b Inventario de los principales “aluviones”

3.2.1 In terms of whether the industrial market is a growth sector for Stirling, it is clear that although the sector is in long term decline, it does benefit from renewal of stock, growth in selected sectors and demand from non- manufacturing occupiers such as distribution, wholesale and utilities. These sub-sectors will be less inclined to pay premium land prices. They are likely to require large specialist bespoke distribution units with yard areas or smaller workshop premises, say for local utility operations. In the past couple of years, Stirling has experienced strong demand for light industrial and trade units, such as those developed and being occupied in Borrowmeadow Road and the new Springkerse Trade Park.

3.2.2 In terms of their overall size, these sectors are small and are unlikely to make any major impact on employment change. If anything, they will act to counteract decline in other industrial based sectors (e.g. a number of manufacturing sub-sectors). However, these sectors are likely to drive demand for new-build or modern industrial property as much of the existing industrial stock is pre-1960s and unlikely to meet modern occupier requirements.

3.2.3 A further factor in the industrial sector is the displacement of activity. There is increasing pressure on the stock of industrial premises as centrally-located sites are redeveloped to provide housing or commercial activity, such as retail or leisure. Provision needs to be made for replacement of these sites on the edge of urban areas to alleviate business space pressures on businesses involved in industrial based sectors.

3.2.4 A recent example of the displacement of a city-centre industrial site, was the demolition of the Burghmuir Industrial site in June 2009 to make way for other proposed uses, including retail, housing, hotel and leisure.

3.2.5 Significant pressure is currently being put on a number of key sites for the development of new retail and other commercial space. These sites include:

- Burghmuir – currently subject to an outline planning application for a superstore (3,475 sq m gross), other Class 1 (non-food) retail of 1,625 sq m, Class 3 (food & drink), Class 7 (hotel), Class 9 (houses) and Class 11 (assembly & leisure).

- Stirling Enterprise Park (STEP) – consent issued for a 6,900 sq m gross (3,105 sq m net) convenience superstore.

- Crookbridge – currently subject to an outline planning application for a 9,290 sq m gross convenience superstore, other Class 1 (non-food) retail of 929 sq m, Class 3 (food and drink), Class 4 (business), Class 7 (hotel) and Class 11 (leisure).

- Former MFI / Parkhead Building Supplies – currently subject to an outline planning application for a superstore circa 6,000 sq m gross floorspace.

3.2.6 As there is currently a lack of effective industrial sites being promoted, developers and expanding local businesses are increasingly looking to green- field and rural sites for industrial development. Recent examples include

development of Manor Farm for industrial use (07/00635/DET), a planning application by Tradstocks for a new plant on a green-field site near Craigforth (09/00160/OUT) and a planning application for a major mixed-use (business, industry and storage) development at Hill of Drip (09/00409/OUT).

Stirling Analysis

3.2.7 The total stock of industrial premises across the Stirling Council area is 244,751sq m, around 1% of the total industrial stock within Scotland.

3.2.8 Within the Stirling Council area, the main industrial locations are listed in Table 3.3 below:

TABLE 3.3: INDUSTRIAL LOCATIONS

Location Comment

Springkerse / Broadleys This is an industrial and business location situated to east and south of the city centre. It consists mainly of small to medium sized Class 5 & 6 uses. Broadleys is a development by Stirling Development Agency which as well as providing a range of industrial and business space offers limited ‘design and build’ opportunities to meet individual company requirements.

Bandeath Industrial Estate An existing industrial estate located a few miles to the east of the City of Stirling. The estate has an extensive range of general industrial and storage units and sites mainly for medium to large industrial space users.

Back O’Hill Industrial Estate Located to the north of Stirling. The estate lies within an area currently undergoing regeneration. The estate has benefited from environmental improvements as well as expansion and provision of industrial space. It maintains a high level of occupancy and there are proposals for development of further industrial space.

Source: Stirling Council

3.2.9 Outwith the City of Stirling a number of locations have a range of industrial accommodation including Dunblane (Duckburn Industrial Estate), Callander (Lagrannoch Industrial Estate), Doune (Lochills Industrial Estate), Balfron (Dunmore Street) as well as the eastern villages of Plean (Plean Industrial Estate), Cowie (Main Street) and Fallin (Polmaise Park).

3.2.10 The chart below depicts available supply and take-up of industrial property for the Stirling Council area. Available supply of floorspace fluctuated between a high of 22,816 sq m in 2000/01 and a low of 2,584 sq m in 2004/05. While available industrial supply remained tight at less than 10,000 sq m per annum between 2002/03 and 2007/08 and representing limited choice in the market, supply increased by 37% to 11,475 in 2008/09. This increase is directly linked to a sharp drop in take-up in 2008/09.

3.2.11 Take-up is also quite volatile, fluctuating between a high of 7,580 sq m in 2000/01 and a low of 1,836 in 2004/05. While take-up increased per annum from April 2005 to March 2008, showing growing demand for industrial space, it fell by 60% between 2007/08 and 2008/09 to 2,243 sq m. This reflects the range of pressures faced by businesses due to the current economic downturn, including difficulties accessing finance and reduced demand for some industrial products and services.

is 6,689 sq m. Average 12-month take-up is 4,038 sq m, around 60% of average supply and 1.7% of total stock (at 2009 level).

3.2.13 One of the main reasons for this low, fluctuating take-up rate is the lack of supply of available industrial units. The Stirling Council area has one of the lowest industrial availability rates in Scotland.

3.2.14 While available supply was very low between 2003 and 2007, there was some improvement in 2007/08 with additional space coming onto the market. In contrast, the increase in 2008/09 is more likely to be due to the drop in take-up. This drop reflects a drop in take-up at Scotland level due to the economic downturn, rather than a long-term decline in demand for industrial units in the Stirling Council area.

Figure 3.4

Stirling Council Area

Industrial Available Supply and Take-up

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Apr - Mar 97/ 98 Apr - Mar 98/ 99 Apr - Mar 99/ 00 Apr - Mar 00/ 01 Apr - Mar 01/ 02 Apr - Mar 02/ 03 Apr - Mar 03/ 04 Apr - Mar 04/ 05 Apr - Mar 05/ 06 Apr - Mar 06/ 07 Apr - Mar 07/ 08 Apr - Mar 08/ 09 sq m SUPPLY TAKE-UP

Source: Scottish Property Network

Notes: The higher take-up than available supply in 2003/04 and 2006/07 can be explained by bespoke units being transacted as these would not previously have been on the market (and thus recorded as supply).

3.2.15 Table 3.5 below analyses available supply of industrial units in the Stirling Council area at April 2009 by size band:

Table 3.5: AVAILABLE INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY, STIRLING COUNCIL AREA, APRIL 2009

Size band (sq m) Number of properties Area (sq m)

0-99 16 949 100-199 14 2,049 200-499 11 3,339 500-999 10 7,321 1000+ 3 4,051 Total 54 17709

Source: Scottish Property Network

3.2.16 The available supply is concentrated in smaller industrial units. Of the 54 available units, 94% (51 units) are smaller than 1,000 sq m, and 76% (41 units) are smaller than 500 sq m. In floorspace terms, the Stirling Council area’s industrial availability rate is 7.2% (based on stock in June 2009), significantly lower than the 12% average for Scotland as a whole.

3.2.17 Limited supply of available industrial units restricts the opportunities for businesses to expand, downsize or simply move to more suitable premises. It also limits choice for companies looking at relocating or starting up within the Stirling Council area – e.g. the Stirling Council area is less attractive than surrounding areas offering greater choice / supply.

3.2.18 Analysis of the age profile of available industrial supply in the Stirling Council area at 31st March 2009 demonstrates that, by floorspace, 40% is pre-1960’s property with 23% built after 2000. It is likely that, even if long-term repair and maintenance regimes are in place, a high proportion of these pre-1960’s available units will require extensive refurbishment, redevelopment or even demolition / new build to be attractive for modern business. This means that the available supply provides very limited choice for businesses involved in modern industrial sectors – e.g. just 2,565 sq m of the supply is new-build. 3.2.19 The low industrial availability rate is in part due to demand for industrial units

in the Stirling Council exceeding supply in the recent past. This market failure is due to pressures for alternative use on traditional industrial locations, such as Burghmuir, Springkerse and Broadleys. These sites are both close to the city centre and the Eastern distributor road, which provide both profile and access making them attractive for various types of retail, service and leisure uses. These sites present a good opportunity to redevelop areas in the city centre for office / business premises, but there is uncertainty on how they will be developed due to the general shortage of centrally situated sites for all types of development.

3.2.20 Another factor influencing the Stirling Council area’s low industrial availability rate is the inclusion of the vacant and derelict magazine units at Bandeath Industrial Estate in the Scottish Property Network stock figures, but not in their availability figures (the units aren’t currently being marketed). However, the magazine units are unattractive to modern occupiers (due to age and condition) and are not regarded as part of the ‘effective’ supply.

3.2.21 Table 3.6 below identifies take-up of industrial units in the Stirling Council area in the 12 months to March 2009. All of the industrial units sold or let (2,243 sq m) were smaller than 500 sq m.

Table 3.6: TAKE-UP OF INDUSTRIAL PREMISES, STIRLING COUNCIL AREA, APRIL 2008 TO MARCH 2009

Size band (sq m) Number of properties Area (sq m)

0-99 11 629 100-199 4 597 200-499 3 1017 500-999 - - 1000+ - - Total 18 2,243

Source: Scottish Property Network

3.2.22 Given a current availability of 17,709 sq m and take-up of 2,243 sq m, this would imply over seven years supply. However, the current recession needs to be taken into account, with a significant drop in take-up over the last year due to businesses experiencing difficulties accessing finance and tough market operating conditions.

3.2.23 Low supply of modern industrial units in recent years has been a significant constraint on growth as it has effectively curtailed interest and ultimately take- up across the full spectrum of sectors and sizes from mobile investment requirements to latent local demand. At a local level this lack of suitable supply constrains a wide range of firms from those seeking start-up premises to those wishing to trade up or down in terms of property size and / or quality. 3.2.24 The low vacancy rate in recent years and the lack of available supply of

modern units suggests that once the recession is over, should new industrial property be developed in an appropriate location it is likely to benefit from latent demand.

3.2.25 Table 3.7 shows that in the period July 2008 to June 2009, Scottish Property Network recorded 29 industrial property transactions for the Stirling Council area. This compares with 35 industrial transactions recorded for the previous year. The lower figures recorded for the most recent year were due to the recession and difficult market conditions.

3.2.26 Out of the 29 industrial transactions recorded for the July 2008 to June 2009 time period, 24 properties were leased, one was assigned and four were sold. 20 of the transactions (69%) were for two Stirling city locations – Stirling Enterprise Park (10 transactions) and Springkerse Trade Park (10 transactions). This reflects strong demand for managed workspace and small / medium trade space. Springkerse Industrial Estate recorded six transactions in the time period, four sale and two lease, reflecting healthy demand for properties for sale as well as lease in this location.

3.2.27 Other urban transactions were recorded for Back O’Hill Industrial Estate (1 transaction), Bandeath Industrial Estate (1 transaction) and Colqhhoun Street (1 transaction).

3.2.28 No rural transactions were recorded for the time period. However, in June 2008, there were three industrial property transactions at Manor Business Park, Blairlogie, reflecting demand for industrial space out with Stirling city.

TABLE 3.7: INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS RECORDED FOR STIRLING COUNCIL AREA, JULY 2008-JUNE 2009

Address Description/Size sq m (sq ft) Transaction Details

Stirling Enterprise Park Stirling

Industrial

Managed Workspace (10 units) Floor areas from 24 sq m (253 sq ft) - 86 sq m (930 sq ft)

Properties Leased

Rents for 10 properties range from £56 per sq m (£5.20 per sq ft)- £61 per sq m (£5.64 per sq ft)

Springkerse Trade Park, Craig Leith Road, Stirling

Industrial

Warehouse/Storage (10 units) Floor Areas from 297 sq m (3,200 sq ft) - 1282 sq m (13,800 sq ft)

Properties Leased

Rents for 10 properties up to £91 per sq m (£8.50 per sq m) Various locations

Springkerse Industrial Estate, Stirling Industrial (6 units) Industrial/Retail Workshop 104 sq m (1,123 sq ft) Industrial Workshop 167 sq m (1,802 sq ft) Industrial Workshop 377 sq m (4,054 sq ft)

Industrial Workshops (3 units) 300 sq m (3,230 sq ft) per unit

Two properties Leased and four Sold

Property Leased

Rent £67 per sq m (£6.23 per sq ft)

Property Leased

Rent £70 per sq m (£6.49 per sq ft) Property Leased Price £894 per sq m (£83.17 per sq ft) Properties Sold Price £800 per sq m (£74.30 per sq ft) per unit

Colquhoun Street, Stirling Industrial/ Office Workshop 93 sq m (1,000 sq ft) Property Leased

Rent £56 per sq m (£5.00 per sq ft)

Back O’ Hill Industrial Estate, Stirling

Industrial Workshop 47 sq m (505 sq ft)

Property Leased

Rent £59 per sq m (£5.45 per sq ft )

Bandeath Industrial Estate, Throsk

Industrial Workshop 308 sq m (3,311 sq ft)

Property Assigned

Passing Rent £31 per sq m (£2.87 per sq ft)

Source: Scottish Property Network, 13th July 2009

3.2.29 Table 3.8 over shows achievable logistics and industrial rents for December 2007, before the onset of the economic downturn from mid-2008. The estimate for Stirling is high in comparison to the other locations listed, reflecting low levels of availability for industrial space at that time. The availability rate for industrial floorspace in Stirling in September 2007 was tight at 4% compared to a 10% average for Scotland.

3.2.30 Colliers CRE reported to Stirling Council in 2009 that trade counter operations in Springkerse Trade Park have achieved rentals of up to £91 per sq m (£8.50 per sq ft). However, it must be borne in mind that trade counter / quasi-retail premises can command higher rental than typical industrial premises.

3.2.31 In July 2009, there was only one remaining unit at the Trade Park, which was completed late 2008. This shows, that despite the recession, there is ongoing demand for trade counter / quasi-retail premises. The property agents for the

Trade Park indicate that they are looking at splitting the remaining unit, due to existing demand for smaller trade space. Given the current economic climate, transactions and interest shown in the Trade Park indicate ongoing demand for development of trade units similar in size and smaller (e.g. less than 836 sq m / 9,000 sq ft).

3.2.32 Industrial rental levels for Stirling city (excluding Springkerse Trade Park) for the July 2008 to June 2009 time period ranged from £54 to £70 per sq m (£5- £6.49 per sq ft). In June 2008 rental levels at Manor Business Park in the rural area ranged from £40 to £59 per sq m (£3.74-£5.48 per sq ft) and in July 2008 an industrial transaction for an assignation of lease at Bandeath Industrial Estate was recorded at £31 per sq m (£2.87 per sq ft).

3.2.33 The industrial rentals recorded for 2008/2009 are on the whole lower than the Colliers CRE estimate for December 2007. This indicates the worsening of the economic climate.

TABLE 3.8: ACHIEVABLE LOGISTIC AND INDUSTRIAL RENTS, DECEMBER 2007, ARROWS RELATE TO CHANGE ON PREVIOUS YEAR

Location Prime Rent per sq m

(per sq ft)

Secondary Rent per

sq m ( per sq ft) Land Values ha (ac)

Stirling £81 (£7.50)© £48 (£4.50)§¨ £370,370 (£150,000)© Edinburgh £75 (£7.00)© £59 (£5.50)© £925,926 (£375,000)© Glasgow £65 (6.00)§¨ £51 (£4.75)© £617,284 (£250,000)© Livingston £59 (£5.50)© £48 (£4.50)§¨ £493,827 (£200,000)© Fife £48 (£4.50)§¨ £38 (£3.50)© £246,914 (£100,000)© Aberdeen £73 (£6.75)© £51 (£4.75)§¨ £864,198 (£350,000)© Inverness £73 (£6.75)© £54 (£5.00)§¨ £740,741 (£300,000)© Dundee £57 (£5.25)© £43 (£4.00) §¨ £308,642 (£125,000)©

Source: Colliers CRE

Springkerse Analysis

3.2.34 Stirling Council recently updated a survey of Springkerse Industrial Park (October 2008), looking at the broad mix of uses and in particular highlighting the increasing number of retail / trade counter uses and raising the question of whether it can still be regarded as an industrial estate.

3.2.35 It would be useful in the future for Stirling Council to conduct a survey to map out employment density (e.g. jobs/hectare) at Springkerse and compare to other key employment locations, e.g. Castle Business Park.

3.2.36 The survey, which covered all business units within the Springkerse and Broadleys areas, was aimed at monitoring the variety of businesses in the Springkerse / Broadleys area. The results can be compared to a previous survey conducted in October / November 2004. Table 3.9 below shows the broad mix of activities recorded in relation to Use Classes Order:

TABLE 3.9: SPRINGKERSE/BROADLEYS ANALYSIS

Number of businesses Use class

Oct 2008 Oct/Nov 2004 Class 1 - Shops 28 12 Class 3 – Food and Drink 2 2 Class 4 - Business 167 185 Class 5 – General Industry 19 23 Class 6 – Distribution and Storage 13 7 Class 7 – Hotels and Hostels 1 1 Class 8 – Residential Institutions 1 1 Class 10 – Non Residential Institutions 1 2 Not Classified – Sui Generis 17 18

Vacant 55 15

Total 303 266

Source: Stirling Council Planning Department, 2008

3.2.37 Table 3.9 shows that the number of units in the Springkerse / Broadleys area increased from 266 in 2004 to 303 in 2008 (12%). The biggest increase came from Class 1 Shops (133% increase, 16 additional units) showing growing pressure on industrial land in Springkerse for retail use. There was a significant increase in the number of vacant units between 2004 and 2008 with an additional 40 vacant units in October 2008. This reflects the worsening economic situation during the course of 2008. A fair proportion of these vacancies are likely to have come from Class 4 business use, with a decline in number of units being used for Class 4 use of 18 units between 2004 and 2008.

3.2.38 However, it is important to note the change in nature of industrial businesses due to sectoral change. While there has been decline in traditional heavy manufacturing, Stirling has experienced growth in wholesaling and industrial uses that also require office space, e.g. data storage, contractors with in- house service operations, IT suppliers and support services. There is also an increasing blur between retail, trade and storage use requirements from individual industrial occupiers. Use isn’t always clear cut and natural demand from the industrial market is for mixed use units – e.g. industrial units used for a combination of manufacture, storage/distribution and trade/retail. For example, an upholsterer might need space for upholstery, storage, distribution and retail.

3.2.39 The data also show that while the bulk of units in the Springkerse area come under Class 4 Business use, the number of units in Class 4 use declined by 10% between 2004 and 2008. At the same time, jobs in office based sectors in Stirling increased substantially between 2004 and 2007 (most recent data), suggesting that demand for office space has been out-with the Springkerse industrial area. Stirling Council’s property search team report that demand for office premises is for central, well-located and easily accessible locations in the City centre or within specific office locations such as Stirling University Innovation Park.

3.2.40 In terms of pressure on, and loss of, business land, Burghmuir Industrial Estate was recently demolished and is the subject of a proposed redevelopment. This centrally located site is 1.8 hectare (4.5 acre) in size and previously contained around 5,760 sq m of industrial space, albeit of low

quality. No provision has been made to replace the industrial stock lost. However, Stirling Council’s Property Team suggest that this site is more likely to attract high demand for retail, trade and office use.

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