Ley de Planeación.

This study represents an attempt to provide a detailed overview of energy flow and end-use in a contemporary urban settlement. It is preliminary to a detailed, sector end-use analysis (Newcombe, 1975), analysis of energy use at the individual and family level (K. Newcombe, in preparation), and to research into the biological and climatological impact of artificial heat generation (J.D. Kalma et al., in preparation).

If energy problems are to be dealt with properly in ever increasingly com­ plex urban societies, and if critical areas of need in the metabolism of cities are to be identified and sustained in a time of impending energy shortages, then such studies will have to become universal. Of even greater importance is the fact that such research can be used to distinguish between the real and illusory needs for energy deployment.

Hong Kong represents a classical focal point in the ecology of the region and of the globe where the consumption of energy and materials far outweights production. In consequence, a critical state of dependence is established on the continued stability of the complex networks of supply that enable Hong Kong to survive and prosper economically. Its ecological strategy must be to maintain stability in the supply networks of all essential materials, and energy.

Diversification of the sources of energy is one means of creating such stability. Current storage holds only 40 days’ supply, compared with 60—90 day storage capacities in many countries (Shell Company of Hong Kong, personal commu­ nication, 1974).

Hong Kong receives its main fuels through the major suppliers in 18 000 to 70 000 tonne vessels. It takes about one week for a ship to reach Hong Kong from Singapore. Depending on the circumstances, it is possible for a delay in shipping to squeeze fuel supplies in Hong Kong and the need for greater storage capacity to provide a buffer period in a time of erratic or uncertain energy supply has been appreciated by the government. During 1973, China began to export to Hong Kong, kerosene and gasoils. In that year these made up 4% and 3%, respectively, of the total imports of these fuel types. While relatively small in volume then, the construction of rail-fed storage tanks for

fuels of Chinese origin in Shatin New Town and sea-fed storage tanks at Tsing Yi Island promises a more significant volume for the future. If fuels of Chinese origin can comprise a large percentage of consumption, Hong Kong’s dependence on fuels of Middle East origin can be reduced, allowing the desired increase in stability of energy supply networks.

Diversification of the type of energy used presents another option to Hong Kong for improving the stability of energy supply. Continued dependence on oil-based fuels offers no long-term panacea. It is well documented that oil - based fuels will be nearly exhausted during the next 30 years, and the immediate future does not offer great security since alternatives to fossil fuels, or the better exploitation of existing coal reserves may be decades away from matching ever-increasing energy demands. Within the oil industry it has been suggested that shortages are due to occur by 1978 because of a decline in drilling success (Warman, 1973). Landsberg (1974) has forewarned of shortages because of increased drilling costs. Thomas (1973) has suggested, and it is already evident, that the lack of incentive for oil-producing countries to continue to produc e when they have unspent oil revenues may severely disrupt supply in the next few years. Two of these forecast problems are not directly related to the size of power resources, yet viewed together with the inevitable depletion of supplies they further support the need for reducing the current reliance on oil-based fuels.

Hong Kong has expressed interest in a nuclear alternative, but as with the establishment of an oil refinery, it would still compete for raw materials with powerful industrialised states. However, by generating up to 15% of its total energy requirements from its own wastes and direct solar radiation, it could simultaneously reduce its dependence on external energy supply networks and alleviate part of its already critical waste disposal problems.

A further option which natural systems already exploit is the maximisation of work performed per unit of energy entering the system. Almost two-fifths of the fuels imported to Hong Kong are lost by inefficient conversion to electricity. An increased consumption of town gas, with its significantly higher thermal efficiency (see Table VII) could compensate for the serious loss of energy in conversion of fuel oil to electricity. This is particularly so where the appliance efficiency achieved by using town gas is equal to, or marginally less than, that obtained using electricity. This applies for cooking and water heating in the domestic sector and with steam raising and various direct heat requiring applications in commerce and industry.

Policy changes regarding subsidy of reticulation networks in government, housing estates allowing a larger domestic market for town gas, could in the long term significantly increase the overall thermal efficiency of converting oil-based feedstocks to more sophisticated fuels.

Potential for long-term energy conservation was shown by the marked decreases in domestic consumption induced by government campaigns to reduce energy consumption during the 1973—1974 oil crisis. January 1974 electricity consumption dropped by more than 7% over January 1973 con-

sum ption (Census and Statistics D epartm ent, 1974). T here was no evidence of hardship as a result of these energy savings. U nfortu nately, this option was im m ediately forgone once it was announced th at new oil contracts were signed in May 1974. Advertising by Hong Kong electricity com panies shows th at th ey are now openly soliciting increased consum ption o f electricity on th e basis th a t there is no longer an ‘oil crisis’ (Sing Pao, 1974).

Similarly, it has been shown in Hong Kong, and elsewhere (Berg, 1974), th a t relatively simple changes in industrial consum ption practices could result in saving significant am ounts of energy.

From exam ination of trends in energy use in Hong Kong it was shown th a t there has been a rapid transition from using particularly firew ood and coal solid fuels to an alm ost entirely liquid fuel base. Such a com plete change in dom estic fuels from traditio n al to m odem in less than a generation implies a significant shift in cultural practices and it provides a clear indication of the potential im pact th a t changing patterns of energy consum ption can have on life style and living conditions.

Certainly there is need to establish efficient means o f m onitoring energy flows and patterns of energy use in urban settlem ents.

An understanding of th e urban energy system can lead to th e developm ent o f new m ethods of energy use and alternative technology to m easure the efficiency o f energy use and to predict well in advance th e dem ands th a t growth of settlem ents will m ake on global energy resources. C ontem porary shortages and uncertainties in supply of energy clearly dem and a further,

m ore th oro ugh , understanding of how m uch energy is required to operate essential services at th e minimal level, for exam ple, food supply, w ater supply, basic m obility and health care services.

The emphasis th ro u g h o u t this paper has been on stabilizing the supply of energy, searching o u t feasible alternative energy sources and com m enting on potential energy savings in th e system . This emphasis m ust n o t be taken to suggest either th a t Hong Kong is in need of m ore energy or th a t its present level of energy consum ption is optim al. Indeed, there is no evidence to sug­ gest th a t a higher per capita consum ption will solve th e pressing social problem s o f housing, health, poverty and so on. The data presented here is in fact

being used in association with additional inform ation to te st th e hypothesis th a t m any contem p orary problem s in Hong Kong relate directly to th e use of either to o m uch energy or th e use of existing energy supplies inappropriately, thereby generating air, w ater and noise pollution and inad eq uate public transport.

Research of this kind can hopefully con tribute to th e developm ent o f sen­ sible energy econom ics through conservation and recycling, perhaps intro- ducting a m ore stable era of energy use to urban settlem ents such as Hong Kong.