Following the method described in §4.3.2, the results of running the CPM algorithm and calculating the diversity of the resulting communities are summarized in table 4-2.
Table 4-2. Summary of diversity analysis over time
Based on this table, the cumulative network of 191 projects forms 52 cliques (figure 4-1), and the CPM is able to aggregate these cliques into 14 communities, with a substantial jump in the last year from 4 to 14. This relatively high increase is reflected in the network diversity as well (figure 4-2), where by calculating diversity the effective number of distinct trajectory oscillates between 1 and 2 with a relatively high increase (48%) in the last year from 1.33 to 1.97. It implies a possible structural change in the network by the launch of new projects that show a relatively high value of clustering within themselves and independence from the existing network. This special case is discussed later in §4.4.3. Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Projects 1 2 3 5 14 28 43 74 115 148 191 Cliques 0 0 0 1 1 3 7 18 24 36 52 Richness (communities) 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 14 Evenness 0 0 0 1 1 0.77 0.83 0.94 0.60 0.59 0.62 Disparity 0 0 0 1 1 0.77 0.57 0.38 0.62 0.56 0.23 Diversity 0 0 0 1 1 1.18 1.42 1.44 1.12 1.33 1.97
111
Figure 4-1. Number of projects versus cliques Figure 4-2. Number of communities versus diversity
In the next sections, the structural components in the main path and different trajectories are presented and the underlying streams of knowledge are discussed. 4.4.2.1 Structure of the main path
In the very early years of knowledge development in smart grid projects over the period of analysis, the main path begins by around projects developing solutions for integration of distributed energy systems and large-scale renewable energy sources (figure 4-3). To be more specific, the path shapes around methodologies and frameworks for the integration of renewable energy to the grid, including the development of methods, tools and control mechanism for the integration of distributed energy systems and renewable energy sources (Dispower), investigating the technical and non-technical barriers of distributed energy deployment (EU-Deep) and analyzing the contribution of distributed energy sources to the power system (Fenix). These focal projects also link the integration of renewable sources to aggregation technologies and solutions, and starts two variations in the main path, as discussed later.
In terms of renewable and distributed energy sources, wind energy is the primary focus of the main stream of R&D activities in the early years. Projects form around issues such as the large-scale integration of wind farms (Windgrid), forecasting methods and uncertainty analysis for wind generation (Safewind) and collaboration between wind generation companies and Transmission System Operators for wind integration (EWIS). The last project opens a new avenue for the emergence of TSO-coordinated activities, a trajectory discussed in §4.4.3. These projects were followed by more market-oriented research projects such as market design for wind and solar energies at the European level (ReServices) and validating markets designed to integrate flexible power generations regionally dispersed (Optimate).
112
These developments are followed by developing conceptual and technical frameworks for increasing user participation, along with the possibility of using information and communication technologies (ICT) for different purposes. Of special importance are two central projects; the first one (ADDRESS), aims to develop commercial and technical frameworks for active demand (AD) by investigating the triggers of actor participation from domestic and commercial markets. It is the pioneer for shaping a trajectory based on demand side management and user participation. The second project (SEESGEN-ICT) investigates the options to accelerate the introduction of ICT to smart distribution grid and formulates different scenarios and policy options. It opens new opportunities for systemic and integrated ICT-based solutions, and natural development of the path towards more practical applications of ICT in the energy system.
In the last years of our analysis, the focus of the central activities in the main path shifts towards involvement of ICT actors in the dynamics of the smart energy system and providing solutions based on the new IT infrastructure. On one hand, ICT-enabled applications such as electric mobility and electric vehicles (EV) are investigated through developing frameworks for impact analysis of large-scale EV introduction (G4V) and more systemic issues such as interoperability of interfaces along with the development of new business models (IOE). On the other hand, focusing on standards for ICT-based innovations and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) as the requirement for integrating ICT-enabled solutions (Open Meter) highlights the importance of restructuring the infrastructure to exploit the benefits of smart grid. On the other hand, facilitating collaboration between actors from the energy sector and ICT firms to co- define new solutions and standards (Finseny) addresses the necessity of collaboration between incumbent firms and newcomers.
Figure 4-3. The hubs in the main path of smart grid development
Figure 4-3 summarizes the main stream of knowledge development, explaining the natural path of R&D activities towards maturation. Integration of large-scale and
113
distributed renewable energy sources to the grid was the first motivation behind R&D activities. These initiatives were followed by solutions for improving the infrastructure to optimize the demand and supply sides of the system through smart network management, and analyzing the introduction of ICT infrastructure. Finally, analyzing advanced solutions and applications, along with developing standards and interoperability measures are necessary to exploit the potential benefits provided by the smart energy system. These focal activities create variations in the main path, depicted as the knowledge diffusion trajectories presented in the next section.