The evaluation of the water management system necessitates a new look at the problem of water shortage. Meissner distinguishes two types of water shortage: hydrological water shortage and economic water shortage.694 Pakistan’s water economy fits in both categories, i.e. water shortage is both a problem of resource supplies and resource management. From a physical or hydrological perspective, vast supplies in the Monsoon period (in summer) and after the release of stored water (in winter) do provide temporary abundance. But this abundance is accompanied by frequent periods of shortage as supplies reflect highly unstable physical conditions which are beyond the reach of human intervention. The capacity of the water works to absorb the temporary water wealth in order to make it available for use in the dry period is limited for both natural and technical reasons.695
While significant increases in agricultural production over the last decades seem to suggest that sufficient water will be available to support similar increases in the
693 Ibidem, p. 54.
694 Dirk Messner: Klimawandel und Wasserkrisen der Zukunft (Climate change and water crises of the
future; in German); Sicherheit und Frieden (Security and Peace), vol. 27, no. 3, 2009, p. 168.
695 For an early, officially sanctioned assessment of the sustainability of water withdrawals see
Planning Commission: The report of the Indus Basin Research Assessment Group; Islamabad: Government of Pakistan, 1978, p. 8. According to this report, completed at a time when both large reservoirs (Mangla and Tarbela) were fully operational, it is not possible to increase the level of withdrawals much further while maintaining reliable irrigation water supplies. At that time, the population of Pakistan was estimated at 73 million (1977). As of 7 July 2011, it stood at 176 million (official population clock; http://www.census.gov.pk/index.php.
future, the state of water management points in the opposite direction. The estimated system losses, as detailed before, cause recurring shortfalls of water which are partly due to poor management of water courses and inadequate storage.696 Low water productivity, again a result of management deficiencies, adds to the economic water shortage.
Efforts to make more water available are not very promising. The Government of Pakistan expects shortfalls to range between 23.5 and 39.1 per cent in 2010/2011, based on an increase in irrigation efficiency from 40 to 45 per cent.697 Faruqee finds that the limits of agricultural production might have already been reached as the per- capita productivity is on the decline, largely due to the drastic rise in population.698 Further extension of the cropped area is effectively limited by the availability of land and water as well as hydrological conditions.699
The implementation of recommended reforms, such as – productivity-oriented land use and efficient crop selection,
– gradual redistribution of land and improved land tenure and access to credit, – comprehensive drainage and canal management,
– water education and research,
– elimination of government intervention in agricultural commodity markets, – privatization of water services and reduction of public micro-management, is a prerequisite to raising productivity.700
But Faruqee cautions that even with these steps taken only marginal increases seem realistic. The consequences of this condition are reflected in a critical state of nourishment and overall public health.701 According to UN estimates, a large part of Pakistan’s population regularly suffers hunger and diseases related to malnutrition.702
696 Mustafa et al. estimate that the existing storage can take up only 30 days worth of water supplies,
as compared to India’s 120 to 220 days and Egypt’s 700 days; cf. Daanish Mustafa, Majed Akhter & Natalie Nasrallah: Understanding Pakistan’s water – security nexus; Peaceworks no. 88; Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 2013, p. 9; www.usip.org/files/resources/PW88_Understanding- Pakistan’s-Water-Security-Nexus.pdf (May 2013).
697 Ministry of Water and Power: Pakistan Water Sector Strategy, vol. 4, op. cit., p. 171 – 172.
Projections were made in 2002.
698 Rashid Faruqee: Pakistan’s agriculture sector: Is 3 to 4 percent annual growth sustainable? World
Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. 1407; Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1995, p. 4, 7 – 8. A critical factor is Total Factor Productivity per crop which is decreasing in most crops in both Punjab and Sindh.
699 Ibidem, p. 11 – 12.
700 Ibidem, p. 26 – 29. For a concise overview of measures to raise water productivity see David
Molden, U. Amarasinghe & I. Hussain: Water for rural development; IWMI Working Paper no. 32, 2001, p. 7.
701 The Global Hunger Index 2009 lists Pakistan, along with India and Bangladesh, in a category of
alarming food insecurity. South Asia as a whole has some of the highest levels of hunger and gender inequality worldwide. See International Food Policy Research Institute, Welthungerhilfe, Concern Worldwide: Global Hunger Index 2009; Washington, Bonn, Dublin: IFPRI, 2009, p. 13, 18, 23; www.ifpri.org/publication/2009-global-hunger-index (Sept. 2011).
702 Michael Kugelman: Pakistan’s food insecurity: roots, ramifications, and responses; in: M. Kugelman
& Robert Hathaway, eds.: Hunger pains. Pakistan’s food insecurity; Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2010, p. 6 - 7, citing World Food Program data. Toor, referring to the same source, concludes that abouth 50 percent of Pakistan’s population consumes less the minimum required for average human need; Saadia Toor: The structural dimensions of food insecurity in Pakistan; ibidem, p. 99. Parts of NWFP/KPP, FATA and Balochistan are affected the most, central parts of the Punjab the least.
The potential effects of climate change on water availability are difficult to estimate.703 Studies of climate change may lack accuracy, mainly due to the complex
nature of climate and its effects, and their findings may as such be scientifically debatable. But the region’s vulnerability to rising temperatures and lack of rains should serve as a warning strong enough to make sophisticated water management a top priority – not only, but especially in countries like Pakistan.
Alternative strategies are fraught with manifold risks. Raising irrigation efficiency is prohibitively expensive, as Shiklomanov cautions.704 Charcoal spraying of glaciers to accelerate melting does not render significant additional supplies of water, but involves environmental risks.705 Artificial rain is another method, yet again with limited effect.706 Seawater desalination is very costly – the main reason why it is only
practiced by a few very rich economies, particularly on the Arabian Peninsula. Industrial water recycling is cost-intensive, too. Building extra reservoirs to store water that would otherwise be left to flow of into the sea in summer appears to be the most feasible option. Politically, however, it is highly controversial, as will be seen in the water sharing section of this study. From a water management perspective, the fact that this controversy has been lasting for more than two decades means that in this period the discrepancy between water needs and water supplies has grown. Trading water among stakeholders might be an option, provided both sides – e.g. Sindh and Balochistan – agree on a transfer mode that would bring benefits to both sides. Extra-basin trading seems unrealistic as long as the relationship between India and Pakistan remains unfavourable. Archer et al. conclude that the only way to avert serious water shortage is to cap sectoral demand in one way or another through much more economic water utilization and integrated water management that prevents the further deterioration of existing sources of water.707
Implementing water sector reforms hinges on public perceptions of the water situation. Individual perceptions of water availability might conflict with official or academic assessments as local realities perceived by common water users typically
703 Assessments of the current and prospective water – climate nexus in Pakistan rely on weather and
river data that go back around 50 years, allowing for only limited interpretation, as Hashmi and Siddique point out. A qualified analysis of climate change would have to be based on a complex set of data, spanning a long period of time, and on metering in different locations. Cf. Danial Hashmi & Muhammad Siddique: Influence of climate change on upper Indus flows; in: Pakistan Engineering Congress: World Environment Day 2009; Lahore: PEC, 2009, p. 31 – 37. Also D. Archer et al.: Sustainable management; op. cit., p. 1885.
704 Igor A. Shiklomanov: Water transfer as one of the most important ways to eliminate water
resources deficits and solve water management problems; in: Proceedings of the UNESCO international workshop Interbasin Water Transfer, Paris, 25 – 27 April 1999, p. 206; http://hispagua.cedex.es/documentacion/documentos/interbasin_water_transfers.pdf (Feb. 2011). Water transfers, from one basin to another or within a basin, have been implemented in several large river basins. Pakistan, through several link canals, actively practises intra-basin water transfers. As the Indus is the only major river basin in Pakistan, the potential of river links is limited.
705 This method has been given some consideration in Pakistan: Charcoal spraying on glaciers
proposed; Dawn, 28 March 2001; Melting of glaciers under study; Dawn, 27 April 2001; Water shortages and artificial glacier melting; The News, 9 Sept. 2002. To date this method has not been implemented, mostly due to the potential destabilization of glaciers.
706 Cloud-feeding, originally a military tactic employed by the U. S. Air Force during the Vietnam War to
create adverse battlefield conditions for the enemy, was applied in Pakistan in 2000 on an experimental basis: Artificial rain arranged; Dawn, 5 July 2000. It has not been used on a regular basis as its effects are expected to be marginal in the case of large-scale irrigation.
do not take into account the overall hydrological state of the water source (groundwater aquifer, river or tributary). Thus the causes of water shortage are often not fully realized. This lack of transparency, compounded by deficient official information, prevents people from realizing the consequences of overuse or of dumping garbage into drains and rivers. The high rate of water-borne diseases in Pakistan, many of which relate to the consumption of untreated water, is only one symptom of a widespread lack of water awareness.708
Additionally, while basic water resource information is available, the specific supply - demand relationship in any particular location is too complex to be reflected in plain statistics, making it difficult for individuals as well as institutionalized decision-makers to draw adequate conclusions. In-depth assessments, like the World Bank commissioned studies or research conducted by IWMI, are published in English and typically circulated in the political and academic spheres, limiting their potential effect to a very small group.709 The role of professional water knowledge has been central
to the country’s water management. The Partition of 1947 has left Pakistan with a shortage of trained water management experts, as Kreutzmann notes.710 Though this shortfall had been balanced by the 1970s when Pakistan had gained a reputation for its expertise in hydraulic engineering, water knowledge has not kept up with development.711
Another aspect of water information and communication – and the lack thereof – is the continued focus on the supply side of water management. While the demand for water is expected to rise strongly over the coming years, little attention is given to the principal source of this development: reproduction.712 From 1951 to 2010, the
708 The need to provide water-related public education was realized only a few years ago when the
government inaugurated a UNDP sponsored Mass Awareness Project on Water Conservation; cf. Government of Pakistan press release: Sherpao to chair steering committee on water resources conservation; Dawn, 24 June 2003.
709 Though English is the most widely spoken foreign language in Pakistan, it is by no means an asset
of a majority of people in Pakistan, particularly not in the countryside.
710 Hermann Kreutzmann: Water towers for Pakistan; Geographische Rundschau – International
Edition, vol. 2, no. 4, 2006, p. 55. Cf. also Michel: The Indus Rivers, op. cit., p. 346 – 347.
711 World Bank: Water assistance strategy, op. cit., p. XVI. Lack of education has an adverse effect on
agricultural productivity, cf. Faruqee: Pakistan’s agriculture, op. cit., p. 20. Wolff notes that knowledge transfer in the water management sector has failed to produce expected results in Asia, unlike in other world regions, because research is focussed on improving medium-scale irrigation systems, rather than the problems affecting the large-scale systems in India and Pakistan, especially the allocation and delivery of water within the irrigation system; Peter Wolff: Irrigation in the world – challenges for the future; in: Constanze Engel, G. Burkard, H. Hemann, W. Troßbach & P. Wolff, eds.: Development – organization – interculturalism; Supplement no. 91 of the Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics, Kassel: University of Kassel, 2009, p. 77 – 78; http://www.uni- kassel.de/upress/online/frei/978-3-89958-642-8.volltext.frei.pdf (July 2011). Lowdermilk notes that a disregard for field research, aloofness British-style, is partly to blame for inadequate irrigation expertise; Max K. Lowdermilk: Major institutional constraints in Pakistan’s agricultural development; in: Richard A. Stanford, ed.: Rural development in Pakistan; Durham, N.C.: Carolina Academic Press, 1980, p. 150.
712 Calculations for the 1995/2025 period by IWMI researchers expect an average population growth of
1.9 % p.a., leading to a rise in cereal consumption of 2.2 % p.a. The expected rise in cereal production, by contrast, is only 1.6 %. As a result, an estimated 10 % of consumption will have to be met through imports. Cf. Rob de Nooy: Water management for agriculture in priority river basins; WWF Living Waters Programme; Zeist, NL: 2003, section 3 (South Asia – Indus River Basin), p. 9; http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/?9201/Water-Use-for-Agriculture-in-Priority- River-Basins (June 2008); The report is based on David Molden, U. Amarasinghe & I. Hussain: Water for rural development; IWMI Working Paper no. 32, 2000, p. 50, 74, 78.
population has risen five-fold while the per-capita water availability has statistically shrunk to one-fifth, according to official estimates.713 This means that progress in
water management, particularly by harnessing more water in reservoirs, has failed to compensate for this dramatic rise in demand. Prospective water demands from a steadily growing population put a huge stress on the existing water management system threatening its ecological sustainability.714 The hydrological state of water sources in the Basin (ground and surface water) advises caution with regard to expected supplies.
Human reproduction being a socially sensitive issue not only in Pakistan, the demographic factor has so far been largely underestimated.715 While the public discussion of water-related challenges grows in scope and detail the world over, the individual awareness of this problem has not led to a change in behaviour – both on the part of individuals and on the part of corporate, government, religious and other social institutions.716 The fact that high rates of reproduction occur in many arid world
regions indicates that demography is disconnected from the state of natural resources and the wider economy.717 This phenomenon requires in-depth enquiries into the state of water knowledge and awareness and the flow of water-related information, particularly between urban and rural areas.718
713 Ministry of Finance: Economic Survey 2009/2010; Islamabad: GoP, 2010, p. 34 – 36. WAPDA, in a
presentation by its chairman to the Pakistan Development Forum 2007 (Islamabad, 27 April, 2007), referred to the same statistics to underline its demand for new reservoirs; http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPAKISTAN/Resources/Presentatiion-Chairman-Wapda.pdf. Shahid Ahmed, of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), using the same data, estimates that in order to meet the projected population increase (from 168m in 2010 to 209m in 2025) water availability will have to rise by 31%; presentation to seminar Water conservation, present situation and future strategy, Islamabad, 21 May 2009; cf. executive summary, www.pakwater.gov.pk (July 2010).
714 A.N. Laghari, D. Vanham & W. Rauch: The Indus Basin in the framework of current and future
water resources management; Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, no. 16, 2012, p. 1079.
715 With the exception of the Persian Gulf monarchies, Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only
Asian countries whose population has risen fourfold in the 1960 – 2012 period; http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/countries?display=default (May 2013).
716 There is no shortage in official statements decrying the water situation: Minister admits country
facing water shortage; Dawn, 14 Dec. 1999; CE cautions against water shortage; Dawn, 4 Oct. 2000; Water resources depleting: minister; Dawn, 4 July 2002 – to cite only a few. Countless newspaper articles document the critical observation of government action in the water sector and, in a remarkable demonstration of freedom of expression and media, demand determined and comprehensive water management. In this, the country’s English language publications, like Dawn, The News and Daily Times, are exemplary.
Education and access to information are among the critical factors in reproduction as well as water utilization; cf. Khaleda Manzoor: An attempt to measure female status in Pakistan and its impact on reproductive behaviour; The Pakistan Development Review, vol. 32, no. 4, 1993, p. 919, 925.
717 Hammond World Almanac. World Fact Book; 1st ed., 2008, München: Langenscheidt, p. 16 – 17. In
this context, two other critical factors commonly underestimated are the labour market, i.e. the lack of jobs, and the lack of a social security system that would provide a means of income to retired people who have traditionally been relying on younger family members for their livelihood.
718 A major factor in the dramatically rising population seems to be the widespread poverty, particularly
in the country-side, that forces millions of low-income families to make their children contribute to the family income. Given the complete lack of public welfare, social security and pension schemes (except for public sector employees), the joint family has only its members to rely on for economic survival. Any initiative towards slowing the upward demographic trend has to address the lack of economic opportunities, i.e. jobs, and retirement schemes. The growing number of jobseekers inevitably exacerbates the existing tough competition, causing wages to fall and work conditions to deteriorate, creating a vicious circle. According to UN estimates, 60% of the population live on only two Dollars per day; cf. UNESCO: World Water Development Report 2012; Paris: UNESCO, 2012, p. 823. At current (May 2013) rates, 2 Dollars equal 200 Rupees. My regular personal communication with residents of Lahore and Islamabad confirms this. For office assistants and school teachers it is not unusual to earn
The failure of public and private institutions in Pakistan to analyze and discuss the causes of this massive population growth stands in the way of progressive water management. The separation of resource management from social policy (family planning, education, health care etc.) has adverse effects on water availability.719 The water cycle, more acutely than other resource system, commands people to live within their means – not only, but especially in countries like Pakistan. Consequently, popular awareness of the personal and societal consequences of inadequate reproduction will have to become an essential element of progressive water management, particularly in the rural areas which tend to be disconnected from the urban centres in many ways, not least in terms of information, education and communication. A shift from supply management to demand management is inevitable if drastic consequences on large parts of the population are to be avoided.
Conclusion
This chapter has rendered important findings relevant to the problem of water sharing. First, the institutional development of the Indus Basin irrigation system has demonstrated the presence of strong political factors in water management. The role and status of the state and the bureaucracy have in part determined the shape of water institutions since the colonial era. This continuity is manifested both formally, as several colonial-era institutions remain effective to date, and informally, as reflected in the culture of today’s water management. This continuity, not surprisingly, explains why some colonial-era problems survived well into the era of independence. The water sector continues to be a highly status-oriented example of top-down government. On the downside, a combination of over-administration and micro- management, misallocation of funds, corruption, a lack of up-to-date research and a