For the selection of the policy options as mentioned in the general section of the Omnibus project, the eligibility criteria formulated in the Ecodesign directive are relevant in order to decide whether or not the existing Ecodesign regulation should be terminated (option 2) and they are an important element in determining the expected performance when maintaining the existing regulation without any changes (option 1). Furthermore, the possibility of self-regulation (option 3) was investigated.
Economic significance 6.2.1
According to a recent CLASP analysis118, which is based on the projections from the 2009 preparatory study as well as more recent market data from the European industry association Lighting Europe, around 1.5 billion NDLS were being sold in the EU-27 in 2010. CLASP estimates that around 4.4 billion lamps are being installed in that same year.
Over the period 2010-2030 the number of lamps per household can be expected to follow the usual upwards trend, but nonetheless the sales will decrease significantly as the incandescent bulbs with a short service life (1000 h) will be replaced by other lamp types with a (much) higher service life, such as halogens (2000h), compact fluorescents (6000h) and LEDs (>20 000h).
Although the CLASP analysis is approximate and can be improved, the order of magnitude is certainly enough to state that NDLS still represents –also in 2030-- an economically significant product group in the sense of Article 15 a) of the Ecodesign Directive.
Environmental significance 6.2.2
In the 2009 preparatory study and impact analysis, the most significant environmental impact of NDLS was found to be the energy use during operation. The mercury content of CFLs was mentioned as another relevant impact, but –as mentioned in the 2009 impact analysis—the total mercury balance of CFLs, weighing mercury content of the lamp versus diminished mercury emissions from lower electricity consumption, is also linked in a positive way to energy saving during operation.
CLASP developed a BAU (‘Business-as-Usual’) Scenario which shows a rapid decline in the remaining special- purpose incandescent lamp shipments, reaching zero by 2021. CLASP assumptions were that
• Halogen becomes a popular replacement for incandescent, however it starts to decline around 2015 and trends downward in response to Stage 6 in September 2016 which requires halogen lamps to achieve energy label B rating.
• CFLs peak in 2012 and then decline as the most suitable sockets for CFLs will then have long-life CFLs installed and consumers are expected not to fully embrace the technology due to warm-up time, mercury content and other issues.
• LEDs start to gain market-share, surpassing CFLs on a unit basis in 2015 and halogens in 2017.
• However, LEDs are very long life, thus once installed the socket is not available for replacement in the domestic setting for approximately 20 years – leading to peak in LED replacement lamp sales around 2020 and a gradual decline and levelling off by 2030 at around 200 million unit LED lamp sales per annum.
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CLASP, Estimating potential additional energy savings from upcoming revisions to existing regulations under the ecodesign and energy labelling directives -a contribution to the evidence base-, supported by eceee, 18 February 2013
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The outcome of the analysis indicates that, in a baseline scenario with the existing legislation, the total electricity consumption would decrease from 112 TWh in 2010 to around 80 TWh in 2025-2030.
Table 6-1. Projected Sales, Stock and BAU Energy Consumption to 2030, Non-Directional Household Lamps
EU-27 projection 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sales (million units) 1 485.0 1 036.7 883.0 522.3 380.7
Stock (million units) 4 377.0 4 580.2 4 927.7 5 201.7 5 556.2
Stock annual energy consumption BAU, (TWh)
111.92 106.82 89.07 81.49 79.56
In 2010 this means that NDLS constituted 4% of total final electricity demand in the EU27. This is comparable to the electricity consumption of a country like The Netherlands. In 2030, depending how the total electricity consumption in the EU develops, it will be slightly less –perhaps 3% (c.p.)-- but still very significant.
Saving potential 6.2.3
The energy savings scenarios developed by CLASP for non-directional household lamps all assume that new ecodesign regulations come into effect in two steps – a Tier 1 requirement with an EEI of 0.24 (energy label class A) and a Tier 2 requirement with an EEI of 0.17 (energy label class A+). The difference between the scenarios is essentially the timing of when the regulation becomes effective. These scenarios are based on the assumption that LED technology will be diverse, compatible and offer performance equivalent to products servicing these lighting applications today.
Table 6-2. Three Illustrative Policy Scenarios for Non-Directional Lamps (CLASP 2012)
Scenario Ecodesign
1 Tier 1 at EEI ≤ 0.24 from 2019 Tier 2 at EEI ≤ 0.17 from 2022 2 Tier 1 at EEI ≤ 0.24 from 2018 Tier 2 at EEI ≤ 0.17 from 2021 3 Tier 1 at EEI ≤ 0.24 from 2017 Tier 2 at EEI ≤ 0.17 from 2020
Table 6-3. Table 3. Projected Annual Energy Savings to 2030, Scenarios 1-3, Non-Directional Household Lamps (CLASP 2012)
Scenario 2010 (TWh/yr) 2015 (TWh/yr) 2020 (TWh/yr) 2025 (TWh/yr) 2030 (TWh/yr) Scenario 1 - - 12.4 21.3 16.0 Scenario 2 - 0.1 18.6 22.9 17.4 Scenario 3 - 0.1 25.2 24.1 18.6
CLASP mentions that across the EU, non-directional household lamps are projected to consume 89.1 TWh of electricity in 2020. The energy savings estimate from Scenario 2 is 18.6 TWh in that year, or approximately
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21% of the baseline. By 2030, the baseline energy consumption is 79.6 TWh of electricity and the energy savings estimate from Scenario 2 is 17.4 TWh, or 22% of the baseline.
On the technological progress CLASP states that halogen technology has some room for improvement through the use of infrared reflective coatings, low voltages and improvements to halogen capsules. CFLs are only expected to experience minor improvements in performance, as they are already a mature technology and are not the focus of any significant research and development investment. LED technology, on the other hand, is the subject of large research investments, on every aspect of an LED lamp, from chip and package-level improvements through to the LED driver and optical performance. However, CLASP mentions that ‘LED technology.. currently relies on rare earths and other precious material, and future research should investigate the possibility of increasing material efficacy.’
The table below combines the efficacy figures with the MV LED retrofit (500 lumen) price projections by lighting manufacturer’s association LightingEurope up to 2020 and –estimated by VHK—a plausible extrapolation of these prices up to 2025.
Table 6-4Technological progress Mains-voltage LED retrofit lamp, efficacy and price projections EU
Year 2012 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 202 1 202 2 202 3 202 4 202 5 2030 lm/W 58 93 99 105 112 118 125 130 134 138 142 169 price in € 18.0 10. 0 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 2.5
(sources: for efficacy CLASP 2013, based on US DoE MYPP projections; for EU lamp consumer prices incl. VAT (500 lm lamp) up to 2020 LightingEurope; 2021-2030 prices, extrapolation VHK)
New technologies that should increase the LED efficacy include
• Improvement of diode source efficacy through new materials/alloys to increase initial lumen output. Especially, in the interest of producing high efficacy RGD LEDs, there is a new focus on the luminous efficacy of the Red (R) and Green (G) LEDs that reportedly are lagging behind the Blue/UV (B) LEDs. The losses of the colour mixing optics remain an important subject for optimisation. Latest R&D efforts show an increased effort in hybrid LEDs, a mix of both phosphor-converted and discrete monochromatic LEDs.
• Optimisation of phosphors and phosphor combinations in white and hybrid LEDs to lower optical and Planck losses, while improving colour rendering. Also the lay-out and geometry of the phosphor layer versus the diode is a subject of optimisation. At the same time there are attempts to get rid of the phosphors, and the rare earth materials contained therein, which have a significant environmental impact an constitute a risk in terms of security of supply. Start-up firms are looking into possible alternatives (e.g. silicon nanoparticles).
• Driver efficiency, longevity and provisions for dimmability (see par. 4.2.1). In this respect, one of the more interesting studies –although it is too early to tell whether this will ever become economical in a broad sense-- relate to the combination of LEDs and driver electronics on the same wafer.
These are just the a few new technologies in general purpose LED lighting that are currently explored. In a wider context, the combination of starting from laser light and phosphors –such as in the recent PHASER® technology used in image projection and light guidance—might in the long term be an interesting direction.
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It is outside the limited scope of this omnibus-study to give a detailed technical discussion of all developments. For a more comprehensive review, available in the public domain, the authors refer to the publications of the US Department of Energy on Solid State Lighting.119
Self-regulation 6.2.4
As with all products discussed in this omnibus review self-regulation is the preferred option, if all criteria are met. However, as with other products, the industry has not offered, nor has it indicated any intention to offer in the near future, to engage in self-regulation that would meet the required criteria.
Preliminary conclusions 6.2.5
The conclusions from the three preceding paragraphs are that
a) The baseline projections show that over the period up to 2030 the current legislation (the BAU scenario) is effective in reaching another 32 TWh of energy saving and thus Option 2, termination of the existing legislation, can be discarded;
b) Industry has not taken any initiative regarding self-regulation; hence Option 3 can be discarded. c) The preliminary energy scenarios show that an additional saving potential of around 20% of the
baseline, around 18 TWh annually in 2020 and 2030, would still be feasible through more ambitious Ecodesign requirements. Hence it is worthwhile to investigate Option 4, i.e. determine whether revised requirements can be designed that meet the boundary conditions of the Ecodesign Directive regarding Least Life Cycle Costs, acceptable Payback Periods, no significant negative impacts and then still generate energy savings that will exceed those of the baseline (Option 1) .