The Ministry of Gender Equality and Child Welfare notes that around 140 000 children in Namibia under the age of fifteen are registered as orphans with the Ministry (quoted from Die Republikein, May 2010). It is estimated that Namibia will have over 250 000 orphans by 2021 (Hop- wood, Hunter & Kellner 2007:10). This potential figure should be com- pared with a population size of only 2,3 million people. They further quote the Ministry of Health and Social Services as projecting an in- creased morbidity and mortality on young adults, with 38% of boys and 48% of girls who are assumed to be HIV negative on their 15th birthday dying before they reach their 40th birthday” (ibid.). “The HIV/AIDS epidemic has already reduced the average life span of a newborn Namib- ian by more than a decade” (National Planning Commission 2004:25). This report further notes that the epidemic has “a particularly disturbing impact on children” (ibid.).
The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is immense on the Namibian society. The 2008 National HIV Sentinel Survey (p. 28) in Namibia indi- cates that the highest age specific prevalence rate was observed in the age group 30-34. These are the young adults who are or should become economically active and who normally already have children. It is further observed that progress towards preventing or slowing down HIV infec- tion in the age group 25 to 44 is slow. (See also the Ministry of Health and Social Services report of 2008b:5). In this group the vulnerability of particularly young women stands out. A 2009 report of the Ministry of Health and Social Services notes the following persons as those particu- larly vulnerable to HIV infection:
1. Young, educated, employed and urban women who are least likely to abstain from sexual relations if not married, and most likely to have multiple partners, and have sexual relations under the influence of alcohol. These women, however, are also most likely to use con-
doms, although the extent to which this counters their risk is un- clear. They also represent a fairly small group of women.
2. Young married and cohabitating women, particularly the poor and uneducated ones who are mainly exposed to risk through their spouses, and who are far less likely to use condoms or be able to ne- gotiate sexual relations.
The prognosis that many of these people will die whilst economically active and having children, is good. The mortality rates of adults and children in Southern Africa are discussed by Haacker (2010:40-44) in an article on the development impact and policy challenges regarding HIV/AIDS, and see the Ministry of Health and Social Services Report of 2008b (p. 5) that says: “Despite the rollout of ARVs the number of people dying of AIDS related causes will continue to grow.” The same report mentions that there are about 39 new infections per day in Namibia and the number of people in need of ART treatment will grow from 69 500 to 114 500 by 2012/2013. The report does mention, though, that there is a decline in HIV/AIDS related deaths in Namibia because of the roll out of ARV’s. Nevertheless, in specific places, such as Katima Mulilo in the North of Namibia, the prevalence rate for HIV/AIDS is as high as 31,7%. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS in Namibia will increase to 247 000 in 2012, which represents almost one eighth of the population (given that the number of people in Namibia stays more or less the same). (Prognosis of the Ministry of Health and Social Services 2008:21).
Hopwood, Hunter and Kellner (2007:14) indicate that great pressure will be created by the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the extended family support system as the first impact will be felt on the household level and then will have an effect on the community and on the economy. In this situa- tion, children are normally the first to suffer. They are disrupted because of the death of one or both parents. In Namibia, the Caprivi region has a percentage of Orphaned and Vulnerable Children (OVC’s) as high as 42%, with at least five other regions with a percentage well over 30%. The percentage of the OVC’s in Namibia in the age group 15-17 is 40%. (See the Democratic and Health Survey (DHS) of 2006-07:257).
Normally, OVC’s are taken up by the extended family, but mostly by their grandparents. The 2004 UNAIDS Report notes that orphans living with their grandparents have increased to 61% by 2000, whereas 28% live with relatives. Whilst having contact with siblings is very important,
55% of orphaned children in Namibia do not live with all their siblings under the age of 18.
“Families are the best hope for the care of orphaned and vulnerable children, but they require support from outside sources” (DHS 2006- 07:263). The UNICEF 2005 report specifically mention faith-based or- ganisations as part of a wider support system. The problem is that exter- nal support is not readily available and only 17% of OVC’s live in house- holds that do receive external support.
HIV/AIDS may be the main contributor to the orphan crisis in Namibia and therefore also the main cause for the fact that there are so many dysfunctional families in the country but there are, of course, driving factors causing and upholding the epidemic in Namibia. The most per- tinent of these is the situation of extreme poverty in the country even though the country is classified as lower-middle income country. This affects the OVC’s in the country severely, since many of them are taken up in families which are falling in the categories of poor to severely poor. A brief explanation of the situation in Namibia follows below.