ARMONÍA ENTRE EL COEFICIENTE INTELECTUAL (CI) Y COEFICIENTE EMOCIONAL (CE)

Biological recording of species distribution has come a long way since the 1960s when the Atlas of the British Flora was published 50 years ago. Awareness of the need to monitor species, the methods used, the ease of computerising data records and people generally more interested in nature, have all added to the data bank now available. Through these studies those species most at risk/vulnerable can be identified and the requirement for conservation attention flagged. These are often species on the edge of extinction, thermal specialist species physiologically sensitive to change, species lagging dangerously behind current climate change, and plants with poor dispersal abilities.

Careful interpretation of the data is, however, required due to recorder difference/effort since the earlier days of recording (Preston et al., 2012).

Repeat atlases have been compared and it is clear that agricultural intensification has led to bird and vascular plant species of arable farmland suffering the greatest declines (Preston et al., 2012). For species in more semi-natural habitats, the causes of change are less clear; studies looking at the ecological traits of species have yielded further insight into differences between species and within habitats, including Grime et al.’s (2007) detailed trait analysis of species, and Ellenberg et al.’s (1991) indicator values, which were less specific than Grimes, for monitoring change across Europe.

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4.9.1 Recent UK Gains and Losses (Changes in British Flora)

The Botanical Society for the British Isles (BSBI) carried out a repeat of surveys done in 1987 in 2004 to map the changes in the British flora; species traits in broad habitats were looked at to identify the variability of range change (Braithwaite et al., 2006). An assessment of calcareous grassland species showed that annual species, preferring nutrient–rich soils, and/or of a southerly European distribution have fared better than the larger groupings of biennial and perennial species that require low fertility habitats. Greater knapweed (Centaurea scabiosa) is a typical calcareous grassland species; the results of survey indicate its decline in range by about 26%. There has also been a decrease in Birds-foot trefoil. There are many studies which also make similar deductions of declines in plants favouring nutrient-poor habitats, as well as overall decreases in species diversity/richness (Walker et al., 2009; McClean et al., 2011).

The BSBI Local Change survey also revealed that certain plant species with a southern distribution, such as the Bee Orchid (Ophrys apifera) have extended their range northwards, with the Pyramidal Orchid (Anacamptis pyramidalis) also increasing its range (Braithwaite et al., 2006). Orchid seeds are much smaller than the majority of vascular plants, and so dispersal could be due to human activities, rather than climate change (Preston et al., 2012). Whilst some orchids are increasing in range, the Burnt Orchid (Neotinea ustulata) has undergone significant declines in the British Flora (Plantlife, 2000).

New species are being gained, as areas lose species, but the gains do not compensate for the losses which are mainly native flowers of natural habitats, with a consequent less diverse flora. The gains tend to be commonplace species, typically present in un-natural habitats like road verges and wasteland (Plantlife, 2000). “The increase in species such as cow parsley, brambles, coarse grasses and stinging nettle is linked to an increase in soil fertility as a result of nitrogen pollution from farms, power stations and car exhausts”. Rare plants are better protected than scarce ones, through the likes of SSSIs, but even protected sites are affected.

In contrast, the 2007 Countryside Survey reported no evident changes in plant distribution or abundance in those fixed plots surveyed since 1978, relating to those in line with climate change (Carey et al., 2008). Studies monitoring the response of animals distribution in relation to climate change have been analysed by Hickling et al. (2006); it was found that 13 of the 16 taxonomic groups studied with southerly distributions in Britain (including both vertebrates and invertebrates) have shifted their range northwards. A study of such scale is yet to have been done for plant species in the UK, which may yet detect changes in response to climate change.

97 4.9.2 Other Drivers of Change

The change in species distributions may not all be attributable to climate change, there are other factors which could be responsible for some of the changes seen to date. With the increase in urban development, the species that are typically found in habitats associated on urban land may have resultantly expanded their range (Pateman, 2012). The upward shift of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in Scotland is more than likely as a result of a decrease in grazing pressure (French et al., 1997), and may explain similar shifts found in other high altitude treeline regions. Plant species which thrive in areas experiencing more nitrogen deposition may have also increased their ranges here (Britton et al., 2009). Conservation programmes aimed at specific species, and better management of land may also have led to the range increase of species, including Plantlife’s Back from the Brink species recovery programme.

Sometimes organisms are unintentionally transferred to areas which they can survive in and thus boundaries expand to distances not possible otherwise, as seen with the pine processionary moth in a study by Robinet et al. (2012). The planting of Alder Buckthorn (Frangula alnus) in ornamental assemblages in North Wales has facilitated the range expansion of one of its harbouring species - the brimstone butterfly, and similar plantings may lead to other species range expansions (Pateman, 2012). Such examples illustrate that changes in the climate are not the only drivers of species distributional change.

4.9.2.1 Reasons for Species Decline

Reasons for species decline, as noted by Plantlife (2000) other than climate change, habitat fragmentation and intrinsic dispersal constraints, include changes in management practices, drainage of the countryside, and a decline in water quality. Corn cockles, cornflowers, corn marigolds, corn buttercups, corn cleavers and narrow-leaved hemp-nettles have declined in all but most arable counties. Woodland plants have suffered from neglect, with only shade-loving species now thriving.

Agricultural intensification, farm fertilisers and atmospheric pollution have lead to increases in soil fertility, a condition favoured by vigorous hostile plants, leading to declines in wildflowers which prefer naturally infertile conditions (Plantlife, 2000). The biotic constraints to a species colonisation beyond their current range may be inhibited due to the presence of herbivores. The current distribution of some species may be down to a combination of factors, and thus future patterns of spread will be unknown.

4.9.3 Biotic Interactions

With climate likely to affect the abundance and diversity of natural enemies and competitors, an indirect effect of the climate will be the biological interactions it creates between invasive species

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and native species along climatic gradients (Thomas, 2010), the outcomes of which could differ with climate change. It is unpredictable to say to what degree climate change will alter the distribution capabilities of certain species, and their ability to colonise new communities, as such interactions are complex and each species is different, i.e. dependant on their ability to withstand natural enemies, and their ability to compete for resources (Pateman, 2012).