El modelo básico de Solow

following the Second World War. The present chapter shows how these and other processes, for which flow data are not available, affected population stocks at successive post-war censuses to 1976 and in a few cases to 1981. It describes how Australia's total population diversified in ethnic terms.

5.2 THE COVERAGE OF POST-WAR CENSUSES

Many of the processes examined in Chapter 4 relate to persons who were or had been permanent residents of Australia. The others, however, refer to the population actually located in Australia or moving between Australia and overseas, i.e. the de facto population. It is this population alone for which data on demographic characteristics were released at censuses to 1976,'*' and for which the major part of results from the 1981 Census are to become available.^

Other general points need to be made about the nature of Australian census data as they affect the findings given in this chapter. Firstly, all data collected from censuses are only estimates of the population stock at particular times. Invariably, some persons will be missed by the census,

causing under-enumeration, and others will mis-state answers or give no response to particular questions. Until the 1971 Census, under-enumeration, as measured by post-enumeration surveys, was considered insufficient to justify changes to census counts of the total population size. However, it increased between

3

the 1971 and 1976 Censuses from 1.350 to 2.709 per cent - although this was no higher than that experienced by comparable countries - before decreasing

1. Except for adjusted total age distributions for 1971 and 1976. A.B.S. (1979b), Estimated Age Distribution of the Population, States and Territories of Australia. June 1971 to June 1976 (3201.0), Canberra, p. 2 and pp. 26-27.

2. A.B.S. (1982b), Population Estimates: An Outline of the New Conceptual Basis of A.B.S. Population Estimates (3216.0), Canberra, p. 2.

3. A.B.S., 1976 Census: Population of States and Territories Adjusted for Under-enumeration as Shown by Post-enumeration Survey (2212.0), pp. 1-3.

to 1.86 per cent between 1976 and 1981.4 5*7 Despite this under-enumeration, the unadjusted totals usually remain when population characteristics are

considered, as they are here.

Secondly, in processing the 1976 Census, a sample basis”* was used except

for certain characteristics: age, sex, marital status and birthplaces of

Australia, the U.K. and Eire, and 'other', each of which was fully processed. For general purposes, the A.B.S. considers that the huge sample size - in excess of 6.5 million persons - guarantees reliable estimates of the many minority groups encompassed by the census.^ Full processing was again carried

7 out for the 1981 Census.

Thirdly, as indicated in Chapters 3 and 4, at Australian censuses until and including 1961, full-blood Aboriginals were excluded from all estimates of

the total population. However, census collectors still counted the

number of full-blood Aboriginals. These estimates may be added to those of the rest of the population to yield a series comparable with later censuses. A further complication also noted above is the exclusion of Aboriginals from official cross-tabulations to the 1966 Census. Again they have been added here, as appropriate, to cross-classified data in 1966, although this has not always been possible where no information is available on the categories into which they might fall.

4. A.B.S., 1981 Census: unpublished result. See also Doyle, Brian (A.B.S.)

(1982a), 'The 1981 Census: Early Results and Evaluation', Paper presented to the First National Conference of the Australian Population Association, Canberra, pp. 12-14.

5. The following sampling scheme was adopted to meet budgetary restrictions

and satisfy users' demands:

'i Process all schedules from non-private dwellings ... in Australia ii Process all schedules from private dwellings in the Northern

Territory (to provide accurate estimates of the Aboriginal population's characteristics)

iii Process 50% of schedules from private dwellings in all States and

the A.C.T. This sample was selected at the Collection District (CD)

level by randomly selecting either the first or second private dwelling in the CD, and then systematically taking every second private dwelling after that. All persons within each selected dwelling were included in the sample'.

A.B.S., 1976 Census: Making Sense of the Census (2129.0), p. 2. 6 . Ibid., p p . 2-3.

7. A.B.S., 1981 Census: The 1981 Census of Population and Housinq (Major

Fourthly, because of migration category jumping (Chapter 4), sampling of certain arrivals and departures, delays in registering vital events after their occurrence, differing rates of under-enumeration at censuses and of international movements and vital events, it is not possible to measure intercensal population changes exactly. Broad reasons only are therefore advanced in describing the nature of intercensal population diversification according to ethnic categories.

5.3 TOTAL POPULATION SIZE AT POST-WAR CENSUSES

Table 5.1 shows the various de facto population totals obtained at post-war censuses to 1981, through enumerating the population in scope and

including full-blood Aboriginals at each census. At censuses from 1947 to 1961, the total population is described below mostly without full-blood Aboriginals, although the discussion of racial origin includes some reference to them. At the 1966 Census, full-blood Aboriginals are included where

possible, as mentioned above.

Over the post-war period 1981, the de facto population of Australia almost doubled (Table 5.1). The largest numerical increases occurred in the

seven-year intercensal periods 1947-54 and 1954-61 which coincided with high levels of total net migration gains and increasing levels of natural

increase. However, a relatively large increase was also recorded for the five-year period 1966-71 when net migration gains again peaked (Table 4.1)

and natural increase was climbing to another high at the beginning of the 1970s. Average rates of growth generally fell over the period from around 2h per cent per annum immediately after the War to 1 1/5 per cent per annum in the first half of the 1970s, when net migration and natural increase both exhibited low levels. They then increased, as net migration and natural increase rose

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