FLUJOS DE REFERENCIAS

Having explained how the thesis approaches the issue of Europeanisation by conditionality and democratic consolidation against the background of national diversity, this section studies the relationship between these two processes. In fact, research on the previous enlargement has brought about varying conclusions on the relationship between Europeanisation by conditionality and democratic consolidation. While generally recognising the generally positive dynamics between conditionality and democratic consolidation, literature also puts forward several aspects in which the dynamics between these two processes are conflicting. With respect to the former, the EU’s conditionality has been generally considered to have a lock-in effect of liberal forces after the overthrow of authoritarian governments (Vachudova, 2005). Pridham (2005) has further argued that “the EU has had together with the Council of Europe and the OSCE a positive impact over minority rights in the sense that otherwise progress here would have been slighter not least because of societal if not cultural barriers” (p.225).

Still it has been recognised that “negative impacts could also occur notwithstanding the official commitment of Brussels to furthering democratic consolidation in Central & Eastern Europe” (Pridham, 2005 p.226). For example, Grabbe argues that policy choices are technocratic rather than political issues, leading to a deficit of democratic accountability in the whole process (Grabbe, 2001). On the latter aspect, Pridham criticizes the favouring of the executive institutions over the parliament as well as the exporting of the EU democratic deficit in these countries (Pridham, 2006). Innes claims that the EU accession process “could have a debilitating effect, arresting party developments by excluding from political competition those substantive, grass-roots, ideological policy conflicts around which Western Europe systems evolved” (Innes, 2002 p.101). These findings confirm the warnings of the general literature on Europeanisation regarding the intended and unintended consequences of conditionality (Grabbe, 2006 p.49). On a similar note, Radaelli (2000) classifies the extent and direction of Europeanisation in four groups: inertia, absorption, transformation and retrenchment. The last dimension is in fact an instance where the policy may backslide or may be opposed by domestic groups.

Specifically, in relation to conditionality and national minority policies, Sasse argues that the impact can range from gradual legal changes and ethno political participation in government and opposition to a deepening of structural segregation and an increase in political polarisation (2009 p.17). Using this classification as guidance Sasse comes to the following conclusion:

an intense and highly visible international involvement in a politicized issue (or one aspect of them) can produce an overlay of contradictory outcomes: a legal change can hide deeper political or societal problems which might, in fact, have become ingrained in the context of the EU’s involvement (2009 p.28).

Similarly, Noutcheva et al (2004) in relation to Europeanisation in post-conflict societies specifically warn against the creation of a “superficial layer of common institutions and policy coordination mechanisms which would exist for the purpose of satisfying EU requirements, but would not enjoy domestic support” (p.26). Having in mind the role of organised minority interests in the countries studied, it is also significant to note the experience from the Eastern enlargement, which shows that “political participation of an ethnic minority party and ethnic power-sharing, encouraged though not caused by the EU’s minority condition, can thus prove stabilizing during one stage of the transition process and destabilizing during another” (Sasse, 2009 p.27).

This variety of outcomes of conditionality (including unintended ones) supports the findings of research on the potentially destabilizing effects of the involvement of international organisations in national minority policies. Although earlier research on this topic was not framed specifically in the context of Europeanisation, the mechanisms at work are largely the same. In this sense, Tesser (2003) in her research concludes that although international organisations with significant leverage can lessen the potential of conflict, the external pressure in this area “can have at least two downsides that diminish the effectiveness in lessening the political salience of identity” (p.493). First, the pressure could result in superficial minority protection lacking domestic support and secondly, the presence of these standards can unintentionally encourage ethnic groups to define themselves as national thus creating greater majority-minority frictions (Tesser, 2003).

Moreover, the relationship between these processes in the Balkans is qualitatively different, because of the extended requirements of the EU, significant democratisation obstacles as well as “severe Communist legacy and

systemic problems” (Pridham, 2007 p.454). For Pridham (2007), “this would suggest both more demands on conditionality (thus challenging its limitations) but also potentially more opportunities” (p.455). In the case of the Western Balkans this risk is even higher since the EU has moved further down the path of domestic politics by assessing the national political scene and the relations between the local political actors (See Pridham, 2007). Literature links this attitude with the role the EU has acquired through the brokering of peace-deals in Bosnia and Macedonia especially (Anastasakis and Bechev, 2003). In light of this Chandler (2008) argues that “EU member state-building in the Western Balkans is a clear example of the dangers of the liberal peace approach to post-conflict situations” (p.529). In his work, Chandler (2008) is highly critical of the role of the EU in the Western Balkans arguing that “the externally driven nature of the policy process means that political elites seek to lobby external EU actors rather than engage in domestic constituency-building” (p.529). Contrary to Chandler, O’Brennan (2008) argues that that “the policy being pursued by Brussels is consistent with the expectations of the ‘normative power Europe’ approach to enlargement” (p.508). Similarly, Manners (2002) argues that the EU is a power with normative quality, which should act to extend its norms into the international system (p.252). Although this research will not deal with the role of the EU as a normative power in the Balkans, it recognizes that there have been instances when the EU’s involvement raises concern for the democratic consolidation of these societies. Recognising the potential of EU conditionality, this research will examine the implications of this instrument for the democratic consolidation of Croatia and Macedonia.

Having in mind the above presented debates on Europeanisation, conditionality and democratic consolidation, this thesis extends the findings of the literature on the Eastern enlargement by studying the role of the EU in shaping national minority policies in Croatia and Macedonia. It examines the construction, application and implementation of conditionality in relation to national minority policies over a fifteen year period in order to grasp the consistency and change in conditionality and the role of both the EU and national actors in the operations of this mechanism. Due to the lack of acquis in this policy area, the research studies how the EU has used the FCNM and national legislation in the stipulation of conditionality, focusing on the consistency and change of the criteria. Recognising that national minority policies are crucial for the democratic consolidation of the countries studied, the thesis ultimately reflects on the relationship between

Europeanisation by conditionality and democratic consolidation. Doing so, it specifically builds upon recent research which has indicated the potential of increased inter-ethnic polarisation through the EU’s involvement in this policy area. As such, it underlines the unwanted effects of EU conditionality in relation to democratic consolidation in the conditions of diversity in post-communism.