Aplicación en la dialectología

Climate Change Vulnerability

The Zambezi Basin is no exception when it comes to climate change, but the level of vulnerability differs as there is a diversity of impacts across the basin, including the occurrence of the disasters. For example, the water sectors Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia are not as vul- nerable to water scarcity as Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe. Although Malawi and Namibia have sufficient resources, much is inaccessible to most parts of the country. The level of vul-

nerability is impacted by both natural and human factors, and there is a rela- tionship between vulnerability due to climate change and poverty.

Poor people are often the ones to suffer injury, loss, death, or harm from droughts, floods, or other extreme events and they have less capacity to re- cover. This is due to lack of resources to cope with the climatic challenges. Vul- nerability to climate change is therefore a combination of factors that render some people and communities vulnera- ble to even small changes, especially those who are unable to diversify to other means of survival and livelihoods. Also vulnerable are those who lack ac- cess to productive land, and those who have been displaced from their homes due to floods, conflicts, or famine with- out receiving adequate humanitarian as- sistance (SARDC and HBS 2010).

Water Scarcity

There has been growing consensus that demand for water is outgrowing existing means of supply and it is likely that cli- mate change may inject yet greater un- certainty into future water availability. The total water supply is constant at global level, though local supply is sub- ject to various factors including climatic change and uncertainties in rainfall. Var- ious factors that further compound the likelihood of water scarcity at basin level

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Climate change can cause increase in the frequency of droughts.

are increasing population density, eco- nomic activity, and unsustainable water management practices, similar factors to those that have caused over-exploita- tion of the more easily accessible fresh- water resources around the globe (Vörösmarty and others 2010).

The current consumptive water use in the Zambezi River Basin is estimated around 15-20 percent of total runoff (SADC and SARDC 2008). Based on user types, the largest consumptive water users are dams – evaporation through impoundment, about 13 cubic kilometres per year; and irrigated agri- culture at about 1.5 cubic kilometres per year. This implies many development possibilities, particularly for irrigated agriculture and hydropower production. Development plans of the riparian countries in fact suggest that consump- tive water use might increase to up to 40 percent of total runoff by 2025 (SADC and SARDC 2008).

There is a wide diversity of pro- jected water scarcity among basin states, with Botswana, Malawi and Namibia being the most likely to experience seri- ous water stress within the next decade, and water demand is likely to develop unevenly across the basin over the next few decades (Hirji and others 2002).

Disaster Risk

The increase in the frequency, complex- ity and magnitude of natural disasters increases the vulnerability of communi- ties in the basin. Southern African is characterized by an extreme variability in rainfall which has been associated with a steady rise in the number of drought events over the past century, re-

sulting in a more frequent drought cycle. Between 1988 and 1992 the region ex- perienced more than 15 droughts and these had negative impacts on the human population (Tirivarombo 2011).

Although year-to-year droughts have been experienced, especially in the last decade, the current decade has seen floods of unprecedented magnitudes (SARDC and HBS 2010). Historical records indicate that extensive droughts affected the Zambezi Basin in 1981-82, 1986-87, 1991-92, 1994-95, 2001-02 and 2012-13, while floods ravaged parts of the Basin in 1999-2000, 2005-06, 2007- 09 and 2014-15 (SADC and SARDC and others 2008, ZAMCOM and SARDC 2015).

Storms due to tropical cyclones from the Indian Ocean also affect the Zambezi River Basin, and cyclone-in- duced floods have become more fre- quent. This aligns with predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on a range of models indicating that tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavier precipita- tion associated within increases in trop- ical sea surface temperatures (IPCC 2008). While the Zambezi Basin experi- ences seasonal and variable rainfall, re- sulting in cyclical spells of drought and intermittent floods, the recent increase in the variability and intensity of drought and floods is attributed to cli- mate change (SARDC and HBS 2010).

Impact of Flooding and Droughts

There has been concerted effort within the basin to mitigate against disasters through initiatives for disaster risk reduc- tion, but these are often different per- spectives on how to do this. The government of Mozambique, for exam- ple, embarked on a resettlement pro- gramme following the 2007 flood that affected 170,000 people in lower Zam- bezi. About 110,000 people (56,000 households) were displaced, but the re-

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Over-exploitation of water resources can cause water scarcity.

settlement programme prompted debate from international donors who pro- moted a “Living with the Floods” strat- egy which proposed flood-management practices that allow people to continue to live in flood-prone areas and take ad- vantage of the fertile soils that result from the floods. The development of early warning systems and generating awareness about timely evacuation were elements of the strategy. It was argued that living in flood-prone areas in Mozambique is not a matter of choice but a matter of poverty.

The government of Mozambique, however, favours a “flood-free” ap- proach to risk reduction which stresses the need to resettle people elsewhere who are living on the floodplains, argu- ing that continued habitation would pose higher risks to human life and that recurrent costs would eventually out- weigh the costs of permanent resettle- ment. In January 2008, another 334 families (about 1670 people) from Mozambique were forced into displace- ment camps in neighbouring Malawi, after flooding of the Shire River, one of the main tributaries of the Zambezi River (SARDC and HBS 2010).

Pollution

The infestation of the Zambezi Basin by aquatic weeds is a problem of regional

scale, which has occurred in several sub- basins, such as Kafue, Lake Kariba, Lake Chivero, Kwando-Linyanti and the Lower Shire.Waterweeds thrive when nutrients are present in comparatively high concen- trations and are therefore a problem closely related to eutrophication. In some watercourses, eg Lake Chivero in Zim- babwe, Kafue Gorge Reservoir in Zambia and Lake Kariba, this problem had reached critical levels until pragmatic mit- igation measures were undertaken. Atten- tion is therefore now focused on causative factors such as land use on the upstream catchment.

There is growing evidence that aquatic weed infestation is seriously af- fecting rural livelihoods around Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. The lake is home to 800-1,000 endemic fish species that could seriously suffer from such an event. In the Shire sub-basin the cover of weed has made lagoons and marshes dry out faster, exacerbat- ing low water-levels during droughts. This reduced fish stock and deprived local people of a major source of liveli- hood. The weed mats also harbours crocodiles and snakes, making it diffi- cult for women to fetch water and do washing in infested places. The prob- lem of aquatic weeds is not unique to the Zambezi Basin but has occurred throughout the SADC region.

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Interventions for Basin