These amounts must subsequently be repaid by the states that have signed this treaty. ON THE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA (ECLA) AND THE INTER-AMERICAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL (IA-ECOSOC).
THE MARKET FOR PETROLEUM The growth of petroleum exports was very rapid up
United States exports declined and imports increased until it became a net importer of crude oil in 1948. Because of the barrier between these areas, created by the US quota, prices in each were able to move independently.
THE CREATION OF DEMAND The rest of the economy has certainly grown, but
The petroleum sector (a) Exports
But the increase in the foreign assets of the Central Bank, although largely sterilized by a corresponding government. Even in the case of iron ore, the impetus for the rest of the economy has been limited.
THE RESPONSE OF SUPPLY Such a fast rise in demand created excellent condi-
Again, employment in the same sector is virtually independent of the level of output. An adjustment is made for local oil sales, which account for demand created in the rest of the economy but spent on oil. Consequently, real output in the rest of the economy rose between 1951 and 1957 at about the same rate as actual price expenditures, that is, 80 percent.
However, due to the increase in prices, the increase in the amount of production was only small. These weaknesses must be remedied, and the ministry's share of the budget has been increased sharply. The tariffs could not be increased further due to the reciprocal trade agreement with the US.
Film production developed rapidly, especially in the early period, and the production of printing presses also increased. Since prices in the rest of the world were rising, the import function would be flatter with a fixed price.^^® The tendency for the import coefficient to rise must therefore be regarded as questionable.
THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS The various influences on the balance of payments
Since prices in the rest of the world were rising, a fixed-price import function would be flatter.^^®. This function suggests that as exports increase, payments for profits and imports in the rest of the economy tend to increase even faster. Therefore, the earnings of the oil sector plus imports of goods and services in the non-oil sector account for almost the entire value of oil.
To assess the scope of the task, it will be helpful to recall what happened in the 1950s. On the other hand, the special properties of Venezuelan petroleum are likely to remain an important asset in the 1960s. Fixed capital therefore needs to be created at a rapid rate in the non-petroleum sector.
For example, the existence of a bloated construction workforce in the capital city (constantly augmented by migration from the countryside) is reduced. Therefore, it is unlikely that oil supplies will run out in the foreseeable future.
STATISTICAL SOURCES AND METHODS USED IN THE PREPARATION OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL
Background data on statistical sources and methods used in drawing up the table of transactions
The statistical data is largely derived from the compilations of the national income team. It was decided that the best plan would be to check the statistical data every time the line totals showed a discrepancy or error amounting to more than 5 percent of the total flow of goods. The table of intersectoral transactions therefore provided an estimate of total gross product that was slightly - although less than 5 percent - larger than that calculated by the national income group's traditional method at about the same time.
Any such modification would necessarily be arbitrary, and moreover the impression prevailed that greater accuracy could be attributed to the estimates of the gross product in the table than to the more aggregative estimates of national income. To complete the analysis, a separate table of transactions in imported goods and services was drawn up, the structure of which is exactly the same as that of the table of total transactions. In some cases they could be allocated fairly, as the nature of the goods left no room for doubt as to the sector of destination.
The input-output table can therefore be supplemented with the important aggregates of the gross national product. ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE ARGENTINE ECONOMY Using Leontief's open model to determine the.
ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE ARGENTINE ECONOMY By means of Leontief's open model establishing the
One of the basic models established for the Argentine economy is the open type calculated on the basis. ARGENTINA: TRIANGULATION OF THE MATRIX OF TOTAL TRANSACTIONS AND COEFFICIENTS OF INTERMEDIATE SALES AND TOTAL INVESTMENT WITH INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS. The coefficient of the total stake in the ratio. to the production of the Other country of Argentina. domestic investment coefficients of production sectors and inclusion in the sector of final export demand, total consumption and gross investment.
The sum across the columns of the production matrix gives the total content of intermediate imports in each of the 23 items of final demand. The allocation of all resources absorbed by the final demand is thus completed. The analysis of the cost structure of domestically produced goods and services for final demand can be presented in a summarized form for each aggregate of final demand (see Table 13).
One figure to which useful attention can be paid is that of the content of imports in exports. Therefore, it is worth determining how, given the current structure of the Argentine economy, the components of final demand affect each of the production sectors.
APPLICATION OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL IN PROJECTIONS FOR THE ARGENTINE ECONOMY
Intra-sectoral transactions
The aggregation of establishments or commodities gives rise to intrasectoral transactions, or in other words, to the absorption of goods produced by establishments or activities belonging to a particular sector as inputs in other establishments or activities grouped in the same sector. Two concepts of production emerge from these intrasectoral transactions, which Leontief calls 'gross output' and 'net output' respectively. Gross output represents the sum of items produced by all establishments in a given industry, and net output represents that portion of gross output sold outside the industry itself.
From an empirical analysis point of view, the models including intrasectoral transactions provide more complete information, although those excluding them are easier to handle. The model for Argentina, like Colombia and Peru, presents intrasectoral transactions. It should be noted that when the model includes commodity flows from external sources, it is important that these intra-sectoral transactions are still shown, as otherwise the total import amount would not be obtained and additional calculations would have to be made later.
The same applies to the need for complete data on imports of domestically produced goods. From the point of view of numerical computation, it is worth recalling that by virtue of the conventional hypothesis assumed in input-output models based on the stability of input coefficients, direct equivalences can be established between the two models, so that switching from one set of results to another involves only simple adjustments.
Level of sectoral aggregation
As soon as this assumption is related to the actual facts of the case, it is considered unnecessarily arbitrary, since a statistical unit is as a rule constituted by an enterprise producing a non-homogeneous commodity or a group of commodities, and it loses all validity when work is based on the models that can be assembled in practice, since each sector is an aggregate consisting of numerous heterogeneous enterprises or even of different types of goods. In practice, the measurement of these two concepts is somewhat imprecise, and depends on the degree of integration of the companies involved and on the system for compiling statistical data. If a projection for the agricultural sector had been desired, an error of less than 10 percent would have been included in the intermediate production figure, if instead of a 12-sector matrix, one of three sectors the breakdown of the agricultural sector had been used.
They related to the effects on specific sectors by different levels of aggregation of the rest of the economy. Nevertheless, when evaluating these experiments, it should be borne in mind that a matrix of 23 sectors for the Argentine economy already represents a high level of aggregation, and that the results also depend on the relative change produced in this specific case by each of the 23 last question items. The original plan was to test the results of the model against the statistical data for a period other than the base year.
Other general tests were applied to output in specific sectors and to final demand, assuming certain values for sectoral production; but, as already noted, these experiments were not, strictly speaking, tests of the model, but more precise variants of one and the same method of estimating final demand. Forecasts based on the input-output model In the study of the.
Projections based on the input-output model The input-output model was used in the study on the
For each of the hypotheses, several replacement programs were analyzed and given detailed consideration. Final demand data were used in these projections, which constituted partial final demand figures in the 12-sector input-output model. Production estimates are worked out from sectoral projections corresponding to the 12-sector matrix or on other bases, such as a ratio of product growth.
In tables 2 5 and 26 a comparison is made between the changes in the amount of production and imports that would take place up to 1967 in each of the most important economic sectors. Another point of interest was the quantitative assessment of the response of the various sectors to changes in final demand. Due to the lack of relevant data, changes in livestock stocks cannot be taken into account for most countries of the region.
The total number of heads slaughtered is determined on the basis of the slaughter carried out in each country's public and private slaughterhouses, plus that carried out in situ (ie in the countryside; this is usually unrecorded). Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay present their detailed livestock series with estimates of the number of cattle slaughtered on farms. In any case, the series presented are indicators of the changes that have taken place in this important sector.
For countries in the temperate zone where production peaks in the December-March period, data published by a country on a non-calendar year basis have been linked by ECLA to the second of the two years in question.
