Motivos o causas de la violencia escolar

Effects of the completion of the internal market to SMEs can not be isolated from other trends and influences, both in the EC and on the global playing field. Several important trends in the macro-economic development and the demography of the member states, and in technology and internationalization in general are discussed in the next Chapter. Trends in world economy that should be mentioned here are the shifts in international labour division and the emerging NICs, the reaction of other global players leading to economic integration elsewhere (example: see North American Free Trade Association NAFTA), the development of world trade relations (example: GATT-agreements), etc.

Some possible scenarios for world economic development are elaborated in a recent study: the global gravity centre shifting to Asia, European Renaissance as a result of policy-led integration, combined with inclusion of EFTA and Eastern European countries, or global crisis, with antagonistic and protectionist blocks dominating the global field2.

Predicting what will happen in the medium term as a result of the completion of the internal market is subject to the condition ’all other things being equal’. But of course they are not. What really happens is subject to a number of other influences, internal and external to the European Community.

In some cases it is hard to find indications or arguments as to nature and direction of these influences. However, some important recent developments with an obvious impact on the integration process over the medium term are briefly discussed below.

1 Technology and the Economy, OECD, Paris 1992). See pages 172-174, in particular the reference to R. Baldwin on page 173.

2 'Scanning the future. A long-term scenario study of the world economy 1990-2015’. Central Planning Bureau CPB, The Hague 1992.

- Delay of EC-directives taking effect: some of them will be put (fully) into operation only in the medium term. This applies for example to the energy and telecommunication market, and to the Monetary Union. In these cases, integration effects other than anticipating new market conditions will only become clear in the medium and the long term (ic. after the year 2000) - The lack of monetary integration became clear in monetary imbalances like

the devaluation of some member states’ currencies. Furthermore, the fact that only a few countries meet the Maastricht Treaty’s requirements for entering the Monetary Union, and especially that there is by no means a clear trend toward an increasing number of applicants for such a union. This will exert influence on the monetary stability within the European Community in the near future

- Increasing ’Euro-scepticism’ with governments and constituents in a number of member states, that may lead to delays in implementing the Maastricht Treaty. The result of the Danish and French referendums, and the special conditions stipulated by and granted to the UK in the same Treaty are indications of this scepticism. Sharp discussions have also focused on ’subsidiarity’, the competency of European versus national authority, as well as criticism of the EC’s democratic quality and (alleged lack of attention to) social policy. A more optimistic view with respect to this scepticism is the observation that alternating periods of progress and set-backs are characte­ ristic for this extremely complex integration process, which began in 1957. The historical evidence, however, suggests a net positive effect with successively higher levels of integration after each set-back1.

- Existing non-tariff barriers to free intra-EC trade may be replaced with new ones, for example as a result of different national environmental policies. Delegation of national authority to regional and local levels may raise new non-tariff barriers as well.

- The EC will be extended to include EFTA-members like Sweden and Austria. This implies adding to a situation that is already complex.

- Trade relations with Eastern Europe and possible labour migration from these countries on the one hand, and economic relations with the USA/NAFTA and Japan on the other are subject to rapid changes as well. As for Eastern Europe, a two-sided development is emerging: some countries developing fast toward a market-economy, others more or less stagnating. The former will induce increasing competition, and accelerate a restructuring of economic activities in the European Community, particularly affecting bulk and relatively low value added products like steel, textiles and clothing, agricultural products

1 Mr. Willy de Clercq, former Belgian Secretary of State and mem ber of the European Commission in a speech on December 18, 1992.

and the like. This could seriously affect certain regions witin the European Community, particularly in the Southern member states. Continued stagnation of the Eastern part of Europe, however, may cause substantial migration into the Community.

- Solving national economic problems is likely to have a higher priority during less favourable economic conditions. This applies to the present declining stage of the business cycle in most member states1, and to the unanticipated costs of integrating the former DDR into Germany.

- Last, but not least, the completion of the internal market is a major influence on the world economic system, provoking reactions from other economic blocks. These reactions range from strategic investments in order to obtain bridge-heads within the European Community to creating countervailing powers like NAFTA.