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figure 6.15:oecd north america: development of electricity demand by sector (REF, E[R] & advanced E[R])
figure 6.16:oecd north america: development of heat demand by sector
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‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORT•
‘EFFICIENCY’•
OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRYoecd north america: heating and cooling supply Today, renewables meet 12% of OECD North America’s primary energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development.
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 73%
of OECD North America’s total heating demand by 2050.
• Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing demand for heating and cooling, in spite of improving living standards.
• In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas and geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for conventional fossil-fuelled heating systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2emissions.
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario 5,372 PJ/a is saved by 2050, or 21% compared to the Reference scenario. The advanced version introduces renewable heating systems around five years ahead of the basic scenario. Solar collectors and geothermal heating systems achieve economies of scale via ambitious support programmes five to ten years earlier, resulting in a renewables share of 51% by 2030 and 97% by 2050.
figure 6.17:oecd north america: development of heat supply structure under 3 scenarios
PJ/a 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
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RE F E[R]adv E[R]
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HYDROGEN•
GEOTHERMAL•
SOLAR•
BIOMASS•
FOSSIL FUELS© JAMES PEREZ/GP
© JAMES PEREZ/GP
image CONTROL ROOM OF LUZ SOLAR POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.
image LUZ INTERNATIONAL SOLAR POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.
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key results|NORTH AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
OECD PACIFIC
oecd north america: electricity generation
The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 95% of the electricity produced in OECD North America will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute over 68% of electricity generation. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will not increase this share significantly. By 2030 77% and by 2050 98%
will come from renewables, but the overall installed capacity of renewable generation (2,955 GW) will be higher than in the basic version.
Table 6.3 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in OECD North America over time. Up to 2020, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaic and solar thermal (CSP) energy.
table 6.3:oecd north america: projection of renewable electricity generation capacity under both energy [r]evolution scenarios
figure 6.18:oecd north america: development of electricity generation structure under 3 scenarios
(REFERENCE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION AND ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION) [“EFFICIENCY” = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO]
TWh/a 0
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SOLAR THERMAL•
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NUCLEAR77
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key results|NORTH AMERICA - COSTS & JOBS
oecd north america
oecd north america: future costs of electricity generation
Figure 6.19 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantly decreases the future costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario. Because of the lower CO2intensity of electricity generation, costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 will be more than 5 $cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.
Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $470 billion per year to more than $1,150 billion in 2050. Figure 6.19 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD North America’s CO2reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are one third lower than in the Reference scenario.
Despite the increased demand for electricity, especially in the transport and industry sectors, the overall supply costs in the advanced version are $62 billion lower in 2030 but $108 billion higher in 2050 than in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario.
oecd north america: job results
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more energy sector jobs in OECD North America at every stage of the projection.
• There are 1.59 million power sector jobs in the Energy
[R]evolution scenario and 2.01 million in the advanced version by 2015, compared to 660,000 in the Reference scenario.
• By 2020 job numbers reach over 1.6 million in the Energy [R]evolution scenario (1.85 million in the advanced version), one million more than in the Reference scenario.
• By 2030 job numbers remain roughly on 2020 levels in the Energy [R]evolution scenario to 1.4 million (1.7 million in the advanced version) and reach nearly 0.7 million in the Reference scenario.
Table 6.4 shows the increase in job numbers under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios for each technology up to 2020 and up to 2030. Both scenarios show losses in coal generation, but these are outweighed by employment growth in renewable technologies and gas. Wind shows particularly strong growth in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios by 2020, but by 2030 there is significant employment across a range of renewable technologies.
figure 6.19:oecd north america: development of total electricity supply costs & development of specific electricity generation costs under 3 scenarios
0 $¢/kWh 3 6 9 12 15
B $/a 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500
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ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO•
ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO© VISSER/GP © LPM/DREAMSTIME
image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) AT A SOLAR FARM IN DAGGETT, CALIFORNIA, USA.
image AN OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG DAMAGED BY HURRICANE KATRINA, GULF OF MEXICO.
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key results|NORTH AMERICA - TRANSPORT
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
OECD PACIFIC
oecd north america: transport
A key target in OECD North America is to introduce incentives for people to drive smaller cars, something almost completely absent today. In addition, it is vital to shift transport use to efficient modes like rail, light rail and buses, especially in the expanding large metropolitan areas. Together with rising prices for fossil fuels, these changes reduce the huge growth in car sales projected under the Reference scenario. Energy demand from the transport sector is reduced to 50% in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and to 44%
in the advanced version compared to the Reference scenario.
Highly efficient propulsion technology with hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery-electric power trains will bring large efficiency gains.
By 2030, electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, while in the advanced version the share will already reach 16% in 2030 and 58% by 2050.
figure 6.20:oecd north america: transport under 3 scenarios
PJ/a 0
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table 6.4:oecd north america: employment & investment
2015
Construction & installation Manufacturing
Operations & maintenance Fuel
Total Jobs Coal
Gas, oil and diesel Nuclear
Renewables Total Jobs
ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 2015
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FOSSIL FUELS79
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key results|NORTH AMERICA - CO2EMISSIONS & PRIMARY ENERGY
oecd north america
oecd north america: development of CO2emissions Whilst OECD North America’s emissions of CO2will increase by 2% between 2007 and 2050 under the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 6,681 million tonnes in 2007 to 942 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 14.9 t to 1.6 t. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in the transport sector will even reduce CO2emissions.
With a share of 46% of total CO2, the transport sector will be the largest source of emissions in 2050. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario reduces energy related CO2emissions over a period ten to 15 years faster than the basic scenario, leading to 5.1 t per capita by 2030 and 0.4 t by 2050. By 2050, OECD North America’s CO2emissions are 96% below 1990 levels.
oecd north america: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 6.22. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced to 54% in 2050. Around 69%
of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
The advanced version phases out coal and oil about ten to 15 years faster than the basic scenario. This is made possible mainly by the replacement of new coal power plants with renewables after a 20 rather than 40 year lifetime and a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the
transport sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 44% in 2030 and 85%
in 2050. Nuclear power is phased out in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios soon after 2040.
figure 6.21:oecd north america: development of CO2emissions by sector under both energy [r]evolution scenarios
figure 6.22:oecd north america: development of primary energy consumption under three scenarios
PJ/a 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
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Mil t/a
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NUCLEAR© VISSER/GP
© KITZMAN/DREAMSTIME
image SUN SETTING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) AT A SOLAR FARM IN DAGGETT, CALIFORNIA, USA.
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
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OTHER SECTORS•
INDUSTRY•
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PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP80
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key results|LATIN AMERICA - DEMAND
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
TRANSITION ECONOMIES INDIA
DEVELOPING ASIA CHINA
OECD PACIFIC
latin america: energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Latin America’s energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.23 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario total primary energy demand more than doubles from the current 22,733 PJ/a to 41,327 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario a smaller 25% increase from current
consumption is expected by 2050, reaching 28,354 PJ/a and 27,326 PJ/a in the advanced version.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption. This is due to wider access to energy services in developing countries (see Figure 6.24). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 2,185 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 388 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for air-conditioning.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier, and more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen. This means that electricity production in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 2,502 TWh/a in 2050, 17% above the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.25). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 1,586 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will increase by a 13% to 6,089 PJ/a by 2050, saving 53% compared to the Reference scenario.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario goes one step further and factors in a faster decrease in transport energy demand after a peak in 2030. This is achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person-kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives. While electricity demand increases, the overall final energy use falls to 21,403 PJ/a, 37%
lower than in the Reference case.
figure 6.23:latin america: projection of total final energy demand by sector (REF, E[R] & advanced E[R])
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INDUSTRY•
TRANSPORTPJ/a 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
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81
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key results|LATIN AMERICA - HEATING