CONVOCATORIA EN EL ESTADO DE CHIAPAS PARA LA SOLICITUD Y ASIGNACIÓN DE APOYOS DEL COMPONENTE VI. PLANTACIONES FORESTALES COMERCIALES DEL PROGRAMA NACIONAL

As the great U.S. baseball manager Yogi Berra once observed, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Nonetheless, some short-term demographic trends are strong enough to suggest that the changing demo- graphic mix in the workforce will continue to increase the importance of un- derstanding and leveraging diversity. For example, the ethnic and cultural mix of the U.S. workforce is changing. The Census Bureau projects that by 2020 the U.S. workforce will consist of 62.3 percent White non-Hispanics, 18.6 per- cent Hispanics, 12 percent Blacks, and 5.7 percent Asians. Longer-term U.S. demographic projections further highlight the increasingly diverse character of the United States:39

• The population is projected to become older. By 2030, about one in five people will be sixty-five or over.

• By 2050, the total population is forecasted to grow from 282.1 million in 2000 to 419.9 million, a 49 percent increase. (This is in sharp contrast to most Eu- ropean countries, whose populations are expected to decline by 2050.)

• Non-Hispanic Whites are expected to decrease from the current 69.4 percent of the total population to 50.1 percent by 2050.

• People of Hispanic origin (of any race) are projected to increase from 35.6 million in 2002 to 102.6 million in 2050, an increase of 188 percent.

This would nearly double the Hispanic share of the nation’s population, from 12.6 percent to 24.4 percent.

• The Black population is projected to rise from 35.8 million in 2000 to 61.4 mil- lion in 2050, an increase of about 26 million or 71 percent. This would increase the Black share of the population to 14.6 percent from 12.7 percent.

• The Asian population is forecasted to grow 213 percent, from 10.7 million in 2000 to 33.4 million in 2050. This would double the Asian share of the population from 3.8 percent to 8 percent.

Non-Whites are expected to make up half of the working-age population in 2039 and more than 55 percent in 2050—up from 34 percent today. Table 2-2 shows the U.S. Census Bureau’s projected change in the working population by race between 2008 and 2050.

As shown in Figure 2-1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a dramatic increase in workers age sixty-five and older during the next decade,

Projected Change in the U.S. Working Population by Race between 2008 and 205040

Table 2-2

Year Hispanic (any race) Black Asian

2008 15% 15% 5.1% 2050 30% 15% 9.2% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% –20.00% Total, 16 years and older 8.50% 84.30% _83.40% 36.50% 2.40% 75 and older 65–74 55–64 25–54 _16–24 –6.90%

Projected Percentage Change in the U.S. Labor Force by Age from 2006 to 201643

while the percentage of younger workers is expected to decrease. This obvi- ously increases the need for succession planning at many organizations to en- sure the continuity of leadership. Due to the aging of the U.S. workforce, and to the clearly differentiated characteristics of the generations that comprise it (including veterans, baby boomers, gen-Xers, and millennials), firms are also paying more attention to how workers of different ages work together.

Work teams are often age diverse, and it is increasingly likely that an older employee will report to a younger supervisor. A survey conducted by the Society for Human Resource Management found that in organizations with 500 or more employees, 58 percent of HR professionals reported conflict between younger and older workers, largely due to their different perceptions of work ethics and work-life balance.41 _{As Ed Reilly, President of the American Management Asso-}

ciation, says, younger workers “are going to be the eventual managers. They will be as interested in keeping older workers as older workers today are interested in figuring out how to work with the younger generations.”42

Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in 1996 that almost half of all management positions in the United States were held by White men, diversity remains elusive in the top jobs. Ninety-six percent of the CEOs of companies in the 2007 Fortune 1,000 were White males (the list also included twenty-one White women, ten African American men, six Hispanic men, and three Asian women).44

Many countries and regions face talent shortages at all levels, and those gaps are expected to worsen. By 2040, Europe is forecast to have a short- fall of 24 million workers aged fifteen to sixty-five; raising the proportion of women in the workplace to that of men would cut the gap to 3 million. In the United States, the retirement of the baby boomer generation will probably mean the loss of large numbers of senior-level employees in a short period of time—nearly one-fifth of the working-age population (sixteen and older) of the United States will be at least sixty-five by 2016.45

Talent shortages are forecast to rise globally. In the United Kingdom, male-dominated sectors with a shortage of workers include engineering, IT, and skilled trades—yet 70 percent of women with science, engineering, or technology qualifications are not working in these fields.46 _{Pursuing diversity}

can allow firms to attract and retain scarce talent as well as reach other busi- ness goals. One European Commission study showed that 58 percent of com- panies with diversity programs reported higher productivity, improved employee motivation, and greater efficiency; and 62 percent said that the pro- grams helped to attract and retain top talent.47

Today’s war for talent is global, making recruiting and retaining a diverse workforce a more competitive business issue than ever. Beth Axelrod, Senior VP of HR for eBay noted, “Increasingly, diverse talent re- flecting this competitive landscape is one of the most crit- ical factors a business can leverage to consistently drive successful results. It’s important for a company’s work- force to not only reflect the diversity of talent available in the world today but also to mirror the diversity of its cus- tomer base.” Because eBay recognizes that women make most consumer purchasing decisions, it feels that placing talented women in key decision-making roles helps it to better understand its customers’ needs and preferences.48