Monash University, (migration in Melbourne). L. Turner, Department of Geography, University of New South Wales, (migration in New South Wales), B.J. Ward,
12
This study of Victoria has drawn on three principal sources of information: the 1971 census statistics of internal migration; estimates of net migration based on census data and Australia life tables; a
residence history survey conducted by the writer. Public records such I
as electoral rolls were not used because of their deficiencies, and because time spent in amassing Information from them could be more profitably spent on survey work.
The advantages and disadvantages of federal electoral rolls as sources 39
of migration data have been discussed by Hugo. He noted that the main source of bias in the electoral roll data for the 1961-66 period was the absence of information on the highly mobile age group 15-20. Other problems arose from the ineligibility of aliens to vote, and the incomplete enrollment of persons eligible to vote. Since Hugo wrote, however, the situation has been changed by the lowering of the voting age from 21 to 18 years, and by the 1971 census. Changes in the voting age have reduced the comparability of statistics collected between successive elections, and for the period
since 1966 the census provides more reliable and more complete information on population movement than do the electoral rolls. Electoral rolls are
S.
thus superseded as records of recent large scale population movements, though they remain valuable for historical research on internal migration as well as for detailed studies of origins or destinations.
1.6.1 The 1971 Census
Although the 1971 census is the most comprehensive source of information on recent internal migration in Australia, it does not provide an ideal set of statistics for demographic work, partly because it had to be tailored to the needs of a wide range of users, and partly because of problems in the collection and tabulation of the statistics. The June 1971 census was the first Australian census to seek direct information on internal migration. A facsimile of the migration question from the householder's schedule is
given on the next page. The question sought information on a person's place of residence at the time of the previous census in June 1966. The migration interval was therefore fixed at five years. The Australian census question resembled the population mobility question used in the 1970 Census of the United States, which also sought information about places of residence at the
39
13
^9 ^ Did th is person live a t this address in June 1966? (i.e. 5 years ago)
Yes [~ |- > G o to instruction follow ing this question
No
n
y
Did th is person live in a city, to w n or village in June 1966 ?
Yes I ] No ! !
t *
Give name of that Give name of city, city, tow n or village tow n or village which
was NEAREST (If overseas write '0 ')
Name of city, town or village... State, Territory... ...
start and end of a fixed period. This type of census question is regarded
by some demographers as the best single source of data on population movement because it yields data on gross migration, net migration, spatial patterns
41
and migrant characteristics over a definite time period. The five year
migration interval permits large enough frequencies to be accumulated to be free from chance variations without being too seriously affected by attrition
42 due to mortality and by inaccurate recall of the earlier place of residence. Also, the fixed interval permits cross-tabulation of origins and destinations, while the use of the intercensal period as the migration interval in Australia
facilitates comparisons of population characteristics before and after the movement has occurred.
There are a number of problems inherent in the Australian mobility statistics, some of which are minor problems which could not be rectified without introducing formidable difficulties, while others are more serious
but are open to solution. Some minor problems are associated with the use
of a five year migration interval. Since the question necessarily concerned
Shryock and Siegel, The Methods and Materials of Demography, Volume 2, p.646. ^ Ibid., p .646.
42
United Nations, Methods of Measuring Internal Migration , Manuals on Methods of Estimating Population, Manual VI, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, 1970, p.19.
14
only persons who were alive in both 1966 and 1971, children aged 0-4 years were excluded, as were people who died during the census interval.
Furthermore, the data supply no information about people who made multiple moves during the period, people who moved within Australia and subsequently emigrated, and people who moved but returned to their original home address by the time of the 1971 census. The resulting under-estimation of the number of moves and the number of movers, however, is a deficiency which cannot be corrected without sacrificing more important requirements.
Attempts to shorten the interval, for example, would create problems of low frequencies, while enumeration of more than one move would make the census data unwieldy.
A greater problem is that the lack of a clear definition of internal migration in the census detracts from the usefulness of the statistics, which should be regarded as statistics of population mobility rather than
internal migration. They cover not only moves between communities (internal migration), but also moves within communities (local movement), especially
intra-urban migration. Although both types of data are valuable, they are not adequately differentiated in the tabulations so far produced. The principal units for which the mobility statistics have been tabulated are
/ Q
statistical divisions, ten of which cover the State of Victoria (Figure 1.1), Statistical divisions in 1971 were delimited by state governments in
accordance witli their own requirements, and the Bureau of Census and
Statistics tabulated data for these areas. The ten statistical divisions of Victoria, shown in Figure 1.1 were derived by grouping complete local
government areas. Apart from the Melbourne, West Central and East Central statistical divisions, the divisions were derived from 'statistical districts' used in the publication of earlier statistical series. Statistical districts were drawn to represent combinations of counties with a high degree of
homogeneity in terms of their topography, drainage systems, climate and
rural land use. Statistical divisions, however, are based on local government areas, rather than counties, and the boundaries of the older statistical
districts do not correspond exactly with those of the statistical divisions. In 1966, the Melbourne and Central statistical divisions were divided into three parts - Melbourne, West Central and East Central. The 1966 Melbourne Statistical Division was delimited for the purpose of defining the area of anticipated development of Melbourne and associated smaller urban centres in coming decades. (See Linge, G.J.R., The Delimitation of Urban Boundaries, Department of Human Geography, Australian National University, Canberra,
1965). The West Central and East Central statistical divisions were residual areas remaining after the new Melbourne statistical division had been delimited. Apart from the Melbourne Statistical Division, the current Victorian statistical divisions are considered unsatisfactory as a basis for publishing regional
statistics and it is anticipated that new statistical divisions will be adopted for the 1976 census. (This footnote is based mainly on a communication from
15