CLIMATE CHANGE:

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!"#$%&’()’*+,##-’. /0 !

CLIMATE CHANGE:

SCIENCE, ECONOMICS and POLICY

Ronald G. Prinn

IMAGES From NASA’s TERRA satellite

Image by NASA. From Visible Earth.

PRESENTATION TO

22.811J: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY MIT, CAMBRIDGE MA

SEPTEMBER 14, 2010

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H

HO OW W H HA AS S T TE EM MP PE ER RA AT TU UR RE E E EV VO OL LV VE ED D O OV VE ER R T TH HE E P PA AS ST T 1 13 30 0 Y YE EA AR RS S? ?

G

Gllo ob ba all a an nn nu ua all s su urrffa ac ce e a aiirr tte em mp pe erra attu urre e a an no om ma ally y a as s e es sttiim ma atte ed d ffrro om m o ob bs se errv va attiio on ns s b by y N NA AS SA A--G GIIS SS S,, N

NO OA AA A--N NC CD DC C,, & & U UK KM MO O--H Ha ad dlle ey y C Ce en ntte err C Clliim ma attiic c R Re es se ea arrc ch h U Un niitt ((H Ha an ns se en n e ett a all,, 2 20 01 10 0))..

Source: Hansen, J., et al. "Global Surface Temperature Change." Review of Geophysics 48 (2010): RG4004.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345.

C

CL LIIM MA AT TE E F FO OR RC CIIN NG G D DU UE E T TO O IIN NC CR RE EA AS SE ES S IIN N G GR RE EE EN NH HO OU US SE E G GA AS SE ES S A AN ND D A

AE ER RO OS SO OL LS S F FR RO OM M 1 18 85 50 0--2 20 00 05 5 W WA AS S::

1 1..6 6 W W m m

^--2²

x x 5 5..1 1 x x 1 10 0

¹¹⁴⁴

m m

²²

= = 8 8..1 16 6 x x 1 10 0

¹¹⁴⁴

W W = = 8 81 16 6 T TW W ((a ab bo ou utt 5 52 2 ttiim me es s c cu urrrre en ntt g

gllo ob ba all e en ne errg gy y c co on ns su um mp pttiio on n))

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H

HO OW W H HA AV VE E G GL LO OB BA AL L & & C CO ON NT TIIN NE EN NT TA AL L T TE EM MP PE ER RA AT TU UR RE ES S C CH HA AN NG GE ED D O

OV VE ER R T TH HE E P PA AS ST T C CE EN NT TU UR RY Y ((1 19 90 06 6--2 20 00 05 5)),, A AN ND D W WH HY Y? ?

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure SPM.4. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

B

Blla ac ck k lliin ne es s::o ob bs se errv ve ed d c ch ha an ng ge es s.. B Bllu ue e b ba an nd ds s:: rra an ng ge e ffo orr 1 19 9 m mo od de ell s siim mu ulla attiio on ns s u us siin ng g n na attu urra all ffo orrc ciin ng gs s.. R Re ed d b ba an nd ds s:: rra an ng ge e ffo orr 5 51 1 m mo od de ell s siim mu ulla attiio on ns s u us siin ng g n na attu urra all a an nd d h hu um ma an n ffo orrc ciin ng gs s..

R

Reeff:: IIPPCCCC 44tthh AAsssseessssmmeenntt,, SSuummmmaarryy ffoorr PPoolliiccyymmaakkeerrss,, 22000077

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TWO COMMON WAYS TO EXPRESS POLICY GOALS FOR CLIMATE MITIGATION

(1) AIM TO KEEP GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASES BELOW SPECIFIED LEVELS

(for this purpose levels of non-CO

₂

gases are typically converted to their equivalent levels of CO

₂

that would

have the same effect on climate; we are currently at about 470 ppm CO

₂

equivalents)

(2) AIM TO KEEP GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASES BELOW SPECIFIED AMOUNTS

(relative to say pre-industrial or 1990; we are currently about 0.8

^o

C above pre-industrial)

BUT THESE SIMPLE CONCEPTS ARE AFFECTED BY THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IN PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIES AND CLIMATE:

NEED TO EVALUATE POLICIES BASED ON THEIR ABILITY TO LOWER RISK,

AND RE-EVALUATE DECISIONS OVER TIME

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WE USE THE MIT INTEGRATED GLOBAL SYSTEM MODEL

WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GREENHOUSE GAS STABILISATION TARGETS AND TEMPERATURE CHANGE

TARGETS UNDER UNCERTAINTY?

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)

^o

in red relative to e-industrial)

Stabilize at 550 (L1) 25% (80%)

H

HO OW W F FE EA AS SIIB BL LE E IIS S A A P PO OL LIIC CY Y T TA AR RG GE ET T T TO O L LIIM MIIT T W WA AR RM MIIN NG G T TO O L LE ES SS S T TH HA AN N 2 2

^o^o

C C? ? Cumulative PROBABILITY OF GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE AIR WARMING from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100, WITHOUT (1400 ppm-eq CO

₂

) & WITH A 550,

660, 790 or 900 ppm-equivalent CO

₂

GHG STABILIZATION POLICY (400 forecasts per case. Ref: Sokolov et al, Journal of Climate, 2009)

T > 2

(values

T > 2

^o

C C

(values in red relative to 1860 or pr

1860 or pre-industrial)

T > 4

^o

C T > 6

^o

C No Policy at 1400 100% (100%) 100% (100%) 85% 25%

Stabilize at 900 (L4) 100% 100% (100%) (100%) 25% 0.25%

Stabilize at 790 (L3) 97% 97% (100%) (100%) 7% < 0.25%

Stabilize at 660 (L2) 80% (97%) 80% (97%) 0.25% < 0.25%

Stabilize at 550 (L1)

T

TH H T TH HE ES SE E P PR RO OB BA AB BIIL LIIT TIIE ES S W

WII

25% (80%)

F

FO OR R W WA AR RM MIIN NG G E EX X

< 0.25%

C

CE EE ED DIIN NG G 2 2

^o^o

C C A AB BO OV VE E P P

< < 0.25% 0.25%

R

RE E--IIN ND DU US ST TR RIIA AL L,,

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STABILITY OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET

REFs: Bindschadler et al; ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Climate Impact Assessment Report, 2004

POLES WARM MUCH FASTER THAN TROPICS;

IF ICE SHEETS MELT, HOW MUCH SEA LEVEL

RISE COULD OCCUR?

STABILITY OF GREENLAND ICE SHEET

The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer (~4

^o

C)

than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 meters of sea level rise.

Ice Shield

Ice Dome

5 Meters Sea Level Rise

Continental Shell Edge Lithosphere

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

Map showing retreat of Greenland coastline due to 7 meters sea level rise has been removed due to copyright restrictions. See page 21 in Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). "Impacts of a Warming Arctic Climate Impact Assessment." Cambridge University Press, 2004.

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REF: ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Climate Impact Assessment

Report, 2004

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF ARCTIC TUNDRA &

PERMAFROST THAWS?

THIS WOULD INDUCE EMISSION OVER TIME OF THE 1670 BILLION TONS OF CARBON STORED IN ARCTIC TUNDRA

& FROZEN SOILS (TARNOCAI ET AL, GBC, 2009). THIS IS ABOUT 200 TIMES

CURRENT ANNUAL ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON EMISSIONS. THESE EMISSIONS

WOULD INCLUDE METHANE FROM NEW

& WARMER WETLANDS.

Map showing retreat of Greenland coastline due to 7 meters sea level rise has been removed due to copyright restrictions. See page 21 in Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). "Impacts of a Warming Arctic Climate Impact Assessment." Cambridge University Press, 2004.

IS ARCTIC SEA ICE AT THE END OF WINTER &

SUMMER DECREASING?

Time series of the percent difference in ice

extent in March (the month of ice extent

maximum) and

September (the month of ice extent minimum)

relative to the mean values for the period

1979–2000.

For the period 1979-2009, the rate of decrease of ice extent

is 2.5% per decade (March) and 8.9% per decade

(September).

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/sea_ice.html

Image from Perovich, D., et al. "Sea Ice Cover."

Arctic Report Card 2010, NOAA.

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OCEAN BOTTOM DEPTHS (meters) (MIT IGSM 3D OCEAN MODEL

INCREASED RAINFALL, SNOWFALL & RIVER FLOWS, & DECREASED SEA ICE, EXPECTED WITH

GLOBAL WARMING OVERTURN DRIVEN BY SINKING WATER IN THE POLAR SEAS (Norwegian, Greenland, Labrador,Weddell, Ross)

SLOWED BY DECREASED SEA ICE & INCREASED FRESH WATER INPUTS

INTO THESE SEAS

IF THE POLAR LATITUDES WARM TOO MUCH, COULD THE DEEP OCEAN CARBON & HEAT SINK COLLAPSE?

Runs of the MIT IGSM 3D OCEAN MODEL with 100 years of CO

₂

INCREASE then

STABILIZATION of CO

₂

for 900 years indicate IRREVERSIBLE COLLAPSE of OCEANIC OVERTURN if CO

₂

exceeds 620 ppm and CLIMATE SENSITIVITY exceeds

its current best estimate of 3.5

^o

C

Ref: Scott et al, MIT Joint Program Report 148, Climate Dynamics, v30, p441-454, 2008

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Top row: Annual mean, DJF and JJA temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models with A1B emissions scenario (-1 to +10^oC).

Bottom row: same as top, but for fractional change in precipitation (+/-50%).

Ref: IPCC 4th Assessment, Working Group 1, Chapter 11, 2007

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTED PATTERNS OF CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE (

^o

C) AND RAINFALL (%) (e.g. FOR NORTH AMERICA)?

MAXIMUM WARMING IN HIGH LATITUDE REGIONS

MAXIMUM % PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN POLAR REGIONS

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 11.15. Cambridge University Press.

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Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

= ^T ₀ V _max ³ dt (a measure

of storm destruction)

TYPHOONS/CYCLONES/HURRICANES & OCEANIC WARMING:

INCREASING DESTRUCTIVENESS OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS?

Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Nature.

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Sectors

Non-Energy Agriculture

Energy Intensive Other Industry Services

Industrial Transport Household Transport Other Household Cons.

Energy

Crude & Reﬁned oil, Biofuel

Shale oil Coal

Natural gas

Synthetic gas (from coal) Electricity

Crops Livestock Forestry

Food processing Biofuel crops Biomass Elec.

Technologies Included Fossil (oil, gas & coal) IGCC with capture NGCC with capture NGCC without capture Nuclear

Hydro

Wind and solar Biomass

Crude slate &

gasoline, diesel, petcoke heavy oil, biodiesel, ethanol, NGLs &

explicit upgrading

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST?

EPPA MODEL Sectors and Technologies

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HOW MUCH WILL IT COST?

EPPA MODEL Sectors and Technologies  

Sectors 

  Non‐Energy    Agriculture 

  Energy Intensive    Other Industry    Services 

  Industrial Transport    Household Transport        Other Household Cons. 

  Energy 

  Crude & Reﬁned oil,    Biofuel 

  Shale oil    Coal 

  Natural gas 

  SyntheCc gas (from coal)    Electricity 

Transport Alternatives

Conventional Gasoline/Diesel (continue to improve)

Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Pure Electric Vehicle

Bio-fueled Vehicle

Compressed Natural Gas Vehicle

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WL>1% WL>2% WL>3%

No Policy - - -

Stabilize at

900 1% 0.25% <0.25%

Stabilize at

790 3% 0.5% <0.25%

Stabilize at

660 25% 2% 0.5%

Stabilize at

550 70% 30% 10%

USING EPPA MODEL, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY FOR GLOBAL MITIGATION COSTS (expressed as % WELFARE* LOSSES in 2050),

WITH A 550, 660, 790 or 900 ppm-eq CO

₂

STABILIZATION POLICY?

WL>2%

-

0.25%

0.5%

2%

Stabilize at

550 70% 30% 10%

*

*A Ap pp prro ox xiim ma atte elly y tth he e tto otta all c co on ns su um mp pttiio on n o off g go oo od ds s & & s se errv viic ce es s

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Efficiency Gains (Transport

& Buildings)

Coal Gas Oil

B Biio o-- ffu ue ells s

C Co oa all w

wiitth h C C c

ca ap pttu urre e a

an nd d s

stto orra ag ge e

N

Nu uc clle ea arr

W

WH HA AT T IIS S T TH HE E S SC CA AL LE E O OF F T TH HE E C CH HA AL LL LE EN NG GE E T TO O T

TR RA AN NS SF FO OR RM M T TH HE E G GL LO OB BA AL L E EN NE ER RG GY Y S SY YS ST TE EM M? ?

e

e..g g.. U Us siin ng g E EP PP PA A M Mo od de ell,, G Gllo ob ba all P Prriim ma arry y E En ne errg gy y ffo orr a a ~ ~6 66 60 0 p

pp pm m C CO O

₂₂

--e eq qu uiiv va alle en ntt s stta ab biilliiz za attiio on n s sc ce en na arriio o w wiitth h n nu uc clle ea arr rre es sttrriic ctte ed d..

*Carbon price ~$1750/tonC in 2100 IIF F U UN NR RE ES ST TR RIIC CT TE ED D,,

N

NU UC CL LE EA AR R C CO OM MP PE ET TE ES S W WIIT TH H

&

& C CO OU UL LD D R RE EP PL LA AC CE E C CO OA AL L W

WIIT TH H C CC CS S..

S

SO OL LA AR R & & W WIIN ND D N NE EE ED D L

LA AR RG GE E C CO OS ST T R RE ED DU UC CT TIIO ON NS S T

TO O C CO OM MP PE ET TE E..

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FRACTION OF LAND IN 2100 DEVOTED TO BIO-FUELS PRODUCTION for TRANSPORTATION, etc. WITH A 660 ppm CO

₂

-equivalent STABILIZATION POLICY & DEFORESTATION

ARE THERE ISSUES REGARDING THE CONVERSION OF LAND FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY AT LARGE SCALES?

For bio-fuels to provide 240 EJ/year (7.5 TW or 60% of current demand or 18% of 2100 demand) requires more than 3.4 billion acres of land

dedicated to crops producing ethanol, which is 8.5 times the total US cropland, assuming 40% efficiency in the conversion of the biomass

(cellulose).

Ref: Melillo, et al, 2009

ISSUES FOR CONCERN

COMPETITION WITH FOOD FOR LAND & WATER

GREENHOUSE GAS RELEASE DURING LAND CONVERSION LOSS OF NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS (TROPICAL FORESTS)

CLIMATE EFFECTS OF LAND CONVERSION

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WHAT ARE EFFECTS OF SOLAR ARRAYS AT

LARGE SCALES (5.3 TW OVER

SAHARAN &

ARABIAN DESERTS) ON

SUNLIGHT ABSORPTION (W/

m

²

) AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE

(

^o

C)?

(Ref: Wang & Prinn, 2009)

SOLAR PANELS WARM INSTALLED DESERT REGIONS & WARM/COOL ELSEWHERE

CAN AVOID THESE EFFECTS BY ADDING REFLECTORS TO THE

ARRAY TO YIELD ORIGINAL REFLECTIVITY

NEED BACKUP GENERATION CAPACITY, POSSIBLY INCLUDING ON- SITE ENERGY STORAGE

Photo bySint Smedingon Flickr.

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WINDMILLS WARM INSTALLED LAND REGIONS & WARM/COOL ELSEWHERE

L

LIINNEEAARR AARRRRAAYYSS P

PEERRPPEENNDDIICCUULLAARR TTOO WWIINNDDSS F

FAAVVOORREEDD

W

WH HA AT T A AR RE E E EF FF FE EC CT TS S O OF F W

WIIN ND DM MIIL LL L A AR RR RA AY YS S A AT T L

LA AR RG GE E S SC CA AL LE ES S O ON N S

SU UR RF FA AC CE E T TE EM MP PE ER RA AT TU UR RE E O

OV VE ER R S SE EM MII--A AR RIID D L LA AN ND D ((L L,, 5 5T TW W,, 5 58 8 m miilllliio on n k km m

²²

))

((R Re eff:: W Wa an ng g & & P Prriin nn n,, A

Attm mo os s.. C Ch he em m.. P Ph hy ys s..,, 2

20 01 10 0))

N

NEEEEDD BBAACCKKUUPP GGEENNEERRAATTIIOONN C

CAAPPAACCIITTYY,, PPOOSSSSIIBBLLYY IINNCCLLUUDDIINNGG O

ONN--SSIITTEE EENNEERRGGYY SSTTOORRAAGGEE

INTERMITTENCY CHALLENGE:

Twenty-year averages and standard deviations of the monthly mean wind power consumption (dKE/dt) by simulated windmills installed in: North America (NA), South

America (SA), Africa and Middle East (AF), Australia

(AU), and Eurasia (EA).

Source: Wang, C., and R. G. Prinn. "Potential Climatic Impacts and Reliability of Very Large-Scale Wind Farms."

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 (2010): 2053-2061.

http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-2053-2010.

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• Oil

Foreign balance Political

dependence

• Natural gas Political

dependence

• Nuclear

Proliferation Safety & Waste

Policy reduces demand and

enhances biomass fuels

Policy reduces demand and

enhances supply diversity

Policy encourages needed regulatory reform

Off-shore Drilling Dirty substitutes

Tar Sands, Shale, Coal liquids

Shift to coal in electric power

Shift to coal

Security

Concerns Harmonies Conflicts

CLIMATE MITIGATION and/or ENERGY SECURITY?

BUT MOST CONFLICTS ALLEVIATED

WITH CARBON CAPTURE

AND

STORAGE

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CLIMATE ADAPTATION in addition to CLIMATE MITIGATION?

ADAPTATION MEASURES SHOULD INCLUDE:

WATER MANAGEMENT (QUALITY, QUANTITY) FOOD PRODUCTION (FLEXIBILITY, GENETICS)

DEFENDING OR RETREATING FROM COASTAL REGIONS HUMAN HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE (HEAT, DISEASE)

DEFENSE AGAINST SEVERE STORMS

REBUILDING PERMAFROST INFRASTRUCTURE

WE ARE ALREADY COMMITTED TO SOME UNAVOIDABLE WARMING EVEN AT CURRENT GREENHOUSE GAS

LEVELS (ABOUT 0.6 ^o C; IPCC, 2007)

ADAPTATION CAN HELP IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE

MITIGATION HELPS IN THE LONG TERM

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C

Co om mp pa arre ed d w

wiitth h N NO O P

PO OL LIIC CY Y

W

Wh ha att w wo ou ulld d w we e b

bu uy y w wiitth h S ST TA AB BIIL LIIZ ZA AT TIIO ON N a

att 6 66 60 0 p pp pm m--e eq qu uiiv va alle en ntt o off C CO O ₂ ₂ ? ?

A NEW WHEEL with lower odds

of EXTREMES

H

HO OW W C CA AN N W WE E E EX XP PR RE ES SS S T TH HE E V VA AL LU UE E O OF F A A C CL LIIM MA AT TE E P PO OL LIIC CY Y U UN ND DE ER R U UN NC CE ER RT TA AIIN NT TY Y? ?

http://web.mit.edu/global change

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MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu

22.081J / 2.650J / 10.291J / 1.818J / 2.65J / 10.391J / 11.371J / 22.811J / ESD.166J Introduction to Sustainable Energy

Fall 2010

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