Therefore, development objectives should be specified in concrete, quanti- tative targets as socio-economic and demographic outcomes. For example, a principal objective may be to raise the overall level of employment. Educated youth unemployment may be another problem area such that a development objective may be to raise the growth of employment of teenagers. The suc- cess of such targeted goals to raise the activity rates of vulnerable social and demographic groups will enhance the goal of equal distribution of income. If demographic variables and outcomes are to be integrated in the planning process, a 5-year development planning time horizon should be employed. The integration process must entail a planning approach whereby a long- term perspective plan is first formulated which takes full account of broad- ly defined socio-economic and demographic interrelationships (as in Figure 6.2) and then formulates short- to medium-term plans consistent with this overall long-term perspective. Short to medium gains can then be assessed in terms of their long-term impact on the likely attainment of the development objectives.
The demographic processes of fertility, mortality, and migration determine the size, structure, and spatial distribution of the population (Table 6.3). The resulting demographic outcomes in turn affect the operation of socio-eco- nomic processes and help to determine the level of savings, investment, land and labour utilization, productivity, level of consumption of goods and ser- vices, public expenditure, and the amount of international trade and finance. For example, where fertility is high and population growth rapid, the result- ing high rate of dependency is likely to lead to low savings and investment, particularly in more productive sectors, which will be shut out by the need to invest in social sectors. Population pressure on land and a rapidly growing
515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018
Processed on: 30-1-2018 PDF page: 94PDF page: 94PDF page: 94PDF page: 94
94
labour force imply low land and labour productivity and low wages. These, in turn, will help to determine the nature of the country’s comparative ad- vantage in labour-intensive goods for export and its need to import essential capital goods and equipment (Herrinet al. 1986).
Table 6.3
Integration of population variables in developing planning
Population and related policies 1. Population process • Fertility • Mortality • Migration • Urbanization 2. Population out- comes • Population size and growth • Age–sex struc- ture • Spatial distri- bution Desired so- cio-economic demographic outcomes Economic and social policies 3. Social econom- ic development process • Consumption of goods and services (food, health, educa- tion, housing, etc.) • Savings and investment • Human capital investment (labour) • Physical capital utilization (land, capital, technology) 4. Social economic development out- comes • Income/in- come distribu- tion • Employment • Educational status • Health/nutri- tional status • Environmental quality, etc. Development objectives
Source: Modified from Herri et al.(1989)
These socio-economic processes determine the socio-economic outcomes in terms of the level and type of output of goods and services, the level of remuneration and employment, education enrolments, health and nutrition status, environmental quality, and so on. And the circle is completed by these socio-economic outcomes in turn affecting and determining the basic demo-
515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018
Processed on: 30-1-2018 PDF page: 95PDF page: 95PDF page: 95PDF page: 95 95
graphic processes where we started. For example, low female education and participation in the modern urban sector of the economy suggest women’s roles may remain traditional in some contexts, a situation conducive to con- tinuing high fertility and low female status in society.
The identification and implementation of the set of development policies which affect the development outcome are quite important. Thus, policies must be formulated and implemented in a comprehensive and consistent, and not isolated, manner. Policies pursued in isolation will reduce the chanc- es of achieving a country’s overall long-term development objectives. For ex- ample, policies to reduce mortality 40 or more years ago were successful in the short term, yet resulted in rapid population growth in the decades that followed. This made it difficult for governments to meet the social needs for more schools, teachers, hospitals, drugs, and medical personnel, thus mak- ing the early gains in life expectancy and mortality reduction difficult to sus- tain over the longer term. Post-independence industrialization policies fo- cused new activities in the capital cities of Africa, leading to continued urban migration, squatter settlements, growing urban unemployment and under- employment, and concomitant social problems.
The identification and implementation of the set of development policies which affect the development outcome are quite important. Thus, policies must be formulated and implemented in a comprehensive and consistent, and not isolated, manner. Policies pursued in isolation will reduce the chanc- es of achieving a country’s overall long-term development objectives. For ex- ample, policies to reduce mortality 40 or more years ago were successful in the short term, yet resulted in rapid population growth in the decades that followed. This made it difficult for governments to meet the social needs for more schools, teachers, hospitals, drugs, and medical personnel, thus mak- ing the early gains in life expectancy and mortality reduction difficult to sus- tain over the longer term. Post-independence industrialization policies fo- cused new activities in the capital cities of Africa, leading to continued urban migration, squatter settlements, growing urban unemployment and under- employment, and concomitant social problems.
In planning, these issues are frequently encountered, particularly the issue of rural–urban migration that results in a breakdown of traditional values which have yet to be replaced by an appropriate set of modern values.
515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018
Processed on: 30-1-2018 PDF page: 96PDF page: 96PDF page: 96PDF page: 96
96
6.8 The National Population Policy
Tanzania adopted the National Population Policy in 1992. The principal ob- jective of the population policy is to reinforce national development through harmonizing population trends with the development of other national re- sources in order to improve the quality of life of Tanzanians. This had to be achieved through making population issues the basis of national develop- ment planning.
As a consequence, Tanzania’s planning system had to make population a key element in socio-economic development planning, through the integration of population variables (fertility, mortality, and migration) in development plans. In this context, integration means including in development plans measures to achieve development objectives through programmes and ac- tions that will influence demographic variables within a given period. The en- visaged planning institutional structure had the capacity to coordinate and to evaluate the national population policy programme of implementation (URT 1995). Furthermore, in June 1999, the government unveiled a new develop- ment vision known as the Tanzania Development Vision 2025.
The revised National Population Policy (2006) has the goal of coordinating and influencing other policies, strategies, and programmes that ensure sus- tainable development of the population and promote gender equality and the empowerment of women. The policy is implemented through a multi-sec- toral and multi-dimensional, integrated approach. In this regard, the govern- ment collaborates with NGOs, the private sector, communities, and various agencies in implementing the policy. Indeed, individuals, political parties, and other organized groups in civil society are expected to play an active role to ensure the attainment of policy goals and objectives. The policy, therefore, sets out guidelines for addressing population issues in an integrated manner. It thus recognizes the linkages between population dynamics and quality of life on the one hand, and environmental protection and sustainable develop- ment on the other. Its implementation should provide a new dimension to development programmes by ensuring that population issues are appropri- ately addressed
Tanzania’s population policy is silent on the number of children a couple should have. Some cultures and religions in Tanzania are sceptical on the issue of limiting the number of children. There are beliefs that counting chil- dren may cause death, and there are religious concerns that the world has to be filled. Therefore, the policy is careful to not infringe on people’s beliefs
515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC 515886-L-bw-ASC Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018 Processed on: 30-1-2018
Processed on: 30-1-2018 PDF page: 97PDF page: 97PDF page: 97PDF page: 97 97
and concerns. However, one thing must be noted: the successful implemen- tation of a population policy depends very much on other sectoral policies. For example, the employment policy recognizes, for the purposes of benefits, only four children for employed people. This implies that it is only employ- ees, who are basically few in number, who are restricted with the number of children they should have.
6.9 Formulating a population policy
This section is intended to orient practically a development planner if he/ she is thinking of developing a population policy in a particular area together with other stakeholders. There are two important things bear in mind: the qualities of a good population policy, and following clear steps in the formu- lation of a population policy.
6.9.1 Qualities of a good population policy
A good population policy requires a number of elements. It should aim to do the following:
1. Have clearly defined objectives and strategies in order to be effectively