lorm the subject matter of internal migration. In order to obtain a 1971 de jure population, all persons who were not usual residents of their dwelling on census night were excluded from the universe of movers and stayers. This procedure causes a substantial loss of information as the statistics give no information about the mobility of some 132,965 people in Victoria who were not usual residents of the dwelling they occupied on census night.
Rewriting the census question could eliminate some of the above
difficulties. Alternatively, a different kind of migration question might be used. It is suggested in U.N. Manual VI that two questions covering duration of residence and place of last residence can yield as much
49
information as a question on residence at a fixed prior date. This suggestion, however, overlooks the problem that fixed interval data could not be calculated from the answers to the two questions. For example, if
the required migration interval was five years, no information would be available about the place of residence five years earlier of people who moved, say, two years before the census. The fixed interval question therefore has more to commend it than a pair of questions on duration of residence and place of last residence. Below is a proposal for amending two questions in the 1971 census schedule to improve the collection of
internal migration data in the 1976 census. The amendments involve a slight extension of the question on usual place of r e s i d e n c e , a n d a restructuring of the internal migration question.
This impression was gained from coding migration survey data for the thesis.
49
United Nations, Methods of Measuring Internal Migration, p.23.
^^ On the next page is a facsimile of the 1971 census question on usual residence.
18 ( 1) Q u e s t i o n on u s u a l p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e . ( a ) I s t h i s p e r s o n a u s u a l r e s i d e n t o f t h i s d w e l l i n g ? ______ Yes ______ No - g i v e p l a c e o f u s u a l r e s i d e n c e : ________________________________________________________________________9 _____________________________________________________________9 _______________________________________ _______________ • town o r c o u n t r y d i s t r i c t s t a t e o r p r o v i n c e c o u n t r y (b) I s y o u r u s u a l p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e i n a c i t y , town o r v i l l a g e ? ______ Yes ____ __ No - g i v e name o f n e a r e s t c i t y , town o r v i l l a g e : ___ ______ (2) Q u e s t i o n on i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n . Did t h i s p e r s o n l i v e a t t h i s a d d r e s s i n J u n e 1971? ( i . e . 5 y e a r s a g o ) ______ Yes - go t o n e x t q u e s t i o n . ______ No - g i v e p l a c e o f u s u a l r e s i d e n c e i n J u n e 1 97 1 : ________________________________________________________________________9 9 _____________________________________________ * town o r c o u n t r y d i s t r i c t s t a t e o r p r o v i n c e c o u n t r y Was t h i s 1971 p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e i n a c i t y , town o r v i l l a g e ? ______ Yes ____ _ No - g i v e name o f n e a r e s t c i t y , town o r v i l l a g e : _______ ___ 50 ( c o n t i n u e d ) Column© Is t h i s p e r s o n a u s u a l r e s i d e n t o f t h i s d w e l l i n g ? ___ NÖTE
A 'usual' resident is any person who has lived hero lor Ihn last G months, or who will he spending 0 months or more during 1971 in this d w el ling, OR any person who is herenow and who has no usual place of residence.__________
I I Yes
j | No -► Give State, Territory or Country of usual residence
19 The s u g g e s t e d r e v i s i o n s wo ul d e n a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n t o be c o l l e c t e d on t h e d e j u r e p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e i n 1971 and 1976 o f a l l p e r s o n s i n A u s t r a l i a a g e d f i v e y e a r s o r more i n 1 9 7 6 . The i n f o r m a t i o n o n f a r m o r n o n - f a r m r e s i d e n c e wou ld e n a b l e t h e d w e l l i n g p l a c e t o b e c o d e d more a c c u r a t e l y an d wo u ld p r o v i d e more p r e c i s e d a t a f o r t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . At t h e c o d i n g a n d t a b u l a t i o n s t a g e s o f t h e c e n s u s , e f f o r t s s h o u l d b e made t o m a i n t a i n a c l e a r d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n i n t r a - u r b a n and i n t e r - u r b a n m o v e m e n t s . 1 . 6 . 2 E s t i m a t e s o f Net Migr a t i o n S i n c e t h e r e i s no d i r e c t I n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n i n t h e A u s t r a l i a n c e n s u s p r i o r t o 1 9 71 , e s t i m a t e s h a v e t o b e made t o p r o v i d e d a t a a b o u t movement d u r i n g e a r l i e r i n t e r c e n s a l p e r i o d s . M o r e o v e r , f o r t h e 1 9 6 6 - 7 1 p e r i o d , t h e c e n s u s c o n t a i n s o n l y a s m a l l amount o f i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t m i g r a t i o n t o and f ro m t o wn s a n d c o u n t r y a r e a s . T h e r e f o r e i n t h i s s t u d y n e t m i g r a t i o n e s t i m a t e s h a v e b e e n c a l c u l a t e d f o r 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 a s w e l l a s f o r e a r l i e r i n t e r c e n s a l p e r i o d s , t o p r o v i d e s u p p l e m e n t a r y m i g r a t i o n d a t a a b o u t s m a l l a r e a s , t o s u p p l y c o m p a r a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r a l l t h e i n t e r v a l s u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n , a n d t o e n a b l e a c o m p a r i s o n o f c e n s u s m o b i l i t y d a t a and n e t m i g r a t i o n e s t i m a t e s t o b e made. 52 The m e t h o d s o f e s t i m a t i n g n e t m i g r a t i o n a r e d e s c r i b e d i n many t e x t s and o n l y a summary o f m e t h o d s i s g i v e n h e r e p a y i n g p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o 53 t h e r e l a t i v e u t i l i t y o f d i f f e r e n t a p p r o a c h e s i n t h e A u s t r a l i a n c o n t e x t . The c e n s u s s u r v i v a l r a t i o (CSR) m et h od o f e s t i m a t i n g n e t m i g r a t i o n i s g e n e r a l l y r e g a r d e d a s p r e f e r a b l e t o t h e l i f e t a b l e s u r v i v a l r a t i o (LTSR) a p p r o a c h , m a i n l y b e c a u s e c e n s u s s u r v i v a l r a t i o s s e r v e a s c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s f o r t h e u n d e r e n u m e r a t i o n a n d m i s s t a t e m e n t o f a g e s i n t h e s t a t i s t i c s u s e d f o r At t h e t i m e o f w r i t i n g , m i g r a t i o n d a t a f o r l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t a r e a s i n 1971 w e r e a v a i l a b l e i n t h e f o r m o f a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e i n 1 9 6 6 . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n had t h e f o l l o w i n g c a t e g o r i e s : same d w e l l i n g , same
s t a t i s t i c a l d i v i s i o n , same s t a t e , o t h e r s t a t e . See s e c t i o n 4 . 7 . 1 . 52
F or e x a m p l e , U n i t e d N a t i o n s , Met h o d s o f M e a s u r i n g I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n , and S h r y o c k and S i e g e l , Th e M e t h o d s a nd Mat e r i a l s o f Demo g r a p h y , Volume 2, C h a p t e r 2 1 .
53
F o r a more d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s e m e t h o d s and some a s p e c t s o f t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n s i n A u s t r a l i a s e e Hugo, I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n i n S o u t h A u s t r a l i a , p p . 6 8 - 1 0 3 .
20
computing the estimates. However, in Australia the CSR technique is unsatisfactory for estimating net movement during the post war period, largely because the country has been open to substantial external migration during this time.
Use of the CSR method in Australia would entail subtracting intercensal overseas departures from age groups in the initial population and subtracting intercensal permanent overseas arrivals from the terminal population being used as the base for the ratios. The subtractions would give an initial population which either remained or died in Australia during the intercensal period, and a terminal population which both stayed and survived in
Australia over the same time. A set of census survival ratios could then be calculated from the two base populations and applied to the study areas to obtain net migration e s t i m a t e s . D e s p i t e these adjustments three main problems persist in the application of the CSR method to small areas in Australia. First, data on the ages of overseas arrivals and departures
5 6 are available only for Australia as a whole and not for individual states. Consequently, the census survival ratios would need to be based on the
national population rather than a state or regional population. Writers have advised that the census survival ratios should be computed for a regional population rather than a national one, in order to compensate for local
differences in age reporting, as well as in mortality.^ Survival ratios for regional populations could be derived, but it is not desirable to introduce extra assumptions into the estimation procedure, particularly when net
migration is being calculated for very small populations. Secondly, the CSR method cannot easily be applied to the seven year intercensal periods
1947-1954 and 1954-1961 because external migration data are published only for five year age groups. In order to survive a population over a seven year interval, statistics on single year ages are needed. Such data might be
United Nations, Methods of Measuring Internal Migration, pp.29 & 36.
This approach was described by Hugo, Internal Migration in South Australia, p p .95-96.
5 6
These data are published annually in A.B.S. Demography.
^ Hamilton, C. Horace and Henderson, F.M., 'Use of the Survival Rate Method
in Measuring Net Migration', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1944, 39, p .201.
21
obtained by distributing ages, but the procedure was not advisable here as