This section examines offences against property, which were seen in Chapter 7 to account for approximately one-third of all apprehensions in Western Australia between 1994 and 2002, being the second largest of the five offence categories considered in the cohort analysis.
9.1.1 Male Apprehension Trends
From Figure 9.1.1.1, age-specific apprehension ratios per 100 males for offences against property are lower, and generally decline, for each successively older cohort, providing evidence for the (conceptual) age-crime pattern. However, some departures from the pattern are evident. These departures are significant for the cohort born 1969-72, but substantial for the cohorts born 1957-60, 1961-64 and 1965-68, and minor for the cohort born 1973-76. These findings are all indicated for the period corresponding to 1998-2002, but the variability in the level of departure across cohorts means that any period effect has not been a common period effect (such as a change in policing strategies or reporting levels that would have affected all cohorts).
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1 8 -21 2 2 -25 2 6 -29 3 0 -33 3 4 -37 3 8 -41 4 2 -45 Year of Birth R a ti o 1977-80 1973-76 1969-72 1965-68 1961-64 1957-60 1953-56
Source: ABS (2005a), CRC (1995-2003).
Figure 9.1.1.1: Male Western Australian Apprehensions, Offences Against Property: Ratio at
Each Age (’00), by Birth Cohort, 1994-2002.
The significant departure for the cohort born 1969-72 (an increase in ratios of 16 per cent between age 26-29 and 30-33 years), for example, may be related to its relatively large size and disadvantageous conditions occurring in the labour market as it reached labour market entry age (explained in Chapter 8). That is, the finding for the cohort born 1969-72 is suggestive of the possible lingering effects of that encounter, causing the cohort to extend – as opposed to leaving behind – its participation in criminal activity. This is reflective of Easterlin’s (1987a) arguments concerning cohort density (i.e. size and internal competition), and suggests that high cohort density has been a source of variance to the age-crime pattern as it relates to male apprehension trends for offences against property.
On the other hand, the cohort born 1973-76 – a lagging edge cohort that was also large in size and entered the labour market at a time of high unemployment rates (as discussed in Chapter 8) – appears to have experienced only a minor departure from the age-crime pattern. That is, there is a deceleration in the rate of decline between ages 22-25 and 26-29 years. Thus, the cohort born 1973-76 does not present evidence of continuing with criminal activity past the young-crime ages to any great degree, as
does the cohort born 1969-72, and so the impact of high cohort density (if that is the cause) is variable.
Indeed, the cohorts born 1957-60, 1961-64, and 1965-68 – which have each experienced lower levels of cohort density than the ‘baby bust’ cohorts (as discussed in the previous chapter in relation to female apprehension trends) – have digressed from the age-crime pattern at a higher level than the cohort born 1973-76. These findings detract a little from support for the cohort density expression, and illustrate that digressions from the age-crime pattern are not caused solely by high cohort density.
9.1.2 Female Apprehension Trends
Age-specific apprehension trends for females in relation to offences against property similarly reflect the age-crime pattern, as ratios (per 100 females) have generally been higher for younger cohorts than older cohorts (Figure 9.1.2.1). A consistent rate of decline, however, is indicated for only two cohorts (born 1961-64 and 1965-68). Rather, significant departures are indicated for the cohorts born 1957-60, 1969-72 and 1973-76 (although this finding for the former may be a reflection of its low base). Therefore, only some cohort-specific apprehension trends run counter to the age-crime pattern, so it is more likely that the above-noted departures reflect a cohort effect resulting in an extended period of participation in criminal activity as opposed to a common period effect.
Findings for the cohorts born 1969-72 and 1973-76 (relating to respective increases in ratios of 23 per cent between ages 26-29 and 30-33 years, and 11 per cent between ages 22-25 and 26-29 years), may, as discussed in Chapter 8, be related to their relatively distended size and to intra- and inter-cohort competition in the labour market. That is, stress associated with these lifetime experiences may, for both birth cohorts, have translated into a heightened involvement with this offence category as the birth cohorts aged.
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1 8 -21 2 2 -25 2 6 -29 3 0 -33 3 4 -37 3 8 -41 4 2 -45 Year of Birth R a ti o 1977-80 1973-76 1969-72 1965-68 1961-64 1957-60 1953-56
Source: ABS (2005a), CRC (1995-2003).
Figure 9.1.2.1: Female Western Australian Apprehensions, Offences Against Property:
Ratio at Each Age (‘00), by Birth Cohort, 1994-2002.
In this respect, Easterlin’s expectations concerning the association between birth cohort size (and their associated life experiences) and crime are strongly supported by female apprehensions for offences against property (and more so than for equivalent male cohorts). Similarly, the findings (again) demonstrate that high cohort density is a potential cause of variance in an otherwise invariant age-crime pattern. In other words, Figure 9.1.2.1 reflects anticipated age effects (apprehension ratios declining with age), and, in the absence of any common period effects, the only (clear) variation in the age-crime pattern emerging from this aspect of the analysis reflects cohorts effects for the baby bust cohorts (and hence, high levels of cohort density).