4.4 CRITERIOS PARA LA EVALUACIÓN DE LA PELIGROSIDAD
4.4.2 Consideraciones Finales
Retail Property Market
3.4.1 The contributions of retail and catering to GVA in Stirling are traditionally strong8. However recent reports from Ryden (2009)9 highlight that retail sales fell in the year to February 2009, with like for like retail sales falling by 0.9% in February. Despite price discounting, the drop in sales has been widespread across the retail sector.
3.4.2 Ryden (2009) reported that food retailers have remained the most active in the current market. This is typical in times of recession, where staple and value products achieve the best sales.
3.4.3 Ryden reported that there are a number of current site requirements across Scotland from food retail operators including Waitrose, Morrisons, Asda, Aldi and Lidl. A number of supermarket and superstore retailers have expressed interest in sites within the Stirling Council area.
3.4.4 Expenditure capacity for retail goods remains fairly high in Stirling and therefore capacity for retail floorspace also remains high in certain sectors. The Stirling Retail Capacity Study (Roger Tym & Partners, 2008) prepared for the Council to inform the Development Plan, identifies a need for around 3,300 sq m additional superstore (food) retail floorspace in the Stirling area, increasing to around 5,000 sq m net floorspace by 2018 assuming an improved market share of 60%. For comparison goods (non-food), a need for around 10,000 sq m additional retail floorspace is identified, increasing to around 22,000 sq m net floorspace by 2018 assuming an improved market share of 17.4%10.
3.4.5 It is important to note however that capacity is only one consideration in planning for new retail floorspace - both quantitative and qualitative deficiencies require to be considered. The above floorspace requirements are predicated on an increased population in line with the GROS projections, and increased market share to reduce expenditure leakage to elsewhere.
3.4.6 If a policy direction of ‘economic development jobs growth’ (see Chapter 4) is pursued, this will also support the continued policy approach of increasing the area’s market share to prevent expenditure leakage as outlined at 3.4.4 and help support the vitality and viability of existing centres. The economic development jobs growth scenario assumes that retail and non office and industrial based services (e.g. health, social work, education, personal services) will continue to make up 51% of the jobs market, so 51% of new jobs will require non office and industrial premises. Further retail space will therefore be required, but the more qualitative issues, such as the type of retail space to be provided and suitable locations, will require to be tackled in the new Local Development Plan for Stirling.
8
Source: ONS and SLIMS 9
Ryden – April/09: 64th Scottish Property Review.
10 This report was prepared early 2008 and is currently being updated (2009) to inform the new Stirling Local Development Plan.
3.4.7 Stirling is ranked 84 th
position in the UK as a shopping venue and 7th place in Scotland by VenueScore, with Stirling sitting above towns such as Perth, Falkirk and Ayr11. Stirling offers a mix of traditional retail outlets within city centre accommodation, retail warehouses and modern covered shopping centres. Total stock is around 145,000 sq m. It lies joint eighth in Scotland in terms of rental levels as shown in Table 3.19. The table indicates that in general, retail rental levels have remained static and in some cases, have decreased since April 2008.
TABLE 3.19: RETAIL RENTS, April 2009
Location Zone A rate per sq
ft
Increase/decrease since previous year
Glasgow £255 Nil
Edinburgh £220 Nil
Glasgow (Braehead)* £200 Nil Glasgow (Silverburn) £185 No information Edinbugh (Gyle) £175 Nil Aberdeen £162.50 Decrease East Kilbride £130 Nil
Stirling £115 Nil Inverness £115 Nil Livingston £107 Nil Dundee £105 Decrease Falkirk £88 Nil Dunfermline £78 Nil Perth £72.50 Decrease
Source: Ryden April/09: 64th Scottish Property Review (Ryden, 2009)
Notes: *Represents 80% OMV with turnover provisions
3.4.8 The chart below shows a current available supply of 13,798 sq m of floorspace compared to an eight-year annual average of 11,614 sq m (April 2001 – March 2009). The current take-up of 937 sq m per annum is well down on the eight-year take-up of 1,925 sq m per annum.
3.4.9 The drop in take-up over the last two years has most likely been a combination of the economic slowdown and current recession, and a number of local factors, perhaps lack of suitable supply. Changing retail patterns, such as increased competition from online sales, could also be having an impact.
11
Figure 3.20
Stirling
Retail Supply and Take-up
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Apr - Ma r 97/ 98 Apr - Ma r 98/ 99 Apr - Ma r 99/ 00 Apr - Ma r 00/ 01 Apr - Ma r 01/ 02 Apr - Ma r 02/ 03 Apr - Ma r 03/ 04 Apr - Ma r 04/ 05 Apr - Ma r 05/ 06 Apr - Ma r 06/ 07 Apr - Ma r 07/ 08 Apr - Ma r 08/ 09 sq m SUPPLY TAKE-UP
Source: Scottish Property Network
3.4.10 The main retail centres of Stirling City Centre and Springkerse Retail Park provide a variety of different retail floorplates. In Stirling, small retail units tend to dominate the City Centre, with almost 82% being less than 2,499 sq ft12. As a result it can be difficult for retailers to supply the number and range of goods that they would supply in larger stores elsewhere.
3.4.11 There is a need to reinforce Stirling city centre in the retail market to help stem any leakage to competing centres. However in order to be able to attract national multiple retailers the City Centre must have suitable accommodation available. Multiples increasingly require highly visible, large and well configured units. There is currently a shortage of such space available in the City Centre with the majority of floorplates falling below 5,000 sq ft and thereby being most suitable to accommodate smaller retailers. This may act as a deterrent to investors seeking to locate in Stirling and in some instances edge of town centre sites are becoming more attractive to investors for retail purposes. Retail consent (subject to agreement) at Drip Road, Raploch will provide additional non-food floorspace (albeit in an out of centre location) and current planning applications for Burghmuir and Station Road will make some contribution.
3.4.12 Due to increased competition from centres such as Dunfermline, Falkirk and Livingston, investment needs to continue to make Stirling’s retail offer more attractive. A recent example of investment carried out was the refurbishment of the Stirling Arcade, which has helped to improve its appeal to shoppers and visitors alike, with the aim of increasing footfall.
3.4.13 Table 3.21 over shows that in the period July 2008 to June 2009, Scottish Property Network recorded 13 retail property transactions for the Stirling Council area. This compares with 27 retail transactions recorded for the previous year. The lower figure recorded for the most recent year was due to the recession and difficult market conditions.
3.4.14 Out of the 13 retail transactions recorded for the July 2008 to June 2009 time period, seven properties were leased, one was sub-leased and five were sold. The majority of transactions were for city centre locations (7 transactions – 54%). Two transactions were for other Stirling locations (Cambusbarron and Burghmuir) and three were for out with Stirling, including two rural locations (Callander and Cowie).
3.4.15 Most of the transactions were for traditional retail units (9 transactions – 69%). Two transactions were for modern retail units and two were for high street stores.
3.4.16 Of the 13 transactions, one retail transaction in Stirling is intended for a dental surgery (Class 2 office) and one was an investment sale.
TABLE 3. 21: RETAIL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS RECORDED FOR STIRLING COUNCIL AREA, JULY 2008 - JUNE 2009
Address Description/Size sq m (sq ft) Transaction Details
Birkhill Road, Cambusbarron, Stirling
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit Floor Area undisclosed
Property Sold Price £270,000 Maxwell Place,
Stirling
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 20 sq m (220 sq ft)
Property Sold
Price £1,750 per sq m (£159 per sq ft) Broad Street,
Stirling
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 24 sq m (255 sq ft)
Property Leased
Rent £137.50 per sq m (£12.94 per sq ft)
King Street, Stirling
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 44 sq m (473 sq ft) Property Leased Rent undisclosed Barnton Street, Stirling Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 45 sq m (480 sq ft)
Property Leased
Rent £231 per sq m (£21.65 per sq ft) Main Street,
Callander
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 90 sq m (964 sq ft)
Property Leased
Rent £144 per sq m (£13.49 per sq ft) Main Street,
Cowie
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 92 sq m (990 sq ft)
Property Sold
Price £551 per sq m (£51.20 per sq ft) Fountain Road,
Bridge of Allan
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 138 sq m (1,489 sq ft)
Property Sold
Price £3,043 per sq m (£282 per sq ft) Murray Place,
Stirling
Retail
Traditional Shop Unit
Floor Area 146 sq m (1,567 sq ft)
Property Leased
Rent £240 per sq m (£22.34 per sq ft) Murray Place,
Stirling
Retail
High Street Store
Floor Area 208 sq m (2,240 sq ft)
Property Sub Leased Rent undisclosed Murray Place,
Stirling
Retail
High Street Store
Floor Area 71 sq m (764 sq ft)
Property Leased
Rent £232 per sq m (£21.59 per sq ft) Burghmuir Road,
Stirling
Retail Modern Shop
Floor Area 325 sq m (3,500 sq ft)
Property Leased. Dental Surgery proposed.
Rent £138 per sq m (£12.85 per sq ft) Pitt Terrace,
Stirling
Retail Modern Shop
Floor Area 1,445 sq m (15,556 sq ft)
Property Sold (Investment Sale) Price undisclosed
3.4.17 Table 3.22 over demonstrates that there are currently 17 retailers seeking representation, or different premises, i.e. relocation to larger or smaller premises, in Stirling.
TABLE 3.22: STIRLING RETAIL REQUIREMENTS, 1ST JULY 2009
Location Size Retailer
Stirling 2,000-2,400 sq ft Vets4Pets Ltd Stirling 3,000-6,000 sq ft 99p Stores Ltd Stirling 3,500-8,000 sq ft Poundland Ltd Stirling 2,250-3,500 sq ft Brighthouse
Stirling 700-1,800 sq ft Starbucks Coffee Company (UK) Ltd Stirling 15,000-40,000 sq ft T K Maxx
Stirling 2,000-2,200 sq ft McDonalds Restaurants Limited Stirling 600-1,000 sq ft Age Concern England
Stirling 2,500-4,000 sq ft Pizza Express/ASK/Zizzi
Stirling 3,000-6,000 sq ft British Heart Foundaiton Furniture & Electrical
Stirling 15,000-20,000 sq ft Liquid
Stirling 650-1,000 sq ft Save The Children Fund Stirling 200-500 sq ft Fuel Juice Bars
Stirling 3,000-5,000 sq ft Deichmann Shoes Stirling 5,000-8,000 sq ft Optical Express Stirling 700-1,500 sq ft Phase Eight Stirling 25,000-150,000 sq ft TJ Hughes Ltd
Source: Scottish Property Network, 1st July 2009
3.4.18 The largest requirements are for TJ Hughes and TK Maxx seeking 2,323 to 13,935 sq m (25,000 – 150,000 sq ft), and 1,394 to 3,716 sq m (15,000 – 40,000 sq ft) respectively. Most are seeking smaller units, e.g. less than 743 sq m (8,000 sq ft).
3.4.19 There does not appear to be any designer or niche retailers targeting Stirling at present – it is mainly traditional high street and retail park occupiers. 3.4.20 In comparison to other locations, Stirling’s retail rental level (£115 per sq ft) is
below Glasgow (£255 per sq ft), Edinburgh (£220 per sq ft), Aberdeen (£162.50 per sq ft) and East Kilbride (£130 per sq ft), the same as Inverness (£115 per sq ft), and ahead of Livingston (£107 per sq ft), Dundee (£105 per sq ft), Falkirk (£88 per sq ft), Dunfermline (£78 per sq ft) and Perth (£72.50 per sq ft).
Tourism and Commercial Leisure Property Market
3.4.21 Tourism and commercial leisure continues to be important to the economy of Stirling with around 4.3 million visitors generating some £406 million each year13.
3.4.22 With a range of renowned visitor attractions including Stirling Castle, the Old Town, Wallace Monument and Bannockburn Heritage Centre, partners in the area should continue to invest in infrastructure and signage improving the offer.
13
3.4.23 The recently completed Peak Sports Village provides a range of first class sporting facilities complementing those at nearby Stirling University.
3.4.24 Investment is planned / has recently been undertaken for a number of existing hotel and leisure facilities in the area including Dunblane Hydro and Forest Hills, Aberfoyle and the Former Rainbow Slides, Stirling. Change of use is also proposed for existing city centre offices at Spittal Street and King Street, which could result in further ‘speciality’ hotel accommodation.
3.4.25 A site in central Stirling at Dumbarton Road currently has an application pending for a new hotel situated close to Stirling’s main retail centre, the Thistles.
3.4.26 In addition a number of proposed mixed-use developments include hotel and / or leisure elements including Forthside (hotel), Burghmuir (hotel and leisure), Station Square (hotel), Pirnhall (leisure), Crookbridge (hotel & leisure), Corbiewood (hotel), Kildean (hotel/leisure) and Craigforth (hotels & leisure). 3.4.27 Tourism is critically important to Stirling’s economy, particularly in the rural
area. It is necessary to plan for future tourism related growth, e.g. requirements for additional/improved hotels, restaurants, bars and leisure facilities. Development of commercial cultural and leisure facilities is also required to service future population growth and to achieve a high level of quality of life in the future.
3.4.28 There is currently a data gap on demand, take-up and supply of tourism, cultural and commercial leisure business space. Stirling Council should aim to fill this gap by conducting a review of the tourism, culture and commercial leisure industry business space requirements. The review should map out additional space required to meet Stirling’s tourism, cultural and leisure objectives.
3.4.29 Future revisions of the Business Space Strategy should analyse business space required for tourism, cultural and commercial leisure activities using the results of the review, and provide recommendation on how much land is required to provide additional space for development.