3 C APÍTULO III: P ERSPECTIVA DE GÉNERO EN LAS TITULACIONES OBJETO DEL ESTUDIO DE CAMPO
E NFERMERÍA Y SUS ESPECIALIDADES EN E SPAÑA
4 C APÍTULO IV: T RABAJO DE CAMPO
4.3 A NÁLISIS E INTERPRETACIÓN DE LOS RESULTADOS
4.3.2 Análisis de la información extraída a través de las preguntas
4.3.2.1 Percepción sobre la desigualdad de género
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figure 6.60:transition economies: development of electricity demand by sector (REF, E[R] & advanced E[R])
figure 6.61:transition economies: development of heat demand by sector
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INDUSTRYtransition economies: heating and cooling supply Renewables currently provide 3% of Transition Economies’ energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. The lack of modern and efficient district heating networks is a barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 74% of Transition Economies’s total heating demand in 2050.
• Energy efficiency measures can decrease heat demand by 37%
in spite of improving living standards.
• For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications will lead to a further reduction of CO2emissions.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution version introduces efficiency measures e.g. via strict building standards and renewable heating systems around 5 years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
Compared to the Reference scenario, 9101 PJ/a or 37% are safed by 2050. Solar collectors and geothermal heating systems achieve economies of scale via ambitious support programmes five to ten years earlier, resulting in a renewable share of 50% by 2030 and 89% by 2050.
figure 6.62:transition economies: development of heat supply structure under 3 scenarios
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© GP/STEVE MORGAN
image AN INDIGENOUS NENET WOMAN WITH HER REINDEER. THE NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR HERDS DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND.
THE ENTIRE REGION AND ITS INHABITANTS ARE UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.
image A SITE OF A DISAPPEARED LAKE AFTER PERMAFROST SUBSIDENCE IN RUSSIA.
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key results|TRANSITION ECONOMIES - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
OECD PACIFIC
transition economies: electricity generation The development of the electricity supply sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 81% of the electricity produced in the Transition Economies will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 33% of electricity generation. The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 91 GW to 554 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 6. This will require political support and well-designed policy instruments. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 53% by 2030 and 93% by 2050. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 330 GW in 2030 and 735 GW by 2050, 33% higher than in the basic version.
None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. While the deployment rate compared to the technical potential for hydro power, for example, is relatively high at 28% in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, for
photovoltaic only 0.4% has been used in the advanced scenario.
Figure 6.63 shows the expansion rate of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaic and geothermal energy.
table 6.13:transition economies: projection of renewable electricity generation capacity under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios
IN GW
figure 6.63:transition economies: development of electricity generation structure under 3 scenarios
(REFERENCE, ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION AND ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION) [“EFFICIENCY” = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO]
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key results|TRANSITION ECONOMIES - COSTS & JOBS
transition economies
transition economies: future costs of electricity generation
Figure 6.64 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario. This difference will be less than 1 cent/kWh up to 2020, however. Because of the lower CO2intensity of electricity generation, by 2020 costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, and by 2050 costs will be more than 5 cents/kWh below those in the Reference scenario. Due to growing demand, there will be a significant increase in society’s expenditure on electricity supply.
Under the Reference scenario, total electricity supply costs will rise from today’s $163 billion per year to more than $555 billion in 2050. Figure 6.64 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Transition Economies` CO2reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Long term costs for electricity supply are one third lower than in the Reference scenario.
In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios the specific generation costs are almost on the same level until 2030. In 2050 the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has with 8 cents/kWh lower generation costs, because of greater economics of scale in renewable power equipment. Despite the increased electricity demand especially in the transport and industry sector the overall total supply costs in the advanced case are $26 billion in 2030 and
$32 billion in 2050 lower than in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.
transition economies: job results
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more energy sector jobs in the Transition Economies at every stage of the projection.
• There are 750,000 power sector jobs in both Energy [R]evolution scenario by 2015, compared to 600,000 in the Reference scenario.
• By 2020 job numbers reach over 960,000 in both Energy
[R]evolution scenarios, 350,000 more than in the Reference scenario.
• By 2030 job numbers in the renewable sector climb slightly in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario to nearly 700,000 and remain at around 600,000 in the basic version, while in the Reference scenario, there are only 120,000 jobs in the renewables industry – equal to the gas power sector.
Table 6.14 shows the increase in job numbers under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios for each technology up to 2020 and up to 2030. Both scenarios show losses in coal generation, but these are outweighed by employment growth in renewable technologies and gas. Wind and biomass shows particularly strong growth in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios by 2020, but by 2030 there is significant employment across a range of renewable technologies.
figure 6.64:transition economies: development of total electricity supply costs & development of specific electricity generation costs under 3 scenarios
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ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO© GP/SHIRLEY © GP/MIZUKOSHI
image CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER STATION, UKRAINE.
image THE SUN OVER LAKE BAIKAL, RUSSIA.
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key results|TRANSITION ECONOMIES - TRANSPORT
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
OECD PACIFIC
transition economies: transport
Development of the transport sector is characterised by the diversification of energy sources towards more efficiency. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario energy demand reduction of 6205 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050, saving 60% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the
introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.
A slight shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled by 0.25% per year leads to significant final energy savings.
By 2030, electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in the advanced case the share will already be 14% in 2030 and 47% by 2050.
figure 6.65:transition economies: transport under 3 scenarios
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FOSSIL FUELStable 6.14:transition economies: employment & investment
2015
Construction & installation Manufacturing
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ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 2015
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key results|TRANSITION ECONOMIES - CO2EMISSIONS & PRIMARY ENERGY
transition economies
transition economies: development of CO2emissions Whilst emissions of CO2will increase by 35% under the Reference scenario by 2050, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 2650 million tonnes in 2007 to 532 million t in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 7.8 t to 1.7 t. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 40% of total CO2in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport and other sectors as the largest sources of emissions.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario reduces energy related CO2emissions about 10 to 15 years faster than the basic scenario, leading to 3.9 t per capita by 2030 and 0.8 t by 2050. By 2050, Transition Economies´s CO2emissions are 6% of 1990 levels.
transition economies: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions outlined above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 6.67. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall energy demand will be reduced by 48% in 2050. Around 62% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
The Advanced scenario phases out coal and oil about ten years faster than the basic scenario. This is made possible mainly by a quicker replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20 years rather than 40 years lifetime in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the transport sector to
replace combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable energy share of 37% in 2030 and 76% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios soon after 2040.
figure 6.66:transition economies: development of CO2emissions by sector under both energy [r]evolution scenarios
figure 6.67:transition economies: development of primary energy consumption under three scenarios
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image LAKE BAIKAL, RUSSIA.
image SOLAR PANELS IN A NATURE RESERVE IN CAUCASUSU, RUSSIA.
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
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PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP110
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key results|INDIA - DEMAND
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
TRANSITION ECONOMIES INDIA
DEVELOPING ASIA CHINA
OECD PACIFIC
india: energy demand by sector
The potential future development pathways for India’s primary energy demand are shown in Figure 6.68 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total energy demand triples from the current 25,203 PJ/a to 78,048 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand in India will increase by about 105% and is expected to reach 51,718 PJ/a by 2050. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario foresees a demand of 54,763 PJ/a by 2050 and is therefore roughly at the same level.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase substantially (see Figure 6.69). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, a higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 3,439 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 615 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available
technology in all demand sectors.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier while more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport.
Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen. This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 4,047 TWh/a in 2050.
Efficiency gains for heat and cooling supply are also significant.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heating and cooling can even be reduced (see Figure 6.70). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 5,110 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.
In the transport sector, it is assumed, with a fast growing economy, that under the Energy [R]evolution scenario energy demand will increase dramatically - from 1,708 PJ/a in 2007 to 8,677 PJ/a by 2050. This still saves 42% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, shifting freight transport from road to rail and by changes in travel behaviour. Because India, as a developing country, has a relatively low starting point, transport demand (in terms of
kilometres per person and freight volumes) has not been reduced any further than in the basic version. Due to a wider use of more efficient electric drives, however, overall final energy demand in transport falls to 7,277 PJ/a, 51% lower than in the Reference case.
figure 6.68:india: projection of total final energy demand by sector (REF, E[R] & advanced E[R])
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TRANSPORTPJ/a 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
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key results|INDIA - HEATING
india
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figure 6.69:india: development of electricity demand by sector (REF, E[R] & advanced E[R])
figure 6.70:india: development of heat demand by sector
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INDUSTRYindia: heating and cooling supply
Renewables presently provide 60% of energy demand for heat and cooling supply in India, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a continuously dynamic development of renewables in the heat market. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables will provide 71% of India’s heating and cooling demand by 2050.
• Energy efficiency measures will restrict future energy demand for heat and cooling supply to an increase of 74% relative to 2005, in spite of improving living standards. This compares to 133% in the Reference scenario.
• In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas and geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for conventional fossil-fuelled heating systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2emissions.
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario 5,110 PJ/a is saved by 2050, or 25% compared to the Reference scenario. The advanced Energy [R]evolution version introduces renewable heating and cooling systems around five years ahead of the basic scenario. India can use concentrated solar energy to generate heat for industrial processes in its north western provinces.
figure 6.71:india: development of heat supply structure under 3 scenarios
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FOSSIL FUELS© GP/PETER CATON
© GP/PETER CATON
image AJIT DAS LIVES IN GHORAMARA ISLAND AND IS ONE OF THE MANY PEOPLE AFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE: “WE CANNOT STAY HERE BECAUSE OF THE GANGA’S FLOODING. WE HAVE MANY PROBLEMS. WE DON’T KNOW WHERE WE WILL GO OR WHAT WE WILL DO. WE CANNOT BRING OUR GRANDCHILDREN UP HERE. WHATEVER THE GOVERNMENT DECIDES FOR US, WE SHALL FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE. EVERYTHING IS GOING UNDER THE WATER. WHILE THE EDGE OF THE LAND IS BREAKING IN
GHORAMARA, THE MIDDLE OF THE RIVER IS BECOMING SHALLOWER. WE DON’T KNOW WHERE WE WILL GO OR WHAT WE WILL DO”.
image VILLAGERS ORDER THEMSELVES INTO QUEUE TO RECEIVE SOME EMERGENCY RELIEF SUPPLY PROVIDED BY A LOCAL NGO. SCIENTISTS ESTIMATE THAT OVER 70,000 PEOPLE, LIVING EFFECTIVELY ON THE FRONT LINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE SUNDARBANS DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE BY THE YEAR 2030.
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key results|INDIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
OECD PACIFIC
india: electricity generation
By 2050, about 62% of the electricity produced in India will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute almost 45% of electricity generation. The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 44 GW to 775 GW in 2050, a substantial increase over the next 40 years.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development pathway, with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 64% by 2030 and 93% by 2050. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 510 GW in 2030 and 1,325 GW by 2050, 71% higher than in the basic version.
Table 6.15 shows the comparative evolution of different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2030, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass,
photovoltaic and solar thermal (CSP) energy.
While the advanced scenario uses 10% of the known technical potential for PV, 17% for tide and wave and just 5% of the solar thermal potential, the “official” figure for India´s wind potential is only 100 GW. The overall installed capacity of wind power by 2050 in the advanced version is 346 GW, 3.5 times higher, however. This is because both the Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace International believe that India’s wind potential is several times higher than officially recognised, mainly as a result of historic wind speed measurements being taken at a height of only 50 metres – and not the 80 m which is the typical height of a modern wind turbine.
When the United States reworked its wind potential calculations, a change from 50 to 80 m measurement height tripled the overall potential.
A new analysis for China has also shown that the wind potential will be 640 GW by 2030 (Science, Vol 325, page 1380, M.B.McElroy et al., September 2009) . We are therefore confident that the projected installed capacity of 346 GW by 2050 for India is realistic.
table 6.15:india: projection of renewable electricity generation capacity under both Energy
[R]evolution scenarios figure 6.72:india: development of electricity generation structure under 3 scenarios
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key results|INDIA - COSTS & JOBS
india
india: future costs of electricity generation
Figure 6.73 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantly decreases the future costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario. Because of the lower CO2intensity of electricity generation, costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 will be more than 3 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.
Under the Reference scenario, by contrast, a massive growth in demand, increased fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $69 billion per year to more than $605 billion in 2050. Figure 6.73 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with India’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables leads to long term costs for electricity supply that are one third lower than in the Reference scenario.
In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios the specific electricity generation costs are almost the same up to 2030. By 2050, however, the advanced version results in a reduction of
7 cents/kWh, mainly because of greater economies of scale in the production of renewable power equipment. Although the demand
7 cents/kWh, mainly because of greater economies of scale in the production of renewable power equipment. Although the demand