Measure N is aimed at controlling emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide . It 285.
is based on an assumption that all ships that weigh more than 100 tonnes would start using fuel with reduced sulphur content (it assumes a move in waters surrounding the UK to 1% sulphur fuel from the current standard of 1.5% sulphur fuel40) and reduce their NOx emissions by 25%. This measure forms part of the proposed package of measures in the Air Quality Strategy and part of the new combined measure R. It should, however, be noted that this measure represents only one of several possible courses of action that the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) might choose to pursue and does not necessarily represent the UK’s preferred option.
The assumption is that old and new vessels will be required to use cleaner fuel. Only 286.
new ships however will have to reduce their NOx emissions by 25%. The introduction of new ships to the fleet is assumed to be 1/30th of the fleet a year. The assumption is that this measure would be applicable from 2010
Costs and benefits for this measure have been assessed on a UK basis as recommended 287.
by the Green Book.41 For benefits, this includes benefits to the UK from both UK and foreign ships in UK waters (benefits to other countries from UK ships have not therefore been included). Costs have been calculated for the UK fleet. While it is clear there are benefits and costs outside the UK it is not feasible to carry out a ‘global’ cost-benefit analysis given the uncertainties and complexities involved.
Benefits of Measure N
Since Measure N is assumed to be implemented at an international level, the UK 288.
will benefit not only from improvements in the UK fleet but also from reductions in emissions from those elements of the global fleet that might affect air quality in the UK. The modelling of the benefits have therefore included these benefits. It does not, however, include additional benefits that would accrue to countries outside the UK as a result of this measure. The proportion of UK secondary particulate matter concentration derived from maritime sources (34% of sulphate and 23% of nitrate in 40 The assumption of the base line figure of 1.5% sulphur fuel is derived from the current Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA)
system that is applicable in the majority of the waters surrounding the UK. However the real average sulphur content is likely to be higher as the current global limit of 4.5% sulphur applies in wider waters.
2010) has been reduced in line with the expected decline in concentrations associated with the reduction in maritime emissions.
Table 3.126 below shows the resultant population weighted concentrations of each 289.
pollutant for each country in 2010, 2015 and 2020 relative to the baseline. Table 3.126: Change in concentrations by implementing Measure N for the UK
disaggregated by country
Country Pollutant Concentration changes relative to baseline (µg.m-3)a
2010 2015 2020 England PM10 (0.206) (0.257) (0.290) NO2 (0.014) (0.082) (0.143) Northern Ireland PM10 (0.115) (0.135) (0.148) NO2 (0.009) (0.052) (0.087) Scotland PM10 (0.115) (0.137) (0.151) NO2 (0.008) (0.045) (0.070) Wales PM10 (0.178) (0.216) (0.240) NO2 (0.012) (0.065) (0.123) UK PM10 (0.194) (0.241) (0.272) NO2 (0.013) (0.077) (0.127)
a Ozone concentration changes shown as a range incorporating results assuming both a zero threshold
and a 50ppb threshold. PM10 concentrations are presented in (µg.m-3, gravimetric).
Measure N is assumed to lead to a sustained change in concentrations. The benefits 290.
are therefore calculated over the period 2010 – 2109. Table 3.127 illustrates the quantified health impacts.
Table 3.127: Quantified impacts of implementing Measure Na
PM life years saved (’000s) – 6%
(2010 – 2109)
PM – RHA
(2020 p.a.) PM – CHA(2020 p.a.) SO2 as gas
b – Mortality (2020 p.a.) SO2 as gasb – RHA (2020 p.a.) 576 – 1,100 95 96 1.4 1.1
a Data presented in the table in brackets represents a negative impact – for ozone impacts this reflects
the increase in population weighted ozone concentrations presented in the previous table.
b This relates to the direct effects of SO
2 as a gas rather than the effects of SO2 as a precursor of sulphate
These benefits have then been monetised using the methodology described in Chapter 291.
2, to generate a Present Value (PV) in 2005 prices of the different impacts. The monetary values can be seen in Table 3.128 below.
Table 3.128: Annual present value of impacts of implementing Measure N (£millions)a
PM life years saved – 6%
PM – RHA PM – CHA SO2 as gas
– Mortality SORHA2 as gas – Buildings &materials
244 – 573 1 – 2 1 – 2 0.002 – 0.005 0.05 – 0.23 0.09
a Numbers in brackets represent negative values.
Costs of Measure N
The costs of Measure N only include those costs due to the impact on the UK fleet. 292.
To achieve the reductions in NOX emissions, two solutions have been considered:
advanced internal engine modifications (IEM) and selective catalytic reduction. The advanced IEM solution is more consistent with the definition of Measure N since it is estimated to achieve around a 30% improvement in NOX emissions; the SCR solution
would achieve emissions reductions well in excess of those defined in the measure (up to 90%). The costs for advanced IEM are therefore used in the central analysis presented here; the SCR costs are presented in Chapter 5 for comparison.
Benefits for Measure N have been estimated to 2109. For consistency the costs have 293.
therefore also been considered over the period 2010 to 2109. The assumed lifetime of the advanced IEM technology is 25 years; the capital costs have therefore been replicated every 25 years over the period 2010 to 2109.
The SO
294. 2 emissions are assumed to be achieved by switching from 1.5% to 1% sulphur
fuel from 2010. The associated operating costs have been extended to 2109.
Table 3.129 shows the capital, operating and total annualised costs associated with 295.
Measure N.
Table 3.129: Costs of implementing Measure N in the UK in 2005 prices (£millions)
Lifetime of
Technology (years) Capital Cost (2005 prices) Operating Cost (2005 prices) Annual PV ofCosts
20 0.5 0.8 1
Costs and benefits of Measure N
Table 3.130 below presents the annual Net Present Value (NPV) of Measure N, that 296.
is the annual benefits minus the annual costs. This is based on a 6% hazard rate reduction, for chronic mortality effects, and a range in possible lag times (0 or 40 years lag), as explained in Chapter 2.
Table 3.130: Annual costs and benefits of implementing Measure N in the UK (£millions)a
Annual PV of Costs Annual PV of Benefits Annual NPV
1 246 – 577 245 – 576
a Numbers in brackets represent negative values.
The table above shows that the benefits outweigh the costs of Measure N based on 297.
the recommended 6% hazard rate reduction for both the lag and the no-lag scenario. Further sensitivity analysis of the impacts on the NPV of this measure when duration is changed is presented in Chapter 5.