Carnaval 2017

macroeconomic effects

6.1 Synthesis of ex-ante evaluation results of the draft Regional Operational Programme for the Lower Silesia Voivodship for 2007-2013

The Ministry for Regional Development commissioned, through a public procurement process, the consulting company WYG International sp. z o.o. to prepare an ex-ante evaluation of the draft ROP (19 June 2006 version). The full ex-ante evaluation report is available at: www.rpo.dolnyslask.pl (in “ex-ante evaluation” tab). The evaluation consists of 5 research tasks, results of which are presented in the Programme in the following way:

Task 1: Verification of the socio-economic analysis

The evaluator stressed the adequacy of chosen diagnostic fields and found the analysis itself as presenting the up-to-date situation of the region. He also noted that most of the used diagnostic fields included main trends. Moreover, he very highly evaluated the utilitarian value of the diagnostic part and the degree of its cohesion and completeness.

Still, certain shortcomings were also identified like chapter titles inadequate to their content, incompleteness and little analytical insight. In response to these remarks changes were introduced and more emphasis was put on the socio-economic potential of the region. Some editorial corrections were made as well. Nevertheless, the recommended wider extrapolation of phenomena in question was not included. Having made additional analyses it was concluded that the existing range of inference about development trends is sufficient for purposes of the projection part and complies with the Ministry of Regional Development guidelines.

Task 2: Evaluation of internal cohesion of the programme

The transparency and completeness of the projection part of the Programme was highly evaluated. It was pointed out that priorities form a coherent and complete picture in the light of the developmental needs identified in the diagnostic part. Equally highly evaluated was the cohesion of the main objective with detailed objectives and priorities as well as the deep rooting of the axiological layer of the Programme in the values represented by the European Community. Nevertheless, the evaluator was critical about chosen priority indicators and their unrealistic target values when confronted with funds allocated for the implementation of the Programme. In response to this remark, most of the indicators were reformulated and the probability of achieving target values were re-examined.

In line with recommendations, the number of priorities was reduced, the Programme objectives were reviewed for their compliance with 5 desired outcomes (SMART), a table with an indicative breakdown of funds into categories of intervention was added, the description of the demarcation and coordination of actions on the regional level was moved to an annex. Moreover, new arguments were added to the rationale behind the implementation of the ROP priority “Health”. The analysis was extended to address the issues of “grey area” employment and economic migration after Poland’s accession to the EU. Unfortunately, the scale of these problems was not presented due to the lack of statistical data.

The remark concerning the inclusion of a rationale for the use of cross-financing was not complied with. In this respect only the range of use of this instrument, as required by the Community law, was indicated. The suggestion to add a detailed indicative financial table, broken into priorities, years and funding sources, was also dismissed, as it is not required by the Community law.

Task 3: Evaluation of the external cohesion of the Programme

A high level of cohesion of the Programme with the EU, national and regional programmes with respect to values, strategic objectives and diagnosis was noted. No discrepancies between the ROP and any of the analysed programmes were found. The text of the diagnosis and the description of priorities includes references to regional documents.

Task 4: Evaluation of the result and impact

The evaluator criticised the Programme monitoring system with respect to the chosen result and impact indicators. The presented set of indicators was evaluated incomplete in view of the European Commission requirements. Yet it must be noted that relevant guidelines of the European Commission and the Ministry of Regional Development were delivered to the Managing Authority only after the ROP had been submitted for tentative evaluation. In response to the shortcomings noted, the number and definitions of the Programme indicators were verified with particular emphasis placed on their rationale, internal cohesion and completeness. The indicators required by the European Commission as well as the ones developed in collaboration with the Coordinating Authority were added. In addition, the target values of indicators were reviewed based on detailed cost-effectiveness analyses (for material quantities) and an analysis done using the HERMIN model (for macroeconomic quantities). The remarks not compliant with the guidelines and types of indicators proposed by the Ministry of Regional Development were not taken into account.

Task 5: Evaluation of the implementation system

The way the management system was presented in the ROP was criticised. According to evaluators, unclear and complicated descriptions of the respective competences of particular institutions do not allow to verify the feasibility, efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed solutions. The very structure of the management was evaluated non-homogenous. According to the evaluators, the descriptions of authorities and processes were not clearly and functionally separated. In response to the above-mentioned remarks, the description of the management system was, in line with the recommendations of ROPs Coordinating Authority, changed to the standard description of the management and implementation system developed by the Ministry of Regional Development for all ROPs.

6.2 Results of macro-economic evaluations

The evaluation of the impact of the programme implementation on the voivodship economy was carried out using two macro-economic models: HERMIN and MaMoR2. Both models assumed the specification of changes in macroeconomic quantities in the baseline scenario (i.e. with no inflow of the Structural Funds), and, next, the specification of the impact of the Structural Funds utilisation on the changes in these values. It must be emphasised that the values of the macroeconomic indicators presented below apply exclusively to the implementation of the Regional Operational Programme. They do not take into account other NSRF funds, which are potentially available for the region.

Several analyses of the ROP impact on the region's economy were carried out using the HERMIN model. The research was conducted by Wrocław Agency of Regional Development S.A. The evaluations concerned several draft versions of the Programme and consisted in comparing the impact of the several proposed fund allocation options on particular Programme priorities. In total, eight fund allocation options were analysed. The analysis, carried out using the HERMIN model on the draft version of the ROP approved by the Lower Silesian Voivodship Board on 19 June 2006, which was subject to an ex-ante evaluation, indicated that the implementation of the Programme should result in 2013 in a 1.79% rise in GDP relative to the baseline scenario. The impact of the Programme on the rise of

employment in 2013 is estimated to approximately 7,030 persons, which should contribute to a decline in unemployment by 0.55%. The implementation of the ROP should lead to a rise of investments in 2013 by 4.76%”. The above results were included in Report 2 of 28 July 2006. "An evaluation of the macro-economic effect of the Regional Operational Programme for the years 2007-2013 on the economy of the Lower Silesia Voivodship by use of the HERMIN model’.

The achieved macro-economic effect was also evaluated using the MaMoR2 model, which is a computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The research was carried out by the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics in November 2006.

The analyses suggest that the implementation of the Regional Operational Programme should contribute to achieving in 2015 a 1.99% rise in GDP relative to the baseline scenario. Moreover, by 2015, due to the programme implementation, the employment is expected to rise by 4.9 thousands persons, i.e. by 0.68%, and remuneration by 2.22%. It is projected that the rise in investments relative to the baseline scenario will be the highest in 2013 and will amount to 9.44%.

The models used differed in methodological assumptions, thus the results are not uniform, yet in most cases similar. The HERMIN model predicts that the year 2013 sees the maximum impact of the implementation of the Programme on the voivodship economy, while according to the MaMoR2 model, the culmination of the macroeconomic effect will appear in 2015 (with the exception of the level of investments, for which 2013 is expected to see the maximum impact of the programme). Full versions of the evaluations of the macroeconomic effect of the Programme are available at www.rpo.dolnyslask.pl in the “ex-ante evaluation” tab.

VII. Results of the ROP’s Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for the Lower