MARCO METODOLOGICO
5.8.1 Gerencias – Funciones Principales
Measure M assumes that UK Volatile Organic Compound (VOCs) emissions are reduced 276.
by 10 per cent from the baseline. VOCs are a precursor for ozone, hence a reduction in VOC emissions would reduce ozone and the consequent health impacts. This measure is assumed to apply in the UK only.
The measures that would achieve this reduction would be implemented in 2010. 277.
To achieve this 10 per cent reduction it was assumed that the following abatement technologies are implemented:
•
Petrol stations Stage II controls > 3,000m3 throughput•
Chemical and man made fibre production – thermal oxidation (TO)•
Chemical and man made fibre production – road tanker vapour recovery•
Chemical and man made fibre production – storage tank replacement Programme (TRP)•
Chemical and man made fibre production – leak detection & repair (LDAR)•
Chemical and man made fibre production – second stage vapour recovery unit (VRU)•
Chemical and man made fibre production – cryogenic condensation (CC)•
Offshore loading of crude oil – modification to shuttle tankers (MST)•
Offshore loading of crude oil – modification to floating production, storage & off- take vessels (MFPSO)•
Offshore loading of crude oil – vapour recovery unit (from ship loading) (VRU)Benefits of Measure M
The benefits of reducing VOC emissions are generated from the consequent reduction 278.
in ozone emissions. The change in ozone concentrations were modelled using the Ozone Source Receptor Model developed by Netcen.37 The benefits generated from reducing ozone emissions are reductions in acute mortality effects, respiratory hospital admission and crop and materials damage. As explained in Chapter 2, the calculation of the health benefits from ozone assume different thresholds, hence the quantified results are illustrated with a range.
37 Hayman et al (2005), ‘Modelling of Tropospheric Ozone’, AEA Technology, National Environmental Technology Centre. Report AEAT/
Detailed concentration mapping of the ozone concentrations was carried out in order 279.
to calculate the benefits of this measure (the methodology for the mapping has been described in more detail in Chapter 2 and the AQS review consultation document). Table 3.121 below shows the resultant population weighted concentrations for each country in 2010, 2015 and 2020 relative to the baseline.
Table 3.121: Change in concentrations by implementing Measure M for the UK disaggregated by country.
Country Pollutant Concentration changes relative to baseline
(µg.m-3)a
2010 2015 2020
England Ozone (0.023) – (0.006) (0.027) –(0.009) (0.029) – (0.011) Northern Ireland Ozone (0.020) – (0.010) (0.023) –(0.012) (0.023) – (0.014) Scotland Ozone (0.025) – (0.008) (0.029) – (0.010) (0.031) – (0.011) Wales Ozone (0.025) – (0.010) (0.030) – (0.014) (0.031) – (0.017) UK Ozone (0.024) –(0.007) (0.027) – (0.009) (0.029) – (0.011)
a Ozone concentration changes shown as a range incorporating results assuming both a zero threshold
and a 50ppb threshold. PM10 concentrations are presented in (µg.m-3, gravimetric).
Measure M is assumed to lead to a sustained change in ozone concentrations, as once 280.
the abatement technologies are fitted they will be required into the future for existing and new plants and processes. The benefits are therefore calculated over the period 2010 – 2109. Table 3.122 illustrates the quantified health impacts.
Table 3.122: Quantified impacts of implementing Measure M
Ozone mortality (2020 p.a.) Ozone RHA (2020 p.a.)
4 – 10 4 – 12
These benefits have then been monetised using the methodology described in Chapter 281.
2, to generate a Present Value (PV) in 2005 prices of the different impacts. The monetary values can be seen in Table 3.123 below. These monetised impacts include the impacts on crop yields and damage to materials avoided due to the reduction in concentrations.
Table 3.123: Annual present value of impacts of implementing Measure M (£millions)
Ozone Mortality Ozone RHA Crops Buildings &
materials
Costs of Measure M
The capital and operating costs for each of the VOC abatement techniques are listed 282.
in Table 3.124 below. The source of the costs for all the sectors apart from the petrol stations is Entec (2003b).38 The costs for Petrol Vapour Recovery Stage II controls are derived from the PVRII RIA (2005).39
Table 3.124: Costs of implementing Measure M (£millions)
Sector Source Abatement
Technology OperatingLife
(years)
Capital Cost (£m)
Operating
Cost (£m) AnnualisedPV of costs
(2006-2105) On and
Off-shore Loading
On and off-shore
loading crude oil VRU 15 1,682 68 177
On and off-shore
loading crude oil MFPSO 15 282 – 20
On and off-shore
loading crude oil MST 15 305 – 22
Organic chemical industry Chemicals & man-made fibres TO 15 69 3 7 Chemicals & man-made fibres LDAR 20 – 3 2 Chemicals & man-made fibres SSVRU 15 27 1 3 Chemicals & man-made fibres TRP 20 55 – 3 Chemicals & man-made fibres RTVRU 15 3 0.1 0.4 Chemicals & man-made fibres CC 20 9 1 1 Petrol
stations Petrol stations, vehicle refuelling PVR Stage II 15 167 2 13
Total (£millions) 2,599 77 249
The costs for PVR Stage II controls assume an economic lifetime of 15 years for the 283.
equipment. Shorter lifetimes have also been considered as sensitivity analysis in Chapter 5. The 15 year lifetime used in the above costs results in lower total annualised costs, compared to using a shorter lifetime. However, 15 years was considered as the central analysis in this chapter to be consistent with the methodology used to calculate the emission reductions.
38 Entec (2003b) ‘Revision of the Cost Curve for VOC’, report prepared for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 39 Final Regulatory Impact Assessment on Petrol Vapour Recovery Stage II Controls (PVRII)’, Defra, (2005c). Available at http://www.
Costs and benefits of Measure M
Table 3.125 below presents the annual Net Present Value (NPV) of Measure M, that is 284.
the annual benefits minus the annual costs. The results show that costs significantly outweigh the benefits for this measure.
Table 3.125: Annual costs and benefits of implementing Measure M in the UK (£millions)a
Annual PV of Costs Annual PV of Benefits Annual NPV
249 0.33 – 0.63 (249) – (248)
a Numbers in brackets represent negative values.