SOBRE DESARROLLO
4.2.- LA ECONOMÍA DEL DESARROLLO Y LA TEORÍA DEL INTERCAMBIO DESIGUAL
As illustrated above, climate change will increase disaster risk, primarily through increasing the impact of and exposure to hazards and by affecting livelihoods. However, the assumption that climate change will always increase disaster risk should be questioned. For instance, it is likely the disaster risk of some people, particularly the wealthy in developed countries, will be unaffected by climate change as they have such high adaptive capacity and access to resources and coping strategies (CAFOD 2014).
It is also possible climate change could decrease disaster risk for some people. The IPCC definition of adaptation to climate change includes the aim to ‘exploit beneficial opportunities’
(IPCC 2012: 5), implying climate change could have positive effects, resulting in a reduction in vulnerability for some people. In some areas livelihoods could become more secure, or new livelihoods will become viable. For example, some species of fish might become more abundant (Badjeck et al. 2010), decreasing vulnerability for some fishing livelihoods, and grapevine cultivation will become possible for new areas in northern Europe (Moriondo et al.
2013), allowing for diversification of agricultural livelihoods. However, the processes of climate change, in particular the trend of increasing average temperatures that could facilitate improved agricultural livelihoods in some northern countries, will increase the vulnerability of people elsewhere by harming their agricultural opportunities (IPCC 2014a).
Furthermore, whilst it was suggested above climate change could result in political and economic reforms that increase disaster risk, the opposite could also be true in some cases.
Blaikie et al. (2004) argue the mass trauma of disasters could result in transformative political changes that reduce disaster risk, citing how the 1970 East Pakistan cyclone storm surge contributed to the growth of the Bangladesh independence movement, and how the
governments of Niger and Ethiopia were unseated after their incompetence in handling the Sahel famine of the 1970s. The impact of climate change on hazards could have such a result. Therefore, though this analysis is conjectural, because some people will have such access to resources they will be largely unaffected by climatic changes, through creating
opportunities for new livelihoods, and via transformative changes in the aftermath of disasters, climate change will not necessarily increase disaster risk for everyone.
5 Conclusion
Climate change will increase disaster risk by affecting both the hazard and vulnerability sides of the PAR model. Climate change will exacerbate conditions for those who are already most vulnerable to disasters, whether through increasing the likelihood of the destruction of their physical environment, undermining people’s livelihoods and incomes, and contributing to rapid urbanisation.
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