BREVE APROXIMACIÓN ASPECTOS METODOLÓGICOS

Based on the consumer decision-making process model and alternative selection process, key factors that may affect AFV adoption along the process of consumer choices and the dynamics around these key factors are discussed in this section. Since the research model is only interested in the consumers’ decision-making process of vehicle powertrain selection, the last two stages in EBM model, the outcome step after purchasing is not of great importance to the construction of dynamic hypotheses of the research model. Therefore, only first four stages in consumer decision-making process up to the purchase step are selected as the theoretical foundation to the dynamic model.

Figure 4-3 Key variables identified in the adoption process

The key variables in each step of consumer vehicle powertrain selection process are presented in Figure 4-3. In the consumer choice process, it starts with consumers feeling familiar with and being fond of the AFV technologies during the stages of “Need Recognition” and “Information Search”, so that vehicle models with alternative fuel powertrains can go into the awareness set. Advertising effect and the word of mouth effect are the two main ways to increase consumer awareness. After entering the awareness set, the AFV model has to enter the evoked set, where consumers evaluate all vehicle models (Figure 4-2). In order to enter this set, vehicles in alternative powertrains have to be available and preferably in a variety of model ranges to meet the requirements of consumers in different market segmentations. Finally, the AFV has to be superior to all other alternative vehicle models in the evaluation phase of all models in the evoked set. In this phase, the performance of the AFV model and preferences and opinions of the individual are the most determining factors.

Purchase Decision Alternative Evaluation

• AFV Model Availability and Variety

• Vehicle Evaluation

o Vehicle Performance

o Consumer Preferences and

Opinions

• Consumer Awareness of AFV

o Consumer Familiarity and Affinity

Information Search Need Recognition

Recall from Chapter 2 Section 2.3, factors that are often regarded as influential to consumer AFV adoption decisions in the literature are divided into subjective and situational. Similarly, key variables identified through the theoretical foundation are in line with the findings from the literature. Key variables such as consumer awareness of AFVs and consumer preferences towards different vehicle attributes are subjective and intangible to measure. Key variables like AFV model availability and variety, and various vehicle attributes related to vehicle performance are situational and relatively tangible to measure. In the next sections, the dynamic structure of these key variables will be explained.

4.2.1 Consumer awareness

Consumer awareness, specifically consumers’ familiarity and affinity of AFVs is the first necessary condition a successful AFV adoption requires in the individual adoption process. After adding the dimension of time and social system, consumer familiarity and affinity become dynamic and accumulative. There are two main ways to accumulate consumer familiarity: through advertisement and marketing, and through word of mouth effect. Advertising and marketing is the initiating force to start the diffusion process (Bass, 1969). After the minority innovators’ acceptance of the innovation, word of mouth effect becomes the dominant force for consumer familiarity accumulation. The accumulation of consumer familiarity depends on how many people have known about the technology and how fast a new idea can spread within the network circles of consumers. This reinforced relationship between AFV adoption and consumer familiarity is the first key dynamic structure in this research (see Figure 4-4).

Figure 4-4 Consumer familiarity and AFV adoption

Consumer familiarity AFV market share AFV Social exposure

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The familiarity of consumers is an intangible variable that is difficult to quantify its exact value and track its dynamic changes. In Chapter 5, consumer familiarity will be investigated using a nation-wide survey and the accumulation of consumer familiarity will be simulated within the system dynamics model.

4.2.2 AFV model availability and variety

A vehicle market comprises a variety of vehicle models and is divided into many market segments based on vehicle body styles, functionalities, and purchase price etc. In order to enter the evoked sets of consumers in all market segments, it is necessary for alternative fuel technologies to have a variety of vehicle models that caters for various consumer groups. To launch vehicle models in different powertrains requires manufacturers’ time and capital investment, so the popularity of the powertrain in some extent determines how many vehicle models the manufacturers are willing to produce. This is another reinforced relationship between AFV market share and a key variable in the diffusion process (see Figure 4-5). In the subsequent data observation section, the historical trends of vehicle model variety will be investigated.

Figure 4-5 Vehicle model variety and AFV adoption

4.2.3 Vehicle model evaluation

Vehicle model evaluation is based on two categories of variables: vehicle performance and consumer preferences. Vehicle performance is defined by the value of various vehicle attributes that vehicle consumers consider when they make the purchase decision. In the context of AFV adoption, the vehicle attributes that can differentiate the performances of AFVs from petrol vehicles are the determining variables for whether AFVs are finally

AFV model variety Possibility of AFV entering evoked sets AFV market share

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selected in the evaluation step. Some of the commonly considered vehicle attributes are: attributes that are related to the cost of vehicle ownership such as vehicle purchase price, vehicle operating cost, and registration tax; attributes that defines the technical performances of the car such as vehicle fuel efficiency, GHG emissions, and vehicle driving range; and attributes/factors that maximise the drivers’ experience such as easy access to refuel facilities, shorter waiting time on vehicle acquisition , and access to bus lanes (International Energy Agency, 2017).

These vehicle attributes can change their values during the diffusion process. In general, with the increase in AFV popularity, performance will be improved because manufacturers become more willing to invest in AFV technologies research and development. The improvement of AFV performance will in response increase the competitiveness of the powertrains and help with boosting up the AFV market shares (see Figure 4-6). In the subsequent Section, the historical changes of AFV performance are presented.

Figure 4-6 Vehicle performance and AFV adoption

Consumer preferences and opinions regarding these vehicle attributes determines how they evaluate alternative vehicle models in their evoked sets. However, such variables are intangible and not observable through available marketing data. Later in Chapter 5, the consumer preferences and opinions and their dynamics will be investigated.

Section 4.1 and 4.2 explored the theoretical foundation of consumer choices in vehicle powertrains and identified key variables within the AFV adoption process. The hypotheses dynamic structures of these variables were also presented (Figure 4-4 through

AFV performance Possibility of AFV entering evoked sets AFV market share

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Figure 4-6). In the next section, historical trends of these key variables will be observed and discussed.