Método cuantitativo para determinar la eficiencia de los recursos

The Philippines is selected as a context country for the case study research based on five simple criteria: 1) the case is based in a low- or a lower middle-income nation in Southeast Asia; 2) the nation is undergoing urbanization; 3) the nation has informal settlements or slums in its urban areas; 4) the urban population is vulnerable to both current climatic hazard events and future climate change; and 5) there is active settlement development work that preferably incorporates climate change among the urban poor. Additional factors include an openness of government to foreign research, availability of government documents in English and existing connections with  Filipino’s  involved in settlement development planning.

The   Philippines   is   a   ‘lower   middle-income   nation’   (Bank, 2011a) and is located in Southeast   Asia   “between   the   Philippine   Sea   and   the   South   China   Sea,   east   of   Vietnam”   and   south   of  Taiwan (CIA, 2011; see Figures 4 and 5). The Philippines archipelago consists of 7,107 islands and has a total area of 300,000 km², including 1,830 km² of  water.    “Only  800  of  [these  islands]  are  permanently  settled” and they are defined by three prominent island groups: Luzon (north), Visayas (central), and Mindanao (south) (Ibid.; Santiago, 1998, p. 104). As   of   2010,   the   Philippines’  

population was just over 94 million with an annual increase of 2 per cent since 2008 (ADB, 2011). The urban population percentage has  grown  remarkably  from  “24  per   cent   in   1948   and   42   per   cent   in   1989”   and   is   now   approximately   65.7   per   cent⁸ equivalent to a staggering 61.76 million people of the national population (Santiago, 1998, p. 105). According to the World Bank (2011b) “between   1960   to   1995,   the   Philippines had one of the highest rates of urban growth in the developing world”  at   around 5 per cent, and although this has now slowed to an estimated urbanization rate of 2.3 per cent per year, there are still areas of rapid urbanization – as high as 10 per

8 This percentage is somewhat conflicting to data provided by CIA (2011) and World Bank (2007), which quote that the urban population is 49% and 52% of the total population, respectively. Nevertheless the ADB data is used here due to its speciality focus on Southeast Asia compared to CIA and The World Bank.

cent per year – “in peri urban areas of Metro Manila such as Dasmarinas, Cavite and Santa  Rosa,  Laguna”  (ADB, 2011; Bank, 2007, 2011b).

Figure 4. (Left) Map of Philippines

Figure 5. (Right) Location of Philippines in relation to China and Indonesia Source: CIA (2011)

The urban poverty rate in the Philippines is around 20 per cent of the urban national population, which is slightly lower than rural areas⁹. However, the number of urban inhabitants  “living  in  substandard  (slum  or  squatter)  housing”  equals  “about  double   the   poverty   rate,   i.e.   around   40   per   cent”   or   over   24   million   people¹⁰ (Ibid., p. 1).

Such serious shelter issues – principally a lack of durable housing – are especially prevalent in large urban areas like Metro Manila, Davao and Cebu and are

9 Caution must be taken when quoting these poverty statistics, which depend upon largely economically-derived poverty lines and which miss out many social factors of poverty that may in fact be greater in urban areas. See Satterthwaite.   D.   (2004),   ‘The   underestimation   of   urban   poverty   in   low- and middle-income nations’,   Poverty Reduction in Urban Areas Series Working Paper 14, London: IIED, pp. 71.

10 This is a moderate level of slum prevalence compared to the rest of Asia (UN-Habitat, 2008, p. 112).

CHINA

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

experienced by both the urban poor and lower-middle classes (Bank, 2007; UN-Habitat, 2008).

In relation to climatic and non-climatic hazards and natural disasters, the Philippines experiences a wide range, including: floods, storm surges, drought, earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, and typhoons. These are caused by its geographic location on the Pacific Ring of Fire and next to the Western Pacific Ocean, and its topographic form creating an extensive coastline totaling over 36,000 km. Both of these features create  the  Philippines’  tropical maritime climate that has two monsoon seasons: the northeast monsoon (November to April) and the southwest monsoon (May to October) and a typhoon season between June and November (CIA, 2011).

Specifically, being located on the Western Pacific Typhoon belt, the Philippines usually is affected by an average 15 cyclonic storms, and hit by five to six of these, every year (Ibid.). Thus, together with Bangladesh, India and Vietnam, the Philippines is listed as having faced serious climate risks over the past decade with cumulative losses averaging nearly US$ 20 billion (ADB, 2009).

In addition to climate risks based on current climate patterns, the Philippines together with   other   countries  in  the   Southeast   Asia   Region  are   among   those   nations  “highly   vulnerable  to  climate  change”.    “With  only  3.3%  of  the  world’s  land  mass  and  more   than   11%   of   the   world’s   coastline”   the   nations   of   Southeast   Asia   are   “highly   vulnerable to climate impacts from flooding, sea-level   rise,   and   cyclones”.   (ADB, 2009, p. 49) This  is  particular  for  the  Philippines  due  to  its  “low-lying  archipelagic”  

form.     Furthermore,   “the   incidence   of   vector-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses”   is   predicted   to   increase   and,   to   exacerbate   these   impacts   of   expected   climate change, Southeast Asia (including the Philippines) has been identified as having  low  adaptive  capacity  to  respond.  ”  (Ibid.)

Despite this, climate change issues have been integrated into the sustainable development   agenda   since   the   late   1990s   and   the   Philippine   government   “has  

implemented   a   series   of   capacity   building   programs   nationwide”.     Specifically,   the   Philippine Climate Change Response Action Plan was released in 2007, and the Presidential Task Force   on   Climate   Change   was   established  in   2008  “to   coordinate   responses   between   various   government   agencies”   (ADB, 2009, p. 50). These are discussed in more detail in Chapter 5. Nevertheless the effects of the 2007 Action Plan to support climate change response among the urban poor is undocumented in the literature.

Furthermore, in response to both the lack of durable and adequate housing for a high proportion of the urban population and the frequent damage done to housing by natural disasters, specifically monsoon floods and typhoons, there are many settlement development programmes led both by government and NGOs to repair and to build adequate housing for urban inhabitants currently living in slums. Some of these are also integrating climate change response into their designs.

2.6.1 Metropolitan Manila

Metropolitan (Metro) Manila is a low-lying coastal urban agglomeration in Luzon and by far the largest in the Philippines. It subsumes 16 cities and 1 municipality (one of which is the City of Manila)¹¹ and has a total population of over 12 million, equivalent to approximately 20 per cent of the national urban population. Metro Manila, and Quezon City in particular, are selected as the context urban areas for the case study research within the Philippines based on the fact that as the National Capital Region (NCR) Metro Manila is an entry point for research and donor-led programmes on climate change adaptation. Also within Metro Manila Quezon City has the largest population of 2.96 million (as of 2010) together with the highest population of urban poor residents and informal settlers and subsequently is a base for many settlement development programmes (City, 2013; NSO, 2008).

11 Metropolitan Manila includes the following 16 cities and 1 municipality: City of Manila, Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas, Pasay, Pasig, Parañaque, Quezon, San Juan, Taguig, Valenzuela and the Municipality of Pateros.

In terms of projected climate change impacts in Metro Manila, local average temperature is expected to rise by 1.8ºC and annual rainfall to increase by 14 percent by the year 2050 under A1FI conditions. Together with sea-level rise and more frequent and/or intense cyclones, these are expected to cause intensified flooding (and related health risks linked to pathogens in floodwaters) and storm surges across the metropolis. (Muto, Morishita, & Syson, 2010) Furthermore, together with rapid urbanization and a gamut of development issues (including poor drainage and inadequate housing supply; see Section 5.1), Metro Manila is also particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its physical location. With Manila Bay to the west, Laguna de Bay (a large lake) to the southeast and embraced by two river systems, the metropolis is consequently very prone to flooding¹², especially during the monsoon period (May to October) when typhoons usually hit the Philippines (Ibid.).