CAUSACION, DETERMINACION Y PAGO DE CONTRIBUCIONES Y APROVECHAMIENTOS Objetivo

As was argued near the beginning of this chapter, the aim of cross-national research is to identify the causal connections underpinning observed relationships among variables and it is therefore necessary to concern ourselves with identifying the factors responsible for deviations from similar patterns of political behaviour. In achieving this we can come closer to understanding the factors affecting political behaviour most fundamentally. To that end the nations chosen for cross-national comparison are of secondary importance. Much more important are the variables within each nation chosen for comparison. And of more importance still are the causal determinants of those variables and their interrelationships. So what is needed is some broad framework within which to assess the causes of cross-national variations in political behaviour, a framework which distinguishes and highlights the relevant "intervening" macro variables that impinge on political behaviour at the micro level.

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Figure 2.1

A Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Political Behaviour

Political culture structure Social considerations Geographical political system Rules of the political system Actors in the Political attitudes (individual) Political behaviour (individual)

NOT E : Arrows show direction of causation. Broken lines indicate weaker connections than unbroken lines. Not all conceivable connections are depicted.

Figure 2.1 presents a conceptual scheme which attempts to provide such a general framework. It is, intentionally, modest and uncluttered. Were it to describe more faithfully the complexity of the variables it contains and their interrelationships a mass of detail would be necessary. It does not, for example, attempt to depict the mechanisms by which variables influence each other. In its broad conception the "model" will guide the progress of the thesis and aid both in pulling together the various strands at the end and in facilitating the making of general conclusions from the specific findings in the body of the work. It is not intended as a rigid framework into which each part of the analysis is tightly woven but rather as a background structure to be borne in mind when explanations are being sought for the findings that emerge. The attraction of the model is, in part, that it serves as a point of departure from the macro level, affects research strategy at the micro level and ultimately draws us back to consider the implications for the macro-level elements of the total system, in accordance with Rokkan’s

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recommendations. By looking at how the macro-level variables influence micro-level behaviour from a cross-national perspective it becomes possible to make statements about which aspects of a political system have the greatest influence in shaping political behaviour.

The scheme proposed in Figure 2.1 requires some elaboration. Each of the five system-level elements in the model actually consists of a set of separate component variables (still at the system-level)

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which together make up that "area" of the model. Social structure and

^Also in this connection, Inglehart, "Changing Paradigms in Comparative Political Behavior", has recently argued for the integration of macro-level and micro-level analysis in the development of comparative research.

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Some aspects of the substance and evolution of the system-level elements in Australia and New Zealand were elaborated in Chapter One and others will be discussed at appropriate junctures as the thesis unfolds.

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political culture are presented here as macro variables although they can be broken down into micro-level components as well. Geographical considerations require little comment except to say that they are properly viewed as background factors, as their place on the diagram indicates. They would not normally have direct effects on political behaviour at the micro level and do not have the dynamic qualities of the major socio-political elements. In fact, over time the influence of geographical considerations probably declines along with developments such as improved mass communications media. Social structure is broadly defined so as to include demographic as well as strictly sociological characteristics. The connections between social structure and other elements of the model are mediated through "social culture". The "actors in the political system" include the party system and the politicians within it as well as other elites who wield, or have the potential to wield, political power. "Rules of the political system" refer to the basic constitutional framework through which a system operates (electoral laws, for example) and not day to day laws passed under ordinary legislative processes. Political culture is conceived of as being in a position between the last three mentioned factors and the individual-level variables, and often

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modifies the influence of the former on the latter. However, while it may be associated more directly with political attitudes and behaviour than some of the other macro components, on the other hand the significance of political culture is reduced because it owes its own character in large part to those prior variables. As discussed in

"*Almond and Verba, The Civic Culture, p. 33, saw political culture as "the connecting link between micro- and macropolitics". In the present study, however, political behaviour (and to some extent political culture) is seen as being in the main the dependent factor to be explained which is more or less the reverse of the Almond and Verba position.

Chapter One, over time political culture may develop an independent status which can lead it, in turn, to influence changes in those other elements. Nor is it improbable that each of the other variables can and do influence political attitudes and behaviour directly. In turn the micro-level factors could, over time, exert some influence on the system-level elements.

All the connections in the model are mediated by a set of intervening variables, acknowledging the time dimension on which the model sits, which can be termed "historical considerations". These include both long-term and short-term developments and events such as patterns of settlement, struggles for political power, external (international) forces on development, economic conditions (and changes therein) and so on. Although these factors may on occasions directly influence patterns of political behaviour, they are better seen, particularly from a long-term perspective, as affecting individual-level political behaviour through the influence they have on the central system-level variables. For the most part they should not be credited with direct causal status but viewed as secondary factors creating a specific environment for the interaction of the major socio-political variables which are the crucial determinants of political behaviour. Historical developments, in short, constitute a contextual element and are not part of the socio-political superstructure.

The Rokkan typology and the scheme presented here can be used in combination for guiding the research procedures in this study. They are, in a sense, complementary. Rokkan's typology provides a framework for guiding the strategy of analysis that will be pursued.

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The scheme shown in Figure 2.1 provides, albeit loosely, a conceptual framework which aids in deciding what questions to ask, suggesting assumptions for analysis, evaluating the results of analysis and for synthesizing the overall findings in order to produce general conclusions in comparative perspective. From Rokkan comes the comparative method; from this section comes a comparative analytic framework. The diagram in Figure 2.1 shows clearly the macro-micro focal direction of the research. The various macro elements can be conceptualized and operationalized at different levels of the political system. Although in places analysis is conducted with respect to various levels of the system, ultimately we are concerned with explanations of variations in political behaviour at the national level.