Análisis estratégico del Social Media Plan de El Acebo de

Research Question four was designed to analyse the underlying models used in making and illuminate forecasts of ICT development in school education. An important part of policy analysis and formulation consists of predicting the effect of possible policy instruments. Included in this process is an evaluatio

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seriously as possible new policies. The consequences of an innovation are critic our understanding of policy development. “Policies are built on theories about the world, models of cause and effect” (Bridgman & Davis, 1998, p. 5). Forecasting is discipline that has its own cast of critics and supporters. It has been argued that all forecasting falls into one of two domains - a view that the future consists of “continuous progressive evolution”, and alternatively, that the future will be determined by “discontinuous change” (Jones, 1980, p. 23). Supporters of developmental futures tend in the main to be optimists and the latter group are inevitably labelled as pessimists. A variety of forecasting techniques are available include Delphic studies, axial principles, megatrends analysis and modelling. Each of these has some attributes that have made them useful for education policy analysis, and were used

The Delphic technique (Hogwood & Gunn, 1984, p.136) was used at the RAND organisation in the 1950s (Gordon & Helmer, 1966). It relies upon the “MacGregor Effect” reported by Loye (1978) which showed that predictions made by a group o people are more likely to be right than predictions made by the same individu working alone. The technique is particularly useful when the field of interest is so new as to have inadequate historical data for other methods to be applied (Lang, n.d.). The accuracy of the technique for short-range forecasting was established fairly conclusively (Ono & Wedemeyer, 1994), and its validity for long-range forecasting was shown in a 1976 study evaluated much later (Ascher & Overholt, 1983). Difficulties with the Delphi technique centre on the selection of participants, the tendency of individuals to follow group norms (Dalkey, 1972), and coordinators wh structure the feedback or frame questions that bias the results (Masini, 1993). A group

ore ied r the development of a model using rounded theory in the synthesis stage of Research Question four.

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hich combine to provide the paradox of the highly inter-connected conomics of the world and the rise of individualism. Each successive economic

n l, d mongst the North Carolina “ruthlessly small” nanocorps, which operate successful one-person businesses world-wide using the Internet (Salmons & Babitsky, 2000). Technology has made large industrial processes more able to accommodate the needs Ven & Gustafson, 1975; Ziglio, 1996, p. 14). A modified Delphi technique was therefore deemed appropriate for this study, with seven experts selected from the different countries examined. “Be cautiously sceptical of experts … always use m than one” (Pal, 1992, p. 278). They were all asked the same questions, but not provided amalgamated feedback for a second round of responses. This modif Delphi technique was used as a starting point fo

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The aggregation of terms required by grounded theory for model building was influenced by axial principles and megatrends analysis. These can be categorised as part of the “continuous progressive evolution” domain of forecasting. Bell (1973) used axial principles to describe the development of post-industrial society. Allen (1996) concurred with Bell’s description of the transition driven by production and profit from pre-industrial to industrial society; while knowledge and information are driving the transition to post-industrial society. Given that equity is a matter of significant concern to educational administrators and practising teachers, the application of Bell’s axial principles appears to be a sound and valid approac employ when considering RQ4. In order to apply this methodology, it was n

to identify the appropriate axial principles that would determine the adoption of ICT in education.

The megatrends approach is similar to Bell’s axial principles (Naisbitt, 1982; Naisbitt & Aburdene, 1990). The two relevant megatrends are #2 (1982) ‘Forced Technology → High Tech/High Touch’ and #1 (1990) ‘The Booming Global Economy of the 1990s’ w

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revolution (from agrarian to industrial, and industrial to post-industrial) has resulted i a greater degree of independence of the individual. Yet also, at an economic leve each increase in individualism has been built upon trading links that have stretched further afield. An example of this kind of individual empowerment can be foun a

te economies of scale (Dawson, re d

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age between a technology and its social plications. “The shaping of a technology is also the shaping of a society, a set of social and e

determinant of the consequences of a technology upon society is the way its introduction is managed through corporate governance, copyright or patent

legislation. This was evidenced by the case of the world’s most used micro-computer operating system software. Nineteen of the State governments in the USA won a case charging the maker, Microsoft, of monopolistic practices (US District Court of Columbia, 2000). Another determinant of interest to ICT in school education was the penetration of the innovation into student homes, and therefore web-data mining was used to gather data about future access trends and the likelihood of universal home access.

he development of a generic framework for ICT in school education was therefore of single customers into the mechanisms that genera

2000, 4.47; Robinson, 2002). The analogous concepts for ICT in school education a the idea of differentiation (catering for the learning needs of the individual) an digital replication (whereby learning materials can be disseminated globally without loss of quality). These concepts had to be factored into the construction of a

consolidated framework of ICT development.

The last of the four predictive forecasting techniques to be considered was

mathematical modelling This technique has been used to predict limits to the grow of human societies (Meadows, Meadows, Randers & Behrens, 1972) with a

sustainable limit at 20 billion, though most others estimate a peak of about 8.9 billion by 2050 (United Nations, 2000, p. I2). Given this predicted population growth, and the concern for equity and technological determinism expressed in the introduction to this thesis, the question arises as to the link

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conomic relations” (Bijker & Law, 1992, p. 105). An important

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shaped by the views of the experts through a modified Delphi technique. It took account of axial principles and megatrends illuminated by the case studies and the literature, and reflected the rapidly growing capacities of the underlying ICT.

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nce 94, p. 30). The design process

equired a series of progressive steps to collect and code data relevant to the research ies and

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