uruguay Argentina Chile Brasil III- Results

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SubIndex INTER

51 51 57 46 63 46 M exico Costa Rica Uruguay Argentina Chile Brasil III- Results

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Sub Index INTRA

27 27 36 41 42 69 M exico Costa Rica Uruguay Argentina Chile Brasil III- Results

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INTER vs INTRA

M exico Costa Rica Uruguay Argentina Chile Brasil INTRA INTER III- Results

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IAIF –

Sub Indexes

Mexico Costa Rica Uruguay Argentina Chile Brasil IAIF INTRA INTER SUPRA III- Results

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INTER-Sector Indicators – Sample

Ec. Infrast. Labour Prop. Rig. Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Costa Rica México Uruguay III- Results

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INTRA-Sector Indicators

For. Res FVL Dom. Market Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Costa Rica México Uruguay III- Results

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Perception Indicators

México Costa Rica Colombia Chile Brasil Argentina Ag. Policies Restrictions Adverse Supportive III- Results

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IV

PROMECIF and

IAIF Evolution

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What is PROMECIF?

ƒ Proceso de Mejoría del Clima de Negocios para

Inversiones en el Sector Forestal.

ƒ Process to Improve the Business Climate for Forest

Investments.

ƒ Process that uses IAIF’s methodology as a basis for

improving the climate for investments in sustainable forest businesses.

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PROMECIF’s three phases

I: Country identification and commitment to change. III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation. IV- PROMECIF

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The case for Nicaragua (2002)

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Recent developments

ƒ IDB licensed FGV and INCAE to calculate the IAIF every two years and to provide associated goods and services to governments and the private sector

ƒ IAIF 2004 will be presented in a event latter this year

ƒ PROMECIF is being (or about to be) applied in: Paraguay, Panama, Equator, and Honduras.

ƒ IAIF-BRAZIL: Index will be adjusted and calculated for Brazil’s states.

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Potential partners

– Multilateral Banks: Asian Development Bank; African Development Bank; World Bank

– UN related agencies: FAO; ITTO

– World Economic Forum Indexes partners

Current Partners:

Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil, for South America)

Current Partners:

Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil, for South America)

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Further information

ƒ www.iadb.org/pforestal

Referencias

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