Instrumentos

As the world enters the third decade of AIDS, it is becoming clearer than e ver that this is the most devastating disease humanity has ever faced. In this section, an in -depth study of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the economy and politics of the country will be discussed.

2.6.1 On the economy

During the time of crisis in the 14^th century with the Black Death, it was the economy that eventually saved the day. However, this did not come about without major restructuring of the economy itself, which led to a process of innovation and technological upgrading.

If the economy is to survive, the business sector will have to understand the fundamental difference between the way in which government

perceives HIV/AIDS and the way in which business ought to approach the disease.

Government perceives HIV/AIDS as a disease that affects people. The private sector will have to understand HIV/AIDS as a disease that impacts on the effective functioning of systems. HIV/AIDS endangers the business environment, for it impacts on systems which business needs to prosper, namely education, health, law and order, transport etc. In this regard, UNAIDS maintains that the HIV/AIDS epidemic is exacerbating an

impending famine in Southern Africa that endangers the lives of some 12 million people. Many of th ose infected are agricultural workers.

City Press, December 1 (2002:1) indicates that seven million agricultural workers in 25 African countries have died of AIDS since 1985. In 2001 alone, AIDS killed nearly 500 000 people in the six predominantly

agricultural countries threatened with famine, most of whom were in their productive prime.

The following table indicates how the work place is affected by HIV/AIDS.

Table:2.1 AIDS-RELATED ABSENTEEISM

Source: Deloitte & Touche

The table above shows that AIDS in the work place surveyed by Deloitte &

Touche Human Capital Corporation also finds that many companies doubt the epidemic will have much effect on them. There is a slow but

disturbingly consistent increase in absenteeism and sick and compassionate leave due to HIV/AIDS. The higher sick leave and

compassionate leave figures signal that the work place is already affected severely by the pandemic. That on its own weakens the economy of the country.

A v e r a g e % 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1

1 0

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

S i c k L e a v e C o m p a s s i o n a t e L e a v e

The other side of the coin is, even the industries like financial services, where HIV -prevalence is estimated to be lower than in the general

population, there cannot be complacency . The World Bank Report (May 2002) states that the present cost for HIV/AIDS to the private sector have already been calculated. Within the mining industry the projected costs of the disease is considered between US$4 and $10 for each ounced mine according to Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS. Recent company

statements indicated that each HIV-infected worker would cost the company between R16 000 and R24 000 per year. This just provides for the anti-retroviral medicines and regular accompanying blood tests. The cost of this can be between R40 and R20 000 per blood test. As the HIV/AIDS pandemic removes the skilled workers a nd expertise from the work force, there is at present, little proof that the education system will be in a position to replace the work force. The implication is that the private sector will have to train and maintain its own workforce. This is also true for issues such as security, transport, standards in the industry, etc. As the burden of HIV/AIDS on society increases up to 2010, the private sector will have to increase its expertise and skills, for without the latter, it will not be possible to secure any foreign market.

A change in the market will be unavoidable.

Eventually the impact of HIV/AIDS will also determine the direction of markets and the economic face of the subcontinent. Government’s political agenda determines more trade between South Africa and her neighbours.

The impact of HIV/AIDS forecasts a smaller market in the region, less production and lower standards of products. The implication is that business will have to start searching for new markets outside Sub-Saharan Africa if it wishes to survive.

A broad-based regional economic development will become problematic and will bring the future of NEPAD into question. Certain rich markets will be available where specific industries have the capacity to generate foreign

income such as the diamond industry in Botswana, oil in Angola and minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These industries can be mechanised and foreign workers (expertise) imported as the need may arise. Coffee and tea producing countries may face severe problems for the hands to pick the crop may just not be available. The following table gives a projection of the number of deaths that may occur among adults in the same time period (1990-2010).

Table: 2.2

RSA: Forecast adult mortality rates with and without AIDS.

The above table shows the impact of HIV/AIDS on different age groups in South Africa. One of the major groups that will be affected will be the relatively young -economically-active group of people aging 35 – 40, the future economic base of the country. With possibly hundreds of thousands of deaths per year occurring, an incredible strain will be placed on the state and employer organisations throughout the economy.

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This view is supported by Togni (1997:38) who maintains that the mining industry is dependent upon labour from both the rural areas of South Africa and a number of neighbouring African countries, where the

HIV/AIDS prevalence is the highest in the world. This could be a source of infected labour. Should full-blown AIDS develop, the labourers could become a financial and medical burden on the resources of the nation.

Another factor of concern is that the HIV/AIDS-infection is apparently advancing to all levels of South African society. This could result in the infection of skilled labour, which is both difficult and costly to replace. If this group of the population is affected to the extent suggested by the predictions, the resulting loss of production will cause a negative growth rate or significant loss of productivity.

2.6.2 On politics

In the above discussion, it was indicated how this silent and heartless killer that knows no discrimination, impact on the economy of the country. Below, information will share light on how the politics of our country is affected.

Everyday 15000 people become newly infected with HIV and 95 percent of these infections occur in developing countries. There is a growing

consensus that an AIDS vaccine is the best long-term hope to control the disease in developing countries.

The impact of HIV/AIDS on politics and the political process will probably be the most difficult for South Africans to accept. At present, government is the biggest employer in the country and will therefore be most affected by the impact of HIV/AIDS.

HIV/AIDS does not only a ffect people as a disease, but it weakens functioning systems and causes them to fail. Government’s focus

presently is on the prevention of the disease among the broad public and the treatment of infected people. The protection and strengthening of functioning government systems is not yet an issue in the fight against HIV/AIDS. Government is slowly being smothered by the disease -load in this process and government is losing credibility. Politicians are now paying the price for their indifference to the HIV versus AIDS debate a few years ago. The price they are going to pay in years ahead is political dis-empowerment. There will be a parliamentary majority, but an inability to govern a unique situation in the world.

To this connection, City Press, Decembe r 1 (2002:xii) emphasized the following: “Government has a key role to play in making South Africa an AIDS-ready country and Fedusa believes the government needs to act more swiftly and with greater resolve in combating the spread of the virus.

Government must openly acknowledge the results of the recent statistics in South African reports and accept HIV/AIDS is one of the main causes of death in our country”.

The nature of politics in South Africa could change as a result of this.

Politics could become irrelevant to a large extent. The demographic implosion of society will change the profile of the electorate and of the political parties. It is doubtful whether political parties will be able to survive in their present form with party dogma, leadership and electorate.

This is going to be a unique and new phenomenon in the modern world and therefore difficult to understand and manage.

The process will be frightening and it will change the face of Africa. South Africa will not completely collapse as society, but it will most probably not survive in its present form.