are listed in Appendix 6 (see page 225).
The basic data presented in Table 8.1 are indicative for the region as a whole.
A total of 164 million ha, or 8% of the total land area of 2,127 million ha in 2002, were under annual cultivation or permanent crops (see Glossary). If pasture land, at 1,119 million ha, or 53% of the total land area, is regarded as potential arable land, some 13% (164 million ha) of the potentially total arable land (1,119 + 164 = 1,283 million ha) would have been under annual cultivation in 2002.
It would appear that the region is well endowed with pasture land and that it ought to be possible to increase the agri-cultural land in cultivation at its expense.
The agro-ecological zones are looked at in this context.
Agro-ecological zones in AFR with their vegetation and principal agricultural pro-duction are indicated in Table 8.2. This is
stated in broad terms only and should not be regarded as complete. The zones (Fig-ure 8.2) are differentiated by the amount
TABLE 8.2. Agro-ecological zones of AFR. a
Zone
Annual rainfall mm
Growing period length in months
Vegetation and principal agricultural production
Arid tropical less than 300
2.5 Sparse grassland - Nomadic or transhumant pastoral-ism (sheep, goats, camels) - Date palm.
Semi-arid tropics 300-1000 2.5 to 4.5 Savannah (‘Sahel’ and ‘Sudan’ zones of West Africa) - Cereal crops (millet, sorghum) pulses, groundnuts. Pas-toralism (sheep, goats, cattle). Many indigenous tree crops.
Sub-humid tropical uplands
1000-1500
4.5 to 8 Moist savannah, dry woodland (‘Guinea savannah’ in West Africa, ‘Miambo’ woodland in eastern and south-ern Africa). - Cereals (millet, sorghum, maize), pulses, groundnuts, cotton, root crops (yams, cassava), small livestock (goats, pigs). Coconut, cashew, and indige-nous tree crops.
Humid lowlands more than 1500
more than 8
Forest - Food crops (roots, tubers and plantains). Tree crops (cocoa, oil palm, rubber).
Tropical and sub-tropical highlands
variable variable Forest - Tea, coffee, temperate fruit, vegetables, cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat), roots (potatoes, sweet pota-toes), bananas, livestock (cattle, goats, sheep).
a. From H. Bernstein, B. Crow, H. Johnson, Rural Livelihoods, Crises and Responses, Table 8.1, (part) page 167. © 1992, The Open University. Reprinted with permission..
Sub-Saharan Africa
of rainfall received, which, in turn affects the lengths of the growing season. As rainfall tends to decrease along some con-tinuous line from the rainforest near the
equator to the desert areas of the tropics of Cancer (Sahara) and Capricorn (Kalahari and Namibia) the zone boundaries are arbitrary.
They are helpful when considering farm-ing systems in the context of rainfall and lengths of growing seasons. In general, rainfall intensity and distribution are more important to the farmer than total rainfall data. The rainfall pattern, that is its
distri-bution and intensity, is seasonal and uncertain in the semi-arid tropics and sub-humid tropical uplands. This uncertainty limits agricultural productivity in these areas. Farmers have to concentrate their activity into short periods of considerable
FIGURE 8.2. Agro-ecological zones in Sub-Saharan Africa. From H. Bernstein, B. Crow, H.
Johnson, Rural Livelihoods, Crises and Responses, Figure 8.1, (part) page 168. © 1992, The Open University. Used with permission.
Chapter 8 Monitoring Intervention Strategies in Farming Systems
activity, with a relatively high demand for labour, often leading to shortages in its supply. In these areas the family subsist-ence household (see Figure 2.2 on page 21) has difficulty in competing with the family enterprise farm in the labour market. This uncertainty places these farmers in a high risk situation of losing their crops in these regions of uncertain rainfall. Local variations in the moisture regime, as established by the varying rain-fall pattern are understood by these farm-ers and exploited as far as feasible.
Variations are relevant. Examples (given by Bernstein et al., 1992, p. 169) are those in:
• Altitude
The highland areas of Ethiopia, Rwanda and Burundi and to an extent in Kenya and Tanzania, record higher rainfall and lower temperatures than the adjacent lowlands. This creates a longer growing period for crops and pasture and a greater diversity of crop choice in the sub-humid and semi-arid areas.
• Relief
As water will accumulate in swamps and river flood-plains, the effect of rainfall is strongly influenced by relief. Such moisture reservoirs can be used for the production of crops once the rainy season has come to an end.
• Soil type
The so-called ‘heavy’ soils have a higher moisture holding capacity than sandy soils, due to their relatively smaller particle size (clay content).
Such soils generally occur more fre-quently in low lying areas, reinforcing the relief effect referred to above.
From this it follows that local knowl-edge of these variations, which determine
a mosaic of soil patterns, varying over rel-atively short distances, is of considerable importance if successful farming is to take place. Such local knowledge is fundamen-tal to farming strategies, which can vary widely. Examples of such ecological management in African farming, thereby minimizing the risk of sometimes drastic variations in rainfall patterns, are given by Bernstein et al., 1992, pp.166-169, 170, 171.
In West Africa some 70% of the total population live in the moist sub-humid and humid zones (see Figure 8.2 on page 139). In contrast in East and South-ern Africa this amounts to about half of the total population (Hall et al., 2001, p.
29). In the latter areas a greater percentage of the population, potentially, is subjected to droughts than is the case in sub-humid and humid regions of West Africa.
The people involved in agricultural activities (in 2000 about 67% of the total population) accounted for some 20% of total GDP of the region. Hall et al., 2001, p. 30 report that this share of GDP is declining in more than one third of the regional countries, examples being Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Eritrea, Lesotho, Ghana, Mauritania, Mozambique and Uganda. Increases occurred in Benin, Central African Republic, Cameroon, the Congo Republic, Mali, Niger, Namibia, Rwanda, Togo and Zimbabwe. In West Africa, expansion of the oil industry con-tributed to the decline over the last 30 years. In Southern Africa expansion of non-agricultural sectors contributed to this decline (Hall et al., 2001, p. 30).
The vulnerable situation under which people in AFR live with respect to gross national income on the basis of PPP$ per capita is shown in Appendix 1 (see page 218).
Sub-Saharan Africa
TABLE 8.3. Major farming systems of Sub-Saharan Africa. a
Farming
region Principal livelihoods
Prevalence of poverty Irrigated 1 2 Rice, cotton, vegetables, rainfed crops,
cat-tle, poultry
Limited
Tree crops 3 6 Cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, yams, maize, off-farm work
Limited to moderate
Forest based 11 7 Cassava, maize, beans, coco-yams Extensive
Rice-tree crops
1 2 Rice, banana, coffee, maize, cassava, leg-umes, livestock, poultry, off-farm work
Moderate
Highland perennials
1 8 Banana, plantain, enset, coffee, cassava, sweet potato, beans, cereals, livestock, poul-try, off-farm work.
Extensive
Highland temperate mixed
2 7 Wheat, barley, tef, peas, lentils, broadbeans, rape, potatoes, sheep, goats, livestock, poul-try, off-farm work
Moderate-extensive
Root crops 11 11 Yams, cassava, legumes, off-farm work
Limited-mod-erate Cereal-root
crop mixed
13 15 Maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, yams, leg-umes, cattle
Limited
Maize mixed
10 15 Maize, tobacco, cotton, cattle, goats, poul-try, off-farm work
Moderate
Large com-mercial and smallholder
5 4 Maize, pulses, sunflower, cattle, sheep, goats, remittances
Moderate
Agro-pasto-ral millet/
sorghum
8 4 Sorghum, pearl, millet, pulses, sesame, cat-tle, sheep, goats, poultry, off-farm work
Extensive
Pastoral 14 7 Cattle, camels, sheep, goats, remittances Extensive
Sparse agri-culture (arid)
17 1 Irrigated maize, vegetables, date palms, cat-tle, off-farm work
Extensive
Coastal arti-sanal fishing
2 3 Marine fish, coconuts, cashew, banana, yams, fruit, goats, poultry, off-farm work
Moderate
Urban based
little 3 Fruit, vegetables, dairy, cattle, goats, poul-try, off-farm work
Moderate
a. Source: From Hall, M. (Principal Editor), Dixon, J., Gulliver, A., Gibbon, D., (2001), Farming Systems and Poverty, Improving Farmers’ Livelihoods in a Changing World. FAO and World Bank, Rome and Washington p. 34. © 2001 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Used with permission.
Chapter 8 Monitoring Intervention Strategies in Farming Systems
8.3.2 Farming systems in AFR Hall et al., 2001, p. 34 identify fifteen farming systems, with their main charac-teristics and prevalence of poverty for this region (see Table 8.3). Due to their poten-tial for poverty reduction and agricultural growth - main factors of importance if food security is to be achieved - they selected the following five systems:
• Maize mixed system
• Tree crop system
• Irrigated system
• Cereal-root crop mixed system
• Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum system Prior to referring to these in some detail (guided by Hall et al., 2001), it is neces-sary to look at the region-wide trends in AFR.
Region-wide trends in AFR
• Population hunger and poverty Under the prevailing conditions of so much poverty (see Appendix 1), the projected increase in population by 78% in the next thirty years (Hall et al., 2001, p. 41) gives rise to concern.
The urban population now reported as standing at 33%, is anticipated to rise to 50% of the overall total by 2030, notwithstanding economic contrac-tion in the region.
The HIV/AIDS pandemic is reducing the labour force in the prime working age group, but the net growth in popu-lation continues. The loss of produc-tive labour and rises in medical and orphan care costs, result in a cost to the economy, which the region is una-ble to meet. Hall et al., 2001, p. 42 report that by 2001 the most affected farming systems had been the high-land perennial and the maize mixed
systems, whilst the large-scale and commercial and smallholder system also had lost much of its skilled super-visory labour force. In the highland perennial system neglect of banana and coffee was due partly to HIV/
AIDS related labour shortages. In addition to this Hall reports that this disease is affecting government staff and private agricultural service pro-viders resulting in a very high staff turnover and loss of investment and time in capacity building.
During the final three decades of the 20th century the number of undernour-ished people in the region increased to an estimated 180 million people by 1995-97 (Hall et al., 2001, p. 42). It was reported that the average daily food supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa for human consumption by 1997-99 contained 2,195 calories per person, compared with 2,681 calories per per-son in the developing countries as a whole.
This compares with 3,380 calories per day per person in the industrialized countries. For the period 2000-02 some 30% of the population (about 210 million people) of the region was undernourished [Human Development Report, 2005, Table 7, page 243 (UNDP)]. Although the energy intake is projected to increase by 18% by 2030, about 165 million people will still be undernourished.
It is of concern that the region has a higher proportion of people living in dollar poverty than any other region of the world. Rural poverty accounts for some 90% of total poverty and 80% of the poor depend on agriculture or farm labour to support their livelihood. The total number of poor people in this
Sub-Saharan Africa
region of AFR is still increasing (Hall et al., 2001, p. 42).
• Natural resources and climate
By 2001 some 400 million ha (nearly 17% of the total regional land area of 2,359 million ha) was covered by for-est. In the context of maintaining the forest ecosystem intact, the current rate of deforestation stood at 0.7%
(16.5 million ha) per year and the decline of this most valuable resource is expected to continue. The area under land degradation is increasing. The causes are complex, but aspects such as soil erosion, soil compaction, reduced soil organic matter, declining soil fertility and soil bio-diversity are linked with agro-ecosystems and local environments. Forest biomes are important with regard to global tem-perature balances and rainfall distribu-tion and frequency in the context of
the accelerating global warming phe-nomenon. In particular, the farming systems in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas are in danger of having to experience increasing frequency and severity of droughts. These are likely to give rise to crop failure, high and rising cereal prices, distress sale of animals, decapitalization, impoverish-ment, hunger and in the end, famine.
These factors will be an incentive for households thus affected to try to cope with their cash and food shortages by cutting and selling firewood. This will make land degradation more incisive and accelerate the onset of desertifica-tion. Also, households might move temporarily, or permanently, to ‘bet-ter’, or less arid areas, creating con-flicts between sedentary farmers and pastoralists.
The cultivated area, as represented by arable land, is estimated to increase from 228 million ha, or 9.7% of the total land area in 1999, to 288 million ha, or 12.2% of the total land area for the region by 2030 (Table 8.4). This slow annual expansion of 0.81% is attributed mainly to conversion of for-ests and grassland and shortening fal-low, resulting in reduction of the
natural fertility of the soil. Due to pop-ulation pressure the increase of arable land in use is projected to continue (Bruinsma, 2003: Table 4.7 page 133).
If rotation periods and fallows con-tinue to be shortened the end result may well be a reduction of yield.
The farming systems, most closely linked with deforestation are the forest
TABLE 8.4. Overall land use in AFR. a
1997/99 2030
Gain over 32 years
Gain per year for 32 years
% Gain per year for 32 years Arable land use in millions of ha
228 288 60 1.87 0.81
a. Source: From Bruinsma, J. (ed.) World Agriculture: Towards 2015/
2030, An FAO Perspective. Earthscan, 2003, Table 4.8, page 135. © 2003 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Used with permission.
Chapter 8 Monitoring Intervention Strategies in Farming Systems
based system, the tree crop system, the root crop system and the cereal-root crop mixed system. The maize mixed, the highland perennial and the high-land temperate mixed systems experi-ence fuel wood shortages. In one way the forest based system might benefit from a reduction of excess moisture.
Under these (improved) conditions, a population influx from areas next to the forest frontier areas, might be tempted to move closer to the forest.
As such new settlers clear forests to plant their crops, the important resource base for carbon storage and energy creation, represented by for-ests, is affected adversely. A further increase of population and associated pressures in these areas would produce declining fallow periods, resulting in
downward pressure on yields and increasing weed populations.
• Science and technology
The FAO perspective on world agri-culture towards 2015/2030 (Bru-insma, 2003) indicates data on crop production stated in Table 8.4 above.
This shows that this substantial increase in overall production would be obtained through significant land expansion. Bruinsma, 2003, p. 133 indicates that empirical evidence for developing countries shows that such increases in output are achieved mainly through land expansion, when the potential for doing so exists. Set against the performance of the last 30 years (shown in Table 8.5) this pro-jected doubling of overall production seems quite optimistic.
Table 8.5 shows that only the produc-tion levels of rice, maize, roots and tubers and vegetables, increasing at a rate of 2.9%, 2.7%, 2.6% and 2.6%
respectively come anywhere near the
rate of 2.72% that would be required.
The disturbing point however is that such a production increase would have to come from a yearly increase in cul-tivated land of 2.35%, which is
TABLE 8.5. Trends in crop area, yield and output in AFR for 1970-2000. a
Crop
Harvested area 2000 (m ha)
Yield 2000 (t/ha)
Production 2000 (m tons)
Average annual change 1970-2000 Area % Yield % Production %
Rice 7 1.6 11 2.4 0.6 2.9
Maize 26 1.5 38 1.5 1.2 2.7
Millet 20 0.7 14 1.4 0.4 1.8
Sorghum 21 0.8 18 1.2 0.5 1.6
Oilcrops 24 0.3 6 0.9 0.7 1.6
Roots and tubers 18 8.4 154 1.7 1.0 2.6
Pulses 16 0.4 7 1.6 0.2 1.9
Vegetables 3 6.6 22 1.9 0.8 2.6
Fruits 8 6.2 47 1.6 0.0 1.6
a. Source: FAOSTAT; Hall et al., 2001, Farming Systems and Poverty, Improving Farmers’ Live-lihoods in a Changing World p. 44. © 2001 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Used with permission.
Sub-Saharan Africa
doubful when seen against the data of Table 8.4 (see page 143).
As most agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa may well continue to come from rainfed farming, farmers continue to be subject to the uncertain-ties of rainfall and day and night tem-peratures, which depending on agricultural ecological zones, delineate suitable growing seasons. Although increased production on heavy low-land soils, in humid and sub-humid tropics and on irrigated land may be expected, daily and yearly fluctuations in climate will continue to set decisive boundaries of production potential.
Therefore, application of technologies suitable for the various areas and developed with (and by) the full par-ticipation of the farmer-communities in those areas, by means of exchange of ideas and demonstration of results (pilot projects, designed and managed by the farmers themselves), will become ever more important. This is a difficult task for well-trained (commu-nication and social skills in addition to agricultural insight) and locally elected farmers’ representatives and extension workers. The animal and husbandry stock situation and produc-tion is shown in Table 8.6.
The threat from tsetse infection usu-ally is concentrated in the moist and sub-humid lowlands. Increasing num-bers of cattle tend to be raised in the moist and sub-humid zones, where the root crop and cereal-root crop mixed systems occur. Although this might continue, farming systems in dry areas tend to have higher numbers of cattle than those in moist areas (Hall et al., 2001, p. 45).
During the time-span 2000-2030, live-stock and poultry numbers are expected to grow moderately, con-sumer demand from urban areas being the driving factor (Hall et al., 2001, pp. 43-45).
• Trade liberalization and market devel-opment
The share of the region in world agri-cultural trade has fallen quite signifi-cantly since 1961, even though the absolute value of agricultural exports has risen. The sharpest fall occurred in Southern Africa, where the share in
TABLE 8.6. Trends in livestock populations and output in AFR for the period 1970-2000. a
a. Source: FAOSTAT; Hall et al., 2001, Farming Systems and Poverty, Improv-ing Farmers’ Livelihoods in a Chang-ing World, p. 45. © 2001 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Used with permission.
Species
Cattle 219 1.5
Sheep 189 1.4
Goats 194 2.3
Pigs 19 3.2
Poultry 809 2.9
Product
Total milk 19 1.8
Total eggs 1 3.7
Cattle hides
0.5 1.7
Chapter 8 Monitoring Intervention Strategies in Farming Systems
world agricultural trade fell from 9%
in 1961 to 3% in 1998.
In this connection Bruinsma (2003, pp. 235, 236) reports that the structure of world agricultural trade has changed markedly. As far as the devel-oping countries as a whole are con-cerned, in 1961/63 these countries recorded an overall agricultural trade surplus of US$6.7 billion. This disap-peared during the next four decades until the end of the century, so that by the end of the 1990s trade was virtu-ally in balance. Projections to 2030 suggest that this agricultural trade def-icit for developing countries will widen markedly, reaching an overall net import level of US$31 billion by that year.
The 49 LDCs (34 of which in 2003 reported a GNI per capita per year income of PPP US$765 or less are located in the WDR of AFR (see World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2005, Table 1.1) have been prominent in this respect. Their agricultural trade balance changed rapidly so that by the end of the 1990s imports were more than double the size of their exports.
This trade deficit is expected to widen further, to the extent that (expressed in constant international dollars) by 2030 it will reach four-fold the level of the year 2000 (Bruinsma, 2003, p. 235).
As far as AFR is concerned this trend reflects a significant fall in the share of agricultural exports in the total exports from the main areas of AFR. In some areas, such as West Africa, this may reflect a rapid increase in the export of
As far as AFR is concerned this trend reflects a significant fall in the share of agricultural exports in the total exports from the main areas of AFR. In some areas, such as West Africa, this may reflect a rapid increase in the export of