CONCLUSIÓN

Introduction

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 provided an opportunity for a third party to transform the conflict from an internal Soviet dispute to one among several sovereign states. This structural change gave other members of the international community the chance to contribute to the resolution of the NK conflict. According to Rubin et al, where disputants are unable or unwilling to move towards an agreement on their own, third parties often become involved either at the request of the disputants or on their own initiative.²⁹⁸

In the absence of any negotiation attempts by the parties in conflict, at the beginning of the disagreement, Armenia and Azerbaijan accepted Russia, the OSCE and Iran as mediators in the dispute.

On the other hand, the efforts of the Turkish government to play such a mediatory role were rejected by both the Armenian government and the Armenians inhabitants of NK. This rejection was primarily a result of the historical antagonism between Armenians and Turks from 1894-1923. At the time and even today, the Armenians view the Karabakh conflict as a continuation of past quarrels and are hugely suspicious of the role of the Turkish government in the 1915 genocide.

The Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati defined Iran's mediating role as an obvious response to the "natural" demand of the hostile parties from one of the neighbouring states.²⁹⁹ In addition, the close historical and geographical relationship between Iran and other countries in dispute as well as the presence of a large population of Azeris living in Iran, gave legitimacy to the mediation efforts carried out by the Iranian government.

The Iranian effort for mediation was initiated by the visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister, Dr Ali Akbar Velayati, to Armenia, Azerbaijan and NK in February 1992. This endeavour was followed by meetings between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia hosted by the Iranian President, Mr. Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, in Tehran in May 1992 which led to the signing of the Tehran agreement, containing eight articles. Although several ceasefires were agreed as a result of Iranian intervention they were all very short-lived due to a lack of collaboration between the opposing parties and other countries and international organizations.

The Russian Government played a leading role in the altercation either directly or through the Minsk Group. Russia’s mediation efforts began in 1991 after the visit of Boris Yeltsin and Nazarbayev, the Presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan, to Baku, Yerevan and Stepanakert. This intervention continued until May 1992 when Valdmir Kazimirov was appointed as the Russian President’s envoy to the negotiations. Kazimirov and Grachev, the Russian Defence Minister, travelled many times to the region and held many meetings regarding the NK conflict. In September 1992, they proposed a 60-day

cease-fire which was rejected by the Azerbaijan authorities. The negotiations continued and finally led to a cease-fire which was to take effect in May 1994.

Russia's involvement in mediation was primarily motivated by its desire to re-establish a presence in Armenia and Azerbaijan and increase its influence in the region. Russia intended to maintain a military presence in the Caucasus as it feared a ‘security vacuum’ being filled by Turkey, Iran or other non-regional powers, such as the US and NATO.³⁰⁰ After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia continued to rely on Russia for its security protection and therefore agreed for Russian troops to be stationed in Armenia.

Azerbaijan, however, resisted Russian attempts to exert influence within its borders and deemed such a presence a threat to its national sovereignty. The disagreement in NK provided an opportunity for the CSCE/OSCE to establish itself as a regional conflict-settlement organization.

After the break-up of the Soviet Union, the OSCE has been struggling with the problem of how best to intervene in the problems of disputed territories. A key development in the mediation to resolve the NK conflict was the United Nations accord in late 1992 to enable the OSCE to become the leading international body in the management and resolution of the NK disagreement.³⁰¹

In 1992 at the Helsinki conference, the OSCE called for the convening of a

“Conference on NK” to be held in Minsk, the capital of Belarus and arranged for a group of member states to organize the Minsk Conference. Organising and holding the conference was however more difficult than expected and in

the end, it was not held but the participating member states endorsed speedy negotiations for a formal cease-fire to be reached.

This group of OSCE members later renamed themselves the “Minsk Group”

and managed to meet separately in 1992 to agree on a methodology for negotiations. The countries involved were: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Belarus, Turkey and the United States.

After the Helsinki conference the peace process entered a new phase on 24^th March 1992, when Co-chairs were appointed to lead the Minsk Group. The current (July 2009) Co-chairs are from Russia, France and the United States

During the Budapest Summit of December 1994, the OSCE members strongly supported the mediation efforts of the Minsk Group and encouraged the countries in conflict to undertake negotiations with the final aim of arranging a ceasefire.

The United States of America also supported the negotiation process. This was the first example of the US participating directly in an effort to resolve a conflict on the territory of the former Soviet Union.

Following Russia’s cooperation with the OSCE, a ceasefire agreement was reached in May 1994 and is still in operation. According to a report by the latter, harmonizing its own efforts with those of the Russian Federation was one of the key prerequisites for this ceasefire.

Another international organization that attempted to contribute to the resolution of the conflict argument was the United Nations Security Council which passed four resolutions regarding this dispute. The recognition of NK as a legitimate part of Azerbaijan and addressing Armenia as a party to the conflict.

In 1992, the US diplomat, Goble indicated that Azerbaijan and Armenia are not able to solve their problems and suggested that peace would be established if Meghri was exchanged for Lachine and NK. This swap would enable Azerbaijan to have a border with Nakhchivan but would mean Armenia would be deprived of one with Iran.

In this chapter I will discuss the proposals made by Goble in detail and explore the contributions made by Iran, Turkey, the OSCE and Russia in solving the NK conflict.