A question about whether more or less child labor should be anticipated in the carpet industry in India in the future involved speculation about future economic trends. The question would have been much easier if the industry had shown a consistent trend in production or employment. Unfortunately, the research (2009-2011) was carried out at a time when the global economy and the Indian national industry were in a slump. A large number of carpet factories were found to have closed, and a number of listed CEPC members had left the industry. However, the project was able to collect information about trends in production technology and the use of labor that might predict future trends in child labor in the carpet industry.
5.3.1. CHANGES IN CONSUMERS’TASTES
Many carpet exporters complained about a factor that had affected their sales and was affecting the technology of producing carpets. Carpet exporters believed that many western consumers were no longer looking for a permanent carpet that had historic and craft value and was very durable. The exporters stated that western consumers were looking for disposable carpets that fit a current color and decorating scheme. When the consumer decided to switch color schemes in a room, everything that did not match that color (including handmade carpets) would be discarded. For that reason, the consumers were looking for cheaper carpets and did not care that they were also less durable.
5.3.2. CHANGES IN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY AND CHILDREN’S WORK
The traditional technology for producing handmade carpets is weaving on a hand loom. The most durable technique is called hand-knotting because it involves the weaver tying knots in the thread after every pass. Weaving carpets, especially hand-knotting, is a slow process due to the labor that was involved. Children are utilized in many activities during the production of carpets from the wool processing through to the final finishing, but children are most commonly used to weave (or hand-knot) carpets.
95 Household-based carpet production is well-suited for hand-knotted carpets. The HH receives an order for a carpet and, over weeks or months, produces the carpet. The members of the HH fit the weaving in with other HH tasks, and children, for example, may go to school and still put in some hours weaving during non-school hours. As long as carpets are being produced by weaving or hand-knotting, there will be a ready use for child labor in the HH.
Exporters in India have shifted much of their production to other techniques such as tufting and hand-looming, which produce less durable carpets much quicker. These technologies fit better with factory-based production in which the workers work full workdays. The shift away from hand-knotting also entails shifting away from household-based production and a consequent drop in the use of child labor in households to produce carpets.
5.3.3. SHIFTING FROM HOUSEHOLD-BASED TO SHED-BASED PRODUCTION
There was an apparent shift of carpet production away from carpet HHs to Level 2 carpet factories. The shift appeared to be driven by exporters, who had reasons for preferring factory- based carpet production to HH-based production. Factory-based production is faster, and quality control is easier in a factory setting.
One primary reason was the speed of production. Sheds were better for faster production. Carpet HHs did not focus solely on producing carpets. Weaving was intermingled with other HH activities, and HH members weaved carpets when not occupied with other tasks. The factories had a single focus, and factory workers worked long hours every day. Even if the factories produced hand-knotted carpets, the carpets were produced much faster than if they had been sent to carpet HHs.
A related reason was the shift in production techniques. Many of the new sheds concentrated on tufting and hand-looming. Hand-looms were large and expensive, and no one was going to install one in a HH. In the core areas, all the hand-looms that the project staff observed were in newly constructed Level 2 sheds that had been built specifically to house the hand-looms. Tufting was done on a simple inexpensive frame that could fit anywhere, but one of the advantages of tufting was the speed, which would be diminished if consigned to a HH.
Another reason was the modern emphasis on new designs and colors. Manufacturer exporters had their own design staffs. Since there was competition, there was real concern about keeping their original designs and colors secret. Distributing the orders to contractors who distributed them to scattered carpet HHs meant that the exporters had no control over the security. Sheds allowed manufacturers to safeguard their designs. That secrecy and security was a reason given by exporters as to why they would not allow the research team to enter their factories.
96 Closely related was the issue of supervising and controlling the quality of the carpet. Sheds allowed manufacturers to produce higher quality (quality control) because they were able to supervise and monitor production day by day. When orders went out to the carpet HHs, there was little if any monitoring or supervision. The exporter or manufacturer did not learn whether there were problems until the carpets were completed and delivered. At that stage, the carpets were sometimes rejected and other times had to be repaired. In the factory, the exporter or manufacturer could monitor production more closely and correct any errors quickly.
The trend back to factory production had implications for the number and prevalence of working children, migrant children, and child labor. The great majority of children working in the carpet industry were living and working with their families in carpet HHs. If the trend diminished the demand for HH-based carpets, the children in those carpet HHs might work less. A contrary thought is that such a drop in demand would affect the income of some carpet HHs and might trigger some of those families to send their children to work in carpet factories. An upsurge in factory-based production would attract migrant workers, including children.