La Ley General y el Bachillerato

Practically all of the concrete and highly efficient steps that were undertaken by Putin were made at the very beginning of his first presidential term, in a dashing, unexpected, and rather tough manner. This manner became his political foundation. Just to remind you of what we had at that point: a liberal pro-Western elite, which hated Russia with all its heart, and the people which it dubbed ‘this country’; the media, divided between scheming oligarchs who were waging wars against each other over the people’s and the government’s heads; the separatist hotbed in Chechnya; the blossoming totalitarian Islamist sects (the Wahhabis); the sovereignty of the regional barons; and a deep schism in society.

The country was on the verge of a catastrophe:

disintegration, terror, civil war and chaos, and society was stricken by apathy and silent resentment, while a grim, odious and sick tyrant was looming above it all.

Putin, when he came to power, gave a sharp and effective answer to all these challenges. He stopped the expansion of the Chechen Wahhabi separatists, and the Russians entered Grozny. He took the major media out of the hands of the most notorious oligarchs and placed them within the limits of minimal loyalty to the state and its people. He prevented Russia’s disintegration into

‘appanage principalities’^[61] where the leaders of the Fatherland — All Russia were leading it.

Putin reformed the Federation Council, deliberately weakening it, and strengthened the nation’s territorial integrity, introducing the rigid structure of the federal districts. He created a better social atmosphere, harmonised the sharpest

tensions and introduced the notion of ‘fashionable patriotism’. He cracked down on the totalitarian religious sects. He suspended the seemingly imminent disintegration of the nation and gave the people a chance to catch their breath. This is the basis of his high approval ratings. This is the only Putin that the people accept and support.

Another aspect is his foreign policy. Here Putin followed two strategies at once: patriotic rhetoric and his vacillations between Europe and the US. Since Russia does not have the potential for a fully-fledged strategic autarchy of its own, the important choice lies between cooperation with the US or with Europe. Putin was indecisive in this regard. Since Russia’s strategic interests, from a geopolitical standpoint, belong in the Russian-European strategic partnership, the President found himself in a difficult situation.

The mighty US, using a carrot-and-stick approach, tried to suppress Russia, whereas

indecisive Europe in its turn lent a helping hand before jerking it back. Theoretically, Putin needed to take a consistently Eurasian line and stick to it no matter what, be it the post-9/11 syndrome, the American aggression in Iraq, or even situations that arose prior to these events. All the steps he took in the Eurasian direction — the strengthening of relations with the Asian states, the integration processes within EurAsEC, the partnership with Europe, and so on can be regarded as successful. The concessions he made to the US were failures.

That being said, I have to admit the following:

Putin had been extremely lucky all this time.

Luck is a very curious quality. A question arose:

what exactly was it that prevented the President from acting to the full extent of his power? I have formed an impression that Putin fought the counterattacks of the victims of his reforms, fighting a rear-guard action on the domestic

political front. These counterattacks were very serious, and, to a large extent, Putin had to stay where he was or even step back a little on a number of points.

After the quick victory over the Chechen separatists, the operation assumed a protracted character: it was not quite a war, but neither was it a victory. Three years passed, and the initially besieged rebellious governors resurfaced among the ranks of United Russia as if nothing had happened, and, blackmailing the President with their election issues, started to seek their own profit. The federal districts proved to be largely inefficient and simply multiplied the ranks of hollow bureaucrats. The radical Islamist sects resumed their activities and spread all over the North Caucasus. ‘Patriotism’ and conservatism lacked any real substance and remained empty slogans and claptrap. Genuine political conciliation did not happen, and the Kremlin

administration was still ‘chasing Communists’

and engaging in PR. In other words, Putin not only failed to develop and finalise his endeavours, but, on some issues, lost the positions that he had previously occupied.

Why did it happen? At first it seemed that Putin became President too fast. He simply did not have enough time to back himself ideologically, conceptually, in terms of his entourage, or politically, as befits such a high position. This severe personnel shortage and the absence of new blood in the political elite played an enormous role. Putin’s protégés in most cases proved to be unable to handle their tasks properly, and as a result, the process of rotating the members of the political elite came to a standstill: the officials who had held office before Putin had been more efficient and had more experience, but they belonged to a different political paradigm; Putin’s people were

loosely-knit and haphazard, and their personal loyalty would have been enough only if the President had had a clear ideological base or dictatorial tendencies. There were some external reasons as well: the pressure from the West reached unprecedented heights. Any action aimed at strengthening Russia’s position made the US unhappy, and it became a natural rallying point for all the internal agents of Western influence as well to the external levers of power, both economic and political.

Putin had yet to create a new political system, to implement fundamental reforms, to get the creation of a new political elite going, and to find traces of an actual counter-elite in contemporary Russian society that he could draw upon, either by growing it artificially or by redeploying some of the more efficient managers into the state’s political sector. Without new blood, the country may have faced a collapse.

While Putin symbolises a respite, his place in history is uncertain. I am convinced that Russia has only one future — the Eurasian way, and I believe that Putin can only realise himself as a Eurasian President. It will be extremely difficult but it will be the right way.

2. Putin’s Ideology