The first two studies from non-project analysts a s s essed the process of the diffusion of the technology and u n d e r t o o k a
The new technology inputs in E t h i o p i a were mai n l y of fertilizer, seed (wheat and to a mu c h lesser extent barley), traction and harvesting m e c h anical power (al though they were not directly promoted by the project) with supporting services in research, marketing, c o o p e r
ative, credit, infrastructure and social serv i c e s / h e a l t h education. The only price support off e r e d was in the form of tax exempted imported fuel to m e c h a n i z e d farmers
- 32 - 14
farm level cost benefit analysis (Tecle: 1974; Bisrat: the p r o f itability of
1976). Gill c onsidered a lternative techno l o g y - traditional,
A
intermediate and tractor/combine-harvester, given the factor and pr o d u c t prices prevai l i n g in 1975/76 (Gill: 1978). Their p olicy r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s were akin to the analysts in Asia - the need for agr a r i a n reform, and the disc o n t i n u a t i o n
15
of non-taxed fuel to mec h a n i z e d farmers. Understandably, those who a d d r essed their study to the impact of the new technology on the totality of agrarian change in Ethiopia (Cohen: 1975; Stahl: 1974; Kifle: 1972) a lmost exc l u s i v e l y focused on the negative social c o nsequences of the new t e c h nology - the eviction of tenants. Few looked into the d i a l e c tics of the changing agrarian structure in terms of a c c u m u l a t ion, growth, and equity locally in Arsi and wi t h i n the f r a m e work of a d e velopment strategy for the national economy. With the introduction of the new t e c h nology and the high p r o fitability which it b r ought in its wake (chapter six),, first Ch i l a l o and later Arsi as a wh o l e were u n d e r g o i n g rapid c hange in p r o d uction and product i v i t y with manifestations, of the d e v e l o p m e n t of cap i t a l i s m in a g r i c u l t u r e by the p e a s antry and mec h a n i z e d farmers from w ithin and outside.
Using social prices, Tecle es t i m a t e d a net re t u r n of Eth. Bi r r 126 and 80 per hectare for seed / f e r t i l i z e r inputs in CADU and W A D U respectively. In an e x t ension area (with r o ughly 2000 households), farm size, extension contact, literacy and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of cash for down payment to purchase the new inputs were found to be positively correlated with the level of adoption (Tecle: 1974). In a later study, Bi s r a t dem o n s t r a t e d the lack of any significant d i f f erence in the adoption b e h a viour between the northern and southern p e a s antry on the one hand and tenants and owners on the other
(Bisrat: 1976).
The de m a n d for tractor services was in any case found to be inelastic wi t h respect to fuel prices (Tecle: 1974, p. 173).
To a well kn o w n researcher, the process r e s u l t e d in:
"...Accumulated w ealth for the few and incresing m i sery for the m a n y . ... as a c o nsequence of the c o m m e r c i a l i z a t ion of agricultural production. By e n c o u r a g i n g c a p i t a l ist m o d e of p r o d u c t i o n in the feudal regions, the IEG (Imperial E t h i opian Government) has r e n d e r e d new features to the age old e x p l o i t a t i o n of the peasants. The S o u t h ern Hig h l a n d s are being drawn into the modern, dynamic process of u n d e r d e v e l o p m e n t " . (Stahl: 1974, p . 153).
The w o r k i n g out of this process aptly d e s c ribed by the w r iter above was r a d ically altered by the E t h i opian R evolution and the agrarian r eform of the M i l i t a r y G o v e r n ment in 1975.17 The agrarian reform n a t i o n a l i s e d all rural
lands: "... All rural lands shall be the c o l l e c t i v e p r o p e r t y of the E t h i o p i a n people" (chapter 2, Art. 3, No. 1). By doing so, and instituting peasant associations, their judicial and def e n c e committees u n d e rmined the political, e c onomic and to an extent the ideological basis of the hitherto t r i b u tary a g r a r i a n relations: "....the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n the landlord and tenants shall be abolished" (Chapter 2, Art. 6, No. 3); "No c o m p e n s a t i o n shall be p a i d for rural land and any of the crops thereon" (Chapter 2, Art. 3, No. 3);
"No p erson shall by sale, exchange, succession, mortgage, antichresis lease or o t h e rwise transfer any land acquired" (Chapter 2, Art. 5), and "... All cases pending in courts 16
17
For the causes, pro g r e s s and assess m e n t of the Ethiopian Revolution, see H a l liday F. & M o l y n e u x M. The E t h i opian R e v o l u t i o n , London, 1983; Markakis J. & Nega A. Class and Revolu t i o n in E t h i o p i a , Spokesman 1978; O t toway M. & Ot t o w a y D. Ethiopia: Empire in R e v o l u t i o n , New York 1978 Our p o s i t i o n in r e l a t i o n to the dis c u s s i o n of the mo d e of pro d u c t i o n in a g r i c u l t u r e is spelt out in section 6 of ch a p t e r 3.
While we outline be l o w its salient features, an account of the i mplementation in 1975-79 in mo s t parts of the
country and the main provisions of the pro c l a m a t i o n are
found in Aster A. The Process of Land N a t i o n a l i s a t i o n in E t h i o p i a , Bloms Boktryckevi, Lund 1982. For the social ba c k g r o u n d to the reform, the formation and o p e r ation of pe a s a n t associations, in the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of land in selected areas, see Dessalegn R. A g r a r i a n R e f o r m in E t h i o p i a , Scandinavian Institute of A f r i c a n Studies 1985. See also Alula Abute and Fasil Kiros "A g r a r i a n Reform, S tructural Changes & R ural Debt in E t h i o p i a . ILO, World E mployment Programme, Geneva, Sept. 1980
- 34 -
being null and void (Chapter 6, Art. 28 No. 1). Side by side, it also promulgated measures to a r r e s t the d e v e l opment of p r ivate agrarian capita l i s m in agriculture: "... The amount of land to be allotted to any farm family shall at no time e x c eedlO h e c t a r e s 1' (Chapter 2, Art. 4 No. 5) and "...any large scale farm shall be owned and run by state or c o o p e r a tives or shall be d i s t r i b u t e d to the tillers for individual use (Chapter 2, Art. 7 No. 1). Chapter 3 of the pro c l a m a t i o n also p r ovides the institutional framework to implement the provision of the proclamation.
The Eth i o p i a n a g r arian reform of 1975 was thus both radical in forcing a revolut i o n a r y c hange of the relations of p r o d u c t i o n between the hitherto "proto" landlords and the tenantry with no compensation for land to the former and the a b o l ition of the emerging "proto" c apitalist farmers and r e d i s t r i b u t i v i s t in the sense used by Lipton (Lipton: 1974). The period 1966-1980 in the a g r a r i a n development of E t h iopia provides in succession, first the w i d e spread d i s s emination of the new technology inputs in the context of d e v e l o p m e n t towards agrarian c a p i t a l i s m (1966-1975) and then a radical r e d i s t r i b u t i v i s t agrarian r eform with strong government intervention in marketing (1975-1980). This thesis seeks to identify' some of the implications of what
emerged for the theory and practice of agr a r i a n transition in largely non-feudal and n o n - capitalist A f r i c a n rural social f o r m a t i o n s .
- 35 - 1 . A l\ X H S „ ID 7-\ T /\
„ „ „ ^ T T-^ t r tvt T X ’ / \ ' X X C D I M - X
PDHIX'M ODOLOGY
7-\IMID__LaJ^jLJ-X-XXD—-------
By analysis^ < " the new technology at the micro farm level, a n d a t regional and national levels, and by e x a m i n a t i o n of land and labour productivity, taxation, the m a r k e t e d surplus and the distrib u t i o n m argin between intermediaries, price trends, the terms of trade and their empirical r e l a t i o n s h i p with agrarian r e f o r m j r e s e a r c h problems will be indicated dealing with strategies for the r e d i s t r i b u tion for welfare, for a c c u m u l a t i o n and for invest m e n t n a t i o n ally, r e g i o n a l l y and at the farm level. In the context of r e v o l u t i o n a r y ag r a r i a n change, p a r t i c u l a r l y in Africa, the E t h i o p i a n e x p e rience may provide some insight into the issue of agricul t u r a l technology, stare inte r v e n t i o n , t h e peasat and str a t e g i e s to embark on an e n d o g e n e o u s l y generated a g r i cultural surplus for accumulation. It is hoped that the d i s s e r t a t i o n will pi n p o i n t concrete problems of agrarian transition in S u b-Saharan Africa, in c o n t r a s t with those of n o n - A f r i c a n social formations which are usually discussed
in the new technologyfi j terotureJ:tiat is say, we focus upon agrarian social classes in the making, and a relatively land 'surplus' r e s ource base in single cropping rain fed a g riculture which c h a r a c t e r i z e African a g r a r i a n social f o r m a t
ions in c o n t r a d i s t i n c t i o n to the c o n d i t i o n in Asia with its a r t i c u l a t e d agrarian social classes, irrigation as the leading input and with a labour 'surplus' agrarian scene.
In the analysis and sythesis of the main issues in the study e numerated above we have tried to integrate both the historical and e m p i r i cal/statistical methods. Secondary historical sources, the first countrywide agricultural survey (1966-.1.968), farm level farm man a g e m e n t studies in pre and post t echnology villages, extensive p u b lications of CADU/ARDU and the annual crop sampling surveys of the Mi n i s t r y of Agriculture are the main data base of the study. We have used the historical method, employed des c r i p t i v e statistics and built simple analytic models - a partial c o rrelation coefficient model con t r o l l i n g for v a r i a b l e s (chapter five), a
18
simple r e g r e s s i o n model (chapter six) and demand and supply model (given the first countrywide census result of 1984 and agricultural surveys) were con s t r u c t e d to orient the study towards application and problem solving in chapters four, six and seven. We have chosen simplicity and clarity in model building rather than complexity and sophistication. Micro (farm level), regional (Arsi) and national (Ethiopia) analysis and synthesis are used to infer policy and amplify the a r g ument of the empirical part of the thesis in chapters five to seven.
While the partial correlation model and the h ypothesis it used to test peasant economy is set out in some detail
and
in c h apter five, the r e l a t i o n between the state, ^ t h e p e a santry relatio n s h i p
andA within the peasantry and the latter's demand and supply r e l ationship have been concre t i z e d in terms of the mar k e t a b l e
Our main interest being to test simple relationships of land productivity, and factor inputs e specially net sown area rather t h a n actual m a g n itudes of farm m a n a g e ment and resource use[°prescriptive purposes, we d e l i b e r ately avoided using the more rea l i s t i c but complex p r o d u c t i o n function analysis.
* ■ •
3 7
surplus of c e r e a l s . ^ To this effect, we have built simple analytical m odels for the base pre - t e c h n o l o g y period I.e. for 1966 (chapter four), for Ethiopia as a whole; for the pre- techno.logy/pre-agrarian r e f o r m period (1966) for the post technology years (1966-1975), and for the p o s t - t e c h n o l o g y and p o s t - a g r a r i a n r e f o r m per i o d (1975-1980) for Arsi (chapter six) and for Ethiopia (1970, 1975, 1980), The detail of the model is given in chapter four s e c t i o n six wh e r e it is first e m p l o y e d in the analysis of the m a r k e t e d surplus in Ethiopian a griculture in the base p eriod in 1966.
Since the seed f ertilizer packages and even more the mechanical components of the new t e c h n o l o g y were used in very limited areas and am o n g the grain c u l t i v a t i n g p e a s a n t r y
70
on the E t h i o p i a n temperate highlands w the study excludes a large part of the important commercial crop, coffee, in the south and south-west. In so far as p a r t of these regions are e x c l u s i v e l y used for grain c u l t i v a t i o n or intercropped with coffee, the farm level analysis in chapter five may in large me a s u r e apply to these regions as well. The same chapter's applic a t i o n also excludes the s o - called e nset cultivating complex e x t ending from Kembatta, Gurage, Derassa, Wollaita and Sidamo - a region with the highest d e nsity of p o p u l a t i o n in Eth i o p i a and the rat h e r sparsely pop u l a t e d nomadic and semi-nomadic areas. The d i s c u s s i o n on the mode of p r o d u c t i o n and a g r arian structure, however, embraces
19.
In the absence of data on national marketed supply of cereals, we are compelled to est i m a t e m a r k e t a b l e quantity from the . supply side. For the co n c e p t of the mar k e t a b l e surplus, its c o m p onents and signifi c a n c e in the context of agrarian transition and development, 2q see chapter four, section six.
For the d e lineation of agricultural systems in Eth i o p i a and the ecological subdivisions of the country, see Westphal. E. Agr i c u l t u r a l Systems in E t h i o p i a , Centre for Agricultural Pub l i s h i n g and Documentation, Wag e n i n g e n Netherlands, 1975.
both the grain and enset sedentary ag r a r i a n systems. An o t h e r major s h o r t coming of the study is the lack of time series data on the marketed supply of cereals to make any meaningful inference about price e lasticity of supply and any possible shifts in demand following the a g rarian reform and its income increasing e ffect among the m i d d l e peasants. We have instead tried to r elate the change in the crop mix and their r e l a t i v e prices on the one hand .with the increased disposable incomes by the peasantry, the real income of the urban w o rking class and their implications for a c c u m u lation on the other following the reform.
3 9
•j
1 ' 5 S Y N O P S I S O F T H E C H A P T E R L '
Chapter two deals with agrarian structure in Ethiopia in the mid-sixties. It looks into the social and methodological basis of the identification of agrarian social classes, it suggests three agrarian systems in the analysis of Ethiopian agriculture. Given the incorporation of the tributary Empire via trade in agricultural commodities in the post-1941 period, it attempts to build the commonality of the agrarian systems based on the relative land labour ratio between and the
ownership of oxen within each agrarian system. The chapter brings to the fore the specificity of the agrarian classes and strata of the peasantry within Ethiopian agriculture in 1967.
Chapter three is an empirical exercise dealing with the basis of the social differentiation positions of Chayanov and Lenin and testing the relevant hypotheses for Chilalo. Employing a partial correlation coefficient model, the salient
hypotheses are tested in 20 farms using the new technology
inputs and for others (10) in the pre-technology villages
on the one hand and by poor/lower middle and upper middle/rich peasants on the other. The findings from this chapter are
expanded on the empirical chapter in Arsi agriculture following the new technology - the use and productivity of resources
(land, oxen, new technology inputs) and their implications in radical redistributivist agrarian reform.
~ ~ s (• ■ < os t h e social and econoim* c i m p a c t
of the now t e c h n o l o g y in A r s i as a w h o l e b e f o r e the a g r a r i a n r e f o r m o f 19 7 9 ( 19 6 6 - 1 9 7 h ) and lat e r 1 a 7 9 - 1 9 8 9 . I n 1 966 - 19 / :> t
the new forces of p r o d u c t i o n unl e a s h e d by the new tec h n o l o g y gave rise to new p r o d u c t i o n relations; the b e g i n n i n g of the social d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the peasantry, the m a k i n g of an agr a r i a n b o u r g e o i s i e f r o m "below" and the a s s o c i a t e d higher levels of land and labour productivity, a c c u m u l a t i o n in a g r i c u l t u r e and increases in the gross m a r k e t a b l e surplus, net m a r k e t e d output and the commercial surplus.
On the basis of the pre and post new t e c h n o l o g y and agr a r i a n r e f o r m levels and changes in factor proportions, output,
c o n s u m p t i o n and the m a r k e t a b l e surplus, it is argued that a r e d i s t r i b u t i v e a g r a r i a n r e f o r m w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e to the
p r e v a i l i n g m o d e of production, dynamic class analysis, resource base, p r e v a i l i n g factor ratios and the type of capital (in
rai n f e d single cr o p p i n g versus irr i g a t i o n agriculture) and the i m p l i c a t i o n s for a r e v e r s e d r e lation b e t w e e n land
p r o d u c t i v i t y and net sown area w i l l me e t n e i t h e r the a c c u m u l a t i o n nor the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o bjectives of development. The p o s t
r e f o r m p e r i o d appears to have acc e n t u a t e d the d i f f e rences in incomes b e t w e e n the poor and the m i d d l e p e a s a n t r y due to the un e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of oxen and the lower m e a n levels of h o l d i n g w i t h the trend towards m i d d l e peasantization,
pos s i b l e fall in land p r o d u c t i v i t y among new t e c h n o l o g y us i n g p e a s a n t r y and a r e g r e s s i v e tax policy. This c h apter dem o n s t r a t e s the case of an 'agricultural revolution' in A r s i following
the new technolgoy.
C h a p t e r five extends the analysis in ch a p t e r six to the w h o l e of E t h i o p i a for 1970-1975 and 1975-1980. It argues that the r e v ersal towards m i d d l e p e a s a n t i z a t i o n fol l o w i n g the
4 i
and m i d d l e m e n not rei n v e s t e d into agriculture, very high levels of retail and w h o l e s a l e prices of cereals (especially the coarse cereals c o n sumed by the rural and ur b a n poor), given the p r e - r e f o r m and p r e - t e c h n o l o g y p e r i o d forces of production, cannot be the basis for pr i m a r y a c c u m u l a t i o n nor equity w i t h i n the strata of the peasantry. The rapid rise in the c o n s u m p t i o n of f e r t ilizer w i t h ne a r l y one third of the e s t i m a t e d urban and n o madic demand be i n g m e t from its i nc r e m e n t a l o utput on the other hand suggests the w i d e s p r e a d d i f f u s i o n of the t e c h n o l o g y inputs. Most of the increased p r o d u c t i v i t y is a p p r o p r i a t e d by the state m a r k e t i n g agency and middlemen.
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