Many are quick to proclaim the death of a political party, however, any pronouncements of a funeral for the Vlaams Belang are premature. Sometimes when a party appears dead, it is merely dormant, and poising itself for a resurgence years down the road. It may be particularly
appealing for the media to portray a far-right party as dead because it suggests that democracy has triumphed. I suggest that the Vlaams Belang will follow a trajectory similar to France’s Front National, a party everyone thought had died when Jean-Marie Le Pen stepped down as a leader, only to experience a resurgence under the leadership of his daughter, Marine. Marine Le
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Pen was well aware of the fact that the FN has been written off by the public and, in particular, the media:
For the last two years we have been buried. The media and political analysts have overseen a burial ceremony. They have laid out the wreaths and said, we’re done with the National Front, and I must say that many of them added ‘good riddance.’ (Le Pen 2010).
Marine Le Pen promised that the Front National was not dead, but evolving, and she was right. The party toned down some of its racist rhetoric-just like the Vlaams Belang is trying to do-and performed well in the 2012 elections, earning 13.6% of the vote in the National Assembly, while Le Pen earned nearly 18% of the votes in the first round of the Presidential Election.
Many have claimed that the Vlaams Belang is a dying party and that the election of 2014 was the nail in its coffin. Right now the N-VA is the most popular party in the country and it has a competitive edge over the Vlaams Belang; however this is subject to change. The fact that many current voters of the N-VA once supported Vlaams Belang suggests their party loyalty is not deep rooted and they could easily make the switch back if circumstances change. One Vlaams Belang party member noted that, the entire Flemish Movement vacillates over time in its political leanings. He noted that, while the Flemish Movement (VVB) is a nonpartisan
movement, the dominant factions within it can change over time from moderate to radical. He predicted that many members of the VVB would “get more radical again because they see that the N-VA is not working.” 39
The primary advantage the N-VA has over the VB is not appearing racist, but if, with the passing of the torch from De Winter to Van Grieken, the VB can downplay its racist image, it may regain a competitive edge over the N-VA. This new and improved Vlaams Belang could be appealing to those who feel that the N-VA has made too many compromises regarding the
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Flemish nationalist agenda. Jan Beyers, Professor of Political Science at the University of Antwerp predicted that, by hijacking the agenda of the Vlaams Belang and occupying the same competitive niche, the N-VA was putting itself in a risk position, saying:
There is no doubt about that. In the long run, I think this will be a problem for the party. Right now, all is going well. They will have to make compromises, make unpopular policies, so on so forth…and then that will be the critical defining moment. Winning elections is fun, but surviving a crisis is a bit more salient. Their problem is that they have become more conservative, more right wing, but it has not become a radical right wing party or anti-immigrant party, but they have a constituency that has been socialized in this way of thinking. How will they serve them? 40
There is some evidence to suggest that some who voted for the N-VA in 2014 are disappointed with the party’s performance. A representative from the VVB noted that
organization was happy a Flemish nationalist party was governing, but that they were “deeply disappointed” that there were not more pro-Flemish policies on the agenda. 41
Polls conducted in a year after the party’s victory in 2014 reveal that, while N-VA is still the largest party in
Flanders, its popularity is decreasing by roughly 4% while the Vlaams Belang’s popularity is increasing by 2.2%.42 While it is too soon to say that the Vlaams Belang is making a comeback, it is fair to say that, with 8% of the public saying they would vote for the party in the next
election, the party is not dead. Ultimately, this suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, it can be positive for a far-right political party to have strong support from extremist movements. These extremists can provide a loyal support base that makes the party less vulnerable to niche competition. When faced with a viable niche competitor, like the N-VA, the moderates in the organization may shift their support, however the loyalists will remain and prevent the death of the party.
40
Interview with Jan Beyers, June 23, 2014.
41 The full text of the interview with the representative is available at “Vlaamse Volksbeweging ontgoocheld
wegens to weinig ‘Vlaams.’ 24 July, 2014. Available at
http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/17781/Regeringsvorming/article/detail/1956350/2014/07/24/Vlaamse-Volksbeweging- ontgoocheld-wegens-te-weinig-Vlaams.dhtml.
42
For the full results of the poll, see “NVA Verliest in Peiling, maar blijft Grootste Partij.” Gazet van Antwerpeni, 29 April, 2015.