In this section for each of the regions at the scope of this study, the development in the share of renewable and nuclear power production is graphically depicted. In addition, observations of the main trend(s) and an interpretation from a renewable energy expert - aiming at explaining the underlying reasons - are provided.
Note that for an accurate interpretation of the development of the share of nuclear or renewable power production this always has to be considered in relation with the overall developments in total power production. Therefore, the development of total public power production, relative to the year 1990, is also provided in the charts.
The methodology for determination of the results given in this section can be found in Section 2.4.
Australia
Despite its significant uranium deposits, there are no nuclear power facilities in Australia. Hydro power has remained the main renewable power source in the period 2000 – 2011. The share of hydropower has been constant between 5 and 8%. The share of wind energy especially since 2005 increased strongly while the use of bioenergy (mainly primary solid biofuels – sugar cane residue and wood waste - and biogas) after a steady growth between 2000 and 2008, decreased in recent years. The Clean Energy Future plan of 2012 reaffirmed the commitment to 20% renewable electricity production by 2020 and provided support which should increase renewable production in future. However, there have been a number of policy changes with South Australia reducing its rates for existing renewable power projects and eliminating support for new projects. Recently the Australian government has also been considering to
“grandfathering” the scheme to allow only existing investments to continue, but to halt the support for new renewable energy projects. These developments need to be continuously watched and could have serious consequences for renewable power in the country.
Figure 31 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 – 2011 in Australia.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
Figure 32 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in Australia.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total public power production (%) Waste
Geothermal Ocean Solar Bio Wind
China
The share of power production from non-fossil sources has been constant in China for the period of interest. The share of public power production from hydropower and nuclear power fluctuated between 15% and 19% and 1% and 2% respectively. However, in absolute terms public power production increased by a factor 3 in a decade and the steady share of non-fossil production implies an equivalent increase in hydro and nuclear capacity.
Deployment of renewable energy forms a strong element in the overall energy and industrial policy. The 11th Five-Year Plan (2006 - 2010), during which the 2006 Renewable Energy Law was made effective, resulted in the establishment of renewable energy markets, the completion of renewable resource evaluations, and construction of many renewable projects. The 12th Five-Year Plan (2011 - 2015) aims for 11.4% of non-fossil resources in primary energy consumption by 2015 (and 15% by 2020). Indicative cumulative capacity growth figures are given in the table below. The policy support consists among others of feed-in tariffs and preferential taxes and access to cheap credit. Projects approved by government are granted access to grid in the Renewable Energy Law. Priority dispatch is guaranteed by law, but often not applied in practice.
Another point of attention is that not all installed capacity can be connected to the grid (only 75% of wind capacity was connected in 2011). The Renewable Energy Law has therefore been amended in 2009 to improve grid access, however not all changes have already taken effect.
For PV, China has recently amended its feed-in tariff to introduce regional differentiation of tariffs and also introduced further value-added tax rebates.
Table 4 Power generation capacities (2011) from IEA ETP (2014) and indicative capacity targets in the 12th FYP of China (GW)
Figure 33 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in China.
Figure 34 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in China.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
France
France traditionally has an extremely high share of nuclear power of about 80%. This, combined with the share of 9% to 14% of hydropower, makes power from fossil fuels only marginal and suggests little room for the deployment of renewable power production technologies if nuclear and hydropower production remain equally dominant in the future.
However, since 2004 there has been an increase in wind power production from almost non-existent to ~2.1% in 2011 due to the feed-in tariff provided by the Government.
France is the only country within the scope of this study that generates any notable (albeit still very limited with 0.1%) amounts of electricity by means of tidal energy. One of the largest facilities is the Rance Tidal Power station that has been operating for more than 40 years.
The National Renewable Energy Action Plan has a binding target of 23% renewable energy in gross final energy consumption in 2020 (EU target). Feed-in tariffs are used for most renewable energy sources and tender schemes are applied to offshore wind, solar PV (>100 kW), bioenergy (>12 MW) and hydropower. France also introduced the Nitrogen Autonomy Plan in 2013 with the aim to commission 1000 biogas plants until 2020. The amount of PV projects tenders has also been increased.
Figure 35 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in France.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
Figure 36 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in France.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total public power production (%) Waste
Geothermal Ocean Solar Bio Wind
Germany
Germany has a relatively diverse portfolio of renewable power production technologies deployed that steadily increased from 6.6% in 2000 up to 21.8% in 2011. In 2011, large quantities of wind power (8.9%), hydropower (3.1%), bioenergy (5.3%) and solar power (3.5%) were generated. This increase has been brought about by strong support from Government policies such as the feed-in tariff and several finance programmes of the KfW bank. Due to the large and fast deployment of PV (17.5 GW in 2010, 25 GW in 2011, 33 GW in 2012) a cap for PV was introduced in 2012 (52 GW). In addition further measures for accelerated grid expansion were implemented. Installment of offshore wind has partially been slowed by inadequate grid connection.
In 2014 the amendment of the renewable energy act (EEG) was passed that introduced a fixed pathway for renewable power, e.g. a cap of 2.5 GW newly installed capacity per year for onshore wind). Furthermore a pilot auction scheme was indtroduced for ground-mounted PV plants and the aim to introduce auction schemes to other renewable power technologies by 2017 was presented. There is also an obligation for direct marketing of renewable power in order to increase the market integration of renewable power plants.
The deployment of nuclear power facilities has slowly declined from 32% to 25%. In 2011, after the Fukushima accident, the decision was taken to phase out nuclear power stations by 2022 and the eight oldest of the country’s 17 nuclear power plants have already been permanently shut down.
Figure 37 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in Germany.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
Figure 38 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in Germany.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total public power production (%) Waste
Geothermal Ocean Solar Bio Wind
Japan
Japan’s share of nuclear power production fluctuated between 26% and 35% between 2000 and 2010. Following the Fukushima accident in 2011 the share more than halved to 11.3%. Hydropower has the highest share of renewable energy production in Japan. In the past it fluctuated between 7% and 10%, showing a slightly declining trend.
A constant 0.3% of the total public power production originates from geothermal sources. Until 2004 this was, apart from industrial and (renewable) municipal waste combustion, practically the only source of renewable power production. In 2005, a single year increase of primary solid biofuels is observed (from 0 to 0.3%), which remained constant until 2010 due to a lack of policy incentives. In 2011 it counted for 1.0% of the public power production. The Renewable Energy Act of August 2011 and the feed-in tariff scheme introduced in 2012 should have the effect of increasing renewable power production in future. It obliges electricity utilities to purchase power from renewable energy sources at fixed prices. The government has set the target to increase the renewable energy share to 25% by 2020. The post-Fukushima policies are expected to result in huge increases in installed capacity of PV (e.g. from 5 GW in 2011 to >20 GW in 2015). For wind, grid integration may result in constraints. Japan has however strongly increased its feed-in tariff for offshore wind. At the same time Japan reduced its PV tariff by 10% in 2013 and by 11% in 2014.
Figure 39 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 20011 in Japan.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
Figure 40 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 – 2011 in Japan.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total public power production (%) Waste
Geothermal Ocean Solar Bio Wind
Nordic countries (interconnected grid of the Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland) The region traditionally has a low dependence on fossil fuels. During 2000 - 2011, renewable energy generation fluctuated between 51% and 64% of the total public power supply. The main source of electricity is hydropower (Norway, Sweden, Finland), which is generally responsible for more than half of the total public power production, followed by nuclear power (Sweden).
However, the deployment of new wind farms and the use of primary solid biofuels have increased gradually in the past decade to a combined 8.5% for each. Interestingly power production portfolio differs significantly among the different countries of the region:
• Norway is almost completely hydro-powered. In the last decade the share of hydropower has marginally decreased as wind power produced 1% of the public power in 2011. Since Norway has a joint Tradable Green Certificates Scheme with Sweden, the renewables support policy can be found below.
• Denmark became a very large wind (increase from 13% to 30%) and biomass energy 22.2% of total final energy consumption was renewable. Renewable power installations are supported through feed-in premiums with the exception of auctions for offshore wind.
Recentily the premiums for biogas have been increased and loan guarantees and invesmtnet grants for small renewables power installations are in place.
• Finland has about one-third nuclear power, one-fifth hydropower, and in 2011 about 8%
power from biogenic sources. Power from bioenergy shows the largest increase and is a focus for future development. Finland introduced the Second Progress Report with further support policies such as higher wind power tariffs. A feed-in premium is in place for wind, solid biomass and biogas. In terms of wind deployment, Finland is however behind its target which might be caused by lengthy planning and permitting procedures.
• In the past decade, Swedish power has been nuclear and hydro-based (together responsible for more than 88% every year from 2000 – 2011). The past decade, there has been a rapid uptake of the share of power from bio energy and wind of up to 3.1% and 4.2%
respectively. There is a mix of instruments to promote renewable energy including a technology-neutral tradable green certificates scheme. Since the beginning of 2012, this has expanded to create a common market with Norway for these certificates. In 2013 quota levels have been increased and tax exemptions have been introduced for wind energy.
Figure 41 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in the Nordic Countries.
Figure 42 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in the Nordic Countries.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
India
On average, India had a share of 15% hydropower and 3% nuclear power respectively. The share of nuclear power is decreasing, but this is mainly due to the increase in power production in India, i.e. in absolute terms nuclear power production has increased significantly. Public power production increased by 84% from 2000 to 2011. There has also been a steady increase in wind power en bio energy generation of up to 2.5% and 3% respectively. However, the development of electricity transmission infrastructure has been relatively slow and in August 2012 there were wide-scale black outs. This could become an issue for further development of some renewables although there are opportunities for local power provision.
Renewable energy policies have been unstable in all states in the last period. By the end of 2017/2018 (the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period) 9% of the power should be non-hydro renewable, and 12% large hydropower. A renewable portfolio obligation level is set at state level based on a national goal of 15% renewable power by 2020. The government also pledget to increase its renewable power capacity from 25GW in 2012 to 55GW in 2017. Feed-in tariffs are used at state level for different technologies. There is also a renewable power purchase obligation for utilities that can be fulfilled through renewable energy certificates. However, the certificates market has been highly unstable and crashed in summer 2013. There has recently been pressure by the state government of Gujarat to reduce the feed-in tariff rates, but the Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission decided to retain rates. In gernerall, all renewable sources except for biomass plants above 10 MW have dispatch priority.
Table 5 Power generation capacity targets under the Five-Year Plans of India (GW) 11th Plan 2007-2012
Figure 43 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in India.
Figure 44 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in India.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
0.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
United States
The share of nuclear (20% to 22%) and hydropower (5% to 7%) production remained very constant (in absolute terms there have been small increases) over 2000 - 2011. The renewable power generation technologies deployed mostly use intermittent sources such as wind (3%) and next to those, geothermal reservoirs (0.4%) and biofuels (0.5%). Over the period 2000 - 2011, the fastest growth in renewable energy is in wind power. The energy mix and energy prices in the US have been affected significantly in recent years by the availability of relatively cheap shale gas. The incentives for renewable energy depend on the state, as well as the national government.
Although there is no federal target, 29 out of the 50 states (and the District of Columbia) have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) in place. Recently Renewable Portfolio Standards have however been revised in serveral states, altering standards for different technologies or including small-scale installations.The main federal support for renewable power is through fiscal measures (accelerated depreciation schemes, investment and production tax credits).
Figure 45 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in the United States.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
Figure 46 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in the United States.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total public power production (%) Waste
Geothermal Ocean Solar Bio Wind
United Kingdom and Ireland (interconnected grid of the United Kingdom and Ireland) Less than 10% of the total power generation (including fossil power) is produced in Ireland. All nuclear power facilities are located in the UK. These are responsible for about 20% of the total public power produced. In 2011, the share of total renewable power production was 8% with about half from wind turbines. New electricity market reforms announced in 2011, aim to increase the proportion of non-fossil fired power generation. The uncertainty about the details of the reform resulted in lower deployment rates and higher costs of capital for renewables.
Currently there is a technology-specific quota scheme with tradable green certificates as well as a feed-in tariff scheme for small installations. In 2014 the United Kingdom has introduced a so-called Contract for Differences that includes key elements of a feed-in premium scheme.
In Ireland a technology-specific feed-in tariff and tax relief for corporate equity investments are the main policy instruments. Although support levels are comparatively low, onshore wind is the dominant technology being applied. This is due to the high electricity market price and the good wind sites with low generation costs.
The share of nuclear power production shows a drop in 2008 and increase in the subsequent year. Recently the UK has decided to build several new nuclear plants that will be financed through the Contract for Difference scheme.
Figure 47 Share of renewable and nuclear power production during 2000 - 2011 in the UK and Ireland.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Development of total public power production relative to the year 2000
Share in total public power production (%)
Waste
= total public power production relative to year 2000
Figure 48 Share of renewable power production (excluding hydropower) during 2000 - 2011 in the UK and Ireland.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total public power production (%) Waste
Geothermal Ocean Solar Bio Wind
4 Conclusions
Fossil-fired power generation is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and is responsible for approximately one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The main purpose of this study is to compare fossil-fired power generation efficiency for several countries over the period 1990 – 2011. A distinction is made between different energy carriers (coal, oil, gas and fossil in general) and the countries taken into account comprise: Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Nordic countries7, South Korea, United Kingdom and Ireland, and the United States. In total, the abovementioned regions and countries were responsible for 68% of the public worldwide fossil-fired power generation in 2011.
Secondly, the CO2 intensity and CO2 reduction potential of public power production is determined for these countries and Canada and Italy.
Finally, the development of the share of renewables in the public power mix in 2000-2011, distinguishing the different renewable energy sources, has also been investigated.
In this study two approaches are applied for benchmarking energy efficiency: (1) by using non-weighted average efficiencies and (2) by using non-weighted average efficiencies by countries’
electricity generation. Although the exact numbers for the two approaches differ, the general results, in terms of which countries are most efficient, are roughly the same.
On average in the period 2009-2011, the benchmark for fossil power based on weighted average efficiencies shows that the Nordic countries had a 10% higher weighted fossil efficiency, followed by the United Kingdom and Ireland (+9%), Japan, Germany, South Korea (all in the range of +9% to +7%) and the United States (+3%). China, Australia and France all perform within +1%
to -6% compared to the benchmark, while India has the lowest performance (-21%).
For the period 1990-2011 the following can be concluded when considering the weighted average efficiencies for the studied countries:
Gas-fired power: the efficiency shows a strong increase from 39% to 48% in 2011 (average annual improvement of 1.1%). The reason for this improvement is mainly the large amount of (more efficient) new generating capacity; gas-fired power generation increased by +241%.
Coal-fired power: only a very minor increase in efficiency is observed of 34% to 35%
(average annual improvement of 0.1%). The reason for this is that a large part of the growth in coal-fired power generation takes place in China and India, where efficiencies of coal plants remained relatively low by 2011 (despite a significant increase of +7%pts over 1990 – 2011 in the case of China). Power generation increased by +136%.
7 Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway aggregated
Oil-fired power: The use of oil for power production has declined drastically over the
Oil-fired power: The use of oil for power production has declined drastically over the