Conclusiones sobre el período 2005-

Route 23 is a highly travelled route between Campbell River and Quadra Island. The ferry travels a relatively short distance of approximately two kilometres across the Discovery Passage.

FARE CHANGES

Fares on Route 23 have also increased substantially, percentage-wise. In 2003 the standard off- peak passenger fare was $4.75, while the vehicle fare was $11.00. By April 2014 the passenger fare increased to $9.90 (+108% over 2003) while vehicle fares increased to $23.00 (+109% over 2003).

PASSENGER VOLUME CHANGES

Passenger volumes also declined substantially on Route 23 over the ten-year period of 2003 to 2013, decreasing from 923,000 travellers in 2003 to 785,000 travellers in 2013. This represents a passenger decline of 15.2% over the period, or 140,000 fewer travellers each year.

An interesting finding from the analysis of passenger volume changes relative to fares is that Route 23 had the strongest correlation between fare increases and passenger volume declines. The correlation between fare increases and ridership declines was -0.96, nearly a perfect linear relationship between the two variables.

ESTIMATED DEMAND ELASTICITY

The demand elasticity for Route 23 from 2003-2013 is estimated at -0.67, which is more than double the rate of the Minor Routes overall (-0.30). This means that for every 10% increase in fares (inflation and GDP-adjusted), we can expect to see a 6.7% decrease in overall ridership.

PROPERTY VALUES

Like many other coastal regions, assessed property values on Quadra Island increased from 2006- 2011, then decreased from 2011-2014.

For Quadra Island, as Figure 57 (below) demonstrates, the total assessed value of all residential real

estate increased from $397 million in 2006 to $561 million in 2011, prior to declining to $509 million in 2014. From 2006-2014 this still represents a 28.2% increase in total assessed value, though the total assessed value decreased by 9.3% in the past three years.

Figure 57: Total Assessed Value, Residential Real Estates (Quadra Island, 2006-2014)

POPULATION CHANGES

The population trend of Quadra Island has been somewhat counter to that of other coastal communities, registering a 3% decline from 2,555 residents to 2,470 residents between 2001 and 2011, before increasing to 2,601 residents in 2011. Over the ten year period, the population increased by 5.3%.

Figure 58: Population Changes (Quadra Island, 2001-2011)

Route 19 between Nanaimo and Gabriola Island is one of the larger Minor Routes in terms of passenger volumes. The route traverses a total distance of 3.7 nautical miles across Northumberland Channel, and is a popular tourist destination as well as being commonly utilized by both residents of Nanaimo and Gabriola Island, due to its close proximity. The route also services a number of commuters, particularly from Gabriola Island to Nanaimo.

FARE CHANGES

From 2003 to April 2014 passenger fares increased from $5.25 to $10.80, an increase of 106%. During the same period, vehicle fares increased from $12.50 to $25.45, for an increase of 104%.

PASSENGER VOLUME CHANGES

Passenger volumes on Route 19 also declined substantially from 2003 to 2013, decreasing from 908,000 passengers in 2003 to 772,000 in 2013, a total decline of 136,000 annual passengers.

It is also notable that Route 19 has a very strong correlation between ferry prices and ridership

ESTIMATED DEMAND ELASTICITY

The calculated demand elasticity (price sensitivity) for Route 19 is -0.67, which is more than twice the elasticity of the Minor Routes overall.

This means that when real (inflation adjusted) ferry fares increase by 10%, we can expect a 6.7% decline in ridership.

PROPERTY VALUES

Assessed property values on Gabriola Island followed similar patterns to other coastal communities, increasing substantially from 2006 to 2011 prior to retracting from 2011 to 2014.

The total assessed value increased from $823 million to $1.12 billion from 2006 to 2011, prior to dropping back to $1.00 billion in 2014, a loss of $120 million.

POPULATION CHANGES

The population dynamics on Gabriola Island followed those of other coastal communities, increasing from 2001 to 2006 prior to declining from 2006 to 2011. In 2001 the total population of the island was 3,525 residents, which increased by 14.6% to 2011, prior to declining by less than 1% by 2014.

Figure 60: Residential Real Estate Prices (Gabriola Island, 2006-2014)

(GALIANO, MAYNE, PENDER, SATURNA

The ferry from Swartz Bay (Vancouver Island) to the Southern Gulf Islands is one of two services to the Southern Gulf Islands, alongside Route 9 (from Tsawwassen). The two routes combined carry nearly one million passengers per year, making them among the largest of the Minor Routes. As Route 5 and Route 9 have similar price histories and passenger volume changes, Route 5 will be used to describe the overall situation for the Southern Gulf Islands.

FARE CHANGES

Passenger fares along Route 5 increased by 102% from 2003 to 2014, from $6.25 to $12.60. Vehicle fares similarly increased by 102% over the same period, increasing from $19.50 to $39.45.

PASSENGER VOLUME CHANGES

Ridership of Route 5 declined by approximately 46,000 passengers between 2003 and 2013, representing a 9.2% drop, which is slightly lower than the average for all minor routes.

ESTIMATED DEMAND ELASTICITY

The demand elasticity for Route 5 from 2003 to 2013 was calculated at -0.45, meaning that when fares increase by 10% we can expect a 4.5% decrease in passenger ridership.

This demand elasticity is slightly higher than the average for all minor routes, meaning that users of this route are slightly more sensitive to price increases (and, in theory, price decreases).

PROPERTY VALUES

Total assessed property values on the Southern Gulf Islands all followed similar trends as the majority of coastal communities, increasing substantially from 2006 to 2011, then declining from 2011 to 2014. For all four islands combined, the total value of residential real estate increased from $1.74 billion to $2.44 billion between 2006 and 2011, prior to declining to $2.08 billion – a drop of 14.7% in only three years.

POPULATION CHANGES

The populations of all four Southern Gulf Islands increased from 2001 to 2006, then decreased by 2011. In total, the four islands increased in population from 4,210 to 4,960 between 2001 and 2006, then declined to 4,772 by 2011. Over the period of 2001-2011 the total population increased by 13.3%, however from 2006-2011 the population declined by 3.8%.